The USDA on Jan. 12 projected U.S. corn production for 2009 at a record 13.2 billion bushels, up from the 12.9 billion bushels projected in their previous forecast, and 1 percent above the previous record of 13.0 billion bushels set in 2007.
Corn exports were projected at 2.1 billion bushels, unchanged from last month and up from the estimated 1.9 billion bushels exported in 2008/2009. USDA’s 2009 crop production summary estimated U.S. corn yield at a record 165.2 bushels/acre in 2009, up 2.3 bushels from the November forecast, and 4.9 bushels above the previous record of 160.3 bu/a set in 2004.
USDA said soybean production in 2009 also set a record at 3.36 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the Nov. 1 forecast and up 13 percent from 2008. The average soybean yield was estimated at a record high 44 bu/a, 0.7 bushel above the November forecast and 4.3 bushels above 2008’s yield. Harvested soybean area was up 2 percent from 2008, to a record 76.4 million acres.
The record corn and soybean projections came in spite of what USDA noted were below-normal temperatures across much of the Cornbelt in July and the “wet field conditions and high moisture levels” that growers battled throughout the fall harvest season.
The bullish estimates stunned the commodity markets and most analysts, and caused crop prices to plummet in the wake of the report’s release. Many analysts had predicted drops in production due to the wet fall and the acreage that remains unharvested as a result. Some analysts just prior to the Jan. 12 crop production report said the recent heavy snows in the Midwest could cause as much as 100 million bushels of the 2009 corn crop to be lost.
Regionally, USDA said estimated corn yields were at record high levels across much of the Cornbelt, Great Plains, and Ohio Valley. The mild temperatures through much of the growing season, combined with adequate soil moisture, provided favorable growing conditions and grain development. Record yields were also estimated for much of the upper Rocky Mountain Region, as well as the Pacific Northwest. Yields were estimated lower in the Delta, however, due to delayed spring planting and excessive moisture during harvest.
Soybean yields were up or unchanged from last year in all states except Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, New York, and South Carolina. Despite the soybean crop developing at a slower pace than normal for most of the growing season, USDA said conditions were generally good as most growing regions received ample moisture. The largest yield increases occurred in Delaware, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, and Tennessee, where yields jumped by more than 10 bushels from last year, when extreme heat late in the 2008 growing season reduced yields. New record high yields were set in Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Ohio, and Tennessee.
As for other crops, all cotton production was estimated at 12.4 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 3 percent from 2008. The U.S. cotton yield was estimated at 774 pounds/acre, down 8 pounds from the Dec. 1 forecast and down 39 pounds from last year. Harvested cotton area, at 7.69 million acres, was down less than 1 percent from December, but up 2 percent from last year.
Rice production in 2009 was estimated at 220 million cwt, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 8 percent from 2008. Total area planted to rice was estimated at 3.14 million acres, up 5 percent from 2008. The area harvested, at 3.10 million acres, was up slightly from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from 2008. The average yield for all U.S. rice was estimated at 7,085 pounds/acre, up 47 pounds from the previous forecast, and 239 pounds above the 2008 yield.
All wheat production totaled 2.22 billion bushels in 2009, down 11 percent from 2008. Grain area was pegged at 49.9 million acres, down 10 percent from last year. The average U.S. wheat yield was 44.4 bu/a, down 0.5 bushel from last year.
Sorghum grain production in 2009 was estimated at 383 million bushels, up 5 percent from the Nov. 1 forecast, but 19 percent below 2008. Total area planted was estimated at 6.63 million acres, down 20 percent from last year and the third lowest acreage total on record. Total area harvested for grain, at 5.52 million acres, was down 24 percent from 2008. Average grain yield, at 69.4 bu/a, was up 5.4 bushels from the previous forecast and up 4.4 bushels from 2008.