Some 635 industry representatives were on hand in Orlando, Fla., Feb. 4-7 for The Fertilizer Institute’s 2008 Fertilizer Marketing Business Meeting. Conference organizers said the attendance figure was a record for the event, and was up considerably from the usual 500 or so delegates.
The strong attendance was a testament to the strong agricultural economy and the fertilizer industry’s record-setting profitability in recent quarters. Those bullish sentiments continued at the event, although the recent drop in urea pricing had some wondering if the current record high prices were an artificial “bubble” that might collapse when the spring application season gets underway and actual movement to the field begins in earnest.
Others, however, referred to the lower urea prices as a temporary lull, not indicative of any long-term market weakness. They cited, among other factors, the expectations for another huge corn crop, and the projections for low supplies of soybean seed in many markets.
Some in the industry who had planned on retiring this year have decided to stay around and enjoy the ride ?Çô and higher earnings. “I want to see how this thing turns out,” said one in that position. Another said he saw rapid growth in profits about 35 years ago, but this year has been even stronger, even taking inflation into consideration. He added, “High prices cure high prices; low prices cure low prices.”
The conference’s opening session keynote speaker, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, drew a capacity crowd on Tuesday morning, and offered some candid impressions of the current field of presidential candidates and the pressing issues currently facing the U.S.
Bush briefly discussed his term as Florida governor, noting that his fiscal conservative policy “drove the liberals crazy.” He also said his extensive use of the line item veto earned him the nickname Veto Corleone. Bush highlighted energy policy, saying the U.S. needs to expand nuclear power and alternatives to traditional sources of energy. He noted that while he opposed near-shore offshore drilling during his governorship, he would now support “nearer shore drilling” that can be done “in a way that is thoughtful and technologically safe.”
Bush fixed on the Jihadist movement as the “greatest security challenge,” and said he was bothered that “there’s this feeling of complacency about this threat.” Bush praised the “dogged determination” of his brother, President George W. Bush. “Some people call my brother stubborn,” he said. “I call him determined.” He said he hates the “banging” his brother takes from the press and from political opponents, saying he “gets no breaks” and that the “unbelievable Bush-hating” ethos has been “institutionalized in the press.”
He also offered a Super Tuesday assessment of the current field of candidates for the presidency. He said the Democratic race will likely stretch into April, and possibly to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22, before a clear winner emerges. The Republican race, by contrast, will likely be over quickly, he said, although he noted that McCain needed to “reach out” and “close gaps” within the party. He also said McCain needs to augment his strengths in foreign policy by choosing a running mate with insights into the domestic economy.
Bush characterized Sen. Hillary Clinton as a “very cautious” candidate who “doesn’t reveal her positions.” Sen. Obama, by contrast, has captured the imagination of an enormous number of people by offering a “politics of hope,” but Bush cautioned that Obama has not thought through the larger issues. As for a Democratic running mate, Bush said New Mexico Governor and former presidential candidate Bill Richardson would be an “awesome candidate” and would potentially complete a strong ticket. “I hope they don’t pick him,” Bush said of Richardson. “He’s a class act.” Bush went on to say he thinks governors make good running mates, fueling speculation from some conference goers that Bush was a potential vp pick on the Republican ticket.
Bush responded to a question about global warming by saying he had doubts. “I try to base opinion on fact,” he said. Referring to former Vice President Al Gore, Bush said, “I’m not critical of him, but I am critical of a world that is ready to embrace this questionable science.”
Richard Brock, a commodity marketing consultant and president of Brock Associates, addressed the conference on Wednesday, cautioning that the agriculture industry continues to face big challenges. High crop prices have put strains on pork producers, the poultry and dairy industries, and on grain elevator businesses. Brock also noted in detail the growing influence of commodity index funds.
Brock downplayed rumors of tight soybean seed supplies for the 2008 planting season, but said things “could go crazy” if the planted acreage for corn is under 90 million acres this spring. He also touched on China, likening that country’s demand for soybean oil to a “rocket ship that’s not going to stop.”
TFI also took note of some of its legislative and regulatory achievements in 2007, including passage of the Secure Handling of Ammonium Nitrate Act in December and the REACH product testing program partnership with the European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association.
PotashCorp President and CEO Bill Doyle, TFI’s current chairman of the board, also took note of the $1 million donation from the Nutrients for Life Foundation for a first-of-its-kind soil exhibit at the Smithsonian. The exhibit, entitled “Dig It! The Secrets of Soil,” is set to open July 19, 2008.