The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Nov. 9 raised its estimates for corn production and yields but lowered the soybean production and yield forecast slightly in its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports.
Corn production for grain is now forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 43 million bushels, or less than 1 percent, from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from 2020. Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, corn yields are expected to average a record 177.0 bushels/acre, up 0.5 bushel from the previous forecast and up 5.6 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 85.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 3 percent from the previous year.
USDA also raised its corn used for ethanol estimate by 50 million bushels, and lowered corn ending stocks by 7 million bushels with use rising slightly more than supply. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.
Soybean production is now projected at 4.42 billion bushels, down 23 million bushels, or 1 percent, from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from last year. Soybean yields are expected to average 51.2 bushels/acre, down 0.3 bushel from the previous forecast, with lower yields in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas accounting for most of the change in production. Area harvested for beans in the U.S. is forecast at 86.4 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from the previous year.
With use falling more than supply, USDA raised soybean ending stocks by 20 million bushels from last month, with the U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 now projected at $12.10 per bushel, down 25 cents.
All cotton production is forecast at 18.2 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 25 percent from 2020. Cotton yields are expected to average 880 pounds/acre, up 9 pounds from the previous forecast and up 33 pounds from 2020. All cotton area harvested is estimated at 9.92 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 20 percent from 2020.
U.S. ending stocks for cotton were raised 200,000 bales, to 3.4 million, while the projected marketing-year average price received by upland producers remained unchanged at 90 cents/pound, a 36 percent year-over-year increase.
USDA said the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, reduced exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Wheat exports fell 15 million bushels, to 860 million, while projected 2021/22 ending stocks were raised slightly to 583 million bushels, up 3 million from last month’s forecast but still the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2007/08. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price for wheat was raised $0.20, to $6.90/bushel.