A week of warm weather pushed numerous Midwest rivers to flood stage last week as the region’s large snowpack began to melt and ice jams impeded water flow.
The Red River between North Dakota and Minnesota was at 31.21 feet in Fargo at midweek, and is expected to reach 38 feet by March 21 – perilously close to last year’s record of 40.8 feet. Flood stage at Fargo is 18 feet, with “major stage” flooding beginning at 30 feet. There have never been back-to-back years of major-to-record flooding along the Red River in its 110-year history, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Although many fields were under water along the river last week, it is too early to tell if the current flooding will affect spring planting in the region. If spring rains compound planting delays in April and May, the picture could change drastically. Last year’s wet spring and historic flooding left almost 1.9 million acres unplanted in North Dakota, according to USDA’s Risk Management Agency.
In Mitchell, S.D., the James River was forecast to reach 25.3 feet by March 19, tying the record for that location. In St. Paul, Minn., the Mississippi River was forecast to reach flood stage by March 20 and “major stage” by March 22, according to the weather service. Forecasters said the river should stay well below the record of 26 feet in that location, however.
In Iowa, ice jams caused the Raccoon River to rise by as much as three feet in just several minutes last week. Des Moines officials closed some low-lying roads and brought in extra pumps as it braced for flooding from the Raccoon and Des Moines Rivers, both of which were at moderate to major flooding levels at midweek.
At Linn Grove, Iowa, the Little Sioux River set a record of 22.53 feet and was still rising as the week progressed. The Mississippi River at Burlington, Iowa, was expected to reach 16.3 feet by the weekend, more than a foot above the 15-foot flood stage. The Iowa River reached 22 feet at Columbus Junction on March 17 and was expected to climb to 24.3 feet in Wapello by March 19, more than 2 feet above the 22-foot flood stage.
The National Weather Service in the Quad Cities of Davenport and Bettendorf, Iowa, and Rock Island and Moline, Ill., reported on March 14 that all area rivers were at flood stage. The Mississippi River at Davenport was at 11.76 feet March 17, just below the 15-foot flood stage, but was expected to rise to 13.6 feet by March 24.
A Missouri source reported minor flooding along the Grand and Missouri Rivers last week, noting that the Grand came within three feet of topping levies in some locations.
More than a third of the contiguous U.S. faces a high or above average flood risk this spring, the National Weather Service reported Tuesday. “We are looking at potentially historic flooding in some parts of the country this spring,” said Jane Lubchenco, head of NOAA. Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas face the greatest flood risk.
NOAA noted several factors contributing to this year’s flood threat, including a snowpack that is more extensive than in 2009, and is among the top 10 since World War II; above normal stream flows; December precipitation that was up to four times above average; ground that is frozen to a depth as much as three feet below the surface in some locations; and milder temperatures since mid-March that have contributed to a rapid snow melt.
There were signs of optimism, however. While precipitation was forecast for parts of Iowa and Nebraska over the weekend, most Midwest locations enjoyed a relatively dry week in combination with the warm temperatures.
On March 17, the Mississippi River crested just north of St. Louis and the Missouri River began to fall. The St. Louis area was experiencing only minor flooding last week, while Hannibal, Mo., Quincy, Ill., and Chester, Ill., saw moderate flooding. Forecasters said they expected the Mississippi River in most Missouri locations to stay above flood stage for 7-10 days, with most of the flooding confined to low-lying and agricultural ground.
The Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt, Iowa, was near its crest of 12.79 feet on March 17. Water levels there were expected to fall gradually after that, but remain at about 12.5 feet until the following week, or about a foot-and-a-half above flood stage.
The Skunk River in Augusta, Iowa, was expected to drop below the 15-foot flood stage by March 19, after cresting at 25.15 feet over the previous weekend. That crest was less than 2 feet short of the record set in 1973. The Des Moines River crested at 22.17 feet at St. Francisville, Iowa, on March 14, but was expected to fall below the 18-foot flood stage late on March 18.
The Rock River in Iowa was also gradually falling last week after cresting at just over 13 feet on March 14. Forecasters said it was expected to drop below the 11-foot flood stage by the weekend.
The upper Midwest was not the only region battling floods last week. A severe storm that combined near-hurricane-force winds with heavy rain pummeled the Northeast on March 13-15, causing at least nine deaths and leaving nearly a half million customers without electricity in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. The rain also spurred a rapid snow melt for many locations in the region, which brought rivers and streams out of their banks and prompted flood warnings throughout the Mid-Atlantic and New England states.
Local reports said the Potomac River at Point of Rocks in northern Virginia reached major flood stage in the wake of the storm, while the Merrimack in central New England, the James River in Virginia, and the upper Ohio River rose to minor or moderate flood stages last week. The Susquehanna River in Pennsylvania was expected to remain below flood stage.