Market Watch

AMMONIA

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The Tampa market continues to be called $345/mt DEL and NOLA at $325/st FOB.

The Oct. 5 glitch in natural gas supplies was short-lived, according to the local press, with major nitrogen plants believed to have returned to production. Plants began ratcheting back up by Oct. 7. PCS Nitrogen management was quoted as saying that one plant had to go down and others were cut back to 80 percent capacity. However, the plants are now reportedly fully operational.

As of Oct. 15, Direct Hedge (DH) calls the paper market $335-$350/mt for October, $310-$330/mt for November, and $300-$320 for December-March.

August imports were about level with those of a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, at 605,967 st versus the year-ago 608,030 st. However, July-August was off 24 percent, to 1.05 million st from the year-ago 1.38 million st.

Eastern Cornbelt: Harvest delays were compounded last week as more rain blanketed the region. In addition to the moisture, a freeze warning was posted for much of northern and central Illinois over the Columbus Day weekend, and more unseasonably cold weather was in store as the week advanced.

Fall fertilizer movement remained on the backburner, with few changes reported to the spot fertilizer markets. “We’ll have a couple weeks in November,” said one source, referring to fall applications. “I’m not totally pessimistic yet, but I know there are people out there who are starting to question.”

>Anhydrous ammonia remained at $350-$370/st FOB regional terminals for spot tons to the dealer, with the upper end reflecting dealer reference levels. Sources reported no new business to test the market.

Western Cornbelt: Sources reported little action on the fertilizer front, with few new sales to test the markets. A combination of wet weather and cold temperatures continued to hamper the region’s harvest in mid-October. Barge traffic on the Mississippi River was stalled at Clarksville, Mo., for several days last week due to damages sustained at Lock 24. The lock was expected to reopen late on Oct. 15.

The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $330-$350/st FOB in the region, with the low reported in Nebraska.

Southern Plains: The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $290-$315/st FOB to the dealer, with the low quoted out of most regional production points and the upper number reflecting dealer prices out of pipeline terminals in Kansas.

South Central: The ammonia market was pegged at $340-$350/st FOB in the region, with the low FOB Memphis, Tenn., for spot market tons. Sources reported no business to test those numbers.

Sources reported minimal, if any, fertilizer activity in the region last week. One source said growers are making no decisions about fall winter wheat or spring planting intentions at this time, with all attention focused on the delayed harvest.

Arab Gulf: The market remains tight in the area. Sources report that between business done under a spot sale to Mitsui late last month and a tender deal with FACT/India, the price has firmed with $300/mt FOB at the top of price range.

Producers are satisfied with the trend in demand and pricing. Reportedly, they are now asking $315/mt FOB – and potential buyers are not backing away. Sources say nothing has been done above the $300/mt FOB mark yet. However, rumors abound that Mitsui is once again looking for a spot cargo to fulfill its contracts. The last time the Japanese trader was desperate for tons, the local market jumped to the current $300/mt FOB from $270/mt FOB.

Sources say producers are churning out as much ammonia as possible.

A few hiccups occurred in the Safco IV facility. Reports are that a minor glitch occurred in the operation, but that by the end of last week, everything was back to normal.

Black Sea: Sources report Yara concluded a deal out of Yuzhnyy at $295/mt FOB and Transammonia at $300/mt FOB. One trader suggested the sales were done to cover previous short trades.

Mostly producers in the area are happy with the trend in pricing. While the current price is still not at the break-even point for most producers, the fact it is ready to edge past $300/mt FOB is good news for those anxious to come back online.

Asian sources say the price will need to firm up around $320/mt FOB for most of the producers to feel comfortable restarting production.

India: Buying continues at a brisk rate as phosphate producers keep running their facilities at full blast.

New demand from ammonia is expected with the opening of a storage tank at Mumbai.

The new storage owner is said to be Deepak Fertilizer. Asian sources say most of the ammonia will be used for DAP production, and any excess tons will be sold to industrial buyers.

UREA

U.S. Gulf: Most players last week were calling barges at NOLA proper in the $249-$255/st FOB range. However, at press time, sources were doubtful anything at the higher end of the range could still be achieved. Others said barges positioned upriver that could still make it before river close were going for $258-$262/st when netted back to NOLA.

Urea imports dipped 58 percent in August, to 225,667 st from the year-ago 532,150 st. July-August imports were off 43 percent, at 452,575 st from 798,940 st.

As of Oct. 15, DH reported the October-November granular paper market at $255-$260/st, December $257-$260/st, January-March $265-$270/st, and April-May $255-$260/st.

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was pegged at a nominal $295-$305/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt: The granular urea market was steady at $295-$305/st FOB river terminals to the dealer.

Southern Plains: The granular urea market had reportedly dropped to $285/st FOB Enid and Inola, Okla.

South Central: The granular urea market had reportedly slipped to $285-$295/st FOB regional warehouses, with reports of spot quotes as low as $275/st FOB to the dealer.

Southeast: Sources pegged the urea market at $300/st FOB port terminals, with no sales taking place.

India: The negotiators for STC worked overtime last week, nailing down about three-quarters of a million mt by week’s end. The buyer worked out a payment plan based on the port of discharge. Rates are as follows.

East Coast US$/mt CFR
Krishnapatam, Gangavaram 278
Vivag, Paradip, Tuticorin, Kakinada 279
West Coast
Kandla 276
Mundra 275
New Mangalore, Pipvav 277

Negotiations ran right up until the end validity cut-off date of Oct. 15. The final tally follows.

Company Quantity Discharge port
Transammonia 175,000 Kandla
Pipvav
Krishnapatam
Toepfer 105,000 Gangavaram
Fedcominvest 100,000 Mundra
Kakinada
Gavilon 75,000 Vizag
Keytrade 65,000 Paradip
Amber 50,000 Krishnapatam
Swiss Singapore 50,000 Vizag, Tuticorin
Dreymoor 45,000 Mundra or Kandla
Stirol 35,000 Open
Agora 25,000 New Mangalore

Arab Gulf producers Qafco and PIC lowered their initial offers from $268-$269/mt FOB to $264/mt FOB. STC, however, was holding out for $262/mt FOB.

In the end, the buyers and sellers could not close the price gap.

Industry observers say Indian buying will go quiet for about a month or so. Most expect to see MMTC or IPL come in with a tender in late November or early December. At that time, said one trader, the buyer may see slightly stronger prices.

Pakistan: A series of tenders throughout last week showed a steady rise in prices. Sources said at first traders were confused as to where the market was reasonably sitting. The gap between the highest and lowest offers at one point was as high as $13. By the most recent tender of Oct. 15, the gap was $9.50.

The tally of the most recent tenders follows.

TCP Tender for urea October 10, 2009

Company Source Quantity (mt) US$/mt CFR
Transfert Open 50,000 287.87
Transammonia Open 50-70,000 289.77
Gavilon Open 50,000 291.00
Multicommerce Open 50-70,000 291.15
50-70,000 (S/O) 291.15
Amber Open 50,000 292.90
Helm Open 50-70,000 294.35
50-70,000 294.35
Dreymoor Open 50-70,000 294.73
35,000 (S/O) 294.73
Keytrade Open 50-60,000 298.62

TCP results from October 13 tender

Offering Company Quantity (mt) Origin US$/mt CFR
Helm 50-70,000 Open 289.71
50-70,000 (S/O) 289.71
Keytrade 50-60,000 Open 290.00
Multicommerce 50-70,000 Open 291.00
Transammonia 50-70,000 Open 294.17
Amber Fertilizer 50,000 Open 294.70
Swiss Singapore 50,000 Open 295.50
Dreymoor 50-70,000 Open 297.50

In each of these tenders, the lowest offers were awarded within 24 hours of the tender closing.

TCP results from October 15 tender

Supplier Quantity (mt) US$/mt CFR
Keytrade 50-60,000 290.40
Multicommerce 50-75,000 291.93
25-35,000 (S/O)
Toepfer 50,000 294.24
Gavilon 50,000 296.50
Dreymoor 50,000 297.25
Amber 50,000 297.90
Transammonia 50-70,000 299.87

Sources report there may be a problem with the Keytrade offer. One trader noted that Keytrade was offering to unload the cargo at a port other than the one TCP designated in the tender documents. Several observers say the dispute is a minor one that will most likely be smoothed over by the weekend.

Another offer, from M.Y. International for 25,000 mt from Russia at $283.71/mt CFR, was disqualified by TCP. Sources say the offer did not comply with the tender conditions. Sources say the actual tonnage awarded so far comes to 325,000 mt. Confirmed awards issued follow.

Tender Date Company Quantity (mt) US$/mt CFR
October 3 Toepfer 50,000 289.94
October 6 Dreymoor 70,000 288.81
October 8 Transammonia 70,000 283.77
October 10 Transfert 50,000 287.77
October 13 Helm 60,000 289.71

TCP has one more tender for 100,000 mt to close Oct. 17. This set of seven tenders was supposed to net 600,000 mt by the end of the month. Traders say that the tender of Oct. 15 and the following tender will still leave TCP about 150,000 mt short of its goal.

Rather than wait for the results of the final tender, TCP called another tender for 100,000 mt to close Oct. 22.

According to local media reports, the government is looking to amend the import rules to allow private companies to enter the urea import business. Industry sources say the move comes at a time when Pakistan may not have to import material.

New production is expected to come online next year. The buying of this year is doing more than just taking care of immediate application needs, said one trader. Sufficient reserves are also being built up. By the middle of next year, said one source, the domestic production may be so strong that no imports for 2010 will be needed.

Black Sea: Sources report a strong lineup of vessels at Yuzhnyy and firming prices. International traders report $238/mt FOB was done for a 25,000 mt cargo. They add that the earlier low-$230s/mt FOB material is long gone. Reports are circulating that $240/mt FOB was concluded, but industry observers could not point to a specific buyer as Green Markets went to press.

The uptick in prices is laid at the feet of the India and Pakistan buying spree. With STC/India done and no new tender expected for about a month, and with Pakistan settling its tenders one cargo at a time, sources say there is not much left for the Yuzhnyy suppliers to look happy about.

True, said one trader, the producers will be loading vessels bound for India for the next 45 days – but after that, no one is sure what will happen.

If, as expected, IPL or MMTC come back with a tender in late November, sources say the best the producers will be able to hope for is a flat price. No other major buyers will be in the market at that time, and stock reserves will start building.

Unless, said one observer, the plants take turnarounds as winter approaches.

Traditional large-scale buyers in Latin America and Europe are not in the market as much as producers would like. Sources say Turkey and many other European buyers have more places to shop than just Yuzhnyy. One trader noted that Turkey, in particular, is buying hand-to-mouth and is relying more on Romania than Yuzhnyy this time around.

With firm reports of a sale at $238/mt FOB, sources now peg the market at $235-$238/mt FOB – with every expectation that when an Indian tender is called next month, the price could start out in the low $240s/mt FOB.

As of Oct. 15, DH has Yuzhnyy urea at $233-$238/mt October, $238-$242/mt November-December, and $235-$240/st January-March.

Middle East: Producers see no reason to quibble about prices. PIC and Qafco lowered their offers to STC/India from $268-$269/mt FOB to $264/mt FOB.

In other times, a $5/mt drop in price would have been enough for an Indian buyer to snap up the tons.

Not this time. STC held out for $262/mt FOB, and both sides refused to budge.

Fortunately for the producers, about half of the tons heading to Pakistan are from the Arab Gulf. At the same time, there are just enough small sales to Asian buyers and plenty of contract tons being shipped out on a regular basis.

Sources say the vessel lineup in the area makes the producers more than comfortable. And come December, contract sales to the United States will kick in, further reducing the number of tons available for tenders or other spot business.

Sources are adamant that the price is now in the range set by the talks with STC, at $262-$264/mt FOB. One trader is convinced that $266/mt FOB is a reasonable price for a cargo.

Media reports that PIC is considering selling its fertilizer operations received ho-hum reactions from the industry. Some noted that a number of people in the company have been talking about getting out of the fertilizer business for a number of years. Reportedly, about three years ago PIC quietly made an offer to some international buyers. The talks went nowhere.

The Kuwait company told area media it has not decided if it will shutter the urea and ammonia operations or if it will sell them to an outsider.

Indian buyers come immediately to mind if PIC sells. Sources said, however, that any purchase of the fertilizer production facilities will have to include an iron-clad and long-term contract for natural gas.

If the PIC facility just closes, sources say the effect will be minimized by the already running Oman operations and the additional production facilities that will come online in the next couple of years by Qafco, Fertil, and Iran.

China: The big winners in the Indian tender appear to be Chinese producers. While none of the winning companies have made their urea sources public, industry observers say the high number of East Coast deliveries indicates a strong Chinese presence.

For now, Chinese producers are still focused on the country’s domestic demands. Yet talks for November loadings, when the export duty returns to 10 percent from the current 110 percent, already show that the price for prilled urea has moved up $3-$5/mt.

When this month opened, sources were quoting prices in the low $250/mt FOB. Now, say traders, the asking price is closer to $255-257/mt FOB.

The $278-$279/mt CFR price for deliveries to India’s East Coast negotiated by STC with the traders will still allow companies with Chinese tons to make a profit. But, said one trader, only if the domestic price in China does not take off.

Sources noted that the producers could divert tons they had promised – but not contracted – to an international trader to the domestic market if demand retains its current strength.

Indonesia: The industry expects to see another selling tender as early as next week. Sources say Pusri will most likely sell a series of 5,000 mt lots in a tender to close by the end of the month. The other major sellers, Kaltim and PIM, are assessing the situation. Both reportedly have leftover export permits and the tons to sell. The issue comes down to how much people are willing to pay in a limited export market.

Sources report that Transammonia bought a granular cargo earlier this month at $258.25/mt FOB. That would keep the prilled market in the low $250s/mt FOB.

Sources say a granular tender could easily bring in $260/mt FOB if the tender is called just before another Indian buying tender.

For now, the prilled price remains in the low-to-mid $250s/mt FOB. Granular is in the upper $250s/mt FOB.

NITROGEN SOLUTIONS

U.S. Gulf: Most sources continue to call the barge market $125-$130/st FOB and quiet. One observer said producers continue to push for higher prices, but that demand is not there. He said buyers were burned last year by early purchases and plan to wait as long as they can. Credit availability was also said to be a concern.

As of Oct. 15, DH had October paper trades at $130-$135/st and November at $130-$140/st. January-March trades were up dramatically to $155-$165/st, with prices sinking back to $150-$155/st for April-May.

UAN imports were off 65 percent in August, to 78,502 st from the year-ago 222,289 st. July-August imports were off 59 percent, to 151,861 st from 374,057 st.

Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN market remained in the $5.25-$5.80/unit FOB range, with dealer reference levels as high as $6.15/unit FOB in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was unchanged at $165-$185/st ($5.16-$5.78/unit) FOB regional terminals to the dealer, depending on location. One source pegged the dealer market FOB Bigelow, Mo., at the $175/st ($5.47/unit) level last week.

Southern Plains: The UAN-32 market was steady at $155-$165/st ($4.84-$5.16/unit) FOB regional terminals. There was talk of some producers hiking postings in October, though any official changes to reference levels were not confirmed last week.

South Central: UAN-32 was quoted at $165-$175/st ($5.16-$5.47/unit) FOB regional terminals to the dealer, depending on location, with no activity to test the market. The Memphis market remained at the $165/st ($5.16/unit) FOB level to the dealer.

Southeast: UAN remained at $5.00-$5.33/unit FOB regional terminals. Several sources placed the Norfolk, Va., and Wilmington, N.C., markets at the $155/st ($5.17/unit) level for UAN-30, and $165/st ($5.16/unit) for UAN-32. The UAN-32 vessel market was quoted at an untested $170-$172/mt C&F.

AMMONIUM NITRATE

U.S.Gulf: The barge market remains quiet at $200-$205/st FOB.

AN imports were off 35 percent in August, to 33,507 st from 51,858 st. July-August were off 30 percent, to 61,807 st from 88,439 st.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was unchanged at $255-$265/st FOB in the region.

Southern Plains: Ammonium nitrate pricing remained at $255/st FOB Catoosa, Okla.

South Central: Ammonium nitrate remained at $260/st FOB regional terminals to the dealer.

Southeast: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $270-$280/st FOB Tampa, down roughly $10/st from last report.

AMMONIUM SULFATE

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $170-$180/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $170-$180/st FOB or rail-DEL in the region.

Southern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $175-$215/st FOB Texas shipping points, with the low FOB Freeport.

South Central: Most sources pegged the granular ammonium sulfate market solidly at the $175/st FOB level in the region last week.

Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $160-$165/st FOB, with the upper level reflecting the reference price FOB Augusta, Ga. Rail-delivered sulfate in Florida was quoted at $160/st for standard grade and $195/st for granular, with reference levels unchanged at $168/st for standard and $205/st for granular.

U.S. Imports: Imports rose 8 percent in August to 25,362 st, up from the year-ago 23,381 st. July-August imports were up 14 percent, to 45,833 st from the year-ago 40,360 st.

PHOSPHATE

Central Florida: Although most of the country saw colder temperatures and wet weather last week, the opposite was true in Florida, where record highs were set. That situation was supposed to change over the weekend, if the first cool front of the season actually made it that far south.

Sales were limited to a few truckloads last week, but prices were essentially unchanged.

Inventories remained relatively low last week, but could begin to grow as deliveries to India taper off at the end of this month and the fall season turns out to be a no-show. If sales do not increase, watch for additional curtailments by phosphate producers.

A landowner in Mulberry, Fla., was looking for a home for about 40,000 tons of high-grade phosphate rock, which was mined earlier and was easily accessible. For additional information, call Jay Dalton at 615-512-0176.

The Central Florida DAP price range last week was $270-$275/st FOB based on offers and sales. Both Mosaic and PCS Sales were charging a $10/st FOB premium for MAP. Agrifos was charging $300/st FOB for DAP and $305/st FOB for MAP.

U.S. Gulf: Wet and cold weather put a damper on harvesting in many areas of the Midwest last week and threatened corn crops in some locations. If the weather relents and farmers can get into their fields, yields will be very good or better. That would be very helpful, because prices for corn and beans were up last week.

This year growers used much less phosphates than normal and still got good results. They know they cannot continue to do that much longer, and will likely buy for the spring season. The question was when – will it be this fall or for the spring season early next year? Current fertilizer prices are relatively low, but some believe they could drop even more if business does not improve. Dealers have shown little interest in taking risks after the disaster of last year, which nearly drove some into bankruptcy.

Warehouse prices have remained low and many were charging too little to warrant buying NOLA DAP barges. In the Midwest, terminal prices were running from as little as $280/st FOB to $310/st FOB, depending on location, and the trend was downward. That situation, along with the lack of sales, was putting pressure on the market to lower barge prices, and that may have begun. A barge deal was found at $268/st FOB NOLA.

Very few barges were on the river system last week, and that could push any price decreases back up if the market was to suddenly develop a pulse. A lack of demand and a lack of supply were the most stabilizing factors in the market last week.

The NOLA DAP barge price range last week fell slightly, from $272-$274/st FOB the previous week to $268-$272/st FOB. Mosaic was seeking $295/st FOB. Both Mosaic and CF were charging a $10/st FOB premium for MAP.

As of Oct. 15, DH had paper trades at $270-$275/st for October and $265-$270/st for November-December.

Eastern Cornbelt: The DAP market remained at $305-$315/st FOB in the region, with MAP at a $10/st premium. 10-34-0 was quoted at $310-$320/st FOB regional shipping points.

Western Cornbelt: DAP was pegged at $300-$310/st FOB, with the upper end in Missouri on a spot basis. MAP was $10/st higher than DAP, and 10-34-0 remained at $305-$315/st FOB in the region.

Southern Plains: DAP was pegged at $295-$305/st FOB in the Southern Plains region, down slightly from last report. One source said some dealers may be long on DAP and are bartering tons as movement on wheat winds down. MAP was $10/st higher than DAP. The 10-34-0 market was quoted at $300-$310/st FOB in the region, also reflecting a slight drop from last report.

South Central: DAP out of regional warehouses was commonly quoted at the $300/st FOB level to the dealer last week, with MAP $10/st higher. The TSP market was pegged at $275-$280/st FOB warehouses to the dealer.

U.S. Export: Export DAP sales followed the trend of the domestic market last week and nothing was done. The world market for phosphates remained quiet, and there was little on the horizon to inspire hope.

Deliveries from the U.S. to India will begin to taper off during the next few months, and most will have already been shipped by the end of October. With the domestic market in a long slump, phosphate producers could begin cutting production before the end of the year in order to hold down inventories.

The export DAP price range continued unchanged at $310-$312/mt FOB last week.

As of Oct. 15, DH had October Tampa paper trades at $300-$310/mt, November at $285-$290/mt, and December at $280-$285/mt.

POTASH

Eastern Cornbelt: Potash was tagged at $465-$490/st FOB in the region, depending on grade and location.

Western Cornbelt: The regional potash market was quoted at $465-$490/st FOB, with the low reported for Russian product on a spot basis. One source pegged the granular potash market at the $480/st mark FOB St. Joseph, Mo.

Southern Plains: Sources put the potash market at $480-$490/st FOB regional warehouses, depending on grade and supplier. Postings FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included standard 60 percent at $477/st, granular 60 percent at $482/st, standard 62 percent at $493/st, fine standard 62 percent at $496/st, and granular 62 percent at $498/st FOB.

South Central: Potash out of regional terminals was pegged in the $455-$465/st FOB range last week, reflecting another drop from last report. Imported potash barges were said to be at the $435/st level FOB the Gulf. Sources reported no interest at those levels. “These farmers and dealers are about as aggravated at the potash guys as I’ve ever seen,” said one. “Prices are not even close to what they’re willing to pay.” He noted the cattle and pasture areas simply will not apply potash at these pricing levels. “We’ve got a long way to go,” he added.

Southeast: Delivered potash was tagged in the $495-$510/st range in the region, depending on grade and supplier. One source described the market as “shaky,” noting drastic usage cutbacks, little interest from buyers, and increasingly eager salesmen. “The farmers have finally gotten the suppliers’ attention,” he said.

U.S. Imports: Muriate of potash imports were off 51 percent in August, to 392,113 st from the year-ago 799,022 st. July-August imports were off 54 percent, to 699,771 st from 1.52 million st.

SULFUR
Tampa: Sources said negotiations between sulfur suppliers and phosphate producers were moving closer to agreement last week, although no settlement was reached. A small increase in fourth-quarter prices was expected – the question was, how small was small?

Although the world market is improving, possible curtailments by the phosphate industry, which has had a dim fall season, loom in the next couple of months.

With the summer driving season over, refineries were switching to production of fuel oil, which has a higher sulfur content than gasoline. At the same time, sweet crude was the standard and sour was less available. As a result, less sulfur was being produced.

Prillers on the Gulf Coast were running at about normal rates, around 50 percent of capacity, and inventories were relatively low.

U.S. Imports: Imports were off 65 percent in August to 89,965 st from the year-ago 254,694 st. July-August imports were off 53 percent, to 233,582 st from 499,444 st.

MARKET NOTES

Pakistan: The country’s second largest urea manufacturer, Engro Chemical Pakistan Ltd., has released more details of its Algerian DAP project, which is estimated to cost US$1.5 billion to produce 1.0 million mt/y. Engro would have 66 percent, with Somiphos, a subsidiary of Algerian state-owned Ferphos Group, the remaining 34 percent. It would be sited at Guelma, 57 kilometers southwest of Annaba, using ore from the country’s largest phosphate mine at Djebel-Onk, south of Tebessa. The project will be implemented in three phases with completion dates by the end of 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Each phase will include the construction of a 1,500 mt/d phosphoric acid unit and a 4,000 mt/d sulfuric acid facility. The first phase will also include a 3,000 mt/d DAP unit, while the third will feature a 1,000 mt/d facility producing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, along with associated utilities.

In other news, Engro is seeking term financing certificates valued at US$30 million to partly finance an ongoing expansion project (1.3 million mt/y at US$ 1.2 billion) by July 2010 in the Dharki District, Sindh Province of Pakistan.