By all accounts the 78th Annual International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) Conference, held in Paris May 31 to June 2, was a success. The organization said it had a record turnout, with unofficial reports putting the attendance at more than 1,600. And despite the global economic situation, no one walked away depressed.
The lack of depression, however, did not mean that delegates were giddy about the current state of the fertilizer industry. Producers, end users, and traders all agreed that the market situation for N, P, and K is both encouraging and worrying.
Recent declines in the price of ammonia and urea had many in those markets concerned about how much further down things could go. For the record, most delegates felt there was a little more room for a decline – but not much.
The phosphate producers felt comfortable following large long-term sales, but cautious about what the future holds in Southeast Asia and the Americas.
If you were a potash seller, you were upset that prices have come off. If you were a potash buyer, you were upset the price did not fall more.
All in all, despite the generally bearish mood, buyers were not as shell shocked as they were in 2008, and sellers did not think the world was coming to an end as many did following the crash in prices in 2009.
And all was not deal-making and temperature taking. As usual, the IFA team assembled a top-rate lineup of guest speakers to discuss the current issues facing the fertilizer industry. While buyers and sellers met at the four conference hotels to discuss potential deals affecting the next three to six months, leaders of the industry laid out their long-term views of supply and demand in the fertilizer industry.
Eduardo Daher, executive director of the Brazilian Crop Protection Association, told Business Week that despite the desires of the Brazilian government, his country will not be able to attain self-sufficiency in fertilizers anytime soon. He particularly cited the limited natural gas resources in Brazil.
“Brazil will never be self-sufficient,” Business Week quoted Daher. “We will never reach the point of self sufficiency in potash. Forget about nitrogen, we do not solve the gas problem. The gas is not there.”
IFA also presented its International Crop Nutrition Award – renamed the IFA Norman Borlaug Award – to Dr. Jin Jiyun of the Soil and Fertilizer Institute at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. The award was renamed in 2010 to honor Dr. Norman Borlaug, who pioneered many technologies and systems that increase crop yield. Dr. Jin was honored for his work with farmers to help them improve fertilizer efficiency and crop production.
Panel discussions ranged from the annual demand and supply forecasts to discussions of the impact subsidies have on changing fertilizer use. Delegates also received a preview of a soon-to-be released 10-year agricultural outlook study from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization.