Calgary-Agrium Inc. said Oct. 23 that it expects third-quarter 2009 earnings to be 90 to 95 percent below last year’s third-quarter results, in line with results previously reported from industry peers for the third quarter. The reduction is due to significantly lower prices and margins for all three crop nutrients, particularly for phosphate and potash. Retail results have been negatively impacted by a slower-than-expected recovery in Retail crop nutrient margins in the third quarter, and an approximately 40 percent decline in fungicide sales and applications this summer. These factors will result in a significant reduction in the previously forecasted Retail EBITDA. Despite these short-term challenges, Agrium believes the fundamentals for its businesses are excellent and that it is well positioned for the anticipated strong recovery in crop input demand in 2010. It says its U.S. grower customers have indicated their intention to return to normal crop nutrient application this fertilizer year, particularly now that corn prices have increased again to well above historic levels. Agrium says if the wet weather in the U.S. continues and shortens the fall application season, it is expected to push fall nutrient demand into the spring of 2010. Agrium will provide more information when its third-quarter results are released Nov. 4.
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