A record number of farmers flocked to the 13th annual Commodity Classic held at Nashville’s Gaylord Opryland Hotel the week of Feb. 28-March 1, with over 4,400 in attendance. A large number of exhibitors, including agricultural input and fertilizer companies, were also on hand for the large trade show which is a part of the event.
With high crop prices, the tone of the meeting was upbeat. “In my 29 years in farming, I can’t recall such an exciting time to be in agriculture,’ said Ron Litterer, president of the National Corn Growers Association.
Higher fertilizer prices as well as inflation were both topics at the meeting. Litterer noted that there is a food-versus-fuel debate going on as to what is causing inflation. He said the price of oil is really the main driver. “A $1 per gallon increase in the price of gasoline has three times the impact on retail food prices as a $1 per bushel increase in corn prices,” he said. “Yet we continually face the challenges of correcting misunderstandings and mistruths surrounding corn-based ethanol and biofuels.”
Litterer said a $100 barrel of oil can produce 19.5 gallons of gasoline, whereas $100 worth of yellow field corn at $4 per bushel provides enough feedstock to produce about 70 gallons of cleaner burning, renewable ethanol. He noted that that is 3.5 times more gasoline-equivalent motor fuel by volume than you get from a barrel of oil. He also noted that while diesel fuel and heating oil are also derived from the barrel of oil, the $100 worth of corn would also yield 450 pounds of high-quality livestock feed as well as carbon dioxide for industrial use. “And we know,” added Litterer, “the $100 for biobased fuels stays in America, while 60 percent of the oil we use is imported.”
Litterer said one of the great stories of agriculture is that it’s not just about improving yields, but doing so by being “greener.” “Since 1980, for example, corn production increased 74 percent, yet nutrient use was down by 10 percent,” he said. “We feel trend lines will continue to improve due to better genetics, breeding improvements, new traits and best management practices.”
Dr. John Hickman, principal scientist, John Deere, added to this saying that between 1975-1995 technological advances added 1.83 bushels per acre for corn, whereas 3.14 bp/a were added between 1995-2005. He said key advances for the near term will be drought-tolerant and nitrogen-efficient corn. He said the Corn Belt will expand due to technological advances.
Litterer’s forecast for corn acreage in 2008 is between 87-90 million acres.
Other national crop leaders said it is important to steer the national debate. “The environmental community thinks we are the bad guys,” said John Hoffman, president of the American Soybean Association.
“Agriculture is part of the solution, not the problem,” added John Thaemert, president of the National Association of Wheat Growers. “We have got to be at the table or we will be on the menu.”
Incoming Secretary of Agriculture Ed Shafer addressed the group and touted record commodity prices and farm income. He said more export growth is to be expected with higher prices and volumes. He noted drought in Australia and Europe, and demand in China and Mexico as well as from energy crops. He said the demand for renewable fuel has never been greater, what with oil at over $100 a barrel. He was also optimistic regarding the prospects for new trade deals with Panama, Korea and Colombia, as well as for a new farm bill.
Asked if a drought and higher prices in 2008 might spur USDA to release more acreage from the Crop Reserve Program, he said no. He said USDA would look at all factors for 2009.
Charlie Cook, a noted Washington political analyst, gave his assessments of the 2008 election. He said it would be a tougher year for Republicans than most, as it is hard to win three terms for president in a row. He also noted that conservatives are not in love with John McCain. As for Barack Obama, he said most conservatives don’t hate him yet, but they are going to get there if he becomes the nominee.
Cook said the independents will be the key, an area where both McCain and Obama have been strong to date.
Industry representatives were coy as to which candidate they would support for president as the general rule is they try to work with both parties. ASA’s Hoffman did volunteer that his group believes NAFTA is beneficial, citing record shipments of soybean meal to Mexico in particular. He said ASA does not want to take a step backward.
At next year’s 14th annual Commodity Classic in Grapevine, Texas, for the first time, sorghum farmers will join the corn, wheat and soybean farmers.