Improved attendance is expected at The Fertilizer Institute’s annual meeting, this year held Feb. 7-10 in warm, sunny Orlando. And with the cold, wet weather that has blanketed much of the nation, is there any wonder? Indeed, with a huge snow storm hitting the Mid-Atlantic states Friday, Feb. 5, some attendees may have trouble making it to Florida.
The 2010 meeting also brings with it a better sense of stability compared to the year-ago meeting in San Diego, when the world was still in the thrall of the global financial crisis and many fertilizer company stocks, as well as most others, were in the gutter.
Most sources last week told Green Markets that they were “cautiously optimistic” about the prospects for the spring season. Weather, this year perhaps more than usual, is a concern due to its frigid, wet hold on the U.S. this winter. In addition, sources say many dealers are waiting for that first wave of demand before restocking fertilizer. They say many have made sure they have enough product to sell those first farmers through the door, but that they want to see good demand before buying more. They are doing whatever they can to find stability after the 2008-2009 roller coaster.
Sellers say the “wait-and-see” attitude on the part of dealers will result in an eventual rush for product – and higher prices. However, many buyers appear willing to take that risk. As for the demand, most in the industry are optimistic that, weather permitting, a large corn acreage will be planted again this year, despite lower corn prices in the last month. They say that despite these lower prices, demand for corn is there and that farmers are still making money. This received a boost from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency last week, which gave a green light to ethanol (see page 10).
As for NPK in general (see graph page 12), most assessments were that the lower potash postings in January did indeed spur good demand and start to deplete inventories. As a result, after hitting bottom, producers expect prices to work their way back up. Phosphates, which have been very strong for the last few months, are starting to receive some resistance, say sources. Dealers may need to see more product going out the door before they step back in. Nitrogen prices appear to be holding their own, with sellers saying it, too, will take off once demand hits.