All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Ammonia

Ammonia, Eastern Cornbelt, Indonesia, Market Watch, South Central, Southern Plains, Tampa, Thailand, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

The jump in November Tampa ammonia, to $625/mt CFR from October’s $575/mt, also pushed prices higher at Gulf Coast terminals. The latest offers at Gulf Coast production points in Louisiana and Texas were reported at $570-$625/st FOB for prompt truck tons, up from October’s low of $520/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia remained at $725-$750/st FOB terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and producer. Sources reported no field application in the region due to wet, cold weather conditions, but some areas were hoping to see activity start by the end of the week.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonia market was unchanged at $715-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa and Missouri.

Southern Plains:

Ammonia prices were reported at $625-$675/st FOB Oklahoma production points, with the low reported at Pryor and the high at Verdigris. Sources quoted the latest offers out of Woodward, Okla., at the $650/st FOB level.

South Central:

Ammonia prices remained at a low of $450/st FOB Midway, Tenn., with truck pricing out of Gulf Coast production points quoted in a broad range at $570-$625/st FOB, depending on location.

Indonesia:     

A Kaltim ammonia line will remain down for the rest of the month as part of a routine maintenance turnaround, sources said. No major impact is expected on the regional ammonia market, as the material turned out by the plant was slated for urea production.

Turkey:         

January-September ammonia imports totaled 632,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 23% from the year-ago 515,000 mt. Trinidad and Tobago supplied 131,000 mt, followed by Libya with 68,000 mt and Egypt with 65,000 mt. Third-quarter imports were 198,000 mt, rising 12% from 177,000 mt in July-September 2022.

While imports were up for the year, September receipts were reported at 40,000 mt, off from 80,000 mt in September 2022. Russian sent 14,000 mt, followed by Libya with 13,000 mt.

Thailand:      

Thailand ammonia imports stood at 260,000 mt in January-September, according to Trade Data Monitor, down marginally from the 270,000 mt received through the same period of 2022. Third-quarter imports totaled 71,000 mt, off from 110,000 mt in July-September 2022, while September imports of 27,000 mt fell 20% from the 33,000 mt received one year earlier.

Urea

Argentina, Bangladesh, Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Thailand, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

Limited NOLA urea transactions were confirmed in the $355-$365/st FOB range for November tons, up from last week’s $345-$355/st FOB range. Sources attributed the slight uptick in part to news of possible Egyptian natural gas curtailments and strengthening gas prices in Europe.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea pricing slumped to $410-$425/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed out of spot river terminals in Illinois and Indiana. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged at $415-$420/st FOB, down from last week’s $420-$430/st FOB range.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices in the Western Cornbelt dropped to $405-$410/st FOB St. Louis, Mo., at the low end of the range, with the high reported at the $440-$450/st FOB mark in Iowa and at Caruthersville, Mo.

Southern Plains:

Urea at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., slipped to a low of $420-$425/st FOB, down from last week’s $440-$450/st FOB range, thanks to the reopening of the Arkansas River to barges after a shutdown since mid-October due to low water and dredging activity.

Forward urea offers were reported at $415-$420/st FOB Catoosa/Inola for 1Q shipment, while some prompt prices remained as high as $445/st FOB at the port. Sources also reported recent Houston offers at the $445/st FOB level at the high end of the regional range.

“The numbers are a little sporadic out there right now depending on if you have the product or not,” reported one regional contact. “The river has been giving everyone fits, but it is back open now so people should be getting their product throughout the next few weeks.”

South Central:

Urea was pegged in a broad range at $395-$450/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low confirmed at Convent, La., and the high out of river terminals in Arkansas and Tennessee. Kentucky sources pegged the Ohio River market at $410-$425/st FOB for the latest offers.

Southeast:

Urea slipped to $440-$445/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, down from $450/st FOB in mid-October. In the Northeast, the latest urea offers at Fairless Hills, Pa., dropped to $450/st for November, down $10/st from last week.

India: 

Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) issued letters of intent (LOIs) to buy early this week. Several traders wasted no time in securing vessels for their awards, and sources reported at least eight vessels nominated for shipments to India by the end of the week.

A minimum of four cargoes will come from Indonesia, sources reported, while rumors suggested China could have up to nine cargoes available for export to India by the tender’s Dec. 20 shipping deadline. Tonnage estimates from China have already risen from last week’s 3-4 cargoes to at least 5-6 cargoes this week.

The total amount of urea awarded increased slightly as the LOIs were issued. Fertiglobe was ultimately awarded 50,000 mt instead of the 45,000 mt reported last week, lifting the total take in the tender to a reported 1,672,900 mt.

The quantity that IPL will receive between now and the end of the year, combined with increased domestic production, is expected to allow India to hold off on calling another tender until late December, said sources.

The Indian government reported September urea production at 2.65 million mt, stronger than expected. Urea production in the April-September fiscal year-to-date was reported at 15.27 million mt, above 13.93 million mt in the same period of 2022.

Even with stepped-up production and a large order in the latest tender, sources said India still needs another 1 million mt to meet year-end demand. Traders pointed to stronger-than-expected domestic sales in India to back up their view that another tender will have to be called before the end of the year.

Black Sea:     

Prilled urea from the Black Sea firmed to $345-$370/mt FOB. There are reports that product from the area will be used to cover awards from the IPL/India tender.

Bangladesh:  

Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corp. (BCIC) closed its first tender of the year. The tender called for two 50,000 mt deliveries of bagged granular urea to be shipped to Mongla and Chattogram. Even before issuing an award in the tender, BCIC called a second tender to close on Nov. 14. The new tender calls for Mongla and Chittagong to each receive an additional 50,000 mt of granular urea.

Sources reported the lowest prices offered in the first tender at $498-$506/mt CFR bagged, with no awards yet issued. The freight from China was said to run $50/mt, providing a healthy netback of around $450/mt FOB at a time when the China granular price is pegged in the mid-$380s/mt FOB.

In addition to the tenders, the government directed BCIC to purchase 300,000 mt from SABIC under a long-standing government-to-government arrangement between Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia. The government also instructed BCIC to pick up an additional 30,000 mt from the UAE through Fertiglobe.

Thailand:      

SABIC continues to dominate the Thai urea market, sources said, offering favorable terms that help the company hold on to a large portion of the market.

Urea imports to Thailand firmed 37% in January-September, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 2.1 million mt from 1.5 million mt in the same period of 2022. Saudi Arabia sent 883,000 mt, followed by Malaysia with 431,000 mt.

July-September imports were 866,000 mt, a 48% increase from the 584,000 mt imported in third-quarter 2022. September imports of 269,000 mt rose significantly from 79,000 mt in the prior September. Saudi Arabia accounted for about one-third of the month’s imports, shipping 99,000 mt.

Indonesia:     

Pupuk has arranged for additional sales of prilled urea following the deals cut last week. Aditya Birla picked up 45,000 mt of prilled urea in addition to the two granular cargoes secured last week, sources said. All three lots are expected to be used to cover awards from IPL in India.

Samsung last week secured a prilled cargo of 42,000 mt that was also expected to go to India. The Japanese trading house was able to buy one more 40,000-45,000 mt cargo this week that will reportedly be used for sales into Southeast Asia, sources said.

The granular urea price remained at $381/mt FOB, while prilled urea was pegged at $379.50/mt FOB.

Middle East: 

Seemingly focused on fulfilling orders related to the IPL tender during the week, Middle East suppliers are telling potential buyers the price is now $400/mt FOB. Buyers are not yet willing to rise to that level, however, leaving prices unchanged from the mid-$380s/mt FOB set through the IPL/Indian tender.

Some traders expressed concerns about possible complications in their orders arising from the Israel-Hamas conflict. One trader described the concerns as mild, however, citing a lack of concrete statements or actions to escalate the worries so far.

Iranian producers have been hard-pressed to raise prices, and a tender last week was scrapped after the price failed to reach the $350/mt FOB target set by producers. Producers held to their $350/mt FOB price this week, while buyers refused to go above $340/mt FOB.

The week opened with producers receiving a notice from the Egyptian government alerting them to a 30% reduction in their natural gas supplies. By the end of the week, however, producers had not heard anything further on the matter.

Producers and traders said no notice had been issued as to when the cutback will occur, nor how long it may be in effect. International traders who have depended on Egyptian material described the lack of clarity as disconcerting.

At least one producer will reportedly not have a problem handling the cutback when – and if – it comes. MOPCO was planning to shut a plant for a routine turnaround in November, sources said. The closure should allow MOPCO to continue operating as scheduled, even if the gas supply is reduced.

The cutback notice prompted concerns that Egyptian material might become scarce in November and December, and prices quickly jumped to $410/mt FOB in a series of sales. MOPCO and Alexfert each sold lots of 5,000 mt for November shipment to Europe, while a larger deal was reportedly done into Turkey at a slight discount. Players reported a 40,000-50,000 mt sale into Turkey priced just under $400/mt FOB.

The successful conclusion of deals at $410/mt FOB prompted producers to begin asking for $420/mt FOB.

China:

Sources reported prilled urea sales of 8,000-10,000 mt priced in the upper-$360s/mt FOB. At the same time, sources said the domestic price for prilled product is now showing an export-equivalent in the low-$360s/mt FOB.

These levels represent a significant drop from the price earned under the IPL/India tender. Producers, clearly hoping to reclaim the higher price, were said to offer product at $380/mt FOB, but without success.

The hope by traders that China’s export inspection process might be eased or streamlined appears to be dashed. There is no evidence of any special treatment being given to urea producers or traders who want to move product offshore to India, sources said.

Expectations are growing that more urea from China will be available than previously expected. Sources are now speculating that up to six cargoes could be available soon, with the expectation that up to nine cargoes could ultimately be cleared for export by the tender’s Dec. 20 shipping deadline.

Even as some buyers look for large cargoes to export to India and other major buyers, traders handling smaller lots have continued to secure 5,000-10,000 mt lots for regional buyers, sources said.

The export of granular urea is less common than prilled product. A sale into the Philippines reportedly showed a netback in the mid-$380s/mt FOB, keeping granular pricing unmoved from the level earned in the IPL tender.

Ethiopia:       

A new tender announced by Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corp. (EABC) will close on Nov. 14. EABC is asking for 562,000 mt to be delivered evenly through mid-2024, while calling for offers in 50,000 mt lots. In the past, EABC has received 2-3 shipments per month.

Turkey:         

Trade Data Monitor put January-September urea imports in Turkey at 2.6 million mt, a 59% increase from the 1.6 million mt received in January-September 2022. Oman led suppliers with 1.2 million mt, while Egypt added 662,000 mt.

Third-quarter 2023 imports were pegged at 638,000 mt, up slightly from the 628,000 mt recorded one year earlier. September imports were 200,000 mt, lifting from 154,000 mt in September 2022. Oman sent 81,000 mt for the month, followed by 70,000 mt from Venezuela.

Brazil:

Brazil urea prices pulled back to $385-$400/mt CFR from last week’s $395-$410/mt CFR, while bids at $375-$380/mt CFR reportedly failed to attract sellers. November import lineups show 1.3 million mt en route to Brazil, an estimated 30-40% of which is currently unsold.

With no activity reported in the market, Rondonópolis urea prices were stable at last week’s $540-$550/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Drought is compromising soybean planting in the region, potentially delaying the harvest and threatening to delay planting for the corn safrinha.

Farmers are delaying purchases as they evaluate the planting risks of corn, especially considering urea’s current unfavorable barter ratios. Amid costly inputs and risky yields, it remains possible that farmers will plant fewer acres, reduce nutrient application, or switch crops.

Argentina:    

January-September urea imports fell 29% year-over-year, according to Trader Data Monitor, to 516,000 mt from 723,000 mt. Imports slipped to 344,000 mt in the third quarter, down from the year-ago 406,000 mt, while September imports of 62,000 mt were off from the 184,000 mt delivered in September 2022. Egypt supplied 90% of the month’s imports, sending 56,000 mt.

UAN

Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA UAN pricing remained at last week’s $255-$265/st ($7.97-$8.28/unit) FOB range, with no new business reported during the week.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was pegged at $290-$310/st ($9.06-$9.69/unit) FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for November-December tons. The latest UAN-28 offers FOB Cincinnati were reported at $260-$270/st ($9.29-$9.64/unit) for November-December, $263-$272/st ($9.39-$9.71/unit) for 1Q, and $275-$280/st ($9.82-$10.00/unit) for 2Q shipment.

UAN-32 on a rail-DEL basis was quoted at $310-$315/st ($9.69-$9.84/unit) in Indiana and Ohio and $315-$320/st ($9.69-$10.00/unit) in Michigan.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 remained at $295-$320/st ($9.22-$10.00/unit) FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location. The St. Louis market was reported at the $300-$310/st ($9.38-$9.69/unit) FOB level during the week.

Southern Plains:

The UAN-32 market firmed to $275-$305/st ($8.59-$9.53/unit) FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low confirmed out of Gulf Coast terminals in Texas. Pricing at production points in Oklahoma and Kansas ranged from $280-$305/st ($8.75-$9.53/unit) FOB, depending on location.

South Central:

The UAN-32 market was reported at $275-$290/st ($8.59-$9.06/unit) FOB South Central terminals, with the low confirmed in Louisiana and the high in Kentucky for December shipments.

Southeast:

The UAN-32 market remained at $260-$270/st ($8.13-$8.44/unit) FOB port terminals in the Southeast, depending on location, with the high confirmed at Wilmington, N.C.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Market Watch, South Central, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium nitrate market was steady at $330-$360/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.

Southern Plains:

Ammonium nitrate remained at $330-$360/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low confirmed at Muskogee, Okla.

South Central:

The ammonium nitrate market firmed slightly to $295/st FOB Yazoo City, Miss., for prompt trucks, up $15/st from last report. Pricing out of upriver terminals in the region was quoted at the $345/st FOB level in early November.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Thailand, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

No new NOLA barge business was confirmed for ammonium sulfate, leaving the market at the last-reported $270-$275/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt remained at $310-$345/st FOB, with the low confirmed at river terminals in Illinois and the high at inland warehouses. The Cincinnati market continued to range broadly at $315-$335/st FOB in early November.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market widened to $300-$345/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high in western Iowa. The last offers FOB Caruthersville were pegged at the $315/st level in early November.

Southern Plains:

Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $300-$325/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low reported at Houston and the high at Catoosa/Inola.

South Central:

The ammonium sulfate market remained in a broad range at $250-$320/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low confirmed in southern Mississippi and the high in Arkansas.

Southeast:

Ammonium sulfate pricing FOB Hopewell, Va., remained at $320/st for granular, $290/st for mid-grade, and $270/st for standard, while rail-DEL pricing in Florida was pegged at the $340/st level for granular and $250-$260/st for standard.

China:

Sources reported conflicting information about the ammonium sulfate market. Reports circulated that Pakistan bought 10,000 mt of caprolactam grade amsul, along with larger quantities of phosphate, at a price netting back in the mid-$160s/mt FOB China, fitting with where sources had called the market earlier in the week.

By midweek, however, sources began reporting prices in the upper-$150s/mt FOB. Adding to the downward pressure, the week’s ex-plant price indicated an export level in the low-$150s/mt FOB, traders said.

In the end, the market softened to $155-$165/mt FOB, with producers decrying the drop and buyers pushing for even lower prices.

Turkey:         

Ammonium sulfate imports to Turkey totaled 612,000 mt in January-September, Trade Data Monitor reported, a decline of 18% from the year-ago 748,000 mt. Third-quarter purchases were 31,000 mt, down from the 54,000 mt received in July-September 2022, while September deliveries of 20 mt were off from 16,000 mt received in the prior September.

Thailand:      

Trade Data Monitor reported January-September ammonium sulfate imports at 230,000 mt, down 30% from the 331,000 mt noted one year earlier. Third-quarter imports were unchanged year-over-year at 116,000 mt, while the 48,000 mt received in September was higher than the 31,000 mt noted in September 2022.

Brazil:

Brazil ammonium sulfate transactions declined $5/mt to $210-$220/mt CFR, while bidding was reported around $195-$200/mt CFR during the week. The Rondonópolis market narrowed to $345-$350/mt ex-warehouse from the week-ago $325-$360/mt FOB.

DAP/MAP

Argentina, Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP prices firmed to $530-560/st FOB, rising from a flat $530/st FOB last week. MAP trucks maintained their $100/st premium to DAP, lifting to $630-$660/st FOB.

North Florida MAP postings were steady at $625/st FOB, sources said.

US Gulf:

Facing uncertain delivery times and unusually long transit periods due to ongoing low-water conditions on the Eastern River System, sources reported low demand for prompt phosphate barges loading from NOLA.

NOLA DAP barges were priced at $520-$540/st FOB during the week, off from the prior $523-$550/st FOB range, while river terminal pricing and barges located upriver were reported trading at a $550/st FOB NOLA-equivalent.

MAP barges were unchanged from the week-ago $600-$640/st FOB. Sources reported terminal pricing at a $650/st FOB NOLA-equivalent.

US Exports:

No new business was reported on the US Gulf phosphate export market, leaving prices unchanged at $570/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP slipped to $590-$605/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati market pegged at $600-$605/st FOB for the latest offers. MAP was pegged at $695-$705/st FOB in the region, with the upper end of the range confirmed at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP remained in the $590-$610/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market quoted at the $590-$595/st FOB level. MAP was pegged at $680-$710/st FOB, down from last week’s $690-$720/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at St. Louis.

Southern Plains:

DAP and MAP prices at Catoosa/Inola slipped slightly with the reopening of the Arkansas River to barge traffic. DAP at the port was reported in a broad range at $605-$625/st FOB, compared with last week’s $610-$620/st range, while MAP was quoted down to $705-$725/st FOB from the prior week’s $710-$720/st FOB.

South Central:

DAP prices in the South Central region were pegged at $595-$610/st FOB, with the high confirmed in Arkansas and the low reported by Kentucky sources out of spot Ohio River terminals. The Memphis DAP market was reported at $600-$610/st FOB for the latest offers.

Southeast:

MAP postings from Nutrien remained at $625/st FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla.

China:

The DAP market in China remained steady at $565-$575/mt FOB despite efforts by India to lower prices. Export inspections have continued to operate as usual, sources said, with no preference given to phosphates.

India: 

Reports circulated that a deal was done with YUC at $590/mt CFR, though sources argued the real price was just below that level. Indian buyers have been pushing hard for lower DAP prices and have been successful in inching the price down. For now, sources put the price closer to $585-$588/mt CFR, with buyers continuing to try for lower prices.

Importers are being aggressive in their pricing demands, with some continuing to argue for levels closer to $500/mt CFR. The move for dramatically lower prices comes on the heels of the government cutting subsidies for phosphates under the Nutrient Based Subsidy plan. Sources said the new level sets a maximum price for DAP at $525/mt. The difference in price above that level is not supported by the government treasury.

Brazil:

MAP imports were reported at $555-$560/mt CFR in Brazil, narrowing from the week-ago $550-$565/mt CFR. Citing reports of limited availability until December, some sellers are attempting to push prices to $575-$595/mt CFR in the next round of business.

Rondonópolis followed imports $5/mt higher, to $690-$705/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Limited prompt availability left domestic MAP prices at a historic premium in the region.

Argentina:    

Argentina MAP imports fell slightly in January-September, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 560,000 mt from 605,000 mt in January-September 2022. Third-quarter imports lifted 57% from 2022, however, to 288,000 mt from 183,000 mt.

Morocco sent 56,000 mt to Argentina in September, supplying about 74% of the month’s 76,000 mt import total. Argentina imported 57,000 mt of MAP in September 2022.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barges fell slightly, to $460-$465/st FOB from last week’s $465-$475/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The TSP market was quoted at $525-$540/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for November tons, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP edged up to $520-$535/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high at Caruthersville.

South Central:

TSP firmed to $520-$535/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, up from the prior $505-$525/st FOB range.

Brazil:

Landed TSP prices in Brazil were unchanged week-over-week at $430-$440/mt CFR. The Rondonópolis market was stable at $530-$565/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Phosphoric Acid, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt firmed to $10.90/unit rail-DEL for November, up $0.50/unit from October.

Western Cornbelt:

The phos acid price for November strengthened to $10.90/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt, up from October’s $10.40/unit rail-DEL level.

Southern Plains:

The phos acid market moved up $0.50/unit for November tons in the Southern Plains, to $10.90/unit rail-DEL from October’s $10.40/unit level.

Ammonium Polyphoshate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

10-34-0 pricing strengthened to $495-$505/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the prior $490-$495/st FOB range.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was pegged at $490-$500/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Iowa.

Southern Plains:

Ammonium polyphosphate prices were higher in the Southern Plains, with 10-34-0 firming to $495-$500/st FOB in the region. The 11-37-0 market was quoted at $515-$545/st FOB in Texas.