All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Ammonia

Ammonia, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Middle East, Pacific N.W., Southeast Asia, Tampa, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

Tampa ammonia for December was concluded on Nov. 29 at $625/mt CFR, a rollover from November.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia remained at $725-$750/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and producer.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonia market was unchanged at $715-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in Nebraska and the high in Iowa and Missouri.

California:

Anhydrous ammonia reference prices in California were slated to firm to $795/st DEL on Dec. 1, up from the current $740/st DEL posting. Aqua ammonia prices were also scheduled to increase, moving from $200-$210/st FOB up to $217-$227/st FOB on Dec. 1, depending on location.

Pacific Northwest:

Anhydrous ammonia prices remained at $830-$850/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location, with aqua ammonia unchanged at the $220/st FOB level.

Western Canada:

Ammonia pricing was down significantly in Western Canada, falling to C$850/mt DEL for November-December fill offers, well below the last confirmed C$1,295/mt DEL level for prompt fall tons.

Middle East: 

Sources described the region’s main ammonia activity for the week as handling routine contract sales and loadings, with no new spot deals reported. The latest bids were noted around $500/mt FOB, about $50/mt down from the last spot sale. While no deals were confirmed at that level, sources said it is only a matter of time before it happens.

Southeast Asia:         

Pupuk is having a hard time finding a buyer for an ammonia cargo of December material, sources said. Bids for the cargo were reported at sub-$520/mt FOB levels, while the producer is looking for a deal in the upper-$520s/mt FOB. The gap in pricing ideas for the Indonesian tons exemplifies the general situation in the region, said one trader.

Turkey:

January-October ammonia imports in Turkey totaled 685,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 19% increase from the year-ago 577,000 mt. October imports were 53,000 mt, down 15% from 62,000 in October 2022. Egypt led suppliers with 24,000 mt, followed by Russia with 15,000 mt.

Urea

Argentina, Black Sea, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Pacific N.W., Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea rebounded slightly during the week. New trades were confirmed at $295-$310/st FOB for prompt or December business, up from last week’s $292-$305/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea was quoted at $365-$400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low reported at Cincinnati, Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea slipped to $365-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down $15-$20/st from the previous week, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo.

California:

Granular urea pricing in California reportedly dropped to $510/st FOB Stockton, down from the prior $530-$535/st FOB range, with rail-DEL urea falling to $420-$450/st from the previous $500-$510/st DEL level. Prilled urea remained at $600/st FOB San Diego.

Pacific Northwest:

Urea dropped to $425-$430/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, down from the prior $475-$480/st FOB level, with the low confirmed at Rivergate, Ore. Delivered pricing slipped to $450-$474/st in the region, below the previous $470-$494/st DEL range.

Western Canada:

Urea prices were down in Western Canada, falling to C$660-$685/mt DEL for the latest December-January offers, well below the C$750-$760/mt DEL range reported in early November. No current FOB offers were confirmed in the region in late November.

Black Sea:      

The price for prilled urea out of the Black Sea followed the global trend downward. Sources now put the price at $280-$290/mt FOB.

India: 

Sources are becoming more convinced that the next urea tender will not take place until early January 2024. While some continue to speculate that a tender call could still occur in December, the sense from India is that nothing more will happen this year. India still needs 1-1.5 million mt of urea to close out the fiscal year, which ends March 31, 2024.

Even as vessels begin to arrive with material from the last tender, sources said distribution of urea in the country is uneven. Some local distributors reportedly have plentiful supplies but few buyers, while long lines for limited tonnage were reported in other areas.

Pakistan:       

After a week of speculation, Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) finally pulled the plug on its tender for 200,000 mt of urea. Sources put the tender’s best offer price at $370/mt CFR, a level that TCP estimated was too high for the current market.

At the same time TCP was holding its tender, the company was also talking with other countries to secure the necessary urea at more favorable government-to-government rates. In the end, TCP scrapped the tender and accepted a deal with Azerbaijan for the full 200,000 mt.

Indonesia:     

Pupuk’s last tender price of $340/mt FOB for granular urea now seems high for the market, said sources. End users continue to push for lower prices, leaving Samsung, the winner of the last auction, holding material that many now think is overpriced.

By all appearances, Samsung was planning on using the material from the tender to cover a sale to Ethiopia through the Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corp. (EABC) tender. EABC has still not issued awards in the tender, however, and sources said the buyer may be trying for lower prices.

The continued delay in issuing an award could leave Samsung with a December cargo of granular urea with no home.

Thailand:      

Thailand imported 2.2 million mt of urea in January-October 2023, according to Trade Data Monitor, up 34% from the 1.7 million mt received through the first ten months of 2022. October imports were steady year-over-year, at 132,000 mt.

Middle East: 

Producers this week focused on fully covering contracts and handling the approximately 460,000 mt of urea awarded in the last Indian tender.

The market’s softness was reflected in bids nearing $300/mt FOB, sources reported. No deals were cut at this level, but one trader said the bids were unsurprising given the general decline in international prices.

Late last week, reports circulated that Egyptian producers had beat out their counterparts from Russia and Uzbekistan to close deals at $360-$363/mt FOB. Shortly after the transactions closed, Helwan confirmed a sale of granular urea at $355-$360/mt FOB.

The rapid price drop had buyers bidding at $340/mt FOB during the week, while producers were reported holding firm at $350/mt FOB.

Turkey:         

Buyers were reported playing producers from Russia, Uzbekistan, and Egypt against each other in a search for ever-lower prices. Sources said some Nigerian urea may have also been part of the discussions. In the end, the Egyptian producers won out, sources said.

Trade Data Monitor put January-October urea imports at 2.8 million mt, up 39% from the 2 million mt received one year earlier. October imports of 145,000 mt were off 57% from 343,000 mt in October 2022, with about half of the tonnage coming from Oman.

Ethiopia:       

EABC has yet to confirm potential awards in its urea tender for 562,000 mt. Sources tied the delay to the significant decline in urea prices since the tender closed in early November. The buyer may try to negotiate lower prices, one trader speculated.

Shipments under the tender are slated to begin in December and continue through May 2024.

China:

The week closed with Chinese authorities halting urea export inspections at several ports. Sources said all ports could be affected by Nov. 30. The move effectively stops the export of any urea that has not already received permission to be loaded to a vessel. The ban on inspections and exports is expected to last through March 2024.

The action came on the heels of reports that a new quota system, designed to limit exports of fertilizers to 3-4 million mt, would be established through the first quarter of 2025.

The ending of inspections is not expected to affect the tons already cleared for shipment to India under the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender. Those who will be most impacted are the regional buyers, who typically buy smaller 5,000-8,000 mt lots.

No one expected any large shipments of urea until the next Indian tender call. Even then, sources did not anticipate Chinese urea to play a major role in satisfying India’s demand. The new export policy, and now the announcement to end inspections into April 2024, effectively takes Chinese urea out of consideration.

The high price of domestic urea caused concern for Beijing, prompting the export quota plan and now the outright ban on exports. The market’s current export price, estimated in the upper-$350s/mt FOB, is based on the domestic market and is too high for international buyers. Prices are now expected to come down as domestic reserves build.

One trader noted a possible upside under the new policy. As domestic prices will be forced down and exports will be limited, Chinese traders with urea available for export after inspections resume might be able to offer the product at lower prices than other sources.

However, Chinese producers and traders decided a few years back to no longer be a low-cost supplier. If and when urea is once again exported from China, sources said the price will fit in with the prevailing international price.

Brazil:

Brazil urea prices were noted at $310-$320/mt CFR, tightening from last week’s $300-$330/mt CFR. Last week’s low prices were no longer available, players said, as improved weather conditions and positive barter ratios appeared to stimulate demand. Market players are now estimating a 25% reduction in demand for safrinha.

More aggressive urea offers have begun to appear in the Rondonópolis market, accelerating the pace of sales. Though some material continued to be offered at $480-$490/mt FOB ex-warehouse, low liquidity at these levels, along with pressure to increase demand, drove new business to $450-$465/mt FOB by the end of the week.

The slight increase in demand was a positive for corn safrinha planting. Drought conditions in the region have delayed the soybean season, pressuring the safrinha and reducing corn production potential by as much as 15 million mt, according to MB Agro Consultancy partner Alexandre Mendonça, as reported by Reuters.

Argentina:    

January-October urea imports softened 30% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 561,000 mt from 800,000 mt. October imports were 45,000 mt, a 42% decline from the 77,000 mt imported last October. Egypt sent 26,000 mt for the month.

UAN

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA UAN market remained at $255-$265/st ($7.97-$8.28/unit) FOB for the last trades, with no new business reported to test the market.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was unchanged at $295-$310/st ($9.22-$9.69/unit) FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for November-January tons, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati and Mount Vernon, Ind. The latest UAN-28 offers FOB Cincinnati were pegged at $259-$270/st ($9.25-$9.64/unit) FOB, depending on time of shipment.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was steady at $295-$320/st ($9.22-$10.00/unit) FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the high confirmed in Iowa. UAN-28 pricing fell to a broad $300-$330/st ($10.71-$11.78/unit) DEL range in the Northern Plains for tons from Canada, below the prior $325-$335/st ($11.61-$11.96/unit) DEL level.

California:

UAN-32 pricing in California remained at $350/st ($10.94/unit) FOB Stockton, with rail-DEL offers quoted in the $340-$345/st ($10.63-$10.71/unit) range in the state, down from $360-$370/st ($11.25-$11.56/unit) DEL at last report.

Pacific Northwest:

UAN-32 was unchanged at $370/st ($11.56/unit) FOB Kennewick, Wash., with delivered pricing pegged at $341-$350/st ($10.66-$10.94/unit) in the Pacific Northwest.

Western Canada:

The UAN-28 market slipped to C$430/mt (C$15.36/unit) DEL in Western Canada for December-January tons, down from the prior C$465-$480/mt (C$16.61-17.14/unit) DEL range.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Indonesia, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Thailand, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA ammonium sulfate market remained at a nominal $270-$275/st FOB, with no new business reported. Sources said some higher 2Q offers at upriver terminals would likely net back to roughly $315/st FOB NOLA, but no sales were confirmed and no buyers seem willing to book tons that far in advance, sources said.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt was pegged at $300-$335/st FOB in late November, with the low confirmed at spot river terminals in Illinois and the high at inland warehouses.

Western Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium remained in a broad range at $290-$330/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

California:

The ammonium sulfate market in California was unchanged at $320-$350/st FOB and $350/st DEL, depending on grade and location, with the low reported at Lathrop, Woodland, and Richvale. The latest posting FOB Helm was steady at the $330/st FOB level in late November.

Pacific Northwest:

The ammonium sulfate market softened to $285-$325/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, with the low for standard grade and the high for granular.

Western Canada:

Ammonium sulfate prices were quoted at C$480-$485/mt DEL in Western Canada for November-January tons.

China:

The new export policy covering urea and phosphate fertilizers does not apply to ammonium sulfate, sources said. Amsul was most likely left off the restricted list because it is seen as a byproduct, one trader noted. This will allow amsul producers to continue pushing out their product to buyers looking for nitrogen content, but without paying the higher prices often demanded by urea.

Even though urea will be restricted from China in 2024, sources expect amsul prices to continue following the global urea market. For now, that means a further drop in prices, with sources now putting caprolactam grade amsul at $132-$137/mt FOB.

Offers reported into a tender in Indonesia showed a netback to China of $100-$105/mt FOB. Traders said they were not aware of any deals concluded at that level, however, and producers dismissed the price as too low for the current market.

Indonesia:     

Pupuk closed a tender for three 25,000 mt cargoes of caprolactam grade amsul. Sources said the lowest offered price was $120/mt CFR, for a netback to China of $100-$105/mt FOB. Even at this low price, one trader said Pupuk was pushing for an even better deal. At the same time, amsul producers disputed the price, saying it was too low for the current market.

Turkey:         

Ammonium sulfate imports totaled 27,000 mt in October, Trade Data Monitor reported, down 37% from the 43,000 mt received in October 2022. China sent 15,000 mt, for 56% of the month’s imports, followed by Finland with 12,000 mt.

Thailand:      

Thailand imported 259,000 mt of ammonium sulfate in January-October, according to Trade Data Monitor, off27% from the year-ago 356,000 mt. October imports were 28,000 mt, a slight increase from 25,000 mt in October 2022. China supplied the full October consignment.

Brazil:

Ammonium sulfate import prices fell to $150-$165/mt CFR, off from $150-$175/mt CFR at last report, with multiple transactions confirmed at the top of the range. Ammonium sulfate prices followed the urea market lower at Rondonópolis, to $300-$315/mt FOB ex-warehouse from $310-$320/mt FOB last week.

DAP/MAP

Argentina, Brazil, California, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP trucks were reported at a flat $550/st FOB. MAP prices declined 6.2%, however, to $610/st FOB from the week-ago $650/st FOB. North Florida MAP postings were unchanged from the prior report, with trucks loading from White Springs, Fla., priced at $625/st FOB.

US Gulf:

Phosphate demand remains healthy as the market awaits OCP’s return to the market under the new countervailing duty conditions. DAP prices strengthened to $545-$565/st FOB, a rise from last week’s $540-$545/st FOB. Prompt barges were priced at the top of the range, while December barges and 1Q 2024 loadings set the floor.

MAP prices firmed slightly, to $590-$610/st FOB from last week’s $590-$600/st FOB range. Sources reported upriver trades at $590/st FOB, matching the low at NOLA. MAP availability remains limited, sources said.

US Exports:

No new DAP and MAP export transactions were reported, leaving prices unchanged at $570/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP was steady at $590-$600/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati. MAP slipped to $685-$695/st FOB, down $5/st from last report, with the low again reported at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP was quoted at $570-$595/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis. MAP pricing landed in the $675-$700/st FOB range in the region in late November, with the low again confirmed at St. Louis and the high reported in Iowa.

California:

MAP pricing in California was pegged at $730-$750/st FOB or DEL in late November, with the low confirmed in Northern California.

Pacific Northwest:

MAP was quoted at $720-$740/st FOB or DEL for prompt tons in the Pacific Northwest in late November. Business at the $695-$705/st DEL level was also reported for 1Q shipments.

Western Canada:

MAP slipped to C$1,050/mt FOB for December-January tons in Western Canada, with delivered prices remaining in the C$1,050-$1,060/mt range.

China:

DAP and MAP exports will be restricted from China in 2024, although the restrictions do not seem to apply to the 400,000 mt currently available at the ports. However, sources speculated that the ban on urea export inspections might also be extended to DAP and MAP.

The price for Chinese DAP remains in the upper-$560s/mt FOB, sources said, despite increasing pressure from India to drop the price to at least $500/mt FOB.

India: 

Buyers continue to look for lower DAP prices but keep coming up empty. Arab producers are being just as stubborn as the Chinese producers in refusing to lower their prices, sources said, calling the latest offers into India in the low-$590s/mt CFR, above the last-done level in the upper-$580s/mt CFR.

The Indian government’s decision to reduce the subsidy for phosphates has left importers with the difficult situation of having to supply a product that is currently more expensive to import than the allowable selling price in the country.

Brazil:

Landed MAP prices softened $5/mt at the top of the range, settling at $560-$565/mt CFR. Sources continued to report limited demand for prompt shipments and low supply in the inland markets.

Prices at Rondonópolis softened to $680-$685/mt FOB ex-warehouse for December and January deliveries, falling from $690-$710/mt FOB reported in recent weeks. Players described a mostly stable market, citing low availability nationwide.

Argentina:    

MAP imports to Argentina fell in January-October, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 635,000 mt from 749,000 mt one year earlier. Imports were 74,000 mt in October, about half of the October 2022 total of 144,000 mt. China supplied 70% of the October tonnage, sending 52,000 mt.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

A flurry of transactions sent NOLA TSP barge prices down to $440-$450/st FOB, off from last week’s $458-$465/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP was unchanged at $525-$540/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, though some locations were reportedly sold out in late November.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP remained at $510-$535/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis and the high at Caruthersville, Mo.

Brazil:

TSP import prices declined slightly, to $420-$440/mt CFR from the week-ago $430-$440/mt CFR. The Rondonópolis market fell $10/mt on low trading volume, to $530-$540/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:

Landed SSP 19-21 prices firmed to $185-$210/mt CFR in Brazil, up $5-$10/mt from last week’s $175-$205/mt CFR.

Prices at Rondonópolis lifted to the $340-$350/mt FOB ex-warehouse range, up from $325-$350/mt FOB in the previous week, with negotiations centered on demand for the 2024/25 soybean season.

Phosphoric Acid

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

December phosphoric acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt were reported at the $11.90/unit rail-DEL level, up from November’s $10.90/unit DEL price.

Western Cornbelt:

A $1/unit increase in phos acid pricing was slated to take effect on Dec. 1 in the Western Cornbelt, pushing the regional market to $11.90/unit rail-DEL from November’s $10.90/unit DEL level.

California:

November pricing for phos acid remained at $11.00/unit rail-DEL in California, with MGA referenced at $11.20/unit FOB Lathrop. A $1/unit increase was scheduled to take effect on Dec. 1, however, pushing the California market to $12.00/unit rail-DEL and $12.20/unit FOB Lathrop.

Pacific Northwest:

Phos acid pricing for November was steady at $10.50/unit FOB Pocatello, Idaho, and $11.00/unit rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest. A $1/unit increase on Dec. 1 pushed reference pricing up to $12.00/unit rail-DEL and $11.50/unit FOB Pocatello for December.