University Park, Penn.-Two USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) researchers have teamed up to develop a web-based “fertilizer forecast” that produces 24-hour and 5-day fertilizer runoff forecasts that are as user-friendly as getting the weather report on television. Hydrologist Tony Buda and soil scientist Peter Kleinman with ARS’s pasture systems and watershed management research unit here are using National Weather Service predictions of precipitation, soil moisture, and other data to design a simple hydrologic model that indicates the probability of field runoff occurrence. As part of this work, they are analyzing how runoff measurements in different Pennsylvania regions correlate with different weather service data sets for the same areas. For instance, the scientists have found that soil moisture forecasts are a strong indicator of nutrient runoff potential in fields underlain by fragipans, which are dense subsurface soil layers that can block water movement through soil. But at sites with other soil characteristics, runoff potential is much more strongly associated with other variables, such as forecasts of rainfall amounts. The team hopes that when their “forecast” is ready, it will give farmers a user-friendly tool that can be used to optimize fertilizer runoff management and enhance water quality.
Transparency Across the Fertilizer Value-Chain