USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released July 9, said beginning U.S. corn stocks for 2010/11 are down 125 million bushels due to increased feed and residual use, which more than offset a reduction for ethanol. USDA pegged 2009-2010 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.478 million bushels, down 128 million bushels from its June estimate of 1.603 billion bushels.
With the forecast for harvested area down, corn production was lowered 125 million bushels, leaving supplies down 250 million bushels, 60 million below the 2009/10 record.
USDA projected a 50 million bushel drop in corn exports for 2010/11 as tighter domestic supplies, strong demand from ethanol production, and rising prices reduce the export competitiveness of U.S. corn.
Corn use for ethanol was lowered 50 million bushels, reflecting the latest ethanol production data from the Energy Information Administration, which suggested that June production, while up from April, will not reach March’s record pace. Ending corn stocks for 2010/11 are projected down 200 million bushels at 1,373 million bushels, 105 million below the 2009/10 projection.
The season-average farm price for corn is projected 15 cents higher on both ends of the range, to $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel, the report said.
As for soybeans, U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 was projected at 100.8 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from last month, with increased soybean production accounting for most of the change. Soybean production is projected at 3.345 billion bushels, up 35 million due to increased harvested area, which was estimated at a record 78 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report (GM July 4, p. 14).
The soybean yield is projected at 42.9 bushels/acre, unchanged from last month.
Increased exports and crush offset increased supplies, leaving projected 2010/11 ending stocks at 360 million bushels, unchanged from last month. The report said higher soybean exports reflect increased import projections for China for 2010/11.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.10 to $9.60 per bushel, up 10 cents on both ends of the range.
U.S. soybean exports for 2009/10 are projected at a record 1.46 billion bushels, up 5 million from last month, in part reflecting additional sales to China. Soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 175 million bushels, down 10 million.