AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Seller expectations are high that the $330/mt DEL achieved in Tampa will hold for additional business in September. Nothing new was reported this week to test that number.
Direct Hedge (DH) on Aug. 20 was indicating September Tampa at $300-$320/mt DEL, which is likely in line with what major buyers are hoping.
Natural Gas: Did you ever think you would see sub-$3.00/mmBtu gas again? Well it happened Aug. 20, when the NYMEX Henry Hub price for September closed at $2.945/mmBtu, which is the lowest price for a nearby month since 2002.
Eastern Cornbelt: Although there were few new spot sales to test the market, sources said anhydrous ammonia reference levels were now commonly at the $370/st FOB level in Illinois, with forward contract ammonia for September through December referenced at $365-$370/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana. Effective Aug. 12, Agrium’s anhydrous ammonia postings moved to $385/st FOB E. Dubuque and Niota, Ill., $390/st FOB Meredosia and Marseilles, Ill., and $400/st FOB NorthBend/Finney, Ohio.
Western Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia was pegged at $315-$340/st FOB regional terminals for cash market tons. Effective Aug. 12, Agrium’s anhydrous ammonia postings moved to $360/st FOB Hoag, Neb., $365/st FOB Greenwood, Neb., and $370/st FOB Mankato, Minn., and Iowa terminals at Early, Garner, and Whiting. Koch’s Aug. 13 ammonia postings included $315/st FOB Beatrice, Neb., and $325/st FOB Sgt. Bluff, Iowa, and Aurora, Neb.
Southern Plains: Sources reported delays on the Magellan ammonia pipeline last week. The company said it has completed hydro testing on portions of the pipeline system. It said it resumed operations in certain sections of the system early the week of Aug. 17 and expects to resume full operations by early the week of Aug. 24.
California: Anhydrous ammonia pricing was unchanged at $300-$335/st DEL, with the low for truck tons and the upper end for rail. Aqua ammonia remained at $90/st FOB in the state.
Pacific Northwest: Sources pegged the anhydrous ammonia cash market at $315-$340/st DEL in the region, reflecting a drop from last report. The low end was quoted for railed tons, and the upper end for the truck market. One supplier was referencing forward contract ammonia for September through December at $375/st FOB terminals in Washington.
Western Canada: Anhydrous ammonia was steady at $595-$640/mt DEL in the region.
Middle East: A spot sale from Sabic to Mitsui moved prices up. The market has been stuck in the mid $240s/mt FOB for several weeks despite a strong Asian market and aggressive producers.
The sale of 27,000 mt at $247/mt FOB is most likely bound for an Asian buyer.
The move came after producers argued for weeks that the price of ammonia should be in the $250s/mt FOB. Sadly for producers, however, only contract tons moved out to buyers during that time. Sources say the only prices that could be confirmed were ones in the low $240s/mt FOB.
Area sources report production is at 100 percent. Observers note that the supply-demand ratio is precariously balanced at present. If any plant goes down or if demand dramatically increases, said one trader, the price could jump. Likewise, he added, if demand weakens, prices could once again fall. For now, the strong demand in Asia, along with growing buying interest from the U.S., is helping ensure full order books.
With the latest deal on the books, sources say $250/mt FOB should be achieved this week. For now, the price range is pegged at $245-$248/mt FOB.
Black Sea: Demand for ammonia is not strong enough to move the price up dramatically, but sources say a steady increase is preferable. With the last bit of business pegged at $260/mt FOB thanks to buying interest in the U.S., producers are beginning to feel as if things are finally going their way.
While production costs are still significantly higher than the current market price, the Ukrainian producers have benefited from lowering input costs.
The natural gas deal Ukraine signed with Russia tied the cost of natural gas to oil prices – albeit with a lag.
The year opened with gas prices at US$360/1,000 cubic meters. The second quarter came in at $271, and the third quarter closed at $198. Area media experts say the fourth-quarter price could jump to $212/1,000 cubic meters. Even with the lower prices during the middle of this year, Ukrainian producers were still unable to operate. Asian sources put the break-even price for ammonia at $300-$320/mt FOB.
For now, prices continue to hover in the $260/mt FOB area.
As of Aug. 20, DH is indicating the paper market at Yuzhnyy at $260-$270/mt for August and $270-$280/mt for September. It falls off quite a bit after that, at $250-$270/mt for October and November.
Asia: The East Asian market is a major bright spot for ammonia sellers. Sources report industrial buyers throughout the area are asking for as many tons as producers can supply.
Traders supplying cargoes to the buyers are reaching into the Arab Gulf. Sources in Asia say the 27,000-mt sale from Sabic to Mitsui was most likely for a Korean buyer.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: Most sellers last week held firmly to the low $290s/st FOB as the price range for prompt granular urea barges. Indeed, sources reported that early in the week $291/st FOB was again achieved. Sources said there were only a small number of barges available, and that if you needed a barge, you were going to have to pay up. That said, it looks as if the prompt market and the September forward market are beginning to converge. The prompt market and the forward markets have been out of alignment for some time, with September forward trading much lower, namely on the paper markets. Add to this an onslaught of imports that are getting ready to hit NOLA.
Some of those imports are now getting into prompt territory, meaning that they can impact those prices. Traders were reported to be bringing in vessels in September and October from several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Trinidad, Qatar, Romania, and Libya.
Sabic has a vessel due in around Sept. 6 and another loading. Vessels from Trinidad and Egypt are expected in September as well.
Sources estimated that some 125,000 mt of urea will hit NOLA within the next week to 10 days, with much more on the way for the remainder of September and October.
While most sellers have been seeking to hold the line in the $290s/st FOB for as long as possible, these cargoes are about here and not all sellers were on board with the $290s/st prices. At midweek came reports of $284/st being done on the prompt market, and later in the week as low as $270/st FOB.
As of Aug. 20, Direct Hedge was indicating $260-$270/st for September, with the price falling to $255-$258/st FOB for October-December.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted at $325-$335/st FOB regional terminals, reflecting a $10/st increase from last report.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted at $315-$335/st FOB regional terminals, with the upper end out of spot Missouri River terminals. Sources pegged the dealer market out of Arkansas River terminals at the $325/st FOB level last week. Forward contract urea for September through December was referenced by one regional supplier at $335/st FOB Inola, Okla., and Pine Bend, Minn.
California: Granular urea was pegged at $330-$350/st rail-DEL and $360-$380/st FOB to the dealer.
Pacific Northwest: Granular urea pricing was up slightly to $335-$360/st DEL in the region, depending on location. Agrium’s Aug. 7 postings for granular urea included $335-$350/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming, depending on location; $355/st FOB Acequia and Pella, Idaho, and Washington terminals at Glade, Warden, and Wilson; $360/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and northern Nevada; $370/st DEL in northern and central Utah; and $375/st DEL in southern Utah.
Western Canada: Granular urea remained at $425-$450/mt DEL.
India: Sources report buyers from STC and MMTC have been sniffing around asking about prices and available tonnage. Tire-kicking excursions such as what is now going on by the Indian buyers usually indicate another tender could be called soon.
In general, once the buyers start looking around, said one trader, a tender is called within 14 days. The problem of calling a tender later this month or early next month, said another trader, is that Chinese tons will be out of play Sept. 15 unless Beijing extends the 10 percent export duty on urea until the end of the month. And industry watchers are divided on this eventuality.
The Indian buyers could also be flexible with shipment dates to allow for November loadings, which would then make Chinese tons possible.
One trader argued against another tender any time soon. He pointed to the drought and late rains as the main reason.
Even though some areas that have been parched in the past month are now getting rain, for many in these areas it is too late to plant in large volumes. Some crops will be planted and will require urea, but each day more people in the industry say India will not need as many tons this season as in previous years.
Pakistan: Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are in talks to secure a US$100 million loan package for urea purchases. The deal will most likely be concluded by this week, say sources. The offer is similar to previous deals the Saudi kingdom offered Pakistan, but significantly lower. In the past, Saudi Arabia offered as much as US$400 million to Pakistan for fertilizer purchases and development aid.
The amount offered covers about 370,000 mt at the low end of the Middle East market. Oddly enough, the Pakistan government says it needs 350-400,000 mt for the upcoming application season.
Industry sources are unsure if Saudi Arabia is prepared to dole out the full 400,000 mt or so in one shot. One industry observer noted that Sabic could use the Saudi loan to Pakistan to ensure tons are picked up and kept out of the open market. By using Pakistan to absorb its excess tons, Sabic could continue to service its contracts to the rest of the world and argue – with a straight face – that the price needs to be higher for any spot deals of tenders that come along.
Middle East: The market was buoyed by reports of a US$100 million Saudi loan package to Pakistan. Pakistan will use the money to buy urea from Sabic. At the current market rate of $270-$375/mt, the loan could account for 360-370,000 mt of urea. This is about the same amount Pakistan government officials say is the country’s shortfall for the upcoming application season.
Sources are split as to what the Saudi-Pakistan deal really means. The simple answer, said one observer, is that Sabic will move all the tons the loan can handle in a series of shipments to ensure it will have full orders into the fourth quarter.
A trader in Asia suggested that Sabic could use the loan to ensure it will have no overhang in its inventory. It will work with TCP in Pakistan to use money to purchase enough shipments so Sabic does not face any excess inventory.
Along that line of thinking, sources suggest Sabic could continue fulfilling its contracts and participate in tenders.
By keeping its inventory under control but also making some tons available to the open market, sources say Sabic could try to move the price up in tenders or with spot buyers. If, however, Pakistan hopes to cover the whole 400,000 mt it says it needs with this loan, the price will have to drop to $250/mt FOB.
It is no secret the producers are unified in their desire to move the price back into the $280s/mt FOB as soon as possible. For now, however, the price remains in the low $270s/mt FOB for both granular and prilled urea.
Black Sea: Sources report prices are softening in the area. A deal for a small quantity reportedly concluded at $248/mt FOB. And even at that level, Asian sources say few places can be found for material at that price.
The Black Sea market has shown signs of weakness ever since MMTC/India finished the last of its buying. The lack of demand from Europe and stiff competition with Chinese material into Latin America has left producers with more tons than they expected.
Reportedly, agents from MMTC and STC were talking to traders about pricing levels. Sources say the actions of the two Indian buying houses indicate another tender may be forthcoming.
Sources say the slide in prices has not been enough to take the market to $245/mt FOB. One trader said, however, for any Yuzhnyy material to compete against the Chinese tons, the price would have to drop below $240/mt FOB.
With Pakistan effectively out of the market because of a US$100 million loan from Saudi Arabia for urea purchases, India playing coy about a new tender, European demand down, and low-cost Chinese tons still available for another 15-20 days, the Yuzhnyy producers have little to look forward to for the next month or so.
China: With only slightly more than two weeks to go before the export duty is scheduled to jump back to 110 percent, sources are now reporting rumors that Beijing may push back the effective date of the new tariff.
Sources say rumblings from the urea producers indicate they would like to see more tons made available for export. To do that, said one trader, the date when the export duty jumps will have to be pushed back.
Reportedly, the main urea export ports are currently backlogged with vessels looking to take tons sold to buyers in the Americas and India. Any attempt to push more tons into the bonded warehouses and onto ships by Sept. 15 would face a major logistic nightmare, said one trader.
Prilled urea is still hovering in the $260s/mt FOB, with granular in the $270s/mt FOB.
Indonesia: The country seems to be facing a war of words between two different ministries about urea policy. The agriculture minister has gone on a public relations blitz to say that no more urea will be exported from Indonesia until local farmers are sure they will have enough material for the upcoming application season. The trade minister, however, said PIM has permission to sell urea based on quotas from last year. Sources say Kaltim has also been assured it will be able to sell most – if not all – of its granular product soon.
Indonesia is primarily a prilled urea market.
The battle is being waged as government leaders play to their constituencies.
International traders expect to see PIM offer at least 20,000 mt of prills in the next couple of weeks.
Kaltim may begin offering some of its 150,000 mt of granular production by September as well.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S.Gulf: Sellers appeared to be doing a better job last week of getting the word out that quotes are $140/st FOB or more. However, finding actual new business was hard to do.
As of Aug. 20, DH was indicating the August and September paper markets as $137-$140/st FOB, with October-December in the $140-$145/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt: UAN was pegged at $5.50-$5.94/unit FOB regional terminals to the dealer, depending on location. Forward contract tons for September were referenced by one supplier at $182.40-$204.80/st ($5.70-$6.40/unit) FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: The UAN-32 cash market was quoted at $176-$190/st ($5.50-$5.94/unit) FOB regional terminals, depending on location, with the upper end reported in Missouri. Those numbers reflected a slight increase from the previous week.
California: UAN-32 remained at $200-$210/st ($6.25-$6.56/unit) FOB and $190-$200/st ($6.09-$6.25/unit) railDEL in the state.
Pacific Northwest: Delivered UAN-32 was pegged at $200-$225/st, ($6.25-$7.03/unit) in the region, with the low for railed tons and the upper end reflecting the truck market. The rail-delivered price was up slightly from last report.
Western Canada: UAN-28 was unchanged at $271-$287/mt ($9.68-$10.25/unit) DEL in the region.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S.Gulf: The market continued to be called $200-$210/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was tagged at $242-$265/st FOB in the region, down slightly from last report, with the low end reported for truck tons in Missouri on a spot basis.
California: No market was reported for ammonium nitrate in California. CAN-17 was unchanged at $235-$245/st FOB in the state.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was unchanged at $160-$180/st FOB to the dealer.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $160-$180/st FOB, with limited inventories reported in the region.
California: Ammonium sulfate was steady at $235-$272/st FOB, with the low end for standard grade and the upper end for granular product in desert locations.
Pacific Northwest: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $225-$245/st DEL in the region.
Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate in Western Canada was quoted at $300-$305/mt DEL to the dealer.
PHOSPHATE
Central Florida: Phosphate inventories fell another 135,000 mt in the last month, and production was said to be on the increase. The fall season was growing shorter last week, but no heavy ordering was taking place. Still, Mosaic raised its price, and prices customers were paying to traders went up.
Although Mosaic hiked its asking prices, the amount of the increase was not as much as the difference between the export and domestic markets. If export prices continue to go up, expect to pay more on the domestic front.
A trader noted “everyone is holding off buying to get a better feel for the market.” Phosphate has remained relatively stable while the price of other fertilizers has been fluctuating, but prices have been on a slow rise. With inventories remaining low, there was no pressure to push the price down.
The Central Florida DAP price range continued to be flat last week, but up about $5/st FOB from $270/st FOB the previous week to $275/st FOB, based on actual sales. However, small buyers may have to pay a premium. Both Mosaic and PCS Sales had a $10/st FOB additional charge for MAP. Agrifos was no longer posting rail prices, but its price for truckloads was $300/st FOB for DAP and $305/st FOB for MAP.
The DH paper market as of Aug. 20 was indicating Central Florida for August at $265-$270/st, with September-December at $265-$280/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf: Mosaic raised its prices by $10/st FOB last week. The primary reason was low inventories, especially at Donaldsonville, but the higher return on exports was also a factor. Generally, the rest of the Gulf river market moved up on the heels of Mosaic’s new listing.
Late last week, Mosaic had no barges available for prompt delivery, and most that were available came indirectly from Miss Phos. CF had no barges available until September, but that could be pushed into October. The lack of barges was helping to support or increase phosphate prices.
Warehouse prices will probably begin rising to reflect the healthier barge market for phosphate products. On the Arkansas River system, the low price was $305/st FOB and as high as $310/st FOB last week. Those will most likely increase during the next couple of weeks due to not only the higher cost for barges, but also because Locks 17 and 18 will be down for maintenance work by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. The locks will be closed Aug. 24 to Sept. 6. Terminal prices on the Illinois were also up – from $300/st FOB to as high as $305/st FOB, or about $5/st FOB.
Corn prices took a beating last week, probably as a result of the USDA’s revised estimate of yields. The price of a bushel of corn fell about $0.25, to around $3.25.
The NOLA DAP barge price range moved up last week, from $272-$282/st FOB last week to $277-$283/st FOB. The low price was paid at the very beginning of the week and the highest late last week. Indications were prices would continue to rise, possibly as high as $300/st FOB by the end of the season. Both Mosaic and CF were charging a $10/st FOB premium for MAP.
As of Aug. 20, the DH paper market was indicating NOLA barges at $275-$280/st FOB for August, $285-$290/st FOB for September, and $280-$290/st FOB for October-December.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was steady at $300-$310/st FOB regional warehouses, with MAP $10/st higher. 10-34-0 was pegged at $320-$350/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: DAP was quoted at $300-$310/st FOB warehouses to the dealer, with MAP $10/st higher than DAP. Forward contract DAP tons for September through October were referenced by one regional supplier at $320/st FOB St. Louis and $325/st FOB Pine Bend.
10-34-0 was steady at $310-$340/st FOB in the region.
California: DAP and MAP were quoted at $365-$375/st FOB or DEL in California, reflecting a slight increase from last report. Effective Aug. 20, Agrium’s MAP postings moved to $375/st FOB warehouse or rail-DEL in California and Arizona.
16-20-0 remained at $265-$272/st FOB and $265/st railDEL in California. 10-34-0 was quoted at $319-$339/st FOB, up slightly from last report, with the low in the Central Valley and the upper end at desert locations.
Super phosphoric acid (SPA) and merchant grade acid (MGA) were steady at $7.30/unit DEL in California.
Agrium’s postings will firm on Sept. 1 to $740/st rail-DEL in California and Arizona.
Pacific Northwest: DAP and MAP were pegged at $355-$370/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest region, depending on location. Effective Aug. 20, Agrium’s MAP postings moved to $360/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming, $365/st DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County, and $370/st DEL and $365/st FOB warehouse in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County.
Phosphoric acid was steady at $7.30/unit DEL for both SPA and MGA in the region. 10-34-0 remained at $350-$375/st FOB, and 16-20-0 was steady at $255-$260/st DEL in the region.
Agrium’s SPA and MGA postings will firm on Sept. 1 to $740/st rail-DEL in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah and Washington.
Western Canada: MAP was quoted at $430-$465/mt DEL in the region, reflecting an increase of $10/mt from last report.
U.S. Export: No new U.S. export sales were found last week, but KRIBHCO did make buys from Australia, China, and Lithuania – about 85,000 mt at prices between $380/mt and $385/mt DEL. Ocean freight rates from Tampa were running about $65/mt last week, although no domestic phosphate was involved in any of the deals.
The Fertilizer Institute issued its export report for July, which showed India as a major buyer of U.S. phosphate, taking another 360,637 mt. Pakistan was the second biggest purchaser at 46,287 mt, and Brazil took 29,187 mt. For the month, total phosphate exports were 555,481 mt, an increase of 14.2 percent over the same month last year.
For the calendar-year-to-date, India had received 2,044,806 mt, Australia 131,499 mt, and Vietnam was the third biggest customer at 126,646 mt, an increase of 19.3 percent over the previous year.
TFI said MAP exports decreased last month by 3.1 percent over the same period last year, to 137,431 mt. Brazil continued to be the major buyer at 73,115 mt, followed by Argentina at 26,392 mt and Chile 14,281 mt.
For the calendar-year-to-date, Brazil was still the top consumer of MAP at 309,687 mt, with Canada at 2238,742 mt and Australia at 189,679 mt. Total MAP exports were down from 2008 by 12.7 percent at 899,462 mt.
The export DAP price range last week was unchanged at $313-$325/mt FOB. Because inventories are relatively low, the price was more likely to move up than down in coming weeks.
As of Aug. 20, the DH paper market was indicating Tampa at $315-$325/mt FOB for August and $320-$330/mt for September, and $330-$340/mt for October-December.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: The regional potash market remained at $510-$520/st FOB warehouses and $520-$530/st rail-DEL, based on reference levels from producers.
Western Cornbelt: Potash pricing was steady at $510-$520/st FOB and $520-$530/st rail-delivered to the dealer, depending on location and supplier.
California: Potash continued to be quoted at $550-$580/st FOB, with delivered tons in roughly the same range. Potassium nitrate was pegged at $1,080/st FOB for bulk tons and $1,150/st FOB for bags. Sources continued to report sulfate of potash offers in the $850-$955/st FOB range for bulk tons, depending on grade and supplier.
Pacific Northwest: Sources put the rail-delivered potash market at $535-$578/st in the region, depending on supplier.
Western Canada: PCS Sales’s potash postings to Canadian customers FOB Saskatchewan mines include $560/mt FOB Rocanville for 60 percent granular, $569/mt FOB Cory for 62 percent white granular, and $569/mt FOB Cory for 62 percent soluble.
Germany: K+S recently told analysts that it has about 1 million mt of product in inventory and that there is movement by NPK producers to use less potash in their blends. K+S Chairman Norbert Steiner, however, said lower prices are not the answer. “We will not be able to solve all the farming problems and all the other problems in Europe by decreasing potash prices,” he told analysts. “I mean that is something which is out of the question.”
SULFUR
Tampa: After both Mosaic and PotashCorp settled with all of their major suppliers earlier this month, the industry settled into a more normal routine and was dealing with more mundane problems.
Because shipments of prill from the Gulf were expected to set new records of around 1.5 million mt this year and were already above the total for all shipments last year, Green Markets will soon begin publishing a price range for that product. Prill sales from the Gulf are virtually always on a spot basis, unlike molten to Tampa, and most recently were in the $15-$25/mt range.
Refineries were still producing less fuel and sulfur than normal and the price difference between sweet and sour crude had narrowed, so less crude was being bought and less sulfur was being extracted. The market was close to being in balance last week.