The USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report projects planted corn acreage this year at 89.5 million acres, down 4 percent, or 3.87 million acres, from last year’s 93.4 million acres, and significantly lower than the 92 million acres estimate that USDA gave at its Feb. 24-25, 2022, Agricultural Outlook Forum (GM March 4, p. 25).
USDA said corn acreage decreases from last year of 200,000 or more are expected in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Record-high corn acreage is expected in Nevada and South Dakota, while record low acreage is expected in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.
A drop in U.S. corn acreage was anticipated by many analysts due to the surge in fertilizer costs. A Green Markets survey of retail fertilizer prices in the Midwest in early March showed anhydrous ammonia up nearly 160 percent from last year at this time, urea up 104 percent, DAP up 55 percent, and potash up 104 percent.
Input costs are also spiking for fuel, herbicides, and machinery. A survey conducted by Bloomberg in advance of the report’s release estimated that some two million acres would shift from corn to soybeans, despite prices for both crops jumping 22 percent this year due to booming global demand and limited supplies.
After the report’s release, corn futures for May delivery in Chicago rose 3.4 percent, to $7.63 a bushel, while soybeans dropped and benchmark wheat rose.
“Corn acres below 90 million this year indicates the corn supply crunch – and higher prices – will extend into 2023 and support strong nitrogen demand next year,” said Alexis Maxwell, Green Markets Research Director.
Soybean planted area for 2022 is estimated at a record 91.0 million acres, up 4 percent from last year’s 87.2 million acres and substantially higher than the 88 million acres projected in February. According to Bloomberg, soybean acres have eclipsed corn only twice before in almost a century of record keeping.
Planted acreage intentions for soybeans are up or unchanged in 24 of the 29 estimating states, USDA said, with increases of 250,000 acres or more anticipated in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Tennessee.
The largest soybean acreage increases are expected in Illinois and Missouri, where producers in each state intend to plant 400,000 more acres than in 2021. If realized, the planted soybean area in Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin would be the largest on record, USDA noted.
The switch from corn to soybeans will free up much-needed fertilizer tons in the system. Based on 2018 application rates as reported in a USDA Chemical Use Survey and assuming an acre-for-acre shift from corn to soy, 274,000 tons of nitrogen, 65,000 tons of phosphates, and 40,500 tons of potassium fertilizer will be freed up in the U.S. system during the course of the growing season.
All wheat planted area for 2022 is estimated at 47.4 million acres, up 1 percent from last year’s 46.7 million acres, but down slightly from the February estimate of 48 million acres. USDA said this represents the fifth lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919.
Winter wheat planted area, at 34.2 million acres, is down less than 1 percent from the previous estimate, but up 2 percent from last year. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2022 is expected to total 11.2 million acres, down 2 percent from 2021, while durum wheat is expected to total 1.92 million acres for 2022, up 17 percent from last year.
All cotton planted area for 2022 is expected to total 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year, with the largest acreage increase anticipated in Texas. Area planted to rice in 2022 is expected to total 2.45 million acres, down 3 percent from 2021.
As for other crops, USDA said growers intend to plant 6.21 million acres of sorghum in 2022, down 15 percent from last year; 2.55 million acres of oats, down less than 1 percent from 2021 and the second lowest on record; 2.94 million acres of barley, up 11 percent from last year; and 2.16 million acres of canola, up less than 1 percent from 2021.
USDA also released the quarterly Grain Stocks report on March 31. Compared with last year at this time, total corn stocks were estimated at 7.85 billion bushels, up 2 percent; soybeans at 1.93 billion bushels, up 24 percent; wheat at 1.02 billion bushels, down 22 percent; and durum wheat at 29.7 million bushels, down 30 percent.