All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, Market Watch, Phosphate, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barges were reported at $440-$485/st FOB, widening from last week’s $445-$460/st FOB. The bottom of the range reportedly came on a first-half April trade, while prompt barges set the high.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP remained at $520-$535/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati market reported at the $525/st FOB level in early March.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP edged up to $515-$535/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and reflecting a $10/st increase from last report.

Great Lakes:

Delivered TSP in Michigan was quoted at the $560/st mark in early March.

Brazil:

TSP imports were steady at $420-$435/mt CFR. Rondonópolis negotiations were centered on $530-535/mt FOB ex-warehouse, sources said, while higher offers reportedly failed to transact. Given MAP’s limited attractiveness to growers due to high barter ratios, TSP garnered a larger portion of the week’s phosphate business.

DAP/MAP

Benelux, Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, India, Market Watch, Morocco, Northeast, Northern Plains, Phosphate, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida phosphates price held steady, with DAP transacting at $630/st FOB and MAP trucks priced at $655/st FOB, both unchanged from last week. North Florida MAP postings continued at $650/st FOB.

US Gulf:

Trading activity picked up on the NOLA DAP barge market. DAP barges changed hands in a wide $600-$690/st FOB range, up 10.5% from last week’s $605-$620/st FOB, with loaded and prompt barges fetching a sizeable premium.

MAP trading was muted due to limited availability, however. Sources quoted prices in the $640-$650/st FOB range, rising from last week’s $625/st FOB.

US Exports:

DAP and MAP exports from the US Gulf remained at $570/mt FOB for the last reported deals.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP and MAP were edging higher on tight supply and firming NOLA barge values. DAP prices moved to $675-$685/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the prior $660-$670/st FOB range, with both the high and low reported at Cincinnati and out of Illinois River terminals for March-June shipment.

MAP remained at $685-$690/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported on the Illinois River. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $685-$690/st FOB for the latest offers.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP and MAP prices in the Western Cornbelt moved higher on limited availability. DAP pricing firmed to $680-$690/st FOB in the region, up sharply from the prior week’s $650-$660/st FOB, with both the high and low reported at St. Louis for very limited volumes.

MAP was quoted at $675-$690/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis for April availability.

Great Lakes:

The latest MAP offers were pegged at $725-$735/st FOB and $735/st DEL in Michigan in early March.

Northern Plains:

DAP and MAP offers at St. Paul in early March firmed to $680-$690/st FOB and $715-$720/st FOB, respectively.

Northeast:

The DAP and MAP markets at East Liverpool strengthened to $695/st FOB and $705/st FOB, respectively, with DAP moving up a full $30/st from last report. Delivered MAP was quoted at the $730/st level in Pennsylvania, reflecting a $15/st increase.

Eastern Canada:

The latest MAP offers in Eastern Canada were reported at C$993-$995/mt FOB, while DAP pricing firmed to C$955/mt FOB Montreal, up C$20/mt from last report.

Morocco:

OCP’s European DAP sales continue to yield netbacks in the $595-$615/mt FOB range. With no updates on non-European sales, however, the low end of the range remains unchanged. Previous reports of stormy weather causing Jorf closures appear to have been resolved.

Benelux:

DAP prices in Benelux once again firmed slightly on seasonal demand and tight supply. Moroccan material offered at €595/mt FCA reflected the low end of the range, with the high end of €620/mt FCA achieved on some truckload business, resulting in a range of $645-$670/mt FCA at midweek exchange rates.

Firmer sentiment is still seen at Rouen, where offers were heard up to €20/mt higher than in Benelux. Conversely, Baltic DAP prices have been revised $5/mt FOB higher at the upper end of the range, reflecting the uptick in Northwest Europe.

China:

The Chinese government has modified and clarified its earlier announcement that it would once again allow the exportation of phosphates and urea, sources reported. The quotas for export through April 2025 were lifted to 5 million mt for DAP and 2 million mt for MAP, up from 4.4 million mt and 2.2 million mt, respectively.

Still up in the air are the export allotments for individual production facilities. Sources said the large plants with easier access to export facilities will most likely take the bulk of the allotments, leaving the others to only service the domestic market.

Sources currently expect the export certification process DAP and MAP to begin in mid-March, with the first lots set for loading in early April. The tonnage already located at the ports will be inspected and certified for export in situ, as was done in the past, said one trader. New orders, however, will have to be cleared for export either at the factory gate or at a factory warehouse. No tonnage sent to regional distribution centers will be considered for export.

Some traders are beginning to talk about a $560-$570/mt FOB price for the first cargoes, sources said, though others pegged the more likely price in the $580s/mt FOB. Sources pointed to reported DAP talks between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan centering on the low-$620s/mt FOB. In calculating a China-equivalent price, sources estimated the netback to China as closer to $580-$590/mt FOB, and possibly higher.

India: 

No new DAP deals were reported in India, leaving the price at $595/mt CFR. New business may show a higher price in the near future, however. Reports that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are discussing DAP business in the low-$620s/mt CFR could see buyers in India facing prices in the $600-$610/mt CFR range, sources said.

DAP imports to India totaled 6.4 million mt in 2023, Trade Data Monitor reported, off 5% from the year-ago 6.8 million mt. Sources said the drop came as buyers pulled back from the market due to rising prices, and as domestic DAP producers stepped up output. Nearly 70% of the year’s imports came from China and Saudi Arabia, sending 2.5 million mt and 1.8 million mt, respectively.

December imports were reported at 1.7 million mt, down 33% from the 2.5 million mt received in December 2022.

Brazil:

Landed MAP prices gained $5/mt, to settle at $565-$570/mt CFR. Inland deals were reported both above and below that level, however.

International players are awaiting news on DAP and MAP production rates at China. While a lack of MAP or MAP 10-50 production could put downward pressure on prices, DAP production targeting sales into Asian markets would be more attractive to Chinese producers in the current market.

MAP pricing at Rondonópolis continued in a wide range. The most competitive offers were reported at $670-$675/mt FOB ex-warehouse, while offers from producers continued at $700/mt FOB or above. Sources reported minimal liquidity for new trades throughout the week due to low affordability, leading buyers to consider TSP or SSP for their needs.

UAN

Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, France, Great Lakes, Market Watch, Nitrogen, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

A lack of product continued to limit new NOLA barge business for UAN, but tight supply and rapidly firming upriver terminal pricing pushed NOLA indications significantly higher during the week.

Sources quoted the UAN barge market at $270-$280/st ($8.44-$8.75/unit) FOB for new business, up from the prior $240-$245/st ($7.50-$7.66/unit) FOB range, with the high confirmed late in the week for a prompt trade.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN prices in the Eastern Cornbelt were strengthening on tight supply. Sources quoted the Cincinnati market up to $325/st ($10.16/unit) FOB for prompt shipment, with the Mount Vernon, Ind., market firmly at the $310/st ($9.69/unit) FOB level for March-April. UAN-28 prompt offers ranged from $283-$287/st ($10.11-$10.25/unit) FOB in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was pegged in a broad range at $285-$315/st ($8.91-$9.84/unit) FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported for March tons at Port Neal and the high at Beatrice, Neb. The St. Louis market was quoted firmly at the $310/st ($9.69/unit) FOB level for April-May, with no prompt tons available from that location.

Recent UAN-32 offers in the Southern Plains also included $315/st ($9.84/unit) FOB Dodge City, Kan., before offers were reportedly pulled at that location. Sources said no current prices were being offered at Verdigris or Woodward, Okla., in early March.

Great Lakes:

UAN-28 pricing firmed to $305-$310/st ($10.89-$11.07/unit) FOB Michigan terminals in early March.

Northern Plains:

The UAN-32 market strengthened to $315-$330/st ($9.84-$10.31/unit) FOB terminals in Minnesota, up from $295-$310/st ($9.22-$9.69/unit) FOB in February. UAN-28 was quoted at the $325/st ($11.61/unit) DEL level in North Dakota for tons from Canada.

Northeast:

UAN-32 offers in the Northeast reportedly jumped to $285-$295/st ($8.91-$9.22/unit) FOB Fairless Hills and Baltimore, up from the previous $265-$275/st ($8.28-$8.59/unit) FOB range, with reports that Baltimore levels were approaching the $300/st ($9.38/unit) FOB level by the end of the week.

UAN-32 out of terminals in upstate New York was up $20/st, to $350/st (10.94/unit) FOB.

The 28-0-0-5S market was pegged at $282-$290/st FOB Baltimore, up from the prior $278/st FOB level, with 27-0-0-3S reported at $256-$264/st FOB Baltimore.

Eastern Canada:

UAN-28 pricing in Eastern Canada was quoted at C$455-$460/mt (C$16.25-$16.43/unit) FOB, up from the prior low of C$446/mt (C$15.93/unit) FOB. The UAN-32 market in Ontario edged up to C$520/mt (C$16.25/unit) FOB, above the previous C$509/mt (C$15.91/unit) level.

France:

The UAN market in France remains subdued, causing the latest offers to slip to €240/mt FCA. A combination of poor weather, ample stocks, and overall diminished buyer appetite continues to depress the market. New-season offers were rumored as low as €220/mt FCA but could not be confirmed.

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, ethiopia, Great Lakes, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Mediterranean, Middle East, Nitrogen, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea edged up to a high of $398-$400/st FOB for prompt loaded barges and first-half March trades, with full-March business reported in the $375-$395/st FOB range, above the prior week’s broad $363-$398/st FOB for prompt and March barges.

Sources reported a drop for April, however, with first-half April business confirmed at $367-$379/st FOB and full April down to a reported low of $350-$355/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Strengthening NOLA barge prices pushed the urea market up in the Eastern Cornbelt. The latest offers were quoted at $455-$465/st FOB in the region, up from $420-$450/st FOB last week, with the low confirmed at Illinois River terminals and the high in Indiana and Ohio. The Cincinnati, Ohio, urea market was pegged at $455-$460/st FOB, up $10-$15/st.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices continued to climb in the wake of firming NOLA barge values. Sources quoted the Western Cornbelt market at $440-$470/st FOB, up from last week’s $420-$450/st, with the high confirmed in Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., urea market jumped to $440-$460/st FOB during the week, while Port Neal, Iowa, was reportedly on allocation.

In the southern US, urea pricing at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., reportedly jumped to $480-$510/st FOB, up sharply from last week’s $440-$470/st, while the latest Convent, La., offers were quoted at $425-$430/st FOB, up from $420/st FOB last week.

Great Lakes:

Michigan sources quoted the latest urea offers at $465-$490/st FOB and up to $490-$505/st DEL, well above the prior week’s $445-$480/st FOB and $445-$465/st DEL ranges.

Northern Plains:

Urea jumped to $470-$480/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., and $540-$560/st DEL in the Northern Plains, up from the previous $450-$470/st FOB and $500-$540/st DEL ranges.

Northeast:

The latest urea offers climbed to $430-$465/st FOB in the Northeast, with the low reported at Fairless Hills, Pa., and the high at East Liverpool, Ohio. The Baltimore, Md., urea market was pegged at $435-$445/st FOB during the week, up from $420/st FOB in mid-February.

Eastern Canada:

The latest urea offers in Eastern Canada moved to C$700-$725/mt FOB in early March, up from the prior low of C$680/mt FOB.

Black Sea:     

Turkish buyers IGSAS and BAGFAS purchased a combined order of Iranian material, sources reported. Details on the price are sketchy, but traders noted $400-$420/mt CFR as the most likely range for the deal.

Mediterranean:

This week’s granular urea market was described as even slower than last week, with importers sitting on comfortable stocks and poor weather slowing demand. Both Spain and Italy reported no import activity for fresh cargos, with offers now slipping to $405-$410/mt CFR and seeing no traction.

In neighboring Turkey, Egyptian material was offered at $420/mt CFR, but no business was concluded. Based on the new indications, the regional market slipped to $405-$420/mt CFR.

India: 

Sources continue to expect a new tender call on March 15-20. The shipping period for the tender is likely to run into the second week of May, which could allow for a Chinese cargo or two to be included in the offers.

As previously reported, India’s budget allotment for fertilizer subsidies is expected to shift lower in the coming fiscal year. The budget slated to take effect on April 1 will be provisional, one trader noted, and will be valid only through the end of September. A permanent budget will be enacted after the upcoming election.

The Indian government has been looking for ways to reduce its dependence on imported urea and cut its expenditures on urea subsidies. The government has provided favorable gas rates for urea producers to step up production and open new plants or refurbish older ones. At the same time, the government continues to push for the use of liquid Nano Urea instead of imported product.

2023 urea imports softened 15% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 8.6 million mt from 10.1 million mt. China sent 2.4 million mt, Oman added 2.2 million mt, and Russia shipped 1.4 million mt. India purchased a combined 3.6 million mt of urea from Arab Gulf countries in 2023, the data indicated.

December imports stood at 1.8 million mt, up 8% from the 1.7 million mt received in December 2022. Fourth-quarter imports totaled 4.3 million mt, roughly half of India’s 2023 urea import total and a sizable increase from October-December 2022.

Indonesia:     

No new granular business was reported from Indonesia, leaving the price at the $386/mt FOB level achieved in late February on a Pupuk Kaltim tender. New prilled business suggested prices might be softening, however.

A tender for prilled urea closed late last week at $372/mt FOB, sources reported. Given the usual $5-$10/mt difference between prilled and granular urea, the recent Kaltim granular price would fit with the new tender results. However, Gresik closed a deal earlier this week for prilled product at $355/mt FOB, suggesting a granular price in the $360s/mt FOB.

In the broader Southeast Asia market, no updates on Petronas’ Bintulu and Gurun units were heard from Malaysia, with both plants still down and no fresh business confirmed ex-Brunei.

As expected, Indonesia exported zero mt of urea in January, Trade Data Monitor reported, just as it did in January 2023. In an effort to focus producers’ attentions toward satisfying domestic demand, the Indonesian government withheld export permits during the early part of the year, resulting in the lack of January exports.

Middle East: 

Arab Gulf producers remained quiet during the week as they filled contract orders for long-term customers. No new spot deals were reported, leaving the price in the upper-$370s/mt FOB. No new deals were reported out of Egypt as well, leaving the granular price at $406/mt FOB.

Reports that Ethiopia has awarded just two cargoes in its most recent tender could free up more product to ship from the Arab Gulf. In addition to failing to secure what could have been a multi-cargo set of awards from Ethiopia, Arab Gulf producers may now be shut out of Ethiopia completely. The East African country has become more reliant on Egyptian material than product from the Arab Gulf, leaving AG producers to look for other buyers.

Ethiopia:       

Ethiopia imported 196,000 mt of urea in the first two months of 2024, according to Trade Data Monitor,almost double the amount received during the same period of 2023. Egyptian product dominated the lineup with 152,000 mt, for 78% of the imports, while Nigeria sent 44,000 mt. February imports were 95,000 mt, up 89% from 50,000 mt in February 2023.

China:

The Chinese government has reportedly clarified the timetable and procedure for exporting urea through April 2025. All urea and phosphate exports will now be required to complete the CIQ process at either the factory or a factory warehouse.

The new policy will ban the issuance of export permits at ports and regional independent warehouses or distribution centers. The tonnage already delivered to the ports and awaiting final export approval will be exempt from the new policy, sources said.

Sources anticipate the inspections necessary to obtain an export license to begin on April 15, with the first lot of urea permitted to ship during the first week of May. However, few seem willing to take the risk of booking a vessel until the export permits have been issued, market watchers said. Though the new plan appears to guarantee the clearing process will take no more than 10 working days to complete, sources were concerned that some inspectors could drag out the process.

Another concern for international buyers is the size of cargoes allowed to export after shipping resumes. The first sales will likely be small, container-sized lots to regional Asian buyers, sources noted. There has even been talk that permits for larger cargos, suitable for buyers such as India or Brazil, might be slower in processing. If some larger cargoes are allowed in the first batch of exports, however, sources said they might include potential material for the pending Indian tender.

The estimated price of exported urea has softened due to falling ex-plant prices. Even though no new export deals can currently be made, sources estimated prices around $345-$350/mt FOB for prilled urea.

Brazil:

Brazil urea prices edged up to $395/mt CFR from last week’s $394-$395/mt CFR range. Limited volumes were offered at $395-$400/mt CFR against $375/mt CFR bids, players noted.

Rondonópolis prices were unchanged in the $500-$520/mt FOB ex-warehouse range, as limited prompt urea interest was reported only for last-minute corn safrinha demand. As corn sowing has already advanced significantly in the region, few suppliers are willing to participate in new urea business due to tight delivery windows and unfavorable payment terms. Given the bearish outlook for corn prices, barter trading is even riskier.

Ammonia

Ammonia, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Nitrogen, Northern Plains, Northwestern Europe, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

Tampa ammonia remained at March’s $445/mt CFR settlement, unchanged from February. Sources reported no direction for April pricing, which is expected to conclude later this month, though inland US terminal prices have rebounded on short supply and strong early demand, while natural gas prices have ticked up slightly in Europe.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Prompt ammonia prices continued to move up as early spring demand tests supplies. Truck tons in the Eastern Cornbelt were quoted at $625-$650/st FOB during the week, depending on location, up from the prior week’s $575-$625/st FOB range.

CF reportedly raised prices first to $635/st FOB and then to $645/st FOB in the region, while Koch was quoted at the $635/st FOB level at most terminals. The Lima, Ohio, reference price was quoted at $625/st FOB, up from the prior $590/st FOB level.

“Ammonia is seriously short supplied,” said one Illinois contact. “A buyer needs to make sure tons are in the tank if he is looking for any sort of prompt pull.”

Western Cornbelt:

Sources reported a flurry of ammonia applications in parts of Iowa and Missouri from March 1-5 before wet weather slowed the pace. Prices were up as the strong, early demand strained prompt supply in the region. Sources pegged the market at $615-$635/st FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, where available, up sharply from the previous $575-$615/st FOB range.

The latest ammonia offers in the southern US included limited truck tons at $615/st FOB Coffeyville, Kan., and $625/st FOB Cherokee, Ala.

Great Lakes:

Michigan sources pegged the latest ammonia offers at $585-$635/st FOB, up from $535-$615/st FOB, with the low reported at Courtright, Ont., and the high at Huntington, Ind.

Northern Plains:

Delivered ammonia remained in a broad range at $600-$670/st in the Northern Plains, with the low for prompt tons and the high for spring prepay. Terminal prices were quoted at $635-$640/st FOB in the region for limited offers.

Northwest Europe:

TTF natural gas rebounded another 2% this week, sitting currently at €28/MWh, or close to $9/mmBtu, following an unplanned outage in Norway and a low wind forecast in Western Europe. Despite the rise in gas prices, Northwest European ammonia prices on a CFR basis remained unchanged, with no fresh business reported.

Reports of a new CF UK inquiry for April delivery and a rumored 10,000 mt EuroChem spot sale into France could not be confirmed by press time.

Middle East: 

Previous contract discussions between Saudi Arabian producers and buyers in Southeast Asia showed possible prices in the $330s/mt CFR, for a potential netback of $295/mt FOB to the Middle East.

While sources in Asia were careful to point out that the talks were for contracts and not spot deals, a late-week sale of 15,000 mt reported from Kaltim at $335/mt FOB fits with the talks to import product from the Arab Gulf.

SAFCO 3 in Saudi Arabia and the OQ plant in Salalah, Oman, are down for routine maintenance.

January-February ammonia exports from Iran totaled 53,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 45% decline from the year-ago 98,000 mt, with India receiving 52,000 mt. February exports were 23,000 mt, a significant decline from 77,000 mt in February 2023.

The lower ammonia exports may be the result of reduced natural gas available for industrial use, sources speculated. Iranian nitrogen producers were required to cut back outputs early in the year after natural gas was diverted for residential use.

India:

Deepak was rumored to pick up a cargo at $370/mt CFR. At the same time, FACT was reported to pay $409/mt CFR for a 7,500 mt lot. The unusually high price was the result of difficult logistics, one trader noted. FACT normally pays a slight premium for its ammonia because its port facilities do not allow for large vessels to discharge product.

India imported 2.3 million mt of ammonia in 2023, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 5% from the 2.2 million mt received in 2022. Saudi Arabia sent 947,000 mt, Oman shipped 384,000 mt, and Bahrain added 146,000 mt. December imports fell 12%, to 574,000 mt from the 650,000 mt received in December 2022.

Indonesia:     

Kaltim reportedly closed a deal to sell 15,000 mt of ammonia at $335/mt FOB. The price fits with discussions taking place between area buyers and Arab Gulf suppliers.

Trade Data Monitor pegged January ammonia exports from Indonesia at 148,000 mt, a marginal increase from 140,000 mt in January 2023. South Korea led buyers with 50,000 mt, followed by India with 38,000 mt. China took 22,000 mt.

Wildfires in Northern Texas Threaten Refineries, Pipelines; Nutrien’s Borger Plant Still Operational

Ammonia, Featured, Natural Gas, Texas, Urea

Texas emergency crews are battling the worst wildfire in state history that expanded to more than 1 million acres in just four days, threatened refineries and a nuclear weapons plant amid forecasts for several more days of dry, windy weather.

The largest of multiple blazes scorching the Texas Panhandle – the Smokehouse Creek Fire – expanded more than 20-fold in just two days and now covers 1.075 million acres (1,700 square miles), according to the Texas A&M Forest Service. That surpasses the 907,245-acre East Amarillo Complex fire of 2006 that formerly held the record.

“The potential for wildfire activity will increase again for the Plains region Saturday and Sunday due to strong winds and dry fuels,” the A&M service warned in a statement.

The Smokehouse Creek Fire and the Windy Deuce Fire have scorched houses, shut highways and schools, and menaced critical infrastructure including an oil refinery and the Pantex nuclear-weapons facility. The Pantex plant, northeast of Amarillo, evacuated nonessential staff Tuesday night as the blaze rapidly grew.

Natural gas driller Pantera Energy Co. was forced to shut roughly 1% of its production and pipes at one field that suffered fire damage. “We’ll have to replace some surface equipment over the next couple weeks,” Pantera President Jason Herrick told Bloomberg in an interview. “Ours was not too bad.”

According to a map from the National Interagency Fire Center, the Smokehouse Creek fire and the Windy Deuce fire as of Feb. 28 were to the immediate east and west of Borger, Texas, where Nutrien Ltd. operates an ammonia and urea production facility.

“All of our colleagues at Nutrien Borger in Texas are currently safe from the wildfires that constitute the second largest fire in state history,” Nutrien said in a Feb. 29 statement to Green Markets. “We are in regular contact with our colleagues and are doing everything we can to support their safety, our number one priority. The plant remains in operation and undamaged at this time.”

Nutrien confirmed that “several of our colleagues have lost their homes and several others remain engaged in efforts to contain the fire. Our hearts go out to the impacted communities. Nutrien Borger is working to provide aid to the community and we encourage donations to the Red Cross to aid the many thousands of people that have been affected by these fires.”

Phillips 66’s Borger refinery was on alert but still operational late on Feb. 28. The refinery has a crude throughput capacity of 75,000 barrels per day, and a gasoline throughput capacity of 50,000 barrels per day. Earlier on Wednesday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared a disaster for 60 counties affected by four separate wildfires.

Tens of thousands of cattle already may have perished and entire ranches have been wiped out, said Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller. At least one person died due to the blaze, an octogenarian who was trapped in her home, according to multiple media reports.

Utility owner Xcel Energy Inc.’s stock plummeted, erasing almost $1.9 billion of its market cap, after the company disclosed in a Feb. 29 regulatory filing that an unnamed law firm representing property owners affected by the wildfire has asked the company to preserve as evidence a fallen utility pole located near the potential area of origin. Xcel owns Southwestern Public Service Company, which operates in the region.

“We will cooperate with officials while conducting our own investigations to determine the causes of the fires,” an Xcel spokesperson told Bloomberg in an emailed statement.

Ma’aden Net Profit Slumps 83% in 2023; Approves Phosphate 3 Phase 1 Final Investment Decision

Ammonia, Brazil, Earnings, Featured, Phosphate, Saudi Arabia

Riyadh-based Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) reported an 83% plunge in net profit after zakat and tax, to SAR1.58 billion (approximately $421 million at current exchange rates) in the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2023, down from SAR9.32 billion for the previous year.

In a filing to the Saudi Stock Exchange, Ma’aden cited a decline in sales as a result of weaker prices for all its products except gold. The net profit result beat an average analysts’ forecast for SAR1.37 billion, however, according to Bloomberg. Sales in 2023 fell by 27%, to SAR29.27 billion from the prior year’s SAR40.28 billion, but also beat market estimates.

The company said FY2023 net profit was also impacted by higher finance costs due to increased borrowing rates and a lower share of profit from joint ventures on the back of lower commodity market prices. It said this was partially offset by improved raw materials costs, higher income from time deposit, and lower income taxes and zakat.

Ma’aden said the decrease in sales was due to prices “normalizing” after spiking on global supply disruption in 2022. But it said the weaker prices were partially offset by higher sales volumes of ammonium phosphate fertilizer, alumina, and gold.

The company reported that phosphate production last year reached a record 9.099 million mt. Production of DAP was up 15%, to 5.899 million mt from 5.151 million mt the previous year. DAP sales volumes grew 14% year-over-year, to 5.945 million mt from 5.201 million mt.

Ammonia production last year was essentially flat versus 2022, at 3.2 million mt, while ammonia sales volumes dipped by 7%, to 1.996 million mt from 2.147 million mt.

Ma’aden said it expects better conditions in FY2024, with more stable markets for phosphates and aluminum in particular.

“The global phosphate market is expected to remain stable in FY2024. Phosphate demand is set to rise due to improved affordability and low inventory in key markets, offset against supply returning to the market throughout the year,” said Ma’aden CEO Robert Wilt in a company earnings statement.

“Ammonia demand is expected to improve, driven by increased phosphate and nitrogen fertilizer production, and met through increased supply from the US and other markets,” he said.

Wilt said Ma’aden has approved the final investment decision for Phase 1 of its ambitious Phosphate 3 project. The CEO indicated last summer (GM June 2, 2023) that the project was “accelerating towards a final investment decision later in 2023.”

Phase 1 is set to add a further 1.5 million mt/y of phosphate fertilizer production capacity by 2026, he said. The company last year had been targeting a 2025 completion.

The first plant in the Phosphate 3 project, a 1.1 million mt/y ammonia plant located at the Ras Al-Khair Industrial City facility on Saudi Arabia’s East Coast, started “official” commercial production in August 2022 (GM Nov. 4, 2022), although the first shipments from the new plant were made in June 2022 (GM June 10, 2022). The ammonia output is currently being used to cover existing sales contracts and merchant sales.

The second phase of the Phosphate 3 project is ultimately targeting an additional 1.5 million mt/y of production capacity, which, if fully realized, will take Ma’aden’s phosphate fertilizer production capability to 9 million mt/y.

Wilt also reported that the completion of the Vale transaction with Manara Minerals Investment Co. remains on track for the first quarter of 2024, subject to international regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.

Manara Minerals Investment Co., a joint venture between Ma’aden and Saudi’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), in July last year signed a binding agreement to acquire a 10% stake in Brazilian group Vale SA’s Base Metals Ltd. unit, which produces nickel and copper (GM Aug. 4, 2023). The transaction is based on an enterprise value of $26 billion.

Anglo Updates on Woodsmith Polyhalite Project; FY2023 Net Profits Plunge 94%

Earnings, England, Featured

Anglo American plc said in a Feb. 22 earnings statement that it continued to make good progress in 2023 on the core infrastructure of its Woodsmith polyhalite project in North Yorkshire, in northeast England, and is working hard to identify “the right partner, structure, and opportunity” to help share the costs of the giant project.

The company in December was reported to be looking for a potential investment partner or partners to share the costs of the project, which some market watchers have put at around $9 billion (GM Jan. 5 p. 1). Anglo has not disclosed a total capital cost figure for Woodsmith. It also took a $1.7 billion write-down on the project in FY2022 (GM Feb. 24, 2023).

Anglo CEO Duncan Wanblad told analysts and investors at a company investor update presentation on Dec. 8 that the partnership thinking was not new and the company “continues at pace to find a partner.”

The company appears to be waiting for the completion of ongoing studies targeted at enhancing the project’s configuration to allow a higher production capacity and more efficient, scalable mining methods over time before it makes a final investment decision.

Wanblad said the completion of the studies and the Full Notice to Proceed (FNTP) Board decision should put Anglo in “a strong position to maximize the value to syndication.”

As previously reported, Anglo expects to submit the Woodsmith project for a Board approval decision on the FNTP in the first half of 2025. Approval is expected to be for a 5 million mt/y operation, but also still defining a clear pathway to 13 million mt/y (GM  Feb. 24, 2023). First product is still expected to be in 2027.

Anglo said it has approved a capital expenditure of $0.9 billion for Woodsmith in FY2024, the bulk of which will continue to be invested on shaft sinking and tunnel boring activities. The $0.9 billion capex for FY2024 is a big chunk of the total company-wide guided capex of $1.2 billion for growth projects for FY2024.

The company expects the capital investment for the Woodsmith project to be around $1 billion for the next few years, which is a step up from the $0.641 billion spent last year.

Anglo reported that the service shaft at Woodsmith is now about 745 meters deep, having reached the targeted depth for 2023, while the production shaft is now at a depth of about 510 meters. Excavation of the three shallow shafts that will provide both ventilation and additional access to the Mineral Transport System (MTS) is complete, while the MTS tunnel has now reached about 27.5 kilometers of the total 37 km length.

Anglo’s net profits plunged by 94% in 2023, to $283 million from $4.51 billion in 2022, on weaker metals and diamond prices. Underlying earnings before interest, taxes, and other items (EBITDA) fell to $9.96 billion from $14.5 billion, in line with analysts’ expectations of $9.95 billion.

The dividend was cut to $1.2 billion in total, or $0.96 per share, down from $2.4 billion, or $1.98, in 2022, on the back of Anglo’s weaker earnings. Wanblad said the group was adopting a “value over volume mindset” to improve returns. “We are systematically reviewing our assets and will take further actions as needed to enhance their competitiveness,” he said.

Anglo’s cut to guidance in December led to the company’s worst one-day share price since the 2008 financial crisis. The company’s market value remains 44% lower than it was in February last year, leading to speculation that a takeover bid, or activist investors seeking to break up the company, could emerge.

Yara Inks Long-Term Green Ammonia Deal from ACME Oman Facility

Ammonia, Featured, Green Ammonia, India

Yara International ASA has agreed to buy ammonia made using solar power from India’s ACME Group, according to Bloomberg. The deal, which took 18 months to negotiate, covers 100,000 mt/y in what may be the world’s first arm’s length contract for renewable ammonia on such a scale, the companies said in a statement.

ACME will supply the commodity from the first phase of its Oman manufacturing project, with an expected start date of 2027.

“The renewable ammonia from Oman will be part of our scalable distribution system, developing a reliable, safe, and cost-efficient supply chain for low emission ammonia across different market segments,” Magnus Ankarstrand, Head of Yara Clean Ammonia, said in a statement. For the Oslo-based company, the 10-year-plus deal “fits our needs very well in terms of a stable supply,” he said during an interview.

Yara wants to become a major player in supplying clean energy. It sees clean ammonia as a solution to the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors, such as shipping, power generation, and agriculture.

“The Yara deal becomes an anchor deal for us to kick start our construction activities in Oman,” Ashwani Dudeja, ACME Head of Green Hydrogen and Ammonia, said in a Feb. 29 interview. It also “sets the right tone for the industry because many customers or developers are hesitating in taking the decisions.”

On top of the commercial details, the parties had to deal with the rapidly developing regulatory environment for renewable fuels in Europe, as well as advances in technology, Yara’s Ankarstrand said. Scatec ASA, a Norwegian solar developer, pulled out of discussions last year.

Yara’s clean ammonia unit is the operator of the largest global ammonia network with 15 ships and access to 18 ammonia terminals and multiple production and consumption sites. It is exploring opportunities with Bunker Holding Group to supply clean ammonia as a marine fuel, while also evaluating potential large-scale production projects with CCS in the US for blue ammonia.

The ammonia produced by ACME, which is moving beyond pure solar generation to tap an anticipated boom in hydrogen demand, will comply with the EU renewable fuel of non-biological origin and renewable energy directive requirements, the companies said. Oman, with its sunny skies and proximity to export markets, offers low-cost electricity and funding.

Texas Farmers Sue Synagro Over PFAS

Featured, Texas

Five farmers from Johnson County, Texas, have filed a lawsuit against Maryland-based Synagro Technologies Inc. and its Texas affiliate alleging that Synagro’s biosolids fertilizer was applied to a neighbor’s farm and that it contained high levels of PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) that poisoned the plaintiffs, killed their livestock, polluted their water, and rendered their property worthless.

The plaintiffs claim Synagro’s biosolid fertilizer was produced from sewage sludge that Synagro purchased from the water treatment plant serving the City of Fort Worth, Texas. They say Synagro makes approximately 26,500 tons of fertilizer each year at that location and claims to have approximately 1,000 such contracts with water treatment plants across North America, managing 6.5 million tons of biosolids annually.

The suit, which was filed in the Circuit Court of Baltimore County, Md., alleges that Synagro falsely markets its biosolids fertilizers as safe and organic and failed to warn purchasers of the risks associated with PFAS exposure. PFAS are also known as forever chemicals.

“Similar instances of PFAS poisonings of farms, dairies, and ranches have occurred in several states,” said Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER) Science Policy Director Kyla Bennett, a scientist and attorney formerly with the US EPA. She noted that Maine has outlawed land application of biosolids after more than 60 farms were found to have unsafe levels of PFAS contamination.

“This lawsuit against Synagro will likely be the first of many,” she said. “Although civil and criminal sanctions at both the state and local levels are available, the PFAS biosolids problem calls for a national solution.”

Bennett said Johnson County, Texas, has also opened a criminal investigation into Synagro over these events. “Unfortunately, EPA has yet to act to protect consumers and farmers from these avoidable toxic exposures,” she said.

Synagro had not responded to inquiries at press time.