USDA’s newest crop production report, released Oct. 28, projected U.S. corn production in 2008 at 12.0 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and 8 percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 153.9 bushels/acre, up 1.6 bushels from September and 2.8 bushels above last year. If these results are realized, USDA said this will be the second highest yield on record, trailing only 2004, and production will be the second largest, behind last year.
Yield forecasts were lower than last month across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the Eastern Cornbelt, which USDA attributed to dry conditions that lingered through August and September and continued to adversely affect the late developing corn crop. Forecasted yields also decreased in parts of the Delta and in Missouri, where excessive moisture and high winds from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike stressed the crop.
USDA said corn yield prospects improved in the central Cornbelt, central Great Plains, and upper Mississippi Valley, however, as September rains brought much-needed moisture to those locations. USDA said U.S. farmers are now expected to harvest 78.2 million acres for grain, down 1 percent from the September forecast and 10 percent below 2007.
The revised corn projections buoyed crop prices, and also the spirits of growers and fertilizer dealers on Tuesday. Following the release of the report, corn futures for December delivery rose 12.5 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $3.8525 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest gain since Oct. 20. Earlier, the price touched $3.64, the lowest since Oct. 25, 2007, and down dramatically from the $7.9925 achieved on June 27. The surge continued on Oct. 29, closing at $4.2075 for December 2008. The corn market closed lower Thursday after its sharp three-day rally, however, with December corn ending at $4.0950 per bushel.
USDA put this year’s soybean forecast at 2.94 billion bushels, up slightly from the September forecast and up 10 percent from last year. If realized, this would be the fourth largest production on record. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, USDA said soybean yields are expected to average 39.5 bu/a, down 0.5 bushel from Sept. 1 and down 2.2 bushels from 2007.
Compared with Sept. 1, USDA projected lower or unchanged soybean yields across the Cornbelt and Southern Plains, with the exception of Illinois and Kansas. Yields increased or were unchanged from the Sept. 1 forecast across the Southeast, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the mid-Atlantic states. USDA estimated total planted soybean area in the U.S. at 75.9 million acres, while area for harvest in the U.S. was forecast at 74.4 million acres, up 1 percent from Sept. 1 and up 16 percent from 2007.
All U.S. cotton production was forecast at 13.7 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month and down 29 percent from last year. Cotton yields are expected to average 849 pounds per harvested acre, unchanged from last month, but down 30 pounds from the record yield in 2007. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.3 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month and 28 percent below 2007.
Cotton producers in the Southeast and Texas are expecting increased yields from last month, while producers in Louisiana and Mississippi expect lower yields due to the effects of Hurricane Gustav. Upland growers in Arkansas and New Mexico are expecting record high cotton yields, USDA said.