In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on May 10, USDA said corn production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 14.8 billion bushels, up 2.4 billion from 2011/12. USDA attributed the boost to a projected 5.1 million acre increase in harvested area, an early start to planting and emergence, and higher expected yields, which are projected at a record 166 bushels/acre – 2 bushels above the 1990-2010 trend.
The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $4.20-$5.00 per bushel, down sharply from the 2011/12 record projected at $5.95- $6.25 per bushel. USDA said that despite the lowest expected carry-in in 16 years, corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 15.7 billion bushels, up 2.2 billion from 2011/12. Total U.S. corn use for 2012/13 is projected up 9 percent from 2011/12 on higher feed and residual disappearance, increased use for sweeteners and starch, and larger exports. Projected corn use for ethanol is unchanged on the year as weak gasoline consumption limits domestic blending opportunities, USDA said.
Citing abundant domestic supplies, lower prices, and higher expected China demand, USDA said corn exports for 2012/13 are projected 200 million bushels higher than in 2011/12. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 1.9 billion bushels, up 1 billion bushels from the current year projection. Projected corn ending stocks for 2011/12 were raised 50 million bushels to 851 million, with lower expected June-August feed and residual disappearance.
USDA’s outlook for the 2012/13 U.S. wheat crop is also for larger supplies, heavier use, and lower prices. All wheat production is projected at 2,245 million bushels, up 12 percent from last year’s weather-impacted crop and the highest since 2008/09. The all wheat yield, projected at 45.7 bushels per acre, is up 2 bushels from last year, but 0.6 bushels below the 2010/11 level. U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected at 3,133 million bushels, up 5 percent from 2011/12.
The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $5.50-$6.70 per bushel, down significantly from the record $7.25 per bushel projected for 2011/12.
The forecast for 2012/13 winter wheat production is up 13 percent to 1.69 billion bushels, with a record yield of 47.6 bushels/acre projected, up 1.4 bushels from last year. USDA attributed the yield and production increases to a recovery for the hard red winter wheat crop in the Central and Southern Plains after last year’s drought. Hard red winter wheat production, projected at 1.03 billion bushels, is up a full 32 percent from 2011.
USDA said the large year-to-year increase in winter wheat production and attractive prices for wheat relative to corn are expected to raise summer wheat feeding. Total U.S. wheat use for 2012/13 is projected up 8 percent year-to-year on higher expected domestic use and exports. U.S. wheat exports for 2012/13 are projected at 1,150 million bushels, with larger supplies, more competitive prices, and an early expected start to this year’s harvest opening the door to higher demand for U.S. wheat during the coming months.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2 percent lower on the year, as a 23.8 million ton reduction in foreign production offsets the increase in U.S. output. U.S. ending wheat stocks are projected at 735 million bushels for 2012/13, down 33 million from 2011/12 and 241 million below 2009/10.
The WASDE report projects soybean production at 3.205 billion bushels, up from the 2011 crop as higher yields more than offset lower harvested area. Harvested soybean area is projected at 73 million acres, and soybean yields are projected at 43.9 bushels/acre, up 2.4 bushels from 2011. With beginning stocks projected at 210 million bushels, 2012/13 soybean supplies are projected at 3.43 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2011