All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Aquirian AN Emulsion Plant Licensed

Ammonium Nitrate, Australia, News Briefs, South Korea

Specialist mining services provider Aquirian Ltd., Perth, Western Australia, on March 12 announced that the licensing submission for the 110,000 mt/y Wubin Ammonium Nitrate Emulsion Plant in Wubin, Western Australia, is complete and the license has been granted to the company’s subsidiary, Western Energetics Pty Ltd., by the Department of Energy, Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety (DEMIRS).

“We look forward to completing the financial settlement and formal acquisition of the plant as we restart production at the facility over the coming weeks,” said Aquirian Managing Director David Kelley.

The licensing approval was one of the final conditions for the financial settlement and ownership transfer of the plant to Aquirian. The company announced the purchase of the facility from South Korean conglomerate Hanwha in October 2023. The company said it paid A$9.6 million, with March 2023 independent valuations at $15 million, which indicated a replacement cost of $18 million.

The facility was built and commissioned in 2020 and is production-ready. It was put into care and maintenance in 2021 as part of Hanwha’s strategic decision to exit the bulk explosives market in Australia. Hanwha sold its other emulsion production facilities in Queensland and New South Wales to Orica Ltd. earlier in 2023.

Aquirian said the Wubin facility has 1,500 mt of storage with plans for 10,000 mt. It said the plant has access to 1.25 million mt/y of explosives demand in Western Australia. The company said it has experienced significant interest in the facility’s capacity to supply emulsions and storage to a broad range of potential customers, with several commercial discussions ongoing.

PT Pupuk Indonesia Invests in Domestic Production

Ammonia, Asia Pacific, Indonesia, Methanol, News Briefs, NPK, Urea

State-owned PT Pupuk Indonesia Holding Co. (Persero) will invest more than $6 billion over the next five years to boost domestic fertilizer supply in a bid to improve the country’s food security, particularly in the eastern regions, according to Bloomberg, citing an interview with PT Pupuk Indonesia’s President Director Rahmad Pribadi.

The holding company is also actively engaging with potential partners and likely M&A targets to boost its presence in Asia Pacific, Pribadi told Bloomberg. He did not provide details, but the company’s PT Pupuk Kalimantan Timur (Pupuk Kaltim) business unit has reportedly been in negotiations with Australia’s Incitec Pivot Ltd. (IPL) since last summer to buy IPL’s fertilizer business (GM Feb. 16, p. 34).

PT Pupuk Indonesia has not publicly commented on the reports and IPL has not disclosed the identity of the company it is negotiating with. In a business update in February, IPL said the process of the potential sale was “progressing but discussions were incomplete.” The value of the proposed deal has been put at around A$1.5 billion (approximately $981 million at current exchange rates).

Pribadi in an interview with NikkeiAsia last May indicated the company was actively looking at overseas acquisition opportunities, particularly of phosphate and potash assets (GM July 28, 2023).

In terms of domestic expansion, Pribadi said PT Pupuk Indonesia plans to spend 100 trillion rupiah (approximately $6.4 billion at current exchange rates) over the next five years and is considering debt financing or strategic equity partners to fund the expansion.

The company’s expansion program includes a new $1.2 billion ammonia and urea fertilizer plant project in Fakfak in Papua province by Pupuk Kaltim (GM Oct. 20, 2023), as well as $640 million of upgrades to the Palembang complex in South Sumatra operated by the PT Pupuk Sriwidjaja Palembang business unit.

“We need it to improve food security in our eastern regions by providing affordable fertilizer with less logistics cost,” Pribadi said. He highlighted that Indonesia’s rice imports surged sevenfold last year, and the government is issuing more import permits this year as production lags behind demand.

Construction of the Fakfak plant will start next year with production set to start in early 2028, he said. In the interview with NikkeiAsia in May 2023, Pribadi said the planned new facility will have capacity to produce 825,000 mt/y of ammonia and 1.1 million mt/y of urea.

Pupuk Kaltim is already Indonesia’s largest ammonia and urea producer and one of the largest fertilizer producers in Southeast Asia. Current output is put at some 3.4 million mt/y of urea, 2.7 million mt/y of ammonia, and 300,000 mt/y of NPK.

Across all of its business units, PT Pupuk Indonesia has fertilizer production capacity of some 14.5 million mt/y, including 9.36 million mt/y of urea and 3.88 million mt/y of NPK, according to its website. In addition, it has 7.01 million mt/y of ammonia production capacity, as well as 1.6 million mt/y for “asam fosfat.”

The holding company is targeting 8.5 million mt of urea output this year and 4.2 million mt of NPK fertilizers output, up from total fertilizer output of 11.6 million mt last year.

In terms of other new projects, PT Pupuk Indonesia is also looking at building a methanol plant in Aceh that will get its gas supply from the offshore Andaman project, which is expected to start pumping gas in 2028.

According to this week’s report, PT Pupuk Indonesia has selected advisors for a proposed initial public offering (IPO) of Pupuk Kaltim “pending a better market situation and approval from the state-owned Enterprises Ministry.”

Reports emerged early last year that PT Pupuk Indonesia was considering selling primary shares representing a 10-20% stake in Pupuk Kaltim, with the offering to take place in Jakarta (GM Jan. 6, 2023). According to the reports, the IPO could raise between $500 million and $1 billion, with the proceeds used for capacity expansion if the offering proceeds. PT Pupuk Indonesia owns 99.99% of Pupuk Kaltim.

SQM, Codelco Extend Deadline

Chile, News Briefs

Chile’s SQM Inc. and state-owned Codelco agreed to amend a nonbinding Memorandum of Understanding to extend the deadline from March 31 to May 21 to agree to and sign definitive partnership documents, SQM said in a filing.

A framework agreement had been reached in December (GM Jan. 5, p. 1). The deadline extension comes as SQM’s second-largest shareholder, China’s Tianqi, seeks further information on the proposed Codelco arrangement in an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting on March 21, according to Bloomberg.

Ammonia

Ammonia, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northwestern Europe, Pacific N.W., South Korea, Tampa, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

No indications were reported for the April Tampa ammonia price. The market remains at March’s $445/mt CFR settlement for now, unchanged from February.

US Imports:

Ammonia imports for July-January dropped 11.9% year-over-year, according to US Census Bureau data, to 1.19 million st from 1.35 million st. January imports were 184,150 st, down 15.5% from 217,889 st in the year-ago period.

Canada sent 690,593 st to the US in the July-January fertilizer year-to-date, Trinidad and Tobago shipped 443,735 st, and Saudi Arabia sent 22,091 st.

US Exports:

Ammonia exports for January firmed 21.0% year-over-year, to 127,526 st from 105,361 st. July-January shipments were 7.3% lower, however, at 769,004 st compared to 829,589 st through the same period of 2022-2023.

Morocco remained the top US export destination in July-January with 243,634 st received, followed by Norway with 146,786 st. Chile took 83,115 st, ahead of 56,162 st to Mexico.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices in the Eastern Cornbelt were pegged at $625-$645/st FOB during the week, up from last week’s high of $635/st FOB, with reports of limited prompt tons available and product being shifted from one terminal to another to compensate for spot outages. While the low was confirmed at Lima, Ohio, most terminals in Illinois and Indiana were firmly in the $635-$645/st FOB range for any available tons.

Western Cornbelt:

Sources continued to report ammonia offers in the $615-$635/st range FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.

California:

Ammonia list prices in California remained at $670/st DEL for anhydrous and $186-$196/st FOB for aqua ammonia.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest edged up to $625-$650/st FOB, with reports of rail-DEL offers in the same range. The aqua ammonia market was quoted at $168/st FOB in the region, up $8/st from last report.

Western Canada:

The latest spring ammonia offers in Western Canada were quoted at C$1,150/mt DEL, up from C$1,100-$1,110/mt DEL at last report.

Northwest Europe:

A sale of Algerian ammonia into Europe reported at $380/mt FOB now has sources estimating the Northwest Europe price at $440-$450/mt CFR, off $10/mt from the prior week and in line with the general softening trend in global ammonia prices.

Natural gas prices in Europe continue to hover around $8/mmBtu, but the warm weather could add some downward pressure, which may result in cheaper feedstock costs for the European ammonia and downstream industry.

South Korea:

While rarely a price leader, the South Korean ammonia market is often seen as a benchmark for international market activity.

Trade Data Monitor reported January-February imports at 202,000 mt, up marginally from the 186,000 mt received through the first two months of 2023. Indonesian ammonia accounted for 52% of imports with 105,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia with 97,000 mt. February imports were 77,000 mt, off from 83,000 mt in February 2023.

Following a stretch of time when buyers took only what was required under their contracts, the slight uptick in imports may be an indication that ammonia demand is returning to the regional market, one trader said.

China:

The lower price of ammonia in Asia, along with apparent stepped-up demand for the product in domestic markets, was reflected in a sizeable drop in ammonia exports and increased imports recorded in January and February.

January-February ammonia exports totaled 14,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, down from the 103,000 mt shipped one year earlier, when prices were higher. February exports were 5,200 mt, falling from 52,000 mt last February, with Vietnam taking 5,100 mt.

Imports for the first two months of the year were noted at 96,000 mt, up 72% from 56,000 mt in January-February 2023. February imports were pegged at 44,000 mt, up from the 31,000 mt received in February 2023.

Urea

Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Mediterranean, Middle East, Pacific N.W., South Korea, Southeast Asia, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Urea, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea prices drifted lower this week. New business was reported $395-$406/st FOB for March tons, down from last week’s $403-$417/st FOB for March, with the higher numbers quoted for prompt/loaded barges.

April 1-5 trades were reported at $390/st FOB, compared with last week’s $382-$385/st FOB, but the market dropped off after that, with first-half April business pegged at $354-$369/st FOB, down from $375-$380/st last week. Full April business was reported at $342-$351/st FOB.

US Imports:

Urea imports for July-January firmed 9.5%, to 2.14 million st from the year-ago 1.95 million st. January imports moved up 52.4%, to 489,993 st from 321,477 st in January 2023. July-January imports from Russia were 636,087 st, while Qatar sent 531,009 st. Algeria moved into third place with 323,262 st, ahead of both 261,925 st from Saudi Arabia and Canada’s 215,410 st.

US Exports:

January urea exports were 74,378 st, a 50.9% decrease from the year-ago 151,570 st. Exports softened to 518,975 st in July-January, off 49.0% from the prior 1.02 million st. Exports to Canada totaled 324,658 st in July-January, followed by 80,149 st to Mexico and 77,039 st to Chile.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea slipped to the $450-$460/st level FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals and reflecting a $5/st drop from last week. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market remained at $455-$460/st FOB, unchanged from the prior week.

In the Great Lakes region, the latest urea offers in Michigan remained at $490-$500/st FOB and $500-$510/st DEL on a spot basis for March-April tons.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices were quoted at $445-$465/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the high confirmed in Iowa and the low reported at St. Louis, Mo. The latest offers in the Northern Plains moved to $480-$485/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., while Southern Plains pricing in late March included $495-$510/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla.

California:

Granular urea pricing in California strengthened to $545/st FOB Stockton, up $10/st from last report, with prilled urea remaining at the $580/st level FOB San Diego. Rail-DEL urea prices were confirmed at the $560-$570/st level during the week.

Pacific Northwest:

Urea prices were up $25/st in the Pacific Northwest, to $525/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., and $530/st FOB Aurora, Ore. Railcars, while reportedly hard to find in the region, were pegged in the $580-$590/st DEL range in late March.

Western Canada:

Delivered urea in Western Canada was quoted at C$770-$780/mt, up from the prior C$750-$765/mt range.

India: 

Industry players spent the week making their best guesses about what might happen in the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) urea tender slated to close on March 27. A lot of that talk will settle down as traders crunch the numbers and prepare their final offers, sources said.

Shortly after the tender was announced, some players speculated that RCF would take as many as 2 million mt at prices in the upper-$350s/mt CFR. As the week progressed, however, talk moved toward both fewer tons being purchased and a much smaller price increase from the $316-$329/mt CFR achieved in the previous tender.

A growing number of traders are now speculating that the final take will be no more than 1 million mt, with a price in the mid- to upper-$330s/mt CFR.

The lower estimated take would make sense under current market conditions, sources said. A smaller purchase will not absorb the growing surplus of urea that is already forming in the Arab Gulf, while additional product is expected to be made available from China after mid-May, adding to the amount of urea looking for a home. This situation is expected to give India a chance to secure many more tons at a lower price in a follow-up tender.

Traders also noted that India is under no great pressure to buy, even though the government reported February urea production at 2.3 million mt, down from the six-month average of 2.8 million mt.

At the same time, the country reportedly has at least 7 million mt of urea on hand for the current application season. Sources said the push to complete a large purchase in the tender is mostly political. National elections begin in April, players noted. It is beneficial to the current government’s reelection plans to be seen as aggressively importing urea whether it is needed or not, said one trader.

The Indian buying houses will want to be very aggressive in each of their tenders, while the government will be looking to get as many tons as possible for as cheaply as is feasible. While that attitude has long been shared by India’s urea buyers, this time there will be less money available to work with.

The government reduced the fertilizer subsidy in the provisional budget set to take effect on April 1. Once the results of the election are known, the new government will enact a permanent budget for the rest of the fiscal year, though no increases in fertilizer subsidies are expected to be part of the final plan.

As the old fiscal year winds down, the government announced it was renewing its permission for Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL), National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL), and RCF to act as the country’s sole buyers of agricultural urea. There were some rumors that IPL might be dropped, but the company was ultimately included in the renewal order.

Black Sea:

Prilled urea shipping from the Black Sea was noted at $300/mt FOB. Sources continue to expect Russia to be a major player in the RCF/India tender set to close next week.

Mediterranean:

Urea demand in the Mediterranean was muted. Spanish and Italian buyers are largely out of the import market, with product still available at warehouses. The consensus among sources is that $400/mt CFR is no longer workable and bids in the $380s/mt CFR have emerged, which are in sync with Egyptian indications of $350/mt FOB.

As a result, the granular urea spot market dropped to $380-$390/mt CFR this week. In nearby Turkey, Iranian material is quoted at $355/mt CFR, but this sanctioned product falls outside of the Green Markets range.

Southeast Asia:

Tight availability continues to be the main theme in Southeast Asia, with Brunei now largely committed through April and the expectation that Petronas will have to catch up on contract shipments once Gurun and Bintulu return online, which could happen as early as this week.

Granular urea exports from Indonesia are not expected to pick up again until late April or early May. Sources said the government is not planning to issue any new granular export permits until it has fully assessed the country’s domestic needs and supply. So far, media reports from the area indicate there are more than adequate supplies on hand.

Prilled urea continues to be offered for export, however. The latest offering from Gresik showed bids in the low-$320s/mt FOB, down from a Gresik deal closed earlier this month at $355/mt FOB.

Granular urea is typically sold at a $5-$10/mt premium to prilled, leaving the estimated granular price at $325-$330/mt FOB, significantly below Indonesia’s last granular sale at $386/mt FOB. Sources described the upper-$320s/mt FOB price as fitting well with the rest of the global market.

Middle East:

Production facilities in the Arab Gulf are now said to be mostly back up and running. With major buyers in the US and Australia now reportedly stepping away from purchasing, surpluses are reportedly building.

Arab Gulf producers are expected to act as the main suppliers for the RCF tender closing on March 27. However, if RCF takes less than 1 million mt, as many are now predicting, the producers will find themselves holding excess tons without a home. To make their situation worse, Chinese urea is expected to become available in the global market by the second half of May, adding further pressure to the supply/demand equation.

For now, producers are closemouthed about pricing ideas, as are traders looking to secure product for the Indian tender. No new deals were reported to move the existing price.

Reports from North Africa and Europe indicated some small-lot sales done in the low-$350s/mt FOB for Egyptian granular urea. While no concluded business was confirmed, bids from Europe in the $380s/mt FOB – a level many consider to be realistic – would indicate pricing from Egypt in the $350s/mt FOB.

Even as buyers argue for pricing in the low-$350s/mt FOB, producers are reportedly saying the market is closer to $360/mt FOB. If nothing else, the comments from producers have further strengthened the argument for a lower price out of Egypt.

China:

Rumors are now circulating that the Chinese government will not accept any export-related paperwork for urea until May 1. Sources initially believed the government’s plan was to allow for paperwork to be accepted on April 15, so that exports might begin during the first week of May.

If the rumors are correct – and the market may not know until April 1 at the earliest – export applications will kick off on May 1. The processing time is usually 10-15 days, meaning the first cargoes of urea may not ship until the second half of the month.

Traders previously speculated that some Chinese urea might be offered in the Indian tender if the export paperwork could be finished by the end of April. Under the new rumored plan, exporters would not know if they are allowed to ship their urea until just days before the RCF tender’s May 20 shipping deadline. While some companies might risk booking a vessel to arrive at port while the paperwork is still being processed, that would constitute a big risk, one trader said.

The lack of spot sales out of China has left sources guessing the export price based on domestic market dynamics. The export restrictions have had the desired effect of building up large domestic reserves in China, and domestic prices have been falling as a result.

This past week, the ex-plant price for prilled urea was reported at $298-$300/mt FOB, translating to an export price in the low-$330s/mt FOB. The market’s limited amount of granular urea was discussed in the $350s/mt FOB.

These prices fit with the general softness of the global urea market. Without any actual business to test the prices, however, those levels remain purely speculative. When the Indian tender results are announced, the industry will have a firm number from which to calculate a more accurate export price, sources said, and larger numbers of spot sales will be available shortly after the tender to confirm or adjust the estimated pricing.

The government’s export restrictions were evident in the shipping numbers reported by Trade Data Monitor. January-February shipments stood at 21,000 mt, down 95% from the 406,000 mt exported during the same period of 2023. South Korea took 11,000 mt.

Sources said that tonnage most likely consisted of urea related to South Korea’s pollution control devices rather than for agricultural use. February exports were 7,500 mt, a major drop from the 165,000 mt reported going offshore in February 2023.

South Korea:

January-February urea imports firmed significantly year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 238,000 mt from 154,000 mt, with Qatar, Vietnam, and Indonesia topping the supplier list. While China is a typically a major supplier to South Korea, the export restrictions imposed by Beijing reduced the Chinese tonnage registered by South Korea to just 13,000 mt, down from 69,000 mt in January-February 2023.

February imports were also significantly higher, firming to 105,000 mt from the 52,000 mt received in February 2023.

Brazil:

Granular urea prices were reported at $355-$360/mt CFR in Brazil, off from the week-ago $365-$375/mt CFR and down 9.5% from early March. Prilled product was offered at $360/mt CFR, players noted, while feed urea of Russian origin traded in the $365-$370/mt CFR range. Granular tons from Venezuela were offered at $340/mt CFR, sources said.

The Rondonópolis market remained quiet due to ongoing low seasonal demand for nitrogen. Lacking buyer interest for the 2025 corn safrinha, many players neglected to include urea on their price lists during the week. The few available references indicated levels in the $500-$510/mt FOB ex-warehouse range, with the lower limit based on negotiations carrying special conditions.

UAN

Eastern Cornbelt, France, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA UAN remained at $270-$280/st ($8.44-$8.75/unit) FOB for the last confirmed barge business, with reports that 1Q deliveries are slowly catching up after earlier delays.

US Imports:

January UAN imports were 186,089 st, down 51.9% from the year-ago 386,583 st. July-January volumes totaled 1.27 million st, a 21.9% decrease from 1.63 million st in the prior year. Russia sent 728,439 st for July-January, Canada shipped 239,086 st, and Trinidad and Tobago added 263,411 st. 

US Exports:

UAN exports for January stood at 135,863 st, down 33.2% from the year-ago 203,324 st. July-January exports totaled 1.21 million st, a 27.8% fall from the 1.67 million st posted one year earlier. France purchased 364,866 st of US product in July-January, Australia took 257,298 st, and Argentina received 190,019 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market widened to $300-$325/st ($9.38-$10.16/unit) FOB regional terminals, depending on location and time of delivery, with the Cincinnati market pegged at $300-$310/st ($9.38-$9.69/unit) FOB for prompt tons. UAN-28 offers slipped to $263-$275/st ($9.39-$9.82/unit) FOB Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was unchanged at $300-$320/st ($9.38-$10.00/unit) terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the high reported in Iowa on a spot basis.

California:

UAN-32 pricing in California firmed to $350-$360/st ($10.94-$11.25/unit) FOB Stockton, up $10/st from last report, with rail-DEL tons quoted at $355-$365/st ($11.09-$11.41/unit) in the state, depending on location.

Pacific Northwest:

UAN-32 strengthened to $345/st ($10.78/unit) FOB Kennewick, Wash., at mid-month, up from the prior $335/st ($10.47/unit) FOB level. Delivered pricing was pegged at $350/st ($10.94/unit) in the Pacific Northwest.

Western Canada:

UAN-28 prices in Western Canada strengthened to a solid C$480/mt (C$17.14/unit) DEL, up from the prior C$455-$480/mt (C$16.25-$17.14/unit) DEL range.

France:

UAN prices in France were slightly softer this week. Producer offers were down €5/mt, to €240/mt FCA, with unconfirmed sales reported at €235/mt FCA.European suppliers to Rouen can find some comfort in the modest new import arrivals, with the US market attracting significant Baltic volumes due to its premium price.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Market Watch, U.S. Exports, U.S. Imports, United Kingdom, Western Cornbelt

US Imports:

January ammonium nitrate imports stood at 26,521 st, down 37.2% from the 42,201 st reported last January. July-January volumes were noted at 183,135 st, however, nearly even with the year-ago 183,171 st. Canada sent 150,026 st in July-January, Russia followed with 31,235 st, and China sent 660 st.

US Exports:

January ammonium nitrate exports lifted 31.7%, to 43,641 st from the year-ago 33,138 st. July-January exports moved up 40.8%, to 481,973 st from 342,340 st in the prior year. Canada received 269,016 in July-January, Mexico purchased 130,292 st, and Lithuania took 39,690 st.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium nitrate remained at $400-$420/st FOB terminals in Missouri.

United Kingdom:

At the end of last week, CF Industries announced a new list price for ammonium nitrate in the UK at £330/mt CPT for May deliveries after informing market participants that it was sold out for March and April. The previous list price was £320/mt CPT for April deliveries.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northwestern Europe, Pacific N.W., South Korea, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA ammonium sulfate market continued to climb, with new March barge business confirmed in the $375-$385/st FOB range, up from last week’s $335-$360/st FOB.

US Imports:

January ammonium sulfate imports totaled 61,489 st, down 36.6% compared to 97,018 st in January 2023. July-January imports were counted at 534,446 st, however, increasing 30.0% from the year-ago 411,049 st.

Imports from Canada were noted at 298,282 st for July-January, ahead of 83,943 st from Russia and 76,460 st from Belgium.

US Exports:

Ammonium sulfate exports softened 22.0% in July-January, to 426,415 st from the year-ago 547,021 st. January cargoes were counted at 38,966 st, a 64.0% decline from the 108,284 st reported one year earlier.

Exports to Peru totaled 111,845 st in July-January, followed by Canada with 52,502 st. Brazil took 40,743 st, Mexico received 40,524 st, and Uruguay bought 31,831 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate prices rose significantly, fueled by tight supply and rapidly firming NOLA barge values. Terminal prices jumped to $390-$420/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up sharply from last week’s $350-$385/st FOB range, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. The Cincinnati market strengthened to $400-$415/st FOB for new offers.

In the Great Lakes region, ammonium sulfate offers in Michigan were reported at $430-$440/st FOB and $435/st DEL during the week.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market firmed to $375-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up another $30/st from last week, with the high reported in Iowa and the low at St. Louis.

California:

Ammonium sulfate prices in California moved up again, climbing to $385-$395/st FOB from the prior $370/st low. The high was confirmed at French Camp for granular tons, with offers firming to $385/st FOB Lathrop, Woodland, Richvale, and Helm. Sources said they expect another increase soon.

Pacific Northwest:

The ammonium sulfate market remained at $330-$350/st FOB or DEL for the latest offers in the Pacific Northwest.

Western Canada:

Ammonium sulfate prices moved up in Western Canada, to C$500-$515/mt DEL from the prior C$490-$500/mt range.

Northwest Europe:

No new offers for standard ammonium sulfate were heard in the region this week, with product scarce due to lower caprolactam production rates, which are reportedly at 50%. With bid levels not forthcoming and no new offers, the price range was steady for now, but upward pressure is expected in the coming weeks should supply tightness continue.

China:

The urea market’s softness is being felt in the amsul market, sources said. Caprolactam grade amsul was noted at $120-$125/mt FOB, while buyers were reportedly making a hard play to push the price even lower by the end of the week.

In addition to following the urea prices lower, some amsul producers have reportedly shown growing reserves. Major buyers such as those in Brazil are holding off from making purchases until China releases DAP and MAP for export. Sources said it is more economical to include 8,000-10,000 mt lots of amsul in a vessel carrying a larger quantity of MAP across the ocean.

Regional buyers engaging in smaller deals do not face these same logistics problems, however, and continue to seek out tons. The market’s fall into the low-$120s/mt FOB resulted from deals closed with buyers from the Philippines and other Southeast Asian destinations.

January-February amsul exports were steady year-over-year, according to Trade Data Monitor, at 1.8 million mt. Vietnam, Myanmar, and Brazil each accounted for about 10% of purchases for the period, while the remaining 70% of sales was spread among more than 60 additional buyers. February exports were counted at 817,000 mt, falling 7% from the 878,000 mt shipped in February 2023.

South Korea:

January-February exports were reported at 185 mt, off from the 46,000 mt shipped during the first two months of 2023, according to Trade Data Monitor.February tons were pegged at 101 mt, against the 28,000 mt exported one year earlier.

South Korean amsul exporters have faced the same issue as their Chinese counterparts in January-February, with buyers reportedly seeking additional material to co-ship with their ammonium sulfate purchases to defray shipping costs.

Brazil:

Brazil ammonium sulfate prices softened 1.5% during the week, to $160-$165/mt CFR from $160-$170/mt CFR at last report. Players reported limited interest, with some buyers attempting to purchase in the $150-$155/mt CFR range.

Rondonópolis prices remained stable during the week, with minimal demand reported. Limited negotiations underway for the 2025 corn safrinha were noted at $270-$295/mt FOB ex-warehouse, unchanged from one week earlier.

DAP/MAP

Baltic Sea, Benelux, Brazil, California, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Morocco, Pacific N.W., U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Canada

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP trucks were reported at $630/st FOB, unchanged from last week. Truck-loaded MAP was steady at $655/st FOB. Sources continued to note North Florida MAP postings at $650/st FOB.

US Gulf:

NOLA DAP barges softened 5.6% during the week, to $570-$630/st FOB from $610-$660/st FOB at last report. MAP barges held their value, however, with prices unchanged at the week-ago $620-$640/st FOB level. Prompt and loaded product was priced at the top of the range for both DAP and MAP, sources said.

US Imports:

DAP imports for January moved 548.5% higher year-over-year, to 83,893 st from 12,937 st. July-January imports firmed 115.1%, to 797,842 st from 370,857 st in the prior July-January. July-January imports from Saudi Arabia were noted at 465,704 st, followed by 173,699 st from Jordan. Australia added 80,372 st.

July-January MAP/Other imports saw an 8.4% year-over-year increase, rising to 655,240 st from 604,657 st. January imports slipped 7.8%, however, to 133,886 st from the year-ago 145,182 st. Saudi Arabia led suppliers with 192,204 st in the fertilizer year-to-date, Tunisia added 175,672 st, and Mexico sent 153,367 st.

US Exports:

With no new spot transactions reported, the US Gulf export market continued at $570/mt FOB.

January DAP exports were noted at 16,731 st, a 62.0% decrease on the year-ago 43,982 st. July-January volumes were down 47.4%, at 253,503 st compared to the 482,260 st posted one year earlier. US DAP sellers sent 81,605 st to Peru in July-January, ahead of 38,736 st to Canada and 31,964 st to Uruguay. Brazil took 28,989 st.

MAP/Other exports softened 5.6% in July-January, to 1.14 million st from the year-ago 1.20 million st. January shipments were 131,862 st, down 38.5% from 214,491 st in the previous January. Canada received 894,021 st of US MAP in July-January, ahead of 76,770 st to Australia and 36,520 st to Mexico.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP prices dropped to $665-$685/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, well below the previous week’s broad $685-$760/st FOB range, with both the high and low confirmed at Cincinnati during the week. In the Great Lakes region, delivered DAP was pegged at the $735/st level.

MAP was quoted at $685-$695/st FOB for limited tons in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low again reported on the Illinois River. The Cincinnati MAP market was pegged at $690-$695/st FOB during the week. Michigan prices were quoted at $715/st FOB and $735/st DEL for the latest MAP offers.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP slipped to $660-$690/st FOB for limited tons in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis. MAP was quoted at $675-$715/st FOB in the region, with the low confirmed at St. Louis for April availability and the high for prompt tons at that location. MAP tons at Iowa warehouses were also quoted at the $715/st FOB level during the week.

California:

MAP prices jumped to $790-$795/st FOB or DEL for the latest offers in California, up from last week’s $765-$775/st level and the $760-$765/st FOB range reported in late February.

Pacific Northwest:

MAP postings in the Pacific Northwest were reportedly up $20/st, to $770-$780/mt DEL, depending on location.

Western Canada:

MAP in Western Canada was quoted at C$1,140-$1,145/mt FOB or DEL in late March, up from the prior C$1,110-$1,125/mt FOB and C$1,120-$1,130/mt DEL ranges.

Morocco:

Moroccan DAP prices were flat this week. The low end of the market reflected a sale into Latin America netting back to around $550/mt FOB, while the high continued to reflect last-done business in Northwest Europe. Moroccan product is currently out of that premium market, however.

Benelux:

Benelux DAP firmed again this week. A high of $675/mt FCA was reportedly achieved amid limited supply, with the Moroccan producer citing no availability in the region before April. Despite the momentum of recent weeks, some expressed a lack of confidence in continued firmness beyond March as the end of the peak phosphates season approaches.

Baltic:

Russian DAP prices hovered around $545/mt FOB, higher than the previous week and reflecting prices achievable in Benelux. Lithuanian DAP also edged higher, with $620/mt FOB achievable for parcels headed to Western Europe. MAP in the Baltic remained flat at $500-$510/mt FOB, reflecting a stable Brazilian CFR market.

China:

The paperwork for DAP and MAP exports is quietly working its way through the Chinese bureaucracy, sources said. DAP pricing for April shipments was noted under discussion at $590-$600/mt FOB, matching prices from small-lot sales reported in the region.

With the paperwork moving and pricing under discussion, phosphates should start shipping from China during the first half of April, sources said, though no vessels have been confirmed to arrive during that period to pick up tonnage. One trader said buyers would be wise to wait until the tons are at the port and all the paperwork is completed before booking a vessel.

In addition to the overall quota of phosphates allowed for export, producers will reportedly be given individual quotas of what they are permitted to ship offshore, leaving players with some concerns. No buyer wants to agree to purchase a large quantity from one producer only to find that the deal exceeds the allotment given to that manufacturer.

Sources reported some small sales to regional purchasers. A buyer in the Philippines reportedly secured two cargoes of about 10,000 mt each at $626-$635/mt CFR. Players described the sales as likely container deals with netbacks in the $590-$600/mt FOB range.

China’s export restrictions reduced DAP and MAP shipments in January-February, data from Trade Data Monitor showed, but to a lesser degree than urea.

Two-month exports fell 70% year-over-year, to 115,000 mt from 370,000 mt, with India taking 38,000 mt. Japan and Thailand followed with 23,000 mt and 21,000 mt, respectively. February DAP exports were 7,000 mt, down significantly from the 94,000 mt shipped in February 2023.

MAP exports totaled 99,000 mt in January-February, a 70% decline from the 346,000 mt shipped during the same period of 2023. Australia took 56,000 mt, followed by Chile with 12,000 mt. February MAP exports were noted at 14,000 mt, down from 147,000 mt in the prior February.

India: 

Sources reported a sale of Jordanian DAP into India at $580-$585/mt CFR. The price was seen as a small victory for Indian buyers at a time when DAP suppliers appeared to be digging in their heels for higher prices.

RCF closed a DAP tender earlier this week, though sources said no data from the tender has been released. Once the numbers are reported, said one trader, the market will have a better benchmark to look to for pricing.

Brazil:

MAP imports were unmoved from the week-ago $565-$570/mt CFR level. Multiple offers were heard at $580/mt CFR, while players reported some inland deals at a $555/mt CFR equivalent.

Following aggressive offers in the $665-$685/mt FOB ex-warehouse range reported during the Farm Show in Primavera do Leste, Rondonópolis suppliers withdrew their MAP discounts during the week, returning offers to the $680-$700/mt FOB ex-warehouse range reported two weeks earlier.

The increase surprised some market players, who expected suppliers to maintain the lower prices to spur demand for the next soybean crop. Others anticipated the higher levels, however, pointing to strong pricing in the international MAP markets. Given the increase, buyers were not motivated to negotiate, leaving the Rondonópolis market at a standstill.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barge prices fell 3.3%, to $430-$445/st FOB from last week’s $440-$465/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP was quoted at $520-$545/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati. Delivered pricing in Michigan was pegged at the $565/st level.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP was unchanged at $515-$535/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis.

Brazil:

Imported TSP prices continued at $425-$435/mt CFR. Increased tonnage from Morocco is expected to drive higher import numbers in 2024, sources said.

Sellers rescinded their discounts for TSP during the week, lifting Rondonópolis prices to $540-$555/mt FOB ex-warehouse from the prior $520-$530/mt FOB. There were reports of interested buyers at the higher levels, who are seeking alternative sources of phosphorus due to the strong MAP market.