AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf: First half February Tampa was done last week by at least two suppliers – PotashCorp and Yara last week at the $360/mt DEL mark, up $10/mt. In fact, Yara went ahead and did the whole month at that number. In the meantime, the last done on the NOLA barge market is reported at $312-$315/st FOB.
While Trinidad gas curtailments have not had a big impact, if any, on producers so far, they are expected to hang over producer heads through February, say sources. Even so, the curtailments are put at only 15 percent.
Eastern Cornbelt: Ammonia continued to be quoted in the $395-$405/st FOB range. Most sources touted the upper end as the common dealer price for cash or prepay, provided prepay offers were still on the table. Reference levels were reportedly circulating in the $415/st FOB range, depending on supplier and time of delivery.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonia was quoted at $395-$405/st FOB in the region for cash or prepay, up again slightly from last report. A Nebraska source tagged the cash market firmly at the $400/st FOB level in his area, and said most of the spring prepay offers were now off the table.
Southern Plains: Sources reported little new business to test the ammonia market, and one Kansas source said most of the spring prepay offers were now off the table. The regional ammonia market remained in a broad range at $340-$385/st FOB, with the low out of some production locations and the upper number quoted last week as the dealer price FOB Clay Center, Kan.
South Central: Anhydrous ammonia was quoted at $375-$380/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., and roughly $385-$390/st FOB Blytheville. One source said dealer pricing out of Henderson, Ky., is normally $10/st higher than Blytheville, but no current spot or prepay numbers were confirmed out of that location last week.
Pacific Northwest: On Feb. 2, Agrium’s reference price for anhydrous ammonia increased to $460/st truck-DEL in Montana and northern Wyoming, and $475-$495/st DEL in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, with the upper end in northern Idaho and in Washington and Oregon east of the Cascades. Aqua ammonia postings from the company firmed on that date to $124/st FOB Central Ferry and Finley, Wash.
Black Sea: As the global ammonia market tightens, Yuzhnyy producers are upping their price ideas. Sources report that the steady drumbeat of the past month seems to be paying off. Asian sources say the going price is now firmly at $280/mt FOB. There may be a few opportunities for a couple of dollars off, but many observers now say $280/mt FOB is market price.
Yuzhnyy is benefiting from a shortage of material in the Middle East. Sources report that Nitrochem had to go to Yuzhnyy for a cargo to China, Transammonia sold a Yuzhnyy cargo to Sabic, and Nitrochem is looking at Yuzhnyy for a Korea deal.
Driving the market is pressure from the east and west.
Asian sources say the American buyers are becoming more interested in Yuzhnyy tons as natural gas prices increase. Indian buyers continue to draw tons from Middle East producers. Asian demand for fertilizer and industrial use is at near-record high levels.
While the word is that producers are the only ones arguing for the $280/mt FOB price, Asian players say the end of last week showed that $280/mt FOB is beginning to look good for February and early March purchases.
Even as the week ended, sources reported $282/mt FOB done, with more increases coming.
Previous pricing ideas that had prices as low as $270/mt FOB are now considered outdated. The tightening of the market is clearly on the low end of the price scale.
Sources now peg the market at $275-$285/mt FOB.
Middle East: By the close of last week, sources say $330/mt FOB was done. The week started with $300-$320/mt FOB being discussed. Then Transammonia concluded a deal with PIC at $325/mt FOB, and by week’s end $330/mt FOB was the price.
On the heels of the Trammo/PIC deal, Asian sources say either Fertil or Qafco inked a deal with Trammo at the $330/mt FOB level. Others say, however, this is more a rumor than fact.
Still, said one trader, the $330/mt FOB price is wholly believable, because demand is far outstripping supply.
The Indian DAP buyers remain eager to take every ounce of ammonia available. The tons that are being loaded were contracted some time ago. In some cases, said one source, the deals included options for additional tons, and the Indians are calling in those options.
At the same time, Asian buyers are clamoring for more tons as fertilizer and industrial demand is booming.
Finally, supply is off because of the long absence of the Safco 4 plant. The facility was to have been online last year. Contracts that were supposed to have been covered with Safco 4 material were being covered by swaps and other deals worked out by Sabic to ensure its customers remained happy. Now that Safco 4 is online, sources say a portion of the output will go to satisfying customers, and a portion to pay back on the swap deals. One trader noted Safco will be repaying its borrowed tons well into April.
Also putting pressure on the Middle East suppliers is the unexpected shutdown of KPI in Indonesia. Asian buyers who were hoping for cargoes from the joint venture operation are now forced to look elsewhere.
Reportedly, IPCC/Iran declared a force majeure on its shipments. Asian sources are not sure why the force majeure was declared, but they are sure that not only will cargoes be going out, but Iran is looking for tons. Sources say buyers visited each of the Arab Gulf suppliers and were turned down.
Once all the figures are run, said one trader, many traders are in a panic over the situation. Spot tons have been long gone from the area and now even contracts are being filled only after the greatest of difficulties. One observer noted that the current situation is not one of once the right price is mentioned, more tons will be found. Traders and end users are convinced the tons are just not available unless a long-term contract is already in place.
Sources peg the market at $320-$330/mt FOB.
Algeria: The plant at Annaba is reported to be down due to a fire that occurred last week. Sources expect it will take at least four-five weeks to repair.
Asia: The Mitsubishi KPI facility in Indonesia went down unexpectedly on Jan. 27. Sources report small discrepancies in the quality of the product began creeping into the output late last year. Adjustments were tried to prevent a shutdown. Initially, the adjustments were enough to maintain quality, said one source, but the fine-tuning soon became required too often to keep it up. Management reluctantly closed the plant for a major repair session.
Sources familiar with the outlines of the problem said the repairs were needed because new parts were installed during the routine maintenance closure last year. “Apparently,” said one source, “the parts did not work together as well as they hoped.”
The shutdown will cause KPI to fall about 20,000 mt behind its annual projected output. The owners are out looking for tons from other suppliers to make sure all the contracts from KPI are covered.
Sources report Samsung in South Korea is getting ready to call an open tender for ammonia. If the rumors are true, said one observer, this will be the first time Samsung has come into the market in such an open manner.
South Korean buyers had been engaging in quiet closed tenders among their long-term suppliers. With the current shortage of tons in the area, sources say the only thing Samsung can do is make the public call.
At current rates, said one trader, any Korean buyer will end up paying close to $400/mt CFR. Freight from Yuzhnyy is about $100/mt, and with the current price at $280/mt FOB, that puts the landed price in South Korea at $380/mt FOB before any other charges are tacked on.
Purchasing from the Middle East, if tons could be found, would not be much cheaper. Even if tons could be found at the lower end of the current market, one Asian trader noted the landed price from the Middle East would be the same as the price from Yuzhnyy.
Taiwan buyers are at full production and need tons. Sources say the buyers are scouting out cargoes of any size from almost any source.
Japan is expected to increase its imports this year, but only by a slight amount. Problems with some domestic producers and limited infrastructure to handle imports have led a number of companies to come up with innovative ways to get the ammonia they need.
In one case, say sources, a company that has access to a larger import facility will take tons from offshore and sell its usual purchases of domestic material to a buyer with smaller receiving equipment. Traders who might have worked for the second company are said to be working with the larger firm to secure the international tons.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: There was a lot of talk early in the week of granular barge prices stalling, with new deals in the $317-$318/st FOB range. Sources explained this by saying that many warehouses had filled up and that inland product was going to have to move out before additional movement could take place. If this was the case it happened fast, as toward the end of the week other players were reporting new trades of $324-$325/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted at $350-$357/st FOB in the region, with the upper end reported in Ohio. One source there said the terminal price to dealers had firmed $5/st from the previous week’s $352/st FOB level, which in turn was up from $337/st FOB the week before that. There were also reports of urea at the $340/st mark FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, two weeks ago, but that number was not available last week.
Granular urea postings from Agrium firmed on Jan. 29 to $370/st FOB Garrett, Ind., and $375/st rail-DEL in the region. Postings in Michigan moved on that date to $375/st FOB Saginaw, Mich., and $380/st rail-DEL.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was tagged at $350-$355/st FOB range in the region, up slightly from last report. Agrium’s urea postings firmed on Jan. 29 to $365/st FOB Shakopee, Minn., and North Dakota warehouse locations at Alton, Carrington, Colfax, Marion, and Scranton. Rail-DEL postings from the company firmed on that date to $370/st in Minnesota, the Dakotas, and Wisconsin.
Southern Plains: Inclement weather conditions continued to delay topdress movement on winter wheat. Granular urea was quoted at $335-$345 FOB in the region. Sources said Koch reposted urea on Jan. 28 at $335/st FOB Inola, Okla., and $338/st FOB Enid, Okla., but other suppliers were reportedly at the $340/st FOB mark or higher out of those locations. The Houston market for urea was quoted at $340-$345/st FOB last week.
South Central: Granular urea pricing had firmed to $340-$345/st FOB most regional terminals, and dealers were waiting for topdress movement to kick in on winter wheat. Reference prices were quoted as high as $355-$360/st FOB in Kentucky, and $355/st FOB Blytheville, Ark., last week.
Southeast: Granular urea was pegged at $350/st FOB port terminals on the low end, and tons were reportedly limited. Dealer reference prices were reported as high as $360/st FOB Savannah, Ga.
Pacific Northwest: Effective Jan. 29, Agrium’s granular urea postings increased $15/st to $375/st FOB Glade, Wash., Kennewick, Wash., Warden, Wash., and Wilson, Wash.; $362-$367/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming, depending on location; $380/st DEL in southern Idaho and Oregon’s Malheur County, and from the company’s warehouse and plant locations in Alberta and Oregon to points in Washington, northern Nevada, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County; $385st DEL in northern and central Utah; and $390/st DEL in southern Utah.
Middle East: Fertil backed prilled offers into Sri Lanka at a netback of $300/mt FOB bagged or $290-$295/mt FOB bulk, depending on how one counts the bagging costs. Sources say the Fertil offer was aggressive enough to make sure it protected its usual business with the Sri Lankans while providing a new floor for prices.
Even discounting the idea that Sri Lanka is a trapped market, sources say the $290/mt FOB price is about right for the current state of affairs in the Middle East.
Many observers maintain that prills and granular remain at parity, but so far the only business that can be identified with a real price is prilled urea. The granular tons are mostly destined for the U.S. under long-term contracts, with prices that are jealously guarded.
Traders looking to pick up even 3-5,000 mt of granular material were rebuffed by producers.
The main bulk of the granular product produced in the area is being shipped under old contracts or long-term agreements. Sources say nailing down what that material would cost – if any were available – is nearly impossible to confirm. Producers are adamant that granular and prills are at parity. And prills are now at $290/mt FOB.
Many in the industry reject the proposition that the granular tons being shipped today are anywhere near that price. They still look at the last bit of public business from almost two months ago, which puts the price at $270-$280/mt FOB.
One trader said he looks to recent business done by Yara to Thailand at $310/mt CFR. His estimates put the price at $285-$290/mt FOB.
The best bet now, said one observer, is to combine the two ideas. He pegged the granular market at $280-$295/mt FOB.
Prills are a completely different story.
Indian purchases for NPK producers have publicly shown an upward movement in prices. The Sri Lankan tenders confirmed the movement.
While prills are available, sources say the area is hardly awash in the product and the Sri Lanka business confirms the tightness of the market.
What makes the Sri Lanka business even more interesting is that the market is at the cusp of a major set of purchases. India is expected to start serious buying in early March. One source even estimated the first set of inquiries, and possibly a tender call, might come mid-February.
On top of the Indian business will be TCP/Pakistan and a handful of Asian buyers. Sources say once India comes in, the market will skyrocket. One trader noted there appears to be enough business to keep producers happy until the March tenders from India and Pakistan.
There appears to be a steady demand for tons from India for the NPK producers. Sources say this buying should end soon. Originally, players had hoped the gap between the Indian NPK buying and the large tenders to come this spring would be enough to halt the steady increase in prices. Now, however, few have such hopes.
Asian sources peg the prilled market at $290-$295/mt FOB.
Iran/ASSC closes a tender Feb. 5 for 150,000 mt. Sources say the company only took 35,000 mt from its last tender, which was also for 150,000 mt.
The Iranians will need the remaining 115,000 mt from that tender, as well as all 150,000 mt from the upcoming tender, say sources.
Reportedly, the reason ASSC backed off from buying more under the last tender was that it objected to the high prices. One trader noted the company would now have to pay $30-$40/mt more.
Egypt has moved up its price as the global market tightens. Sources say it is now offering its granular tons in the low $300s/mt FOB.
Black Sea: Sources say little material is left in the hands of producers. Traders seem to be running the show on prices right now.
Transammonia reportedly concluded a deal at $290/mt FOB, and other traders holding tons are more than happy to encourage talk of higher prices.
One observer noted that only 40-60,000 mt remain available directly from producers. The remaining tons that will be sold out of Yuzhnyy this month are all in the hands of traders. Sources say very few of those tons have homes designated for them. One player said traders started taking positions in anticipation of the Indian and Pakistan tenders.
Also helping hold up the price are reports that several Central and South American buyers are still looking for tons. One trader noted that while these countries by themselves cannot move the market, in times of a rising market they can provide a psychological boost by helping move out shipments in an otherwise boring period.
With the Transammonia business and past deals taken into account, sources say the spread is now closer to $280-$290/mt FOB.
India: February is expected to start slowly and end with a bang. The buying plans of MMTC and IPL remain the main topic of discussion. The big question is how these buyers will handle their 2007 purchases.
The smart move, say some, is for them to call for equal (more or less) monthly shipments for the rest of the year instead of running a couple of tenders that try to push large quantities into the country in a short time.
The main benefit to the buyers will be less port congestion. Last year – and even still – the port deliveries of urea are being held up because the ports are so backed up that some ships have spent a couple of weeks at anchor.
If the buyers push for many shipments in a short time, one trader noted, offers could end up with large demurrage costs built in. If, however, the shipments are spread out, this cost might be lowered – and even dropped.
The first rumblings of purchase plans are expected by the middle of this month. One bull even predicted the first tender would be called around Feb. 20 for March deliveries. Others are not so sure.
Local media are reporting the Indian government has apparently almost closed out its subsidy debts to urea manufacturers. The debt has been a sore point between the companies and the government, especially because the Indian fiscal year ends this month.
A new level of subsidies will be set for the 2007 purchasing plans. Some sources have reasoned that IPL and MMTC will wait on calling a tender until the fiscal year begins March 1.
Sri Lanka: The tenders by CCF and CFC closed last week, with ETA, backed by Fertil, getting at least three awards. The awarded price came with an estimated netback of $290-$295/mt FOB bulk.
China: The domestic market remains strong as the spring application season nears. Even as the international market price rises, there is little incentive to sell offshore. Sources report that some deals are handled across the border into northern Vietnam, but that other international sales are not in the cards just yet.
Exports for last year were not as high as industry observers had expected. A combination of problems selling to Bangladesh and Vietnam, and difficulties obtaining vessels, kept more urea home than expected.
The sales to Vietnam were spoiled because producer Phu My kept lowering its price to keep imports more expensive.
Chinese urea was heavily offered in the BCIC/Bangladesh tenders during the last quarter of 2006. Delays in awarding the tenders resulted in few sales to that country.
Vietnam: Imports were down significantly last year from previous years. Local media report 2006 imports were at 708,000 mt. January 2007 imports were at 50,000 mt. Sources say that as domestic production increases, demand for imported urea dwindles. At the same time, additional material from Russia and the Middle East sits in bonded warehouses waiting for buyers. The domestic producers, led by Phu My, have repeatedly lowered their price to keep imported material more expensive – and thus unattractive to farmers.
Currently, Phu My is raising its prices to keep up with the strong domestic demand. Sources report that even with these increases, the price is still below imported prices.
Sources say the demand for this year will be about 2 million mt.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: Barge prices continued to move up last week, with reports of product easily topping the $200/st FOB mark and trading as high as $208/st FOB for February tons.
Eastern Cornbelt: Some sources continued to quote prepay offers for UAN-28 in the $195-$200/st ($6.96-$7.14/unit) FOB range in the region on the low end, but others talked of new reference prices as high as $7.50/unit FOB inland terminals for cash or prepay offers last week.
Western Cornbelt: UAN was steady at at $6.81-$7.20/unit FOB terminals, with the low reported by both Missouri and Nebraska sources for spot offers last week. The upper end was quoted for prepay UAN, although some were unsure how long prepay offers would still be on the table.
Southern Plains: UAN-32 was tagged at $200/st ($6.25/unit) FOB regional production points on the low end, with the dealer market out of Kansas terminal locations quoted at $215-$218/st ($6.71-$6.81/unit) FOB.
South Central: UAN-32 was up from last report at $210-$220/st ($6.56-$6.88/unit) FOB regional terminals for cash or prepay, with the upper end reflecting the dealer reference price FOB Vicksburg, Miss.
Southeast: The UAN-30 market was quoted at $195-$200/st ($6.50-$6.67/unit) FOB most port terminals in the region, but sources said higher prices at the $205/st ($6.83/unit) FOB level were in place at some locations as the week advanced due to higher replacement costs. The UAN vessel market, which sources had reported in the high-$220s/mt C&F during the prior week, was quoted by one source at the $235/mt C&F mark last week for the most recent business. Another added that price ideas have gone up so much that $240s/mt DEL is now being quoted.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: As with urea and UAN, AN barge prices continue to go up, with most players putting them within the $245-$248/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate remained at $275-$280/st FOB in the region.
Southern Plains: Ammonium nitrate was $265-$275/st FOB in the region, with the upper end FOB St. Joseph, Mo., and reflecting the reference price at Catoosa, Okla. Others, however, confirmed current offers out of the Catoosa market at the $265/st FOB level as well.
South Central: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $265-$275/st FOB, with the low in Mississippi and Arkansas and the upper end reported FOB Memphis to the dealer.
Southeast: Ammonium nitrate was up as well at $270/st FOB Tampa, $285/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., and $285/st rail-DEL in the Carolinas. One North Carolina source quoted bagged nitrate at the $330/st DEL mark last week.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $170-$177/st FOB in the region. There were reports that warehouse postings from Honeywell were set to firm $10/st to $175/st FOB and $180/st DEL, but that pricing adjustment was not confirmed.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $175-$180/st FOB. Agrium’s rail-DEL ammonium sulfate postings, effective Jan. 25, included $185/st in Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas, but that price was slated to increase $10/st on Feb. 2.
Southern Plains: Ammonium sulfate postings were scheduled to firm $10/st on Feb. 1, with postings FOB Plainview, Texas, moving on that date to $200/st for granular, $195/st for coarse, and $180/st for standard grade sulfate. Granular ammonium sulfate postings from American Plant Food Corp. moved on Feb. 1 to $170/st FOB Freeport, Texas, $180/st FOB Galena Park, Texas, $190/st FOB Mermentau, La., and $200/st FOB Littlefield, Texas. Coarse sulfate postings from the company moved on Feb. 1 to $160/st FOB Freeport, $170/st FOB Galena Park, and $190/st FOB Littlefield, and standard grade sulfate firmed to $150/st FOB Freeport and $180/st FOB Littlefield.
South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $185-$195/st FOB in the region, with the low in Memphis and the upper end reflecting dealer reference pricing FOB Vicksburg, Miss. Sources talked of the potential for tight sulfate supplies this spring.
Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was on the rise as well, with a reported $10/st increase pending from Honeywell. That adjustment will take the Hopewell, Va., granular sulfate price to $162/st FOB. DSM Chemicals North America Inc. was up $15/st on granular sulfate to $172/st FOB Augusta, Ga., while delivered pricing to Florida remained at the $185/st mark. DSM’s standard ammonium sulfate price was also unchanged at $135/st FOB Augusta.
Pacific Northwest: Agrium’s ammonium sulfate postings also firmed on Feb. 2 to $190/st FOB warehouse and $195/st DEL in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, Montana, and Wyoming.
PHOSPHATE
Central Florida: Although prices for Central Florida DAP were running behind the Gulf and export markets last week, the price for that market rose to another record high of $255/st FOB, $10/st FOB higher than the previous week. Considering the Central Florida DAP price was trailing the river market by about $20/st FOB last week, the price for the Florida market has room to grow. A producer said the biggest problem selling DAP out of Florida has been logistics – a lack of available railcars to move product out of the state. Nevertheless, last week “a reasonable amount, not one or two railcars, was sold,” a producer said.
The biggest question last week was – how high will the price of DAP go? The current price already exceeds the extremely optimistic projections of only a month ago, and no end was in sight. Demand remained high and supply continued to be low. The logistics problem for railcars for the domestic market was not a problem for the export market, but a producer said the domestic market continues to receive priority. Regardless, there was simply not enough product to meet the demands of all the markets. One source said it was the highest price he has seen since 1974, when the DAP price hit $430/st FOB. “I think it could go that high again,” he said. “I don’t see why not.”
One source said he had read a recent report that the amount of corn acreage that will be planted this year had grown to 93 million acres, up from the 86 million acres projected late last year by the USDA. While that information could not be confirmed, it would help explain the dramatic high demand facing the phosphate industry. Farmers will not worry about the price of their fertilizers as long as they will make money, and corn prices have been extremely good. Ethanol, of course, was responsible for the big push in corn, but it was not clear exactly how that much corn can be processed into the alternative fuel by existing processing plants. That may not matter as long as farmers can sell their crops on the futures market, which many – or most – were doing. Still, an ethanol plant under construction in New York will use a 100-car unit trainload of corn every three days.
Railcar sales of DAP were made at $255/st FOB, and early in the week railcars of DAP were sold as low as $245/st FOB. A trader who bought at the low price said that was no longer available and had offered $255/st FOB, but had not obtained the DAP at press time. The Central Florida price range for the week – and another new Green Markets record – was $245-$255/st FOB. The previous week’s index price was $245/st FOB. Prices were likely to go higher this week as long as new sales are made. PotashCorp’s Central Florida reference price remained at $260/st FOB. In Texas, Agrifos’ truck prices for DAP or MAP were $275-$280/st FOB. That company also matches the rail prices of other producers, but rail supplies were sold out through March.
U.S. Gulf: The NOLA DAP barge market continued to soar last week as prices climbed another $10/st FOB to set yet another record high price in the Green Markets index. And while the prices for future sales in late February and early March were running in a range of $268-$270/st FOB a week earlier, the prices for those sales last week reached $280/st FOB, which might sound like a good deal next week. How high will it go? There’s no way of making an intelligent guess anymore. Optimistic projections for the river market a month ago were $260/st FOB, which has long since fallen by the wayside. At the current rate of increases, a price of $300/st FOB could become a reality in a few weeks.
Even producers, who love to see the price rise to record heights, were stunned. “Wow,” said one. The only regret producers have is that they do not have more to sell so they can take advantage of the market. Many – or most – of the barges they were loading last week were sold at prices considerably below the current range. A month ago buyers were putting whatever they could get into their warehouses, but last week many were using the fresh barges for resale and reaping large profits. However, most of the barges sold last week were said to have originated at Miss Phos, which sells its product under contract. CF was said to have notified its customers that it will no longer make future sales because of low inventories.
Oklahoma continued to be battered by nasty weather last week, and the forecast for that area looked dismal. Ice and snow were slowing sales in the region, but farmers have no problem with the situation because of the large amount of moisture that will sink into the ground – very helpful for their crops, once they are planted.
Traders and dealers were having problems finding MAP, and there was no sign that situation would change. However, it was odd. Months ago, phosphate producers lowered the price of MAP to be equal to or lower than DAP. That was due in large part to the high cost of ammonia, which continues to be up. Producers could make more money from MAP than DAP, but have not been doing so.
Sales on the river last week were mostly for future delivery. One trader said he sold “a bunch” of DAP barges for delivery in late February and early March at $280/st FOB. Another said the price of DAP at New Orleans had moved up $10/st FOB in just a few days. That same trader made prompt sales at $274-$275/st FOB, which set the range for the NOLA DAP barge price range for last week. The previous week, the range was $262-$265/st FOB. Prices were likely to increase again this week.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to report firming prices and spotty movement to the field. One Ohio source said his location moved lots of dry tons during December, and spreading activity was steady in January as well in spite of several snow storms that moved through the area. Dealers continued to fill every available storage space in advance of the spring run, but uncertainties remained about product availability.
DAP prices continued to firm, with the market quoted at $288-$297/st FOB regional warehouses. One Ohio source pegged the market at a firm $290-$295/st FOB after a $10/st increase last week. The $297/st FOB price was quoted at another Ohio shipping point as of Jan. 29, with MAP at that location reportedly listed at a firm $300/st FOB.
TSP, where available, was tagged at $260-$265/st FOB in the region. 10-34-0 remained at $275-$285/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: DAP was quoted at $275-$285/st FOB regional warehouses, with the low confirmed by several sources out of spot Missouri locations last week. Most dealer quotes in the region were firmly at the upper end of that range, however. MAP had resumed its role at a premium price to DAP, with sources tagging the regional market at $280-$293/st FOB last week. The upper end was reported to dealers FOB Palmyra, Mo.
TSP was reported at $255-$260/st FOB river warehouses, where available. 10-34-0 was $270-$280/st FOB in the region.
Southern Plains: DAP was quoted at $280-$285/st FOB Catoosa, up significantly from last report, with several sources claiming the upper end of that range as the firm dealer price last week. MAP was in very tight supply, with several sources tagging the Catoosa market at the $290-$295/st FOB range, if available. 10-34-0 was up as well, at $275-$285/st FOB in the region.
Agrium’s phosphoric acid prices were scheduled to increase $5/st on Feb. 1 to $555/st for merchant grade and $565/st for super-phosphoric acid in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. A $5/st increase is scheduled for both products again in March.
South Central: Phosphate pricing was up from last report. DAP was quoted at $275-$285/st FOB regional warehouses, with postings from some suppliers at the $290/st FOB mark or higher. The low end of the range was reported FOB Blytheville and Caruthersville, Mo.
MAP was in particularly tight supply, with warehouse pricing pegged in roughly the same range as DAP. MAP FOB Vicksburg was tagged at the $275/st mark. TSP in the region was quoted at $240-$250/st FOB the warehouse.
Pacific Northwest: Agrium’s ammonium phosphate postings firmed as well on Feb. 2, with MAP moving to $340/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming; $345/st DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County; and $345/st FOB and $350/st DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County. The company’s 16-20-0 postings moved on that date to $260/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming; $265/st DEL in Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Utah; and $260/st FOB in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County.
California: Agrium’s ammonium phosphate postings in California and Arizona, effective Feb. 2, included MAP at $355/st FOB warehouse or rail-DEL, and 16-20-0 at $265/st FOB warehouse or rail-DEL.
U.S. Export: The record high prices in the U.S. domestic market, especially on the river, have not gone unnoticed by export buyers. In order to get the phosphates they need they have been stepping up to the plate and making buys at record prices for that market. What makes that even more interesting was that about a month ago, the export market was driving the domestic price. Now, the situation has reversed.
PhosChem made a sale of 28,000 mt into Argentina at $280/mt FOB early last week. Its next sale of 6,000 mt into a country outside the Western Hemisphere was done at $282/mt FOB. Then, later in the week, the next transaction – 8,000 mt to Central America – was done at $285/mt FOB. Each of those deals set a new record. PhosChem was seeking $288/mt FOB for its next sale. Currently, most of the export sales were being done in Latin America, but other areas of the world will soon be in need of product.
Once again, the Green Markets export price range set a new record of $280-$285/mt FOB, up from the previous week’s record and range of $269-$279/mt FOB. Expect prices to rise again this week.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash was quoted at $208-$217/st FOB in the region, depending on location, with the lower numbers reported out of river terminals in Illinois, and the upper out of inland locations in Ohio for red granular potash. One Ohio source reported reference pricing for white granular potash at the $220/st FOB level last week.
Western Cornbelt: Potash remained at $208-$214/st FOB in the region, depending on grade and warehouse location. The dealer market FOB Palmyra was quoted at $210/st for red granular product.
Southern Plains: Potash prices FOB Carlsbad, N.M., remained at $192-$198/st, depending on grade, with red granular potash quoted at a firm $195/st FOB the mine. The Catoosa potash market was quoted at $205-$210/st FOB last week.
South Central: Potash out of the warehouse remained at $198-$203/st FOB in the region, with the low in Vicksburg and the high for red granular product FOB Blytheville or Caruthersville.
Southeast: Potash was quoted at $220-$230/st DEL in the region, with the upper end reflecting the list price for delivered granular potash.
SULFUR
Tampa: Much ado about nothing – or almost nothing. Some of the sulfur producers stepped away from the table after a few settled at $5/lt down from the previous quarter’s contract price; then they decided last week to settle for a price of $4.50/lt down, a whopping difference of $0.50/lt more in their favor. One sulfur source commented that the stall of the negotiations was not worth the amount of money involved. However, at least it’s over. Both Mosaic and PotashCorp, both of whom reached deals with a few of their suppliers at $5/lt down, agreed to the deal. However, historically and traditionally the $4.50/lt reduction will become the price, in large part because of the long-term relationships the parties have developed over the years. It would not sit well with those receiving a lower price in terms of their ongoing relationships. Therefore, Green Markets lowered its index by $4.50/lt for Tampa molten sulfur. The same reduction would apply to rail deliveries, although the price of rail-delivered sulfur is normally higher than sulfur delivered by oceangoing vessels.
In general, the sulfur market appeared to be in balance last week, especially on the Gulf Coast. However, in Vancouver, sulfur suppliers were attempting to rebuild supplies for export after a hard winter took a toll on deliveries to the port.