All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Northern Plains, Pakistan, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA urea market slipped to $345-$355/st FOB for confirmed October-November trades during the week, down from last week’s $353-$365/st FOB range, with the low reported for an open-origin barge transaction at midweek.

Although sources said they expected NOLA business to pick up after the latest India tender results were announced, the market remained relatively quiet during the week, with limited new transactions confirmed.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea continued to drop in the Eastern Cornbelt, with new October-November offers confirmed at $410/st FOB river terminals in the Illinois market. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged at $420-$430/st FOB, with inland warehouses quoted at the $440/st FOB level in Ohio. The latest offers in the Great Lakes region slipped to $445-$455/st FOB and $465/st DEL in Michigan.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices were down slightly in the Western Cornbelt, falling to $410-$440/st FOB from last week’s $420-$450/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo.

Northern Plains:

Urea pricing was quoted at $430-$450/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., unchanged from last week, but down from pre-river close offers in the $445-$475/st FOB range. Delivered urea in the Northern Plains dropped to $480-$510/st, down from $520-$545/st DEL in early October.

Northeast:

Urea remained at $460-$470/st FOB in the Northeast, with the high at Baltimore, Md., and the low reported at Fairless Hills, Pa., for October-November shipment.

Eastern Canada:

The urea market in Eastern Canada firmed to C$710-$745/mt FOB for offers in late October, up from C$695-$725/mt FOB earlier in the month.

India: 

Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) closed its first round of counterbids on Oct. 20, with six companies, in addition to Ameropa as the low-price leader, providing 1.3 million mt. The tons were priced at $400/mt CFR for West Coast deliveries and $404/mt CFR for East Coast shipments. A second round of counterbids closed Oct. 26, with six additional companies providing another 388,000 mt.

All told, IPL is now slated to import about 1.7 million mt with a shipping deadline of Dec. 20. The final take is just under the 1.8 million mt IPL received under its August 2023 tender, and more than any other tender going back to 2020.

Offering Company Tonnage
Awarded 		Expected Source
Ameropa 605,900 Saudi Arabia-Qatar-Oman-Southeast Asia-China-Egypt
Aditya Birla 316,000 Baltic
OQ Trading 120,000 Oman-Baltic
EuroChem 88,000 Baltic-Black Sea-Middle East
FertiStream 50,000  
Midgulf 50,000 Middle East
Medallion 50,000 Middle East
Aries 158,000  
Dreymoor 50,000  
Fertecon 45,000  
Fertiglobe 45,000  
Koch 48,000  
Samsung 42,000  

Sources said IPL needed to buy at least 1.5 million mt to get India’s urea supplies back on track. Going into the tender, traders said the country needed to import 3 million mt by March 2024, the end of its fiscal year. The tender’s success prompted remarks from India that the urea situation in the country is better than expected, while sources reported comments from Indian companies that the current tender may be the last of the fiscal year.

Such talk appeared to be designed to influence the market rather than outline an actual plan of action, many traders said. One source noted that even if demand comes off, the country will still be about 1 million mt short of the urea it needs.

One possible outcome of the tender is that India may not need to issue another purchase call until after the current tender’s Dec. 20 shipping deadline. Even with Brazil expected to return to the market in the last months of the year, the absence of large-scale purchasing from India could help force the price down.

While most major urea-producing markets are likely to contribute tonnage into the IPL tender, the bulk of material is expected to come from the Arab Gulf.

A recent selling tender from Indonesia carried a price that would work for East Coast India deliveries. At the same time, there are reports that 3-4 cargoes from China have all the necessary clearances to be shipped to India in the next few weeks, and sources reported inquiries issued this week for vessels traveling from Egypt to India. Black Sea and Baltic material were also said to be part of the tons offered.

Black Sea:     

Based on estimated netbacks from the Indian urea tender, some Asian traders said the Black Sea price has dropped to $340/mt FOB. Other sources were more generous to sellers, calling the market $340-$350/mt FOB. EuroChem will reportedly include urea from the Black Sea in its 88,000 mt award from IPL.

Indonesia:

An additional export permit was issued this week allowing PT Pupuk Indonesia Holding Co. to offer 45,000 mt of granular urea and 40,000 mt of prilled urea for sale. The tender closed on Oct. 25 at price levels that could allow the tons to be included in awards from IPL in India.

Sources reported the high bid for the granular cargo at $381.50/mt FOB. In subsequent talks, Pupuk reportedly agreed to sell two lots of 45,000 mt to Aditya Birla. The high bid for the prilled urea lot was reported at $379.50/mt FOB, with Samsung reportedly taking the cargo. The prices are down from the $406/mt FOB for granular and $397/mt FOB for prilled urea that Pupuk earned just one month ago.

The tender’s pricing and shipping timelines could allow the cargoes to be shipped to India as part of an IPL award. The Pupuk tender called for November shipment, which fits within the IPL/India shipping schedule, while sources put freight to East Coast India at $20-$22/mt, leaving traders a small margin for profit.

There were reports of at least one vessel already reserved to run from Indonesia to India. However, the ship was most likely booked to receive tons awarded in a previous tender, said one trader.

Middle East: 

Arab Gulf suppliers are expected to provide the bulk of the material in the IPL tender.

Fertiglobe attempted to set a price of $417/mt FOB for Arab Gulf urea with its offer into the IPL tender. However, sources said the West Coast price award of $400/mt CFR puts the Arab Gulf netback closer to the mid-$380s/mt FOB. The only disagreement among traders is whether the range extends all the way to $380/mt FOB or stays closer to $385/mt FOB. The new price is about $35/mt off from the region’s last reported sales.

Business in Egypt perked up this week, with sources reporting large-scale purchases at substantially lower prices. Upwards of 50,000 mt were sold at $385/mt FOB for non-European destinations. Included in the tonnage was a single 30,000 mt reportedly headed to Argentina.

Smaller lots were offered to European buyers at $400-$405/mt FOB in an apparent effort to hold on to the higher prices earned in the past several weeks. Sources said the European buyers caught wind of the larger deals, however, and are now bidding at $385/mt FOB and below.

There were also reports of at least one vessel being sought to travel from Egypt to India as part of the IPL tender awards.

China:

Sources have scaled back on the amount of Chinese urea expected to supply awards in the IPL tender. At the close of the tender, sources estimated that as much as 500,000 mt might be available for export. However, with the awards now ready to be issued, China is now expected to supply no more than 3-4 cargoes for a maximum of 200,000 mt.

The reduced expectations were fueled by reports that up to 200,000 mt have already been cleared for export by customs officials. Inquiries for vessels traveling from China to India have already hit the freight market, according to reports.

With freight from China to India’s East Coast estimated at $20-$30/mt, netbacks to China were expected at $375-$385/mt FOB.

Urea exports from China firmed significantly in January-September, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 2.8 million mt from the year-ago 1.8 million mt. India took 1.1 million mt, while South Korea received 285,000 mt.

China’s focus on shipping small lots of urea to a multitude of countries was evident. The remaining 51% of exports went to 92 countries, with 75 of those countries taking 10,000 mt or less.

Third-quarter exports were reported at 1.8 million mt, up from 849,000 mt in July-September 2022. September exports totaled 1.2 million mt, with India taking 862,000 mt, rising from the 347,000 mt shipped in the prior September.

Pakistan:       

The government of Pakistan has approved imports of 200,000 mt, as an unexpected demand increase and reduced output from domestic producers contributed to a projected shortage of urea for the Rabi season. Sources speculated that most of the tonnage will be secured by Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) under a government-to-government deal, as has been done in the past.

Limited foreign currency reserves in Pakistan will restrict the country’s ability to hold a tender that attracts offers from a wide variety of sources. Previous tenders have seen poor participation, as Pakistan’s complicated payment procedures discourage many of the large trading houses from offering tons.

At the time of the authorization to import urea, the government also directed energy suppliers to provide an uninterrupted supply of natural gas to Pakistan’s domestic fertilizer industry. A disruption of gas supplies and higher costs previously contributed to domestic urea producers being forced to cut back on operations.

Brazil:

Urea prices in Brazil firmed $5-$10/mt, to $395-$410/mt CFR from the week-ago $390-$400/mt CFR, while business reported below $395/mt CFR was attributed to material from sanctioned origins. Market sources expressed concerns over potential demand destruction, noting that some farmers are postponing their purchases.

Rondonópolis prices were steady at $540-$550/mt FOB ex-warehouse as players awaited counterbidding to play out in the Indian tender. Grappling with high input costs, farmers are reportedly exploring options for the upcoming corn season, including planting fewer acres, reducing nutrient application, or switching crops altogether.

UAN

Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The UAN barge market remained at $255-$265/st ($7.97-$8.28/unit) FOB NOLA for the last confirmed business, though sources reported “very few, if any” new trades during the week.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was steady at $295-$310/st ($9.22-$9.69/unit) FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for October-December tons. The latest UAN-28 offers FOB Cincinnati were quoted at $259/st ($9.25/unit) for October-November, $262.50/st ($9.38/unit) for December-January, and $266.80/st ($9.53/unit) for February-March.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was unchanged at $295-$320/st ($9.22-$10.00/unit) FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

The latest UAN-32 offers strengthened to $325-$340/st ($10.16-$10.64/unit) FOB in the Northern Plains for October-January shipment, while UAN-28 pricing in the North Dakota market was pegged at $325-$335/st ($11.61-$11.96/unit) DEL for tons from Canada.

Northeast:

The UAN-32 market eased up to $265-$270/st ($8.28-$8.44/unit) FOB in the Northeast, up from a flat $265/st FOB at last report, with the low confirmed at Baltimore and the high at Fairless Hills for November-December shipment. First-quarter pricing at Fairless was quoted at the $280/st ($8.75/unit) FOB level.

UAN-32 out of terminals in upstate New York remained at the $340/st ($10.63/unit) FOB level in late October.

The latest offers for 28-0-0-5S were pegged at the $277/st level FOB Baltimore.

Eastern Canada:

UAN-28 was quoted in a tight range at C$460-$469/mt (C$16.43-$16.75/unit) FOB in Eastern Canada, up from the prior C$451-$460/mt (C$16.11-$16.43/unit) FOB range. The latest UAN-32 offers were pegged at the C$535/mt (C$16.72/unit) FOB level on a spot basis in Ontario, up from C$515/mt (C$16.09/unit) FOB earlier in the month.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA ammonium sulfate barge market was unchanged at $270-$275/st FOB based on the last indications, with no new business confirmed during the week.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt was quoted at $310-$345/st FOB, up another $10/st from the prior week, with the low confirmed at river terminals in Illinois and the high at inland warehouses. The Cincinnati market ranged broadly at $315-$335/st FOB in late October, while pricing at Ottawa, Ill., was reported at $310/st for October-November, $320/st for December-January, and $330/st for February-March.

The granular ammonium sulfate market in the Great Lakes region was pegged at a firm $340-$345/st FOB Michigan terminals, up from the prior low of $315/st FOB, with delivered pricing confirmed at $340-$360/st in the state, depending on time of shipment.

Western Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing firmed to $310-$345/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high in western Iowa.

Northern Plains:

The granular ammonium sulfate market in the Northern Plains reportedly edged up to $330-$345/st FOB and $320-$345/st rail-DEL for new sales.

Northeast:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing in the Northeast strengthened to $340/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, and $337-$350/st DEL, up roughly $15/st from early October.

Eastern Canada:

Ammonium sulfate prices in Eastern Canada firmed to C$545-$555/mt FOB, up from the prior C$530-$545/mt FOB range.

China:

Even with slow sales, producers continue to push for caprolactam grade amsul pricing at $170/mt FOB. Unfortunately for them, the market has continued to confirm pricing in the upper-$160s/mt FOB. A recent 8,000 mt amsul sale into the Philippines showed a netback just above $165/mt FOB, while other buyers in the area are convinced the price should slip further.

Trade Data Monitor put January-September amsul exports at 9.8 million mt, a 12% increase from the 8.8 million mt exported through the first nine months of 2022.

Third-quarter sales were steady year-over-year at 4 million mt, while September exports dipped to 1.4 million mt from the year-ago 1.8 million mt. Brazil remained China’s largest buyer with 833,000 mt, taking roughly 60% of the month’s exports.

Brazil:

Brazil ammonium sulfate prices remained stable at $210-$220/mt CFR, with bidding in the $195-$205/mt CFR range reportedly failing to transact. Players described a growing concern that delayed purchasing decisions could result in December product shipments arriving too late for the current application period.

Prices in Rondonópolis slipped to $325-$360/mt FOB ex-warehouse on forward supply concerns. Suppliers are anticipating delays in the arrival of Chinese cargoes in the first quarter of 2024, potentially impacting the availability of nitrogen for the corn safrinha season.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

DAP prices in Central Florida were stable at $530/st FOB, while MAP trucks were reported at $630/st. MAP trucks loading from North Florida held firm at $625/st FOB.

US Gulf:

NOLA DAP barges widened to $523-$550/st FOB from last week’s $525-$540/st FOB range. Prompt loadings set the top of the range, matching prices for upriver trades reported at $550/st FOB. MAP barges changed hands at $600-$640/st FOB, a slight increase from the previous week’s $600-$635/st FOB.

Low river levels left buyers reluctant to commit to prompt shipments, sources said, impacting demand. The Arkansas River, closed since mid-October, was forecast to reopen soon.

US Exports:

With nothing new reported on the DAP and MAP export markets, pricing remained at $570/mt FOB for the most recent business.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP and MAP prices remained strong ahead of the fall application season, with DAP quoted at a firm $600/st FOB in Illinois and $605/st FOB Cincinnati for October-November tons. The latest MAP offers were pegged at $695/st FOB Ottawa and $715/st FOB Cincinnati.

DAP and MAP pricing in Michigan included $615/st FOB and $645/st DEL for DAP, and $715/st FOB and $755/st DEL for MAP.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing remained in the $590-$610/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt. MAP was reported at $690-$720/st FOB, depending on location, with the high confirmed in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

DAP pricing at St. Paul was quoted at a solid $600/st FOB in late October, with MAP reported at the $685/st FOB level at that location.

Northeast:

DAP and MAP in the Northeast were up slightly, with the East Liverpool market firming to $615/st FOB for DAP and $725/st FOB for MAP, up from the previous $605/st and $710/st levels, respectively. No MAP was reportedly available at Fairless Hills until February.

“Good demand has pushed prices higher,” reported one regional contact. “Barge transits are very slow and outages are very common right now.”

Eastern Canada:

MAP pricing jumped to C$905-$985/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up from C$880-$915/mt FOB at last report. DAP was quoted at C$910/mt FOB Montreal during the week, up sharply from the C$825/mt FOB level reported in early October.

China:

The DAP price at China softened to $565-$570/mt FOB based on recent business into India, sources said. At the same time, the netback from a sale into Pakistan showed higher pricing. Due to the large and steady amounts of DAP purchased by India, however, sources gave more weight to the netback from the Indian deal.

Earlier reports that China’s central government would authorize the sale of 1 million mt of DAP are only partially correct, sources said. While the government will allow 1 million mt of DAP, MAP, and TSP to be exported during the last months of the year, 800,000 mt of DAP and MAP have already reportedly cleared the customs inspection process and have been picked up by traders for specific buyers, leaving just 200,000 mt for additional sales.

January-September DAP exports from China firmed 38% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 3.6 million mt from the year-ago 2.6 million mt. India took 2.1 million mt, for 60% of the exports.

Third-quarter exports were reported at 1.2 million mt, down from 1.3 million mt in July-September 2022. September exports of 362,000 mt were off 23% from the 469,000 mt shipped in September 2022.

MAP totaled 1.5 million mt in January-September, unchanged from January-September 2022. Third-quarter exports were 609,000 mt, rising 5% from the year-ago 581,000 mt. China exported 87,000 mt in September, off from the 243,000 mt shipped in September 2022.

India: 

Buyers have succeeded in slowly pushing down the price of landed DAP, sources said, with the latest deals reported at $585-$590/mt CFR. Buyers are expected to push for further discounts into the new year.

Recent reports described the Indian government as looking to reduce the amount paid for phosphate subsidies. The new basis price for the Nutrient Based Subsidy program will be $475/mt CFR, sources said this week.

Brazil:

MAP prices in Brazil edged up to $550-$565/mt CFR, with Russian tonnage setting the low end of the range. Few transactions were reported concluding during the week, however.

Market liquidity remained elusive at Rondonópolis, as delayed shipments and low availability have driven prices above typical levels. Most offers were pegged at $685-$700/mt FOB ex-warehouse, unchanged from the prior report.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barges were priced at $465-$475/st FOB, rising from $460-$470/st FOB at last report.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP was unchanged at $535/st FOB Cincinnati and Ottawa for October offers, with November pricing pegged at $535-$550/st FOB Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP was steady at $500-$520/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high at Caruthersville.

Brazil:

TSP prices continued at $430-$440/mt CFR Brazil, steady from last week. While discussions were rumored at sub-$430/mt CFR levels, no transactions were confirmed. Rondonópolis prices firmed to $530-$565/mt FOB ex-warehouse, players said.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:

With the SSP application season now over at Brazil, imports softened to $190-$215/mt CFR during the week, off from the prior $190-$220/mt CFR range. Rondonópolis pricing climbed to $340-$360/mt FOB ex-warehouse, however, rising from the previous $315/mt FOB low.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt remained at $10.40/unit rail-DEL for October shipments, with no word yet on November pricing.

Western Cornbelt:

The phos acid price for October was unchanged at $10.40/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt.

Northern Plains:

Phos acid remained at $10.40/unit rail-DEL level for October shipments in the Northern Plains.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was steady at $490-$495/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt in late October.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was pegged at $485-$490/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

The 10-34-0 market strengthened to $510/st FOB in the Northern Plains for October-November shipments, up $10/st from last report.

Northeast:

The 10-34-0 market remained at $530/st FOB in New York in late October. The last 11-37-0 offers were confirmed at $585/st FOB Baltimore.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Potash Muriate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

No new potash barge business was reported during the week, leaving the market at the previous $345-$350/st FOB NOLA range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash prices reportedly strengthened to $400-$410/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, following Nutrien’s decision on Oct. 20 to raise its Midwest reference price to $420/st FOB. Sources pegged the Cincinnati potash market firmly at the $405/st FOB level in late October.

Recent potash offers in the Great Lakes region included $410/st FOB and $440/st DEL in Michigan, up from the prior $400-$408/st FOB range.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash firmed to $390-$405/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from last week’s $385-$400/st range, with the St. Louis market quoted at $390-$400/st FOB.

Northern Plains:

Potash was unchanged at $390-$400/st FOB St. Paul, with delivered tons reported in the same range for 4Q shipment. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines remained at $350-$357/st FOB, depending on grade.

Northeast:

Potash prices firmed to $370/st FOB Fairless Hills and as high as $420/st FOB East Liverpool for October-November shipment. Delivered potash was pegged at the $386/st level in central Pennsylvania in late October.

Eastern Canada:

The potash market in Eastern Canada firmed to a solid C$615/mt FOB regional warehouses in late October, up from the prior C$585-$590/mt FOB range.

China:

January-September potash imports moved up 31% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 8.2 million mt from 6.2 million mt in the same period of 2022. Third-quarter imports lifted 38%, to 2.9 million mt from the year-ago 2.1 million mt. September imports of 1.1 million mt were up 63% from the 650,000 mt shipped in September 2022.

Brazil:

Brazil potash imports increased to $330-$355/mt CFR, up from the prior week’s $330-$350/mt CFR range. Market players reported limited demand for prompt deliveries.

In Rondonópolis, low-end offers dipped to $460/mt ex-warehouse as sellers attempted to stimulate new negotiations, while Canadian tons were noted up to $485/mt ex-warehouse. Farmers are reportedly delaying both potash and nitrogen purchases for the corn safrinha season.