AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The NOLA market continues to see movement. Last week, a new sale was reported at $420/st FOB, up from the prior week’s $330-$410/st FOB. Sources say this is simply a reaction to the recent Tampa business at $450/mt DEL.
Eastern Cornbelt: The ammonia market was steady at $415-$425/st FOB regional terminals in late February. CF’s cash market postings on March 3 included $415/st FOB Terra Haute, Ind., Seneca, Ill., and Peru, Ill., $420/st FOB Albany, Ill., and $425/st FOB Cowden and Kingston Mines, Ill., and Frankfort and Huntington, Ind.
Western Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia was steady at $390-$410/st FOB regional terminals, with the low in Nebraska and the upper numbers out of Missouri terminals.
California: Agrium’s anhydrous ammonia postings moved on March 4 to $560/st truck-DEL in Central California and $565/st truck-DEL in Northern California. Effective March 8, Calamco will raise its truck-delivered anhydrous ammonia price in the state by $80/st, to $560/st. The company’s aqua ammonia posting will firm on that date from $132/st to $152/st FOB. Rail-delivered ammonia pricing will move on March 8 from $515/st to $595/st.
Pacific Northwest: Anhydrous ammonia continued to be quoted at $435-$440/st DEL in the region.
Western Canada: Anhydrous ammonia remained at $700-$745/mt DEL in Western Canada, with the lower numbers reported to dealers in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Black Sea: The market is looking a bit tighter after the Tampa price moved up last month. Asian sources say more plants in the area should be restarting as soon as prices rise.
Sources report that deals among producers late last month indicate the tightness of supplies.
The lower end of the market has moved out of the $360s/mt FOB. Sources also say the upper end shifted, but did not point to anything other than pricing ideas from producers.
Sources are comfortable calling the market at $370-$380/mt FOB. Producers say $390-$400/mt FOB is a more reasonable range.
Middle East: The area remains tight. Producers continue to point to a strong Asian market and firmer prices in the U.S. as reasons they will not back off on their pricing ideas.
Producers have been arguing that the new price out of the region should be $400/mt FOB. As February closed and March opened, however, no one could point to cargoes being sold at that level.
The consensus is that $400/mt FOB should be hit this month. For now, the price range has tightened in line with the Yuzhnyy market to $370-$380/mt FOB.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: The granular barge market last week sank as low as $310-$312/st FOB, according to most sources. Most large sellers were not too keen on cutting prices as the season approached, and the lower prices were blamed on just a couple of sellers shedding a few barges.
By week’s end, sources said the market saw a bounce to new sales in the $315-$317/st FOB range. Sources credited these to the coming of sunshine in some areas, and said this prompted more and more inquiries about product availability. As one source noted, “Spring is ahead of us, not behind us.”
Eastern Cornbelt: Urea prices were down slightly from last report. One supplier reported March 2 at $340/st FOB Peoria, Ill., and Cincinnati, Ohio, while other sources continued to report dealer pricing in the $350-$355/st FOB range last week.
Western Cornbelt: Some lower urea prices prompted one source to refer to the influence of a “weather market” in the Midwest. With nothing moving due to snow accumulation and rainfall, he observed, those with inventory are getting antsy and are testing the market with a price drop to see if it sparks some movement. He added that this tactic “usually has the reverse effect,” because potential buyers see the price falling and think it will go lower.
The granular urea market was quoted at $335/st FOB St. Louis, Mo., on the low end last week, while Iowa sources continued to quote the upper end of the market at the $355/st FOB level to the dealer. The urea market FOB Enid and Inola, Okla., was also reported at the $335/st FOB level.
California: Granular urea remained at $375-$390/st FOB and $400-$420/st DEL in the state.
Pacific Northwest: Granular urea was quoted at $395-$410/st DEL in the region, reflecting a slight increase from last report.
Western Canada: Granular urea pricing was unchanged at $491-$516/mt DEL in the region, depending on location. Dealer reference levels were quoted as high as $525/mt DEL in some areas.
India: The ministries of agriculture and finance spent the better part of last week talking with representatives of the main buying houses – IPL, MMTC, and STC – to develop a buying plan for the upcoming application season.
Sources speculate that once the intra-Indian talks are finished, each buying house will be targeting producers in the Black Sea and Arab Gulf. The talks at that point will be to try to secure a reasonable – to the buyer – price for India’s annual urea needs.
The houses tried this tactic several times in the past, to no avail. The last time was in 2008, when Middle East urea was about $400/mt FOB instead of the current low-$300s/mt FOB. If a deal can be made, said one trader, then the amount of urea purchased by tenders will be significantly lower than in previous years. Few think, however, that the buyers will be successful in their efforts.
One thing that might help India in international urea talks this time is the change in the subsidy program. Instead of covering the costs of a specific product, such as urea, government subsidies will be based on nutrient content. Sources say this arrangement could encourage farmers to use fertilizers more in line with the soil’s actual needs. For example, buyers could look at more purchases of ammonium sulfate instead of urea.
If the government can convince producers that the urea intake will be less this year, they might be able to convince the producers to sign an annual contract.
The increase in global production will mean more tons are available at a time when the world’s largest single importer could be looking at reducing the amount of urea it buys. Sources say producers might be interested in ensuring a piece of the action by signing a long-term deal with the Indian buying agents.
Others in the industry dismiss the impact of the new subsidy plan on imports this year. One trader noted that even with the massive publicity campaign the government is waging to educate farmers about the plan, the 2010 demand will most likely remain the same.
Next year may be a different situation, however, as the new subsidy plan sinks in.
Sources say the discussions the buyers will have with producers will take a couple of weeks. After that, they will have to report to the agriculture and finance ministries before calling a tender. The government agencies will then need another week or so to figure out how much urea should be imported in the first round of tenders.
Industry observers are now saying the first tender call should not come until early April.
Black Sea: For many in the industry, the bottom was hit as
February ended. Prices are now matching that March feeling
of roaring in like a lion.
Producers started the month’s discussions at $280/mt FOB and ended this past week with pricing ideas of $285-$290/mt FOB.
Sources report business was done in the low-$280s/mt FOB, but not yet at $285/mt FOB. Traders figure $285-290/mt FOB will be done this week.
The move in prices came as Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, and other Latin American countries bought tons when the market hit its nadir.
The Latin American buyers took cargoes based on their immediate needs rather than looking to build up reserves.
The fluctuations of the market have made buyers nervous about taking any major forward purchases. Buyers have been buying in a hand-to-mouth manner for the past few months.
Middle East: Producers continue to claim they are comfortable and see no reason to lower prices.
Proponents of the buyers point to the latest granular cargo sold to Australia by PIC at a reported $325/mt FOB.
Traders are quick to point out, however, that Australian sales have always earned producers a higher netback. Sources say that even with the run-up in prices from Yuzhnyy, the Middle East market has only edged up slightly.
The granular market has moved up to $315/mt FOB, but some sources report that with a little hard negotiating a lower price might be achieved.
Prills remain at a $10/mt discount to area granular.
The issue that will ultimately affect the pricing will be how many tons India buys. If the price comes under more pressure because of hesitancy by other buyers to step up, sources say the producers might be interested in hearing the pricing ideas the Indians have for long-term contracts instead of regular tenders.
Indonesia: With the last sale from Pusri concluded, Asian sources say no more exports from Indonesia are expected soon. Of course, many of these same sources were saying no more sales would occur until the second half of the year right up to the time Pusri announced its selling tender.
China: The domestic market appears to be softening. The upside for the producers, however, is that the price of coal and natural gas also seem to be easing off.
Producers were hard pressed during the winter as input prices were rising while urea prices were steady or soft. Some plants reportedly sold their product below production cost in order to keep running.
With spring around the corner, coal and gas are not needed as much for home and office heating. The subsequent price drops are a welcome sight to the producers.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: UAN barge price ideas were mixed last week. While some said barges were under pressure and that sales had occurred as low as $207/st FOB, others were bullish, saying the market was heading to $220/st and beyond. Most sources remained in the middle, seeing no real change from last week’s $210-$215/st FOB. Sellers overall seem to be upbeat about the prospects for their product, but some appeared to be getting impatient for movement in both product and price. As with urea, sunny weather in some locations was giving them hope.
Eastern Cornbelt: UAN pricing was up slightly from last report. Sources tagged the dealer market for UAN-32 at $250-$272/st ($7.81-$8.50/unit) FOB, with the low reported out of spot river locations in Illinois. The upper end reflected new dealer reference prices from some suppliers, although no new sales were confirmed at the higher numbers.
Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was pegged at $248-$265/st ($7.75-$8.28/unit) FOB regional terminals, with dealer reference levels quoted as high as $272/st ($8.50/unit) FOB based on new replacement costs.
California: UAN-32 was pegged at $242-$255/st ($7.56-$7.97/unit) FOB in the region, with delivered UAN-32 at $270-$275/st ($8.44-$8.59/unit) in the state. Effective March 4, Agrium’s UAN-32 postings moved to $258/st ($8.06/unit) FOB Sacramento, $280/st ($8.75/unit) truck-DEL in Central California, and $285/st ($8.91/unit) truck-DEL in Northern California. Those postings reflected a $10/st increase from Agrium’s Feb. 17 list prices.
Pacific Northwest: Regional sources tagged the UAN-32 market firmly in the $270-$285/st ($8.44-$8.91/unit) DEL range last week following posted increases in late February and early March.
IRM’s postings for UAN-32 moved on Feb. 23 to $285/st ($8.91/unit) DEL in eastern Oregon and Washington from terminals in St. Helens, Portland, Pasco, Umatilla, and Central Ferry. Effective March 4, Agrium’s UAN-32 postings moved to $270/st ($8.44/unit) DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County; $275/st ($8.59/unit) rail-DEL and $280/st ($8.75/unit) truck-DEL in southern Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County; and $290/st ($9.06/unit) DEL in Montana and northern Wyoming. Agrium’s UAN-28 postings in Montana and northern Wyoming moved on March 4 to $254/st ($9.07/unit) DEL. Those levels reflect a $10/st increase from Agrium’s Feb. 17 UAN postings, and a $20/st increase from the Feb. 3 list prices.
Western Canada: UAN-28 was steady at $294-$310/mt ($10.50-$11.07/unit) DEL, with the low in Manitoba and the upper end in Alberta. Dealer postings were referenced as high as $320/mt ($11.43/unit) DEL in Western Canada.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: New barge sales were reported within the $252-$253/st FOB range. Sources said $260/st FOB had been quoted for prompt and forward as far out as May, but with no takers.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate remained at $285-$290/st FOB in the region.
California: No market was reported for ammonium nitrate in California. CAN-17 pricing, however, was unchanged at $255-$275/st FOB in the state.
Pacific Northwest: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at a nominal $365/st rail-DEL last week. CAN-17 pricing remained at $245-$250/st FOB and $260/st DEL in the region.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $230-$235/st FOB or DEL in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was reported at $225-$230/st FOB in the region.
Effective March 8, American Plant Food’s granular ammonium sulfate postings in Texas will firm to $205/st FOB Freeport, $215/st FOB Galena Park, $230/st FOB Fort Worth, $235/st FOB Mermentau, La., and $245/st FOB Littlefield. APF’s coarse grade ammonium sulfate postings will firm on that date to $195/st FOB Freeport, $205/st FOB Galena Park, $220/st FOB Fort Worth, and $235/st FOB Littlefield, with standard grade moving to $190/st FOB Freeport and $230/st FOB Littlefield. The company’s N-Pac Compacted postings will firm on March 8 to $220/st FOB Galena Park.
California: Ammonium sulfate was steady at $210-$247/st FOB, depending on grade and location.
Pacific Northwest: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $230-$240/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest region, reflecting a slight increase from last report.
Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $325-$335/mt DEL to the dealer, with postings at the $340/mt DEL level on the upper end.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: The Central Florida DAP market trailed both the export and the NOLA DAP barge markets last week, and that situation was not likely to change anytime soon. The Northeast has seen even worse weather than the Midwest, and will probably take a little longer before the spring season begins.
Another factor in a slower start in the East may be higher dealer inventories there. Most want to see some empty space in their bins before they start reordering, and that may not come until early April.
Contract shipments of railcars were continuing last week, but the only prompt sales found were for trucks, which were running at the top of the range of $410/st FOB.
Dealers in some areas of the South that are served by Central Florida were recoiling in horror at the higher prices. One large trader pointed out that the situation was unlikely to impact the price rise of phosphate, because the area does not account for a majority of consumption, or even close to it.
On a very positive note, a trader noted that a customer in Ohio said his area had about two weeks in which trucks could get onto the fields to spread phosphate, and farmers were applying more than normal.
The Central Florida DAP price range last week increased from $400-$405/st FOB the previous week to $405-$410/st FOB. Small buyers will likely pay the higher price. Truck sales of DAP were done at $410/st FOB. Mosaic’s posted price was $410/st FOB, while CF’s price was $405/st FOB. PCS Sales was charging market-based prices. Agrifos posted prices of $450/st FOB for DAP and $460/st FOB for MAP, but railcars were about $5/st FOB less, if available.
U.S. Gulf: Early in the last reporting period, beginning Feb. 26, barge prices had sagged from the previous week’s high of $424/st FOB and at least one NOLA DAP barge sold for $420/st FOB, but prices began a sharp trend upward shortly afterwards.
The run-up was credited to buys in relatively large numbers by both CF and Transammonia, but by the end of the week prices were beginning to soften. With the beginning of the spring season for most of the Midwest a few weeks away, sales to end users – i.e., dealers – will remain suppressed in the short term. CF was said to have bought about 10 NOLA DAP barges at prices ranging from $423/st FOB to $430/st FOB, and Trammo’s buy range was $425-$432/st FOB.
Signs still point to a bullish season. The all-important price of corn futures climbed during the week from a little over $3.50/bushel for December to about $4.13/bushel, before retreating slightly. That’s great news for farmers and really good news for fertilizer sellers, especially phosphate. Another promising sign was the amount of phosphate in Midwest dealers’ bins, which was believed to be half capacity or less. Farmers have skimped on phosphate and potash during the past two years, and cannot afford lower yields when corn prices are high.
In Oklahoma the spring season normally begins in February, but weather delayed farmers from getting into their fields – at least until last week, when activity was underway, along with increased phosphate sales. However, inventories were low there, and terminals could run short.
Both Central Florida and the Gulf markets will have to compete with the export market to obtain enough phosphate for the season, and the export market was still much more lucrative last week. At the same time, sulfur continued to be in extremely short supply, and that will limit phosphate production for at least the next three-to-six months. As a result, the long-term picture was for higher prices – although not into the absurd range of two years earlier.
Based on sales last week, the NOLA DAP barge price changed from the previous week’s range of $421-$424/st FOB to $420-$435/st FOB, but prices appeared to be weakening into the low-mid $430/st FOB range late in the week.
Eastern Cornbelt: The DAP market was pegged at $445-$455/st FOB regional warehouses, with MAP $15/st higher. An Indiana source confirmed spot offers of MAP at the $470/st mark FOB river warehouses in early March. The 10-34-0 market was quoted at $350-$365/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: DAP was tagged at $445-$455/st FOB, with MAP $15/st higher. 10-34-0 remained at $345-$355/st FOB in the region. Effective March 1, Agrium’s phosphoric acid postings firmed to $755/st rail-DEL for both super phosphoric acid (SPA) and merchant grade acid (MGA) in Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, the Dakotas, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, and Wyoming.
California: Effective March 1, phos acid postings firmed to $8.15/unit DEL in the state for both SPA and MGA, with Simplot referencing MGA at $8.35/unit FOB. Agrium’s phos acid postings moved on March 1 to $815/st rail-DEL for both SPA and MGA in Arizona and California.
DAP and MAP were up as well, with dealer pricing quoted at $485-$490/st FOB or DEL in the state. 16-20-0 was tagged at $324-$331/st FOB warehouses, up $5/st from last report.
A $10/st price hike was in effect for 10-34-0 in response to the phos acid increase, bringing the dealer market to $358-$379/st FOB in the state. Sources said another $10/st increase would take effect March 8 following the ammonia pricing increase, bringing 10-34-0 at that time to $368-$389/st FOB.
Pacific Northwest: SPA and MGA had firmed to $8.15/unit DEL in the region. Effective March 1, Agrium’s phos acid postings moved to $815/st rail-DEL for both SPA and MGA in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Nevada, up $30/st from February pricing levels.
DAP and MAP pricing had firmed to $485-$490/st FOB or DEL in the region, with talk from some sources of very tight supplies. 16-20-0 was up as well, to $319-$325/st DEL in the region. 10-34-0 pricing had climbed to $375-$385/st FOB in the region following the March 1 phos acid increase.
Western Canada: MAP pricing was steady at $582-$617/mt DEL to the dealer, depending on location, with the low reported in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and the upper end in Alberta and British Columbia. Dealer reference levels were as high as $625/mt DEL in the region.
10-34-0 was tagged at $470-$483/mt DEL in the region.
U.S. Export: Export phosphate sales from U.S. producers were absent last week, but Russia and Morocco were doing business in South America. However, most of the sales were for MAP, which was in short supply in this country.
Brazil was said to have purchased two vessels of phosphate from Russia and Morocco at a price of between $525/mt CFR and $530/mt CFR, while Argentina was said to have also made buys from Russia in the same range. The Russian phosphate was believed to have been sold by Ameropa, and possibly Gavilon.
India was expected to enter the market sometime soon, and Central and South America will continue to buy.
A source said wholesale phosphate prices in Australia were running $700/mt FOB, and close to $800/mt FOB for retail.
The export DAP price range last week continued at $505-$510/mt FOB. The prospect was for higher prices in the near future, although at a slower pace than during the past month or so.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: Although most of the recent potash sales to take place to dealers were concluded at the $390/st FOB mark, sources placed the current potash market in the $405-$420/st FOB range in early March, with the upper end reflecting producer postings.
Western Cornbelt: Potash was pegged at $395-$420/st FOB regional warehouses, with the low from spot resellers and the upper end reflecting producer postings.
California: Potash was steady at $440-$460/st DEL in California, depending on grade. Potassium nitrate pricing remained at $929-$996/st FOB, with the low for bulk tons and the upper end for bagged product.
The sulfate of potash (SOP) market was steady as well at $590-$610/st FOB for bulk tons, depending on grade and supplier. Great Salt Lake Minerals Corp. announced a $30/st increase in the selling price of all SOP specialty fertilizer products, effective April 1. The increase will apply to both standard and granulated products shipped to all locations worldwide, the company said.
Pacific Northwest: Potash was pegged at $435-$445/st FOB regional warehouses and $440-$450/st DEL, depending on grade and location. Effective March 1, potash postings from Intrepid Potash FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, moved up $30/st to $385/st for 60 percent standard and $390/st for 60 percent granular.
Western Canada: Potash to Canadian customers FOB Saskatchewan mines remained at $431-$437/mt FOB, depending on grade.
Russia: Government agencies are considering a 15 percent tax on potash exports, according to a report this week in The Moscow Times.
SULFUR
Tampa: Sulfur demand continued strong last week and supplies remained anemic, as buyers scraped together what little bits were available. Some suggested that phosphate producers might have to limit capacity due to the shortage during the next few, critical months.
When negotiations for the second quarter’s pricing start in April, the cost of molten sulfur for Tampa delivery will have to go up – and probably a lot, according to players. Adnoc raised the price at Abu Dhabi another $45/mt FOB, to $210/mt FOB. Coupled with the $55/mt FOB hike on Feb. 1, the price has increased $100/mt FOB in just a bit over a month.
Spot deals were made last week at levels that would result in a price as high as $200/lt DEL to Tampa, although that was not an actual spot price for Tampa. However, it may be an indication of what could be in store.
Fortunately for phosphate producers, the price of their product has been rising steadily, and will probably continue to do so into the spring season. With higher prices for raw materials, such as ammonia and sulfur, that will help to ease the pain.
Refinery production rates continued to improve last week and were up to about 82 percent of capacity, as the summer driving season grew nearer. In addition, the economy appeared to be on the rebound. Refiners were continuing to see slim margins, but a boost in sulfur prices might help.
Martin’s sulfur barge, the Margaret Sue, was back at sea last week, after damage suffered during rough weather was repaired. Still, the lost deliveries to Tampa cannot be made up.
Vancouver: Semester contracts were in the process of being negotiated last week, and projections were the new prices would be in line with current spot prices, which were in the $150-$160/mt FOB range.
India: Recent imports reflect higher prices. Swiss Singapore reportedly sold 6-8000 mt to MMTC at US$227/mt CFR Vizag – a new import high. In another sale, Transfert agreed to supply 25-30,000 mt to Coromandel at $190/mt CFR Kakinada.