AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The markets were quiet over the holidays, having achieved a $25/mt drop beforehand to $300/mt DEL at Tampa. There have been discussions of new business at NOLA, but nothing confirmed.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources reported a fair amount of interest in spring prepay ammonia at year’s end, but spot demand for prompt tons had dried up in the region. Spring prepay offers for ammonia were reported in the $425-$440/st FOB range, with the low in Illinois and the upper end reported FOB Henderson, Ky.
Western Cornbelt: No spot demand for ammonia was reported in the region last week. Prepay ammonia was quoted at $400-$420/st FOB in the region for spring, depending on location, with the low reported in Nebraska.
Southern Plains: Koch’s Dec. 30 ammonia postings included $315/st FOB Dodge City, Kan., and $325/st FOB Conway and Clay Center, Kan., with first-quarter spring prepay offered at $335/st FOB Dodge City, $345/st FOB Conway, and $350/st FOB Clay Center, and second quarter spring prepay offered at $345/st FOB Dodge City, $350/st FOB Conway, and $355/st FOB Clay Center.
California: Anhydrous ammonia was pegged at $480-$485/st truck-DEL and $515/st rail-DEL in the California market, with aqua ammonia listed at $132/st FOB.
Pacific Northwest: Anhydrous ammonia was tagged at $445/st truck-DEL in the region last week, although postings were considerably higher. Agrium anhydrous ammonia postings firmed on Dec. 10 to $480/st rail-DEL in Oregon, Washington, and northern Idaho; $500/st truck-DEL in Oregon and Washington east of the Cascades, and in northern Idaho; $505/st rail-DEL in southern Idaho and Utah; and $530/st truck-DEL in Montana and northern Wyoming.
Western Canada: The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $665-$692/mt DEL in the region, reflecting an increase of $30-$45/mt from early December. The low end was confirmed in Manitoba, with the higher numbers in Alberta.
Black Sea: The price in the area is stable as market observers wait to see what kind of demand will come from the U.S. in the first quarter.
Ukrainian producers remain shut down until the price gets back into the $300s/mt FOB. Sources say the exact break-even point for the producers keeps shifting. The main issue facing the producers as the new year starts is the final price of Russian natural gas. Talks are continuing between the Russians and Ukrainians regarding the final price. The Russians continue to raise the issue of alleged diversion by the Ukrainians of natural gas destined for Western Europe. The Russians are once again threatening to withhold the gas if they perceive gas is being diverted.
In previous years, disputes between Russia and Ukraine have led to a complete stoppage of the flow of natural gas to points west. The European Community has been working with both parties to ensure a steady flow this winter.
Middle East: Supplies remain tight. The only producer that seems to be able to supply some spot tons is Iran.
Area sources say the main problem with buying from Iran is that its supply is not as reliable as that from other Gulf producers.
Even though Indian buying is beginning to wane, sources say most of the Arab Gulf producers still do not have any spot tons available. Sources say the producers are spending as much time paying back swapped tons as they are handling ongoing contracts.
In the past few months, most of the producers had one or more ammonia lines down for repair. To ensure no customer was left short of material, producers and traders swapped cargoes. Now that just about everyone is back to full production, the swaps are being paid back.
The market price remains stable.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: The majority of recent granular barge trades were in the $314-$318/st FOB range, according to most sources. Trades started at the lower end of the range and worked their way up.
Buyers argue that prices should not go up because of a healthy list of imports due into the U.S. in January. Sellers counter that imports to date are way off, and that those tons will not come close to filling the demand for the spring season.
Eastern Cornbelt: The granular urea market was unchanged at $355-$360/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing to the dealer remained at $350-$360/st FOB in the region.
California: Granular urea was $390-$410/st rail-DEL and $375-$390/st FOB to the dealer.
Pacific Northwest: Granular urea was tagged at $380-$400/st DEL in the region. Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed again on Dec. 10, moving up $20/st from Nov. 27 list prices. Dec. 10 postings include $380-$395/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming, depending on location; $400/st FOB warehouses at Acequia and Pella, Idaho, and at Washington locations at Glade, Warden, and Wilson; $405/st DEL in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and northern Nevada; $415/st DEL in northern and central Utah; and $420/st DEL in southern Utah.
Western Canada: Granular urea pricing to the dealer was pegged at $471-$486/mt DEL, up $15-$25/mt from last report, with the high end of the range reported in Alberta. The common dealer price in Saskatchewan was quoted at the $476/mt DEL level last week.
China: Prices keep edging up. Earlier in December, the Chinese domestic urea price put the product out of the global market. Sources now say, however, that the international market has moved up enough that some January business with China could be possible.
Sources now peg granular at $320/mt FOB, and prills about $10/mt less.
At these levels, the Middle East and Yuzhnyy tons become non-competitive into the Asia market. One source noted that China can be a less-expensive supplier than the other major sources, but it is no longer the cheap alternative.
Buyers have a short window of opportunity to buy and ship the Chinese urea. The export duty on urea will be only 7 percent for the month of January. Beginning Feb. 1, the duty will jump to 100 percent.
Sources say a little leeway may be granted in some ports regarding the rules of shipping. A few local customs officers may be willing to allow cargo to go out at the lower rate in February if it is placed in a bonded warehouse and a vessel is nominated by Jan. 31. Other port officials will demand the cargo be fully loaded on a vessel by the end of the month.
One trader said he would be reluctant to attempt any shipments in February, even at the lower duty.
The Chinese Lunar New Year is Feb. 14 this year. Just as Christmas and New Year slow down most business in the West, the Lunar New Year brings most operations in China to a halt.
In the past, the Chinese government has authorized a full week off for the New Year celebrations. Many companies allow their employees additional time off leading up to the New Year date and beyond the government-granted period.
The absence of many workers at the factories and docks would not allow for timely vessel loadings, said one trader.
Sources say the main buyer for Chinese tons this month will be Vietnam. Vietnam will need to have about 150,000 mt arrive this month and next. The favorable freight rates between China and Vietnam make China the most likely source for the shipments.
India: Sources say the Agora deal with IPL put a solid floor in the market. Without that deal, sources say prices from Yuzhnyy and the Middle East could have softened as excess tons looked for a home.
Now Agora has to find material to deliver at $300/mt CFR. Industry watchers say Fedcominvest is the most likely backer of the deal with Black Sea material.
If all 250,000 mt are delivered on time, sources say India will not need to make any purchases until the second quarter.
Vietnam: Despite statements the country will be self-sufficient in urea production this year, sources say it will need to import about 150,000 mt this quarter.
One trader noted that even when new plants come online later this year, urea production in the country will not meet demand. Most of the production is in the south. Because of infrastructure issues, it is often cheaper to buy Chinese material in small vessels than to ship domestic tons to the north.
Middle East: Sources report steady shipments of contract tons are keeping the producers happy.
Prills are reportedly being offered at $280-$300/mt FOB, while granular is pegged at $300-$315/mt FOB.
At least one trader, however, said that some deals for granular have gone at $315-$320/mt FOB.
Sources report that enough steady contract business is on the books for this quarter that producers are not concerned about any price softening. What does concern producers, however, are reports that the contract buyers are taking only the minimum required. The buyers are not exercising their options for additional tons as they have in the past, said one trader. This could change as the spring application in Europe and the U.S. approaches and farmers have a better sense of what they might be able to do at that time.
Black Sea: Thanks to the Agora deal with IPL, sources say the Yuzhnyy market will not take its usual January price dip. Sources say Agora will most likely be supplying IPL with tons from Yuzhnyy. The sale of 200-300,000 mt to India – along with all the other deals involving Black Sea tons – has provided a solid floor on area prices.
Sources say the market has moved up. Prices in mid-December were pegged in the upper $250s/mt FOB. Sources now say bids are in the low $260s/mt FOB, with offers at $270/mt FOB.
One trader noted that if Agora had not made its deal with India, the price could have slipped into the low $250s/mt FOB due to lack of sales. Now that Agora has to deliver its cargos this month and next, sources say there is no reason for the Black Sea price to soften.
Sources report that the first two weeks of January are fully booked. The second half of the month looks less tight, but only at the right price.
Besides Agora filling its commitment to IPL, sources report that Fedcominvest also has a few tender awards to satisfy.
Bangladesh: BCIC closed two tenders as the year ended. Sources say few expect any awards to come from the tenders.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: The last done business continues to be called $179-$186/st FOB ($5.59-$5.81/unit FOB). While there was much talk of $190/st, confirmation was harder to find. Sources generally said there was much more interest in the inland markets and for prepay.
Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN-32 market was quoted at $230-$250/st ($7.19-$7.81/unit) FOB regional terminals, depending on location and time of delivery, with the low reported for prompt tons on a spot basis. Koch’s Dec. 29 UAN-32 postings FOB Henry, Ill., included $240/st ($7.50/unit) FOB for prompt tons, and $250/st ($7.81/unit) FOB for first-quarter and second-quarter spring prepay. One source talked of spring prepay offers as high as $8.00-$9.00/unit FOB in the Ohio and Michigan markets.
Western Cornbelt: The UAN-32 market was quoted in a broad range at $215-$245/st ($6.72-$7.66/unit) FOB regional terminals to the dealer, with the upper end reported in Missouri for prompt or prepay tons.
Koch’s Dec. 29 UAN-32 postings for prompt tons included $215/st ($6.72/unit) FOB Fort Dodge, Iowa, Beatrice, Neb., and Dodge City, Kan., and $225/st ($7.03/unit) FOB Sergeant Bluff, Iowa. Koch’s first-quarter spring prepay UAN was referenced at $225/st ($7.03/unit) FOB Dodge City, $245/st ($7.66/unit) FOB Fort Dodge and Beatrice, and $250/st ($7.81/unit) FOB Sergeant Bluff, with second-quarter spring prepay posted at $240/st ($7.50/unit) FOB Dodge City, $245/st ($7.66/unit) FOB Fort Dodge and Beatrice, and $250/st ($7.81/unit) FOB Sergeant Bluff.
California: The UAN-32 market was quoted at $235-$245/st ($7.34-$7.66/unit) DEL in California, with the warehouse range pegged at $233-$245/st ($7.28-$7.66/unit) FOB to the dealer.
Pacific Northwest: Delivered UAN-32 remained at $230-$240/st ($7.19-$7.50/unit) in the region. Koch’s Dec. 29 UAN-32 postings FOB Cheyenne, Wyo., included $215/st ($6.72/unit) FOB for prompt, with first-quarter spring prepay offered at $220/st ($6.88/unit) FOB and second-quarter spring prepay offered at $245/st ($7.66/unit) FOB.
Western Canada: The UAN-28 market was up some $15/mt from last report, with pricing to the dealer reported at $282-$298/mt ($10.07-$10.64/unit) DEL in the region.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: Barge prices continue to move up, with sources calling recent trades within the $210-$215/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was pegged at $270-$275/st FOB in the region, reflecting a slight increase from last report.
California: No market was reported for ammonium nitrate in California. CAN-17 pricing was up some $20-$30/st from last report, however. The dealer market for CAN-17 was quoted at $255-$275/st FOB in the state, with the low at Helm and the upper end FOB El Centro.
Pacific Northwest: No current prices were reported for ammonium nitrate in the region. CAN-17 was unchanged at $245-$250/st FOB and $260/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $185-$210/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: The granular ammonium sulfate market remained in a broad range at $185-$210/st FOB, with the low in Missouri and the upper end in Iowa.
Southern Plains: Effective Jan. 4, American Plant Food Corp.’s ammonium sulfate postings in Texas will firm $20/st, bringing granular ammonium sulfate list prices to $195/st FOB Freeport, $205/st FOB Galena Park, $220/st FOB Fort Worth, and $235/st FOB Littlefield. APF’s postings for coarse grade ammonium sulfate will firm on that date to $185/st Freeport, $195/st FOB Galena Park, $210/st FOB Fort Worth, and $225/st FOB Littlefield, while standard grade ammonium sulfate postings will move to $180/st FOB Freeport and $220/st FOB Littlefield. The company’s N-Pac Compacted price will firm on Jan. 4 to $210/st FOB Galena Park.
APF’s granular ammonium sulfate postings in Mermentau, La., will move on Jan. 4 to $225/st FOB.
California: Ammonium sulfate pricing was steady at $210-$247/st FOB, depending on grade and location, with the lower numbers quoted for standard grade product. One supplier had fluid grade ammonium sulfate listed at $220-$225/st FOB in California, effective Dec. 7.
Pacific Northwest: Granular ammonium sulfate had reportedly firmed to the $200-$220/st DEL range in the region. One supplier was referenced at $195/st FOB and $200/st DEL for granular and regular grade ammonium sulfate in Washington, Oregon, and northern Idaho, and $225/st FOB and $230/st DEL in southern Idaho and Montana. Fluid grade ammonium sulfate postings as of Dec. 7 included $165/st FOB and $170/st DEL in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana.
Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $290-$295/mt DEL to the dealer in Western Canada.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: Although the market in Central Florida was not exactly going gangbusters last week, sales of DAP railcars were moving at a healthy pace. With supplies on the river system beginning to evaporate in a late season rush, availability was greater in Florida.
Mosaic was making sales at $350/st FOB last week, but CF, which has little or nothing to sell, was said to have posted its price up to $370/st FOB.
Meanwhile, sources said PotashCorp was preparing to increase its production at White Springs in North Florida. This would make sense, because the market has surged and the company will soon take a portion of its Aurora facility in North Carolina down for a turnaround.
With the typical end-of-the-year slowdown, many traders who deal in the Central Florida market were out last week, but business as usual should begin right after the beginning of the New Year.
Phosphate producers will almost certainly pay more for sulfur during the next quarter, as prices on the world market have shot up during the past several weeks, according to sources. They say the new price could roughly double, but considering the rapidly rising price of phosphate, that should not pose a problem.
Last week, the Central Florida DAP price range was a flat $350/st FOB based on prompt sales, up from the previous flat $320/st FOB.
Agrifos posted prices for railcars last week at $385/st FOB for DAP railcars and $395/st FOB for MAP by rail. Trucks were $5/st FOB higher for both products offered by Agrifos.
U.S. Gulf: The jingle from phosphate barge sales just before Christmas became “Silent Night” last week, as time off became the rule of the week.
Sales were made on the river, and all were up about $30/st FOB over the previous week, a sign of the supply shortage. Few barges were available for prompt delivery, after most were scooped up the week before.
Sales out of warehouses were hampered after many facilities simply ran out of product. Farmers were prepaying for phosphate to their dealers, who were attempting to lock up product.
The biggest factor affecting sales of all sorts last week was the brutally cold and wet – rain, ice, and snow – weather that swept across most of the Midwest. Availability of trucks to make deliveries was a problem in some areas, and that situation may not improve much this week.
Sales for barges to be delivered in the spring were on the upswing last week as well. Although those deals could not be included in the price range, some ran as high as $390/st FOB, which could be a bargain by March.
Terminal prices were also racing to keep pace with the higher cost of phosphate barges, with the lowest found at around $400/st FOB, but other locations running as high as $420-$430/st FOB.
The NOLA DAP barge price last week was $380/st FOB, which was up from the previous range of $334-$355/st FOB, and prices for MAP were running $10-$15/st FOB higher. But sellers were increasingly moving toward the $15/st FOB differential, as MAP was said to be extremely scarce.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources reported rapidly firming markets for phosphates in late 2009. The DAP market was pegged at $425-$430/st FOB regional warehouses last week, with MAP $15/st higher. CF’s postings for the Dec. 29 to Jan. 1 period include DAP at $425/st FOB Peoria, Ill., and $430/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio.
The 10-34-0 market was quoted at $345-$365/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: The final days of 2009 saw continued pricing hikes for phosphates. DAP was quoted at $420-$430/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with MAP $15/st higher. CF’s list prices for the Dec. 29 to Jan. 1 order and shipping period included DAP at $420/st FOB Inola, Okla., and St Louis, Mo., and $430 Pine Bend, Minn. MAP postings for that period included $435/st FOB Inola and $445/st FOB Pine Bend.
One wholesale supplier said he was hearing complaints from dealers about the rapid run-up in phosphate prices, with some reportedly threatening to cut back on purchases for spring. He speculated that lower potash prices in early January may prompt a shift to potash instead.
10-34-0 was quoted at $335-$355/st FOB, also up slightly from last report. Agrium announced new postings for phosphoric acid. Effective Jan. 1, the list price for super phosphoric acid (SPA) and merchant grade acid (MGA) will move to $690/st rail-DEL in Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Wyoming, Minnesota, and the Dakotas.
California: DAP and MAP were quoted at $440-$445/st FOB or DEL in California, with the low after discounts. Agrium’s MAP postings firmed again on Dec. 23, representing the third price hike in a month. Postings moved on that date to $445/st FOB the warehouse or rail-DEL in California and Arizona. Those levels reflect a $35/st increase from Agrium’s Dec. 9 MAP postings, and a $50/st increase from Nov. 30 list prices.
16-20-0 had firmed as well, to $307/st rail-DEL and $307-$337/st FOB warehouses, depending on location. Simplot was referencing 0-45-0 TSP at $425/st rail-DEL or FOB French Camp.
Super phosphoric acid (SPA) and merchant grade acid (MGA) remained at $7.40/unit DEL in California, with Simplot referenced at $7.60/unit FOB the warehouse for MGA. Agrium’s phos acid postings for Jan. 1 include $750/st rail-DEL for both SPA and MGA in California and Arizona. Simplot had no pricing change planned for January.
The 10-34-0 market in California was steady at $333-$354/st FOB, with the low in the Central Valley and the upper end at desert locations.
Pacific Northwest: MAP and DAP were quoted at $430-$440/st DEL in the region last week, with the low in Montana and the higher numbers reported in the Washington market.
Agrium’s Dec. 23 MAP postings included $430/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming; $435/st DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County; and $440/st DEL and $435/st FOB the warehouse in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County.
Simplot was reportedly referenced at the $440/st level for truck or rail-DEL tons from Pocatello, Idaho, with 16-20-0 now posted at the $299/st DEL mark. Simplot’s dealer reference price for 0-45-0 TSP was $420/st FOB Pocatello. 10-34-0 was steady at $350-$360/st FOB in the region.
SPA and MGA were steady as well at $7.40/unit DEL in the region. Agrium’s phos acid postings for Jan. 1 include $750/st rail-DEL for both SPA and MGA in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Nevada.
Western Canada: The MAP market was tagged at $522-$542/mt DEL in the region, up $40/mt from mid-December pricing levels and a full $60/mt higher than month-ago postings. The lower numbers were reported in Manitoba, with the higher end of the range reflecting dealer prices in parts of Alberta.
10-34-0 pricing was also up in the region, to $450-$453/mt DEL, up some $30/mt from last report.
U.S. Export: During the Christmas holiday period, PhosChem made a sale of 6,000 mt into South America at $380/mt FOB.
Sources said a couple of phosphate processing plants in North Africa were down, and that was helping PhosChem to make sales into Latin America.
Based on PhosChem’s most recent sale, the export DAP price range last week moved to a flat $380/mt from the previous range of $368/mt FOB, and PhosChem increased its asking price for the next deal to $390/mt FOB.
Asia: The price of DAP continues to strengthen in the region. Sources report Thai buyers are now looking at $430-$450/mt CFR for January tons. Offers are now topping $470/mt CFR. Just a month ago, the price was closer to $370/mt CFR.
The increase in price comes as Australia and New Zealand continue to look for DAP and China sits on its DAP reserves.
The Chinese purchase of 600,000 mt of DAP for northern farmers drained the international market of any softness buyers were hoping for. Despite large reserves in the south, the purchase came about because the logistics of shipping the expensive DAP from southern China to northern China made the material more expensive than shipping tons from Tampa to northern China.
Sources report tightness in the market not normally seen in this area at this time of year.
One trader said that he has not been able to find spot tons for January or February at any price. In the past, he said, adding a few dollars to the bid could free up at least one cargo. Only bids beyond what buyers are willing to pay could secure a cargo, he said.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: PCS Sales’s potash postings FOB Saskatchewan mines are scheduled to drop on Jan. 4 to $345/st for standard, $350/st for granular, and $357/st for soluble and white granular. This compares to the PCS range of $467-$480/st FOB for these products July 24, 2009 (GM July 27, 2009), soon after the price to India dropped to $460/mt CFR.
The company’s granular potash postings out of warehouse locations for the Jan. 4 to Feb. 28 period are slated to drop to $390/st FOB in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin, with rail-delivered postings falling to $400/st in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. By comparison, on July 24, 2009, PCS posted granular at $515/st FOB and $530/st rail-DEL.
In the Eastern U.S., PCS granular potash postings will drop to $397/st FOB Chesapeake, Va., $400/st FOB Baltimore, Md., and $410/st rail-DEL. A $30/st increase is scheduled for all locations on March 1.
Western Cornbelt: While potash out of the warehouse remained as high as $440/st FOB last week, lower postings were slated to take effect Jan. 4. On that date, PCS Sales was scheduled to drop its list prices for granular potash to $390/st FOB St. Louis, Ft. Dodge, and Waterloo, Iowa, with rail-delivered postings moving to $400/st in Iowa and Minnesota. A $30/st increase is scheduled for March 1.
California: Potash remained at $475-$495/st DEL in California, depending on grade and location. Potassium nitrate was steady at $1,080/st FOB for bulk tons and $1,150/st FOB for bags. The sulfate of potash (SOP) market was unchanged at $675-$730/st FOB for bulk tons, depending on grade and supplier.
Pacific Northwest: Potash was quoted at $432-$445/st FOB and $470-$477/st DEL, depending on grade, supplier, and location. Those levels reflected a decrease from last report, and sources said another downward pricing adjustment is scheduled for early January.
SULFUR
Tampa: Prices on the world sulfur market rose steadily during the past couple of weeks, and sources said that situation was likely to continue as supplies were becoming increasingly difficult to find.
Several sources said it was highly probable the price of molten sulfur to Tampa will increase to about twice the current level, and could be somewhere in the range of $70/lt. That would still be a bargain in comparison to what the rest of the world was paying. A trader in China was said to have paid $115/mt delivered, and another in Asia coughed up $125/mt FOB. Sales of Russian sulfur into North Africa were running about $80/mt.
All of the same supply problems continued along the Gulf Coast last week – refineries were producing less than normal, some were shutting down for economic reasons and turnarounds, and more sweet crude was being refined. Farther north, the weather was taking a toll on some plants.
Truck deliveries last week were hampered in the Midwest by ice and snow, and by flooding in the southern areas.
Negotiations for new prices for the first quarter should begin after the beginning of the year, and phosphate producers, who have seen their own business and prices rise sharply in the past few weeks, would be wise to settle quickly, according to some sources. Sulfur producers were also increasing the amount they planned to ship to prilling units along the Gulf to take advantage of the stronger export market.
Vancouver: Prices for spot deals out of Vancouver were rising at the rate of about $10/mt FOB a week. Cold weather was slowing supplies last week.