With several major fertilizer companies expecting to release first-quarter earnings during the week of May 4, Wall Street analysts surveyed by Bloomberg see lower prices and earnings and increased volumes, at least for three of the majors reporting next week – CF Industries Holdings Inc., Nutrien Ltd., and The Mosaic Co.
CF will see a 9 percent increase in first-quarter sales volumes, according to the analyst average, to 4.46 million st, up from the year-ago 4.1 million st. The year-ago quarter reflected the early start of the 2019 water-logged spring season. All major product categories – except Other, which includes DEF and lower quantity nitrogen-based products – are expected to see volume increases. Likewise, all products except Other are expected to report a reduction in average selling prices.
The good news for CF is that it is still expected to be in the black, with net income of $53 million on revenues of $917 million, though this would be down from the year-ago $90 million and $1 billion, respectively.
Analysts expect Nutrien’s Retail segment to post a 20 percent increase in volumes during the first quarter. Wholesale Nitrogen volumes – for all categories – are also expected to see an uptick. Phosphate volumes are expected to be up a bit, with a decrease in Potash. Average realized prices in all Nutrien sectors are expected to be off.
The analyst consensus is that Nutrien will dip into the red in the first quarter to $6.5 million on net sales of $3.45 billion, versus the year-ago positive $41 million and $3.7 billion, respectively.
At Mosaic, analysts expect Phosphate and Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes to be up, with Potash down slightly. Analysts pegged the average realized DAP price at $280/mt and MOP at $211.5/mt. NOLA DAP prices sank to as low as $235-$240/st in December, the lowest price since 2006, according to the Green Markets database. After bottoming they began to inch back up during the first-quarter after Mosaic and OCP announced production cuts.
Analysts project a Mosaic loss of $41 million on revenues of $1.64 billion, down from the year-ago net income of $130.8 million and $1.9 billion, respectively.
Other major players expected to release earnings within the next week include The Andersons Inc., Compass Minerals, CVR Partners LP, Intrepid Potash Inc., and LSB Industries Inc.
| CF Industries | 1Q-20 | 1Q-19 Actual |
| Revenue ($ millions) | 917 | 1,000 |
| Net Income | 53 | 90 |
| Total Sales Volumes (000 st) | 4,457 | 4,090 |
| Ammonia | 770 | 606 |
| Gran Urea | 1,263 | 1,184 |
| UAN | 1,319 | 1,268 |
| AN | 509 | 501 |
| Other | 522 | 528 |
| Avg Selling Prices ($/st) | ||
| Ammonia | 265 | 309 |
| Gran Urea | 244 | 290 |
| UAN | 159 | 202 |
| AN | 231 | 253 |
| Other | 171 | 167 |
| Nutrien | 1Q-20 | 1Q-19 Actual |
| Net Sales ($ millions) | 3,453 | 3,700 |
| Net Income | (6.5) | 41 |
| Sales Volumes (000 mt) | ||
| Retail Crop Nutrient | 1,888 | 1,579 |
| Potash | 2,807 | 2,920 |
| Nitrogen | 2,387 | 2,239 |
| Ammonia | 723 | 644 |
| Urea | 718 | 647 |
| UAN, Nitrate, Sulfate | 987 | 948 |
| Phosphate | 719 | 695 |
| Average Realized Prices ($/mt) | ||
| Retail Crop Nutrient | 404 | 435 |
| Potash | 182 | 238 |
| Nitrogen | 227 | 244 |
| Ammonia | 228 | 252 |
| Urea | 294 | 330 |
| UAN, Nitrate, Sulfate | 147 | 180 |
| Phosphate | 405 | 459 |
| Mosaic | 1Q-20 | 1Q-19 Actual |
| Revenue ($ millions) | 1,642 | 1,900 |
| Net Income | (41.0) | 130.8 |
| Phosphate Shipments* | 1,892 | 1,800 |
| DAP/MAP | 1,212 | 1,100 |
| Potash Shipments | 1,819 | 1,900 |
| Mosaic Fertilizantes Shipments | 1,769 | 1,500 |
| Average Realized Prices ($/mt) | ||
| DAP | 280 | 442 |
| MOP | 211.5 | 271 |
*Finished