All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Federal Court Revokes EPA Dicamba Approvals

News Briefs, U.S.

A federal judge in Arizona revoked the US EPA’s approval of three dicamba-based weedkillers and found the agency unlawfully let farmers use them on cotton and soybean crops, according to Bloomberg Law.

The agency failed to fully account for the environmental and economic costs of dicamba’s propensity to drift to areas that weren’t targeted for weed control, Judge David C. Bury of the US District Court for the District of Arizona said in a Feb. 6 order banning the herbicides. It also failed to consider the social costs that farming communities faced from conflicts that ensued with neighboring communities over the damage from the drift, the judge said.

The EPA didn’t ask nearby areas if they were okay with letting the farmers register and spray the weedkillers, violating federal rules requiring the agency to seek public comment before issuing new insecticide, fungicide, or rodenticide approvals, according to the judge. The EPA wouldn’t have made the same decision had it done a full analysis and listened to stakeholders, he said.

The error is “very serious” and “upsets the delicate balance created by Congress between agency determinations and judicial review,” Bury said.

The Center for Biological Diversity and other groups sued the EPA in 2020 to block XtendiMax, Engenia, and Tavium, three herbicides used to control broad-leaf weeds in crops, from re-registering with the EPA. The Arizona-based environmental activism organization claimed the weedkillers have caused immense environmental damage to crops, endangered species, critical habitats, and plants that weren’t supposed to be destroyed.

The Center for Biological Diversity and Center for Food Safety represented themselves, as well as the National Farm Family Coalition and Pesticide Action Network North America.

The federal agency first approved XtendiMax, Enginia, and Taviu in 2017 to be sprayed on cotton and soybean crops that were genetically engineered by biotechnology giant Bayer AG to be resistant to the pesticides.

“I hope the court’s emphatic rejection of the EPA’s reckless approval of dicamba will spur the agency to finally stop ignoring the far-reaching harm caused by this dangerous pesticide,” Nathan Donley, Environmental Health Science Director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement.

The Agricultural Retailers Association (ARA) issued a statement saying it disagrees with the decision. “It removes a determination that should be made by a science-based regulatory agency to a federal court, and the timing of the decision will be extremely disruptive to ag retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and farmers who made plans to use these products in 2024,” said ARA Executive Director Daren Coppock.

“Farmers have already made their decisions about what varieties of cotton and soybean seed they want to plant in 2024, and retailers are already stocking not only the seed but also the herbicides these growers will need for their systems,” Coppock added. “A grower who chooses dicamba-tolerant seed is also choosing to use a dicamba product in their weed control program; otherwise, they would not buy dicamba-tolerant seed. This court decision, issued after those plans have been made and while retailers are procuring the products necessary to fulfill them, comes at the worst possible time in the season.”

Coppock encouraged the registrants to continue the defense of science-based pesticide regulation in the federal courts by appealing the decision and requesting a stay of the decision during the appeal. ARA also sent a letter to the EPA expressing its disagreement with the ruling and suggesting steps that the agency can take to help avoid unnecessary chaos and economic harm to ag retailers, distributors, and the farmers they serve.

The Far West Agribusiness Association noted that three of its members – Bayer (Xtendimax), Syngenta (Tavium), and BASF (Engenia) – manufacture the products, and said agriculture groups around the country strongly object to the ruling. It said BASF has estimated that more than 40 million acres of dicamba-tolerant soybean and cotton acres will be affected.

FMC Shares Plunge as Inventory Glut Hurts Sales

Brazil, News Briefs, U.S.

Shares of pesticide maker FMC Corp. fell the most since October after reporting disappointing fourth-quarter earnings and signaling a slower-than-expected recovery this year, according to Bloomberg.

The stock dropped as much as 14% to mark the biggest decline among companies in the S&P 500 index. The plunge came after the Philadelphia-based company posted earnings on Feb. 5 after the market closed, with results missing analysts’ estimates.

FMC’s results epitomize the challenges faced by crop chemical producers and especially those with business heavily weighted in Brazil, the world’s largest soybean and corn exporter. The combination of a glut of high-cost inventories held by distributors and adverse weather has eroded sales of agriculture products.

It may take “well into 2024” for FMC to work through excess stock, with “more normal market conditions” expected next year and in 2026, CEO Mark Douglas said in a Feb. 6 call with analysts.

The earnings report showed a 25% drop in fourth-quarter sales volume and a 5% decline in prices, both more than analysts expected. FMC said it expects per-share adjusted earnings of $3.23-$4.41 for the full year, trailing the midpoint of average of analysts’ estimates. FMC’s adjusted EBITDA fell 41% for the fourth quarter and 30% for the full year.

FMC’s results contrast with rival Corteva Inc., which saw its shares surge by the most ever earlier this month as it predicted improvements within the crop protection industry. Corteva’s operating EBITDA was up 5% for the year.

Douglas said FMC is nearly finished downsizing operations in Brazil as part of a broader restructuring aimed at saving $150 million through 2025. About 8% of FMC’s workforce will be impacted by the consolidation of roles and reduced team structures, he said.

Ammonia

Ammonia, Brazil, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Iran, Market Watch, Northwestern Europe, Pacific N.W., Tampa, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

Ammonia prices remain under pressure in the US and abroad as sources speculate about another possible drop in the Tampa price for March. February’s $445/mt CFR Tampa contract was down $80/mt from January’s $525/mt CFR price.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia continued to be reported in the $550-$575/st FOB range for prompt tons and $590-$600/st FOB for spring prepay out of terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, though sources referred to “name your price” negotiations occurring for limited new transactions. The warm weather has reportedly resulted in some early ammonia applications taking place in Tennessee and Missouri.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia was steady at $550-$580/st FOB or DEL in Iowa and Nebraska for prompt tons, with spring prepay prices reported in the $580-$600/st FOB range, depending on location.

California:

Anhydrous ammonia was unchanged at $795/st DEL in California, with aqua ammonia prices referenced at $217/st FOB Stockton and $227/st FOB Sycamore.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest slipped to $625/st FOB, down from $650/st FOB at last report, with rail-DEL offers also quoted at the $625/st level. The aqua ammonia market was pegged at $160/st FOB in the region, down from the prior $165/st FOB level.

Western Canada:

Ammonia was quoted at C$975/mt FOB and C$1,050/mt DEL for spring tons in Western Canada.

Northwest Europe:

With natural gas prices stable-to-soft and the European winter drawing to a close, sources said ammonia prices in Northwest Europe are likely to see more bears than bulls going forward. While the current price continues at $480-$490/mt CFR, sources said sentiments are shifting as the import appetite remains subdued and costs favor production.

Market sources indicated that any substantial change in the price may have to wait until the next Tampa settlement, however.

Iran:  

Iran exported 30,000 mt of ammonia in January, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 46% from one year earlier. India took 95% of the month’s exports.

Turkey:         

Sources have repeatedly said that Turkey receives ammonia from Venezuela at discounted rates. Import data assembled by Trade Data Monitor from official Turkish figures does not show any imports from the South American country, however.

The tonnage does not come directly from Venezuela, one trader said, but is often combined with ammonia from other suppliers such as Trinidad and Tobago. The same maneuver is used with Iranian product, said sources.

In the case of Iranian imports, the Turkish government reported 2023 receipts totaling 30,000 mt. During the same period, the Iranian government reported shipping 66,000 mt to Turkey. The difference in reporting between importing and exporting countries can often be attributed to the lag between when a product was shipped and when the tons were logged by the receiving country.

Turkish ammonia imports totaled 828,000 mt in 2023, according to Trade Data Monitor, up 4% from the year-ago 796,000 mt, with Egypt sending 169,000 mt. Trinidad was recorded shipping 168,000 mt to Turkey for the year, though sources speculated that some of the material may have originated in Venezuela. Libya shipped 104,000 mt.

December imports were reported at 61,000 mt, down about one-third from the 92,000 mt received in December 2022.

Brazil:

January ammonia exports from Brazil reflected the country’s on again/off again export style. Brazil shipped just 20 mt for the month, Trade Data Monitor reported, against 18,000 mt sent in January 2023. Brazil only exports ammonia when it has unexpected large reserves of material, sources noted. During all of 2023, Brazil sent just 33,000 mt abroad.

January imports were 46,000 mt, a significant increase from the 15,000 mt received in January 2023. All of the tonnage came from Trinidad.

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Mediterranean, Middle East, Pacific N.W., Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea was quoted at $345-$350/st FOB for new February-March business this week, tightening from last week’s $345-$355/st FOB range.

February physical barge trades were quoted at $345-$348/st FOB at midweek, but business at the $350/st FOB level was confirmed on Feb. 8 for both February and March tons after earlier trades at the $347/st FOB level for March.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices edged up to $400-$410/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, above the prior week’s $390/st FOB low. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged solidly in the $400-$405/st FOB range, up from last week’s $390-$400/st FOB, while most Illinois River terminals were reported at the $405/st FOB level during the week.

In the Great Lakes region, Michigan sources quoted the latest urea offers at $420-$440/st FOB and $445-$455/st DEL, depending on location and time of shipment.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea was reported at $390-$410/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with both the high and low confirmed in St. Louis, Mo., during the week.

California:

Granular pricing in California strengthened to $510/st FOB Stockton, up $20/st from last report, with prilled urea remaining at the $580/st level FOB San Diego. No current rail-DEL urea prices were confirmed in the state in early February.

Pacific Northwest:

Sources reported higher urea prices in the Pacific Northwest in early February. The latest offers jumped to $480/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., $485/st FOB Aurora, Ore., and $515-$540/st DEL, up from the prior $425-$430/st FOB and $458-$490/st DEL ranges, respectively.

Western Canada:

Urea firmed to C$690/mt FOB and C$720-$765/mt DEL in Western Canada, depending on location and time of shipment, up significantly from the previous C$650-$655/mt FOB and C$660-$685/mt DEL ranges.

Black Sea:     

Urea prices in the Black Sea moved up in step with the rest of the world. While initial reports hinted at a new $305/mt FOB price for prilled urea, confirmed deals showed the market leaping to $311-$317/mt FOB during the week.

India: 

Industry watchers remain convinced that a new urea tender could be called as early as mid-February. There is also a competing view that the tender will be called closer to the end of the month.

Once the tender is called, the focus will be on April deliveries. Under that timeframe, large amounts of Chinese urea are unlikely to be included in the tender, sources said, as traders expect only limited quantities of urea to ship from China in April after the government lifts its export restrictions. That will once again leave the bulk of orders to be sourced from the Arab Gulf, and possibly Russia.

Just how many tons will be taken in the next tender is a big question. India’s proposed FY2024/25 budget, which takes effect April 1, includes reduced funding for fertilizer subsidies, sources noted. So far, the government has not publicly discussed how much of that reduced amount will be used for nitrogen fertilizers – mostly consisting of urea – and how much will be allocated to phosphates.

Several cargoes booked under the previous tender will arrive at Indian ports later than expected. The Indian government told local media that seven fertilizer vessels had been diverted from their original route through the Suez Canal and Red Sea because of attacks by Houthi militants against cargo vessels passing through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

India purchased about 400,000 mt of Russian urea in the last tender. Sources said the cargoes would most likely come from the Black Sea, from which the quickest route to India runs through the Suez Canal. The seven diverted ships are now taking the longer route around the southern tip of Africa.

The government statement added that the Indian Navy is gearing up to provide an escort service for India-bound vessels. When in place, future shipments might consider using the Suez Canal once again.

Indonesia:     

Even with urea plants in Indonesia down for routine maintenance turnarounds, sources reported a growing reserve of product available for export. According to circulating reports, the government is ready to allow Pupuk to export 500,000 mt of urea this year. A selling tender will most likely be called after the country’s Feb. 14 general elections, one trader noted.

Middle East: 

Deals were reported concluding in the low-$380s/mt FOB late last week and over the weekend. The urea market’s upward price movement is reflective of a tight market, players said.

With both a new Indian tender rumored to be called by the end of the month and increased demand reported from Australia, sources said producers are beginning discussions at higher levels. The opening price has firmed into the mid-$390s/mt FOB, one trader said, with indications that nothing lower than $390/mt FOB will be considered.

The Egypt market has gone quiet as producers tackle paperwork for the February-March deals signed in the past couple of weeks. Sources said the starting price is now $410/mt FOB, based on the deals concluded last week, with producers looking to push up the price if any new buyers come knocking.

Sales from Iran have picked up. Sources reported deals at $350/mt FOB for granular urea and $360/mt FOB for prilled. Several plants currently undergoing routine maintenance turnarounds are expected back online by the end of the month.

Iran exported 342,000 mt of urea in January, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 76% from the 194,000 mt exported in January 2023. Turkey led buyers with 135,000 mt, Brazil took 71,000 mt, and Iraq bought 41,000 mt.

Mediterranean:

The Mediterranean urea market followed Egypt values higher. In Italy, buyers were reportedly paying $415-$420/mt CFR for imported granular urea, but several players said these levels are bound to climb, given current replacement values on an FOB Egypt basis.

Buyers may get some respite near the end of the month, however, when Yara Ferrara is expected to return online after a two-month shutdown.

No new prices were reported in Spain as farmers remain reluctant to accept further price increases. Similarly, no CFR deals were heard in Turkey after AGT scrapped its Jan. 30 tender and Iranian material continues to put pressure on the market with values heard at sub-$400/mt CFR levels.

China:

While urea exports from China remain nonexistent, industry watchers continue to speculate on where the price might lie should any tons find their way past the government’s customs controls.

Recent $385-$390/mt FOB sales out of Vietnam indicated a China-equivalent price of $370-$380/mt FOB, players said, with some arguing for even higher levels. Sources also pointed to Arab Gulf prices in the low-$380s/mt FOB as a marker for any theoretical Chinese exports.

Rumors continue to circulate that a small amount of urea might be released for export by late March, although there is a growing consensus that exports may not occur until early April. Even then, said one trader, the cargoes are likely to be limited to lots of 10,000 mt or less for regional Southeast Asian buyers. This expectation has also dampened hopes from India that China will be able to offer large quantities of product in its next tender.

Turkey:         

Turkey closed its 2023 urea import ledger with 3.2 million mt received, according to Trade Data Monitor, a 22% year-over-year increase from 2.6 million mt. Oman shipped 1.4 million mt, Egypt sent 902,000 mt, and Russia added 322,000 mt. Imports stood at 276,000 mt in December, off 17% from the 332,000 mt reported one year earlier.

Ethiopia:       

The Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corp. (EABC) has reportedly canceled its Jan. 29 tender for delivery of 365,000 mt through May. After scrapping tenders in the past, EABC has typically called another within weeks.

The first wave of urea purchased through Ethiopia’s final tender of 2023 arrived in January. Trade Data Monitor noted imports of 101,000 mt for the month, more than double the 50,000 mt received in January 2023, with all of the tonnage coming from Egypt.

Brazil:

Urea import prices in Brazil lifted 3.2% for the week in the face of rising international demand. Sellers are finding market conditions to be more attractive outside of Brazil and are prioritizing offers to other markets, sources said. Offers into Brazil were pegged at $390-$405/mt CFR, below the higher offers heard during the week’s Fertilizer Latino Americano (FLA) conference in Miami, Fla., though no trades were reported due to low seasonal demand in Brazil.

While some Rondonópolis suppliers held pricing at $520-$535/mt FOB ex-warehouse, lower offers remain available. Discussions were noted as low as $490-$495/mt FOB, leaving a wide range of $490-$535/mt FOB for prompt corn season demand.

Brazil imported 714,000 mt of urea in January, according to Trade Data Monitor, the country’s strongest January import total in the past five years, and up about 5% from the 680,000 mt received in January 2023.

UAN

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The latest NOLA UAN indications inched up to $240-$245/st ($7.50-$7.66/unit) FOB, above last week’s $235-$240/st ($7.34-$7.50/unit) range, though no actual trades or offers were confirmed. Reports of some lost domestic production during the January cold snap, as well as delays on shipping earlier commitments, fueled the rising sentiment.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was quoted at $275-$290/st ($8.59-$9.06/unit) FOB regional terminals, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low reported at Cincinnati and Mount Vernon, Ind., for prompt tons. Most spring offers fell in the $285-$290/st ($8.91-$906/unit) FOB range in the region.

Cincinnati pricing for UAN-28 was pegged at $241-$245/st ($8.61-$8.75/unit) FOB for prompt and $254/st ($9.07/unit) FOB for spring tons. In the Great Lakes region, pricing out of Michigan terminals ranged from $262-$282/st ($9.36-$10.07/unit) FOB for prompt and $278-$287/st ($9.93-$10.25/unit) FOB for prepay.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was unchanged at $260-$285/st ($8.13-$8.91/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low at Port Neal, Iowa, for prompt tons. The St. Louis market remained at $275/st ($8.59/unit) FOB for prompt material, with truck-DEL offers pegged at the $280-$285/st ($8.75-$8.91/unit) level in Iowa and Missouri.

California:

UAN-32 remained at $340-$360/st ($10.63-$11.25/unit) FOB Stockton, with the last rail-DEL tons quoted at the $315-$330/st ($9.84-$10.31/unit) level in California, depending on location. Sources said the Port Hueneme UAN terminal will be resupplied in April following a recent tank repair.

Pacific Northwest:

The latest UAN-32 offers were pegged at $320/st ($10.00/unit) FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with delivered pricing in the $333-$350/st ($10.41-$10.94/unit) range in the region.

Western Canada:

UAN-28 prices in Western Canada were pegged at C$455-$480/mt (C$16.25-$17.14/unit) DEL, up from C$420-$430/mt (C$15.00-$15.36/unit) DEL at last report.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northwestern Europe, Pacific N.W., Southeast, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

No new NOLA ammonium sulfate trades were reported during the week, leaving the last-done business at the previous week’s $275/st FOB level.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing reportedly firmed to $315-$335/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Illinois on a spot basis. The Cincinnati market was pegged in a broad range at $320-$335/st FOB, depending on supplier. Postings from IOC included $325/st FOB Ohio River terminals and $335/st FOB Illinois River terminals.

Recent granular ammonium sulfate offers in the Great Lakes region included $355-$365/st DEL.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was steady at $300-$330/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt. IOC’s Jan. 31 postings included $325/st FOB St. Louis, $335/st FOB Upper Mississippi River terminals, $350/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa, Omaha, Neb., and Casselton, N.D., and $345/st rail-DEL in the Northern Plains.

Southeast:

AdvanSix on Feb. 5 raised its Hopewell, Va., ammonium sulfate prices to $350/st FOB for granular, $330/st FOB for mid-grade, and $310/st FOB for standard. The new list prices reflect a $15/st increase for granular and a $25/st increase for mid-grade and standard from AdvanSix’s Dec. 18, 2023, postings.

California:

The ammonium sulfate market strengthened to $345-$355/st FOB in California, depending on location, up from the prior $320-$350/st FOB range.

Pacific Northwest:

The ammonium sulfate market jumped to $330-$350/st FOB or DEL for the latest offers in the Pacific Northwest, up from the prior $290-$330/st range.

Western Canada:

Ammonium sulfate pricing in Western Canada was up slightly, to C$475-$490/mt DEL from the prior C$470-$480/mt DEL range.

Northwest Europe:

Granular ammonium sulfate offers ranged from €200-€215/mt FOB Northwest Europe, but no fresh deals were confirmed by suppliers or traders. This range reflects $215-$230/mt FOB at current exchange rates.

China:

Recent sales to South Korea and the Philippines put the netback for Chinese caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate at $140-$148/mt FOB. Within moments of the deals being closed, producers said they would accept nothing less than $150/mt FOB in the next round of business.

Discussions reported late in the week could move the price to $155/mt FOB, sources said. The higher level came as the country was preparing to shut down for a week to celebrate the Lunar New Year holidays, however. Traders and producers agreed that once the holiday break is over, prices could easily firm into the mid- or upper-$150s/mt FOB.

Turkey:         

Turkey imported 705,000 mt of amsul in 2023, Trade Data Monitor reported, down 31% from the year-ago 1 million mt. China accounted for 68% of the year’s imports with 488,000 mt, followed by Belgium with 133,000 mt. December imports of 26,000 mt were off sharply from the 96,000 mt received in December 2022.

Brazil:

Brazil amsul was steady at $175-$185/mt CFR for the week, with indications rising to $195/mt CFR for delivery in April or later. Prices were expected to strengthen in line with the global raw materials markets.

Rondonópolis prices softened to $300-$315/mt FOB ex-warehouse on limited demand, falling from $300-$320/mt FOB at last report.

January imports of ammonium sulfate stood at 405,000 mt, rising 12% from the year-ago 361,000 mt. According to Trade Data Monitor, the total represents Brazil’s largest January amsul haul in the past five years.

DAP/MAP

Benelux, Brazil, California, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Morocco, Pacific N.W., U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP was posted at $630/st FOB, sources said, steady from last week, while MAP trucks continued at $655/st FOB. North Florida MAP offers were stable at $650/st FOB.

US Gulf:

NOLA DAP barges were priced at $578-$585/st FOB, players said, narrowing from the week-ago $575-$590/st FOB, while local product indicated at $600/st FOB was not reported to transact. Sources pegged NOLA MAP business at $600-$620/st FOB, off $10/st from the prior week’s high, with full-March trades noted at the bottom of the range.

US Exports:

DAP and MAP exports from the US Gulf were steady at $570/mt FOB for the last reported deals.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP was quoted at $635-$655/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals and the high on the Ohio River. MAP slipped to $670-$690/st FOB in the region, with the low again confirmed on the Illinois River. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $650-$655/st FOB for DAP and $675-$685/st FOB for MAP in early February.

Recent offers in the Great Lakes region included MAP at $720-$730/st FOB Michigan warehouses and DAP at $685/st FOB or DEL.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP remained at $635-$650/st FOB and MAP at $660-$690/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the lower end of both ranges confirmed at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

California:

MAP was pegged at a solid $760-$765/st FOB or DEL level in California.

Pacific Northwest:

MAP was unchanged at $745-$755/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, with the low reported in Idaho.

Western Canada:

MAP was strengthening in Western Canada, with the latest offers reported at C$1,110-$1,120/mt FOB and C$1,120-$1,130/mt DEL, up from C$1,080-$1,085/mt FOB or DEL at last report.

Benelux:

Protests by farmers erupted in both Eastern and Western Europe last week, with some delays reported in fertilizer movement, particularly at Belgian ports.

The Benelux DAP price increased to €585-€595/mt FCA terminal, equivalent to $630-$640/mt FCA, up from the prior $620-$625/mt range. Offers increased again as the week progressed, to €605-€610/mt FCA on reports of limited Baltic spot availability, with both Russian and Lithuanian suppliers reportedly targeting further increases in Western Europe.

Morocco:

Moroccan DAP prices were reported at $550-$610/mt FOB, with the low end based on netbacks from sales into India and the high reflecting business into Western Europe. OCP is understood to be targeting above $600/mt FOB for any new business into Europe, with further increases possible if the recent logistics issues stemming from farmer protests continue.

China:

Earlier excitement surrounding the rumored release of DAP and MAP exports in early- to mid-March has faded. Sources now think the market may have to wait until late March or even early April for exports to resume.

Even with no exports allowed, sources have calculated the potential price of DAP from China should tons be permitted to ship. The market has remained strong, leading traders to predict prices in the $575-$580/mt FOB range. This price fits with the $595/mt CFR paid by India to OCP last week.

Any discussions with phosphate producers are now on hold. Most offices in China began closing on Feb. 8 for the weeklong Lunar New Year celebration.

India: 

No new deals were reported in India. The price remains at $595/mt CFR.

Brazil:

MAP imports continued at $550-$560/mt CFR. While inland demand for the 2024/25 soybean season has remained muted due to low commodities prices, some regions are reducing prices in an effort to reignite buyer interest.

MAP prices were stable in the $670-$690/mt FOB ex-warehouse range at Rondonópolis, with current demand driven by the soybean planting season. MAP indications varied widely across the region, however. Rumored one-off deals were heard below $670/mt FOB, while some players reportedly offered product above $700/mt FOB. Neither extreme was confirmed, however.

Trade Data Monitor reported January MAP imports falling 63% year-over-year, to 144,000 mt from 388,000 mt. First-quarter MAP imports are historically low in Brazil, though deliveries typically pick up in April.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barges edged higher, to $445-$470/st FOB from last week’s $445-$465/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP was reported at $520-$535/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati. Recent offers in the Great Lakes region included $560-$570/st DEL in Michigan.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP was unchanged at $505-$535/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis for February tons.

Brazil:

The landed price of TSP continued at $425-$430/mt CFR. The Rondonópolis market was noted at $520-$540/mt FOB ex-warehouse, unchanged from last week.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:

SSP 19-21 fell to $190-$210/mt CFR in Brazil, off from the $200-$220/mt CFR range reported one week earlier. The most aggressive prices were attached to sales of complex mineral product, used in the manufacture of blended fertilizers.

Rondonópolis SSP 19-21 continued in the $320-$345/mt FOB ex-warehouse range. SSP-23 fell slightly, however, to $365-$370/mt FOB from last week’s $365-$375/mt FOB.