Mississippi River water levels were finally starting to recede last week at many locations in Illinois and Missouri. The river crested Wednesday at Cape Girardeau, Mo., at 42.5 feet, about 10.5 feet above flood stage but roughly six feet below the 1993 crest at that location. The crest at Chester, Ill., was expected early Thursday at 12.5 feet above flood stage. No major damage was expected in either town.
River levels in the St. Louis area were expected to fall below flood stage after the Independence Day weekend, although water levels in the northern Missouri counties of Pike and Lincoln will likely remain high until mid-July. At many locations around St. Louis, local reports said the river was dropping at a rate of about one foot per day last week, and some residents of flooded towns such as Winfield, Mo., and Foley, Mo., were starting to return home to assess damage.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was planning to reopen navigation locks on the Mississippi at Winfield and Clarksville, Mo., by Friday, and at the Kaskaskia lock near Chester by Monday, July 7. As was the case in recent weeks, however, the Corps said those openings dates were subject to change, depending on unexpected rains and changes to current river forecasts.
High waters in the St. Louis area prompted the Corps to close the river from mile markers 174-189 on June 28, effectively shutting down the St. Louis harbor to barge traffic. In addition, the Illinois River was closed from mile markers 0 to 24 for a period in late June.
The upper Mississippi was expected to fully reopen to barge traffic by no later than July 8, with Lock 20 near Canton, Mo., expected to be the final lock and dam to reopen. Water levels must still fall a few more feet to allow barges to pass under several bridges, the Corps noted. At the height of the flooding in late June, some 300 miles of the upper Mississippi were closed to barge traffic from Lock 11 to Lock 25, with the first lock closures announced on June 12.
Assessments of the amount of cropland lost to flooding and excessive rainfall continued to point to staggering losses. As was reported last week, the American Farm Bureau Federation has estimated total crop losses from flooding and other weather-related damage at $8 billion, with half of that realized in Iowa alone. AFBF said average corn yields in Iowa will be down some 16 percent overall, with 1.5 to 2 million acres of corn and soybeans in the state likely to remain unplanted. Other AFBF state loss estimates from flooding and weather events include $1.3 billion in Illinois and $900 million in Missouri.
USDA on June 30 released its updated acreage estimates, showing that of the 87.3 million acres planted to corn this year, farmers will likely harvest 78.9 million acres, with roughly 1.75 million acres – or 2 percent of the total planted area – abandoned due to June’s flooding and rain events. That harvested corn area, down 8.8 percent from last year, would still be the second highest since 1944, however. USDA noted as well that the 87.3 million acres planted to corn is the second highest on record, trailing last year’s 93.6 million acre crop by 7 percent.
Several analysts said they think those abandoned acreage assessments will increase when USDA conducts updated surveys in July and August. USDA said its data collection for the June 30 report took place before most of the extensive flooding in June, but some 1,200 farmers in the flood-affected areas were re-interviewed on June 23-25 “to more accurately determine how many acres producers intend to harvest for grain.” As a result of those new interviews, USDA said U.S. growers intend to harvest 90.4 percent of their planted acres of corn, down from the 92.4 percent figure gleaned during the initial surveys.
As for soybeans, USDA put the total planted area at 74.5 million acres, up 17 percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high acreage in 2006. Soybean growers will likely harvest 72.1 million of those acres this year, USDA said, which is up 15 percent from 2007. USDA noted that it revised its harvested acreage assessment for soybeans as a result of the new interviews in flood-damaged areas, reporting that U.S. farmers intend to harvest 96.8 percent of their planted soybean acreage instead of an historical average of 98.7 percent.
USDA placed the U.S. wheat crop at 63.5 million acres, up 5 percent from 2007, while cotton plantings for 2008 were estimated at 9.25 million acres, 15 percent below last year and the lowest since 1983.