All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Muriate of Potash

Bangladesh, Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Potash Muriate, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA potash market was reported at $340-$350/st FOB for November business during the week. Rumors of new trades at the $360/st level for loaded and moving barges could not be confirmed.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash prices reportedly strengthened again, firming to $400-$420/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt from last week’s $400-$410/st range. Sources pegged the Cincinnati potash market solidly at the $405-$415/st FOB level in early November.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash firmed to $400-$410/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at Caruthersville. The latest St. Louis offers were pegged at the $405-$410/st FOB level, up from the previous $390-$395/st FOB range.

Southern Plains:

The potash market strengthened to $400-$410/st FOB Catoosa/Inola and Houston for the latest business, up from $390-$395/st FOB at last report. The last postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $445/st for 60% white granular and $453/st for 62% white standard.

South Central:

Potash was quoted at $390-$405/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, up from the previous $380-$395/st FOB range, with the low reported at Memphis and the high out of river terminals in Kentucky. The Little Rock, Ark., market was pegged at the $400/st FOB level in early November.

Southeast:

Potash was unchanged at $360-$370/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, with reports of rail-DEL Canadian tons at the $385-$390/st level.

Bangladesh:  

The government of Bangladesh authorized the purchase of 30,000 mt of potash on a government-to-government basis with Russia, using JSC Prodintorg as an intermediary. This action is similar to steps taken in the past to secure the country’s limited potash needs.

Thailand:      

January-September potash imports in Thailand totaled 474,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 29% decrease from the year-ago 666,000 mt. July-September imports of 181,000 mt were up slightly from the 174,000 mt received in third-quarter 2022, while imports jumped to 42,000 mt in September, above the year-ago 13,000 mt.

Brazil:

Potash imports slipped to $320-$350/mt CFR in Brazil, off from $330-$355/mt CFR at last report, with product from sanctioned origins noted at the bottom of the range. Sources cited high inventories and limited buyer interest as contributing to the softer pricing.

Slow domestic demand resulting from uncertainties in the corn safrinha continued to pressure potash suppliers into discounts at Rondonópolis. Lower offers remained at $460/mt FOB ex-warehouse, while the top of the range dropped $5/mt, to $480/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

Sulfur

ADNOC - Abu Dhabi, Alberta, Brazil, China, Market Watch, Qatar, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa:

Fourth-quarter Tampa molten sulfur contracts were valued at $102/lt CFR, an 85% increase from $55/lt CFR in the third quarter.

US Gulf:

The US Gulf market was steady at $100-$105/mt FOB, with players focused on negotiations for 2024 contracts.

Brazil:

Brazil prices pulled back to $116.50-$123/mt CFR, down from the previous week’s $125-$135/mt CFR. A new tender from CMOC is expected to close near the bottom of the range, players said.

Vancouver:

Prices dropped to $80-$90/mt FOB, a decrease from $95-$100/mt FOB at last report. Sources pointed to high sulfur inventories at Chinese ports and reduced phosphate production rates as exerting downward pressure.

Alberta:

Alberta netbacks remained steady at (-)$13-$30/mt FOB. The range included molten sulfur cargoes contracted into the US market and prilled tons sold internationally through the Vancouver export market.

West Coast:

West Coast prills dropped to $80-$90/mt FOB, in line with Vancouver. Molten sulfur contracts for the fourth quarter were reported at $85-$90/lt FOB.

China:

Pressured by high sulfur inventories and a slowdown in phosphate production rates, China sulfur imports softened to $105-$110/mt CFR.

ADNOC:

ADNOC pricing for October was reported at $111/mt FOB Ruwais. An updated price for November is expected soon.

Qatar:

November posted prices for Muntajat sulfur fell 5.77%, sources said, to $98/mt FOB Ras Laffan from $104/mt FOB in October.

Sulfuric Acid

Brazil, Market Watch, Sulfuric Acid, U.S. Gulf

US Gulf:

With the 2024 contract negotiation season ongoing in the US Gulf, sulfuric acid prices lifted to $120-$125/mt CFR, sources said, up from $105-$120/mt CFR at last report. Anticipating lower prices ahead, some buyers were reported delaying purchase decisions.

Brazil:

Brazil market players reported several sulfuric acid deals concluding in the $128-$135/mt CFR range, down from last week’s $145-$150/mt CFR.

Ammonium Thiosulfate

Amthio, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium thiosulfate market edged up to $255-$270/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate remained at $225-$260/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at Waterloo, Iowa.

Southern Plains:

The ammonium thiosulfate market was steady at $220-$250/st FOB in the Southern Plains, depending on location.

South Central:

Ammonium thiosulfate pricing was quoted at $250-$255/st FOB Memphis during the week, up $10/st from the last confirmed offers.

Crops/Weather

Crops/Weather, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt
US Drought Monitor

Eastern Cornbelt:

Freeze warnings and winter storm warnings were in effect for northern areas of the Eastern Cornbelt during the week. Lows in the 20s were common at midweek across central Illinois and Indiana, while snow squalls were reported in northern Illinois and northern Ohio on Oct. 31.

Warmer weather was on tap as the week progressed, however, with highs expected to reach the upper-50s and low-60s in all three states on Nov. 3-4.

The previous week’s rainfall slowed harvest progress on corn and soybeans in the region. While Illinois remained ahead of its average pace with 81% of the corn in the bin by Oct. 29, Indiana’s progress was estimated at just 56% complete, with Ohio trailing at 29%. The soybean harvest was 89% complete in Illinois and 79-80% in Ohio and Indiana by that date.

“It has been a slow start to the corn harvest in our market area, with very high moisture content in our corn crop,” reported one Ohio source. “I truly believe that the Canadian smoke we had for several weeks this summer has affected the growing degree days we had this year on our crops.”

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

Western Cornbelt:

A frigid start to the week brought a hard freeze to parts of Iowa and Nebraska, with northwestern areas of Nebraska collecting the first accumulated snowfall of the season. Lows in the 20s were reported across Iowa at midweek, but temperatures were expected to return to the 50s and 60s by the weekend.

The fall harvest continued at a brisk pace in late October, with progress tracking ahead of the five-year average for all crops in the region. Missouri growers had 84% of the corn in the bin by Oct. 29, compared with 76-77% in Iowa and Nebraska. The regional soybean harvest was 99-93% complete in Nebraska and Iowa, ahead of Missouri’s 75%.

Missouri’s cotton harvest was 79% complete by Oct. 29, with Nebraska’s sorghum harvest rated at 69% complete by that date.

Southern Plains:

Cold weather settled over the Southern Plains during the week. In Kansas, midweek lows dropped to a record 18 degrees in Kansas City, with temperatures falling to 24 in Wichita.

Temperatures in Oklahoma City, Okla., fell from a high of 70 on Oct. 28 to a low of 23 on Nov. 1. Much of southern New Mexico and western Texas were under a freeze warning at midweek, with lows in Houston dropping to the 30s at midweek. Weekend temperatures were expected to warm back up to the 50s and 60s, however.

The corn harvest as of Oct. 29 was tracking ahead of the average pace at 93% complete in Texas, 89% in Kansas, and 68% in Colorado, while the soybean harvest had progressed to 80% complete in Kansas by that date. Growers were also picking cotton, with progress as of Oct. 29 estimated at 43% complete in Texas, 35% in Kansas, and 33% in Oklahoma.

The sorghum harvest was 100% complete in Texas, 60% in Oklahoma, 69% in Kansas, and 68% in Colorado by Oct. 29.

South Central:

Cold temperatures blanketed much of the South Central region during the week, with lows dropping to the 50s in New Orleans. A freeze warning was in effect for Middle Tennessee and Arkansas at midweek, but warmer weather was in the forecast, with highs expected in the 70s by the weekend.

Harvest activities in the region were winding down in late October. Growers had 85-92% of the corn in the bin in Kentucky and Tennessee by Oct. 29, while the soybean harvest had progressed to 62% in Kentucky, 73% in Tennessee, 91% in Arkansas, and 97-100% in Mississippi and Louisiana.

The cotton harvest was also well-advanced at 98% complete in Louisiana, 88% in Arkansas, 84% in Mississippi, and 62% in Tennessee.

Southeast:

The first freeze warnings of the season were in effect across parts of the Southeast during the week. Lows fell to the upper-20s at midweek in Richmond, Va., Haleyville, Ala., and parts of North Carolina, with highs struggling to reach the 50s. Warmer weather was expected to return by the weekend, however, with highs climbing to the 70s.

Frost warnings were also issued for parts of northern Georgia during the week, while colder weather blanketed much of northern and central Florida as well. Highs in central Florida reportedly topped out in the 60s and low-70s at midweek.

Growers were harvesting corn, soybeans, cotton, and peanuts in the Southeast in late October. North Carolina growers had 97% of the corn and 34% of the soybeans in the bin by Oct. 29, while the region’s cotton harvest had progressed to 53% complete in Alabama, 44% in Virginia, 36% in North Carolina, 32% in Georgia, and 24% in South Carolina.

The peanut harvest as of Oct. 29 was 88% complete in Virginia, 84% in Florida, 79% in Alabama, 68% in North Carolina, 67% in Georgia, and 63% in South Carolina.

Transportation

Illinois River, Market Watch, Mississippi RIver, Ohio River, Transportation, U.S. Gulf

US Gulf:

Gate repairs have closed Algiers Lock through Dec. 1, sources said. Tows are able to detour through the Port Allen Route, adding a reported 24-48 hours to travel times.

Bayou Sorrel Lock is closed for guidewall repairs between 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. daily, leaving waits in a wide 12-32 hour range, stretching from 15-25 hours last week. Tows arriving before 4:30 p.m. were permitted to lock before the site closes the following morning, though the shutdowns were temporarily suspended whenever wait times push above 24 hours. The site was completely closed on Oct. 31 for concrete pouring.

Low head conditions triggered lengthy wait times at Harvey Lock during the early part of the week, with Corps data showing delays up to 5.5 days. Improving conditions allowed for drastically reduced waits starting on Oct. 31, though tows will continue to be limited to 300-foot lengths and 70-foot widths whenever head conditions fall below the 1.5-foot mark, sources said. The lock was completely shut between June 15 and Oct. 16 due to reverse head conditions.

Brazos Lock maintenance restricted movements between 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. daily, set to run through Nov. 29, resulting in intermittent 7-21 hour delays. Dredging at Bayou Chene is scheduled through Nov. 30, resulting in slow-travel warnings in the area.

The Ellender Bridge, located at Mile 243 of the West Canal, will close on Nov. 11-12 between 8:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. for planned maintenance. The shutdowns will repeat on Nov. 18-19.

Port Allen Lock waits were reported in the 2-3 day range due to surplus traffic from the Algiers Lock shutdown. Corps data showed intermittent five-hour delays at Industrial Lock.

Mississippi River:    

Loading drafts on the Lower Mississippi River continued to see reductions of 25-30% on northbound travel due to low water levels, sources said. Tows traveling downriver were reduced by 20-25%.

The river gauge at Vicksburg, Miss., was noted at a low-stage 2.53 feet and rising on Nov. 2. Forecasts predicted a brief crest above the 5.0-foot low stage on Nov. 9-15, followed by a return to low-stage levels as early as Nov. 16. The gauge at Memphis, noted at a low-stage (-)8.11 feet at midweek, was expected to break above the (-)5.0-foot low stage on Nov. 9-11.

Tows were restricted to five-barge widths between Cairo, Ill., and Mile 303, reducing hauls by 5-15 barges, depending on horsepower. Some sources expected a return to six-barge widths once the Memphis gauge pushes above the (-)8.0-foot market, predicted on Nov. 2.

Dredging was reported at Miles 710 and 488 on the lower river, as well as in the Baton Rouge, La., area. On the upper river, channel work was reported at Miles 481, 255, 40, and near the Kaskaskia River, located between Cairo and St. Louis.

St. Louis depths were 3.98 feet on Nov. 2, improving from (-)0.55 feet one week earlier. Forecasts showed a crest at 5.50 feet on Nov. 5-6, ahead of an expected drawdown to (-)1.10 feet on Nov. 16. Taking advantage of the conditions, maximum loading drafts increased to 90% of normal capacity at St. Louis during the week, up from 65-70% noted previously.

Locks located on the upper Mississippi are scheduled to close for the winter navigation season between Dec. 5 and March 11, 2024.

Illinois River:

Loading drafts were reduced by 5-10% on the Illinois River due to low water levels, sources said. Wickets continued in the raised position at Peoria Lock and LaGrange Lock, prompting delays up to seven hours.

Ohio River:

Loading drafts for southbound tows saw cuts of 10-15% on the Ohio River during the week. Drafts were limited to 8.5 feet on the Monongahela River.

The main chamber at John T. Myers Lock is shut through Nov. 6 for repairs and maintenance, forcing boats to pass through the auxiliary chamber. Delays were reported at 3-5 days, up from 2-5 days at last check.

The Montgomery Lock primary chamber is offline through Nov. 22, sources said. The site’s secondary chamber will close on Nov. 22-26, followed by an additional primary chamber shutdown on Nov. 26-Dec. 22. Dredging at Miles 967-975 was expected to conclude on Oct. 31, ending a period of one-way travel restrictions in the area.

On the Tennessee River, Kentucky Lock delays were quoted at 5-13 hours. Tows waited up to 18 hours to pass Wilson Lock.