US Gulf:
The NOLA urea
market was trending higher, with sources blaming low Mississippi River levels
and concerns about a condensed fall shipping window for the bump. Loaded August
barges reportedly traded as high as $370-$376/st FOB during the week, with
September business quoted in the $340-$353/st FOB range.
The new NOLA
business was up from last week’s $335-$360/st FOB range. Reports of deals concluded
late last week in the low-$330s/st went unconfirmed.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea prices in the
Eastern Cornbelt firmed slightly to $415-$450/st FOB in late August, with the
high confirmed on a spot basis in the Illinois market. Pricing at Cincinnati,
Ohio, was pegged in the $415-$425/st FOB range during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea
pricing was steady at $410-$430/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the lower
end of the range confirmed at St. Louis, Mo.
Southern Plains:
Urea
in the Southern Plains was quoted at $420-$440/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla.,
with tight inventories reported. The Houston, Texas, market was pegged at the
$425/st FOB level, down $25/st from early August.
South Central:
The urea market slipped
to $390-$435/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low confirmed by
Kentucky sources out of spot Ohio River terminals and the high at Little Rock,
Ark. The Convent, La., urea market dropped to $400/st FOB in late August, down
$10/st from last report, with pricing at Memphis, Tenn., quoted in the
$425-$430/st FOB range.
Southeast:
Urea
prices were down in the Southeast, falling to $430-$440/st FOB port terminals
from the prior $450-$470/st FOB range.
Black
Sea:
Black
Sea prilled urea softened to a flat $320/mt FOB, off $5-$15/mt from the
previous week. The move was in line with declines reported in other
international spot markets.
India:
Sources
reported no new information regarding vessel nominations related to the Indian
Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender. New bookings will most likely come after the 12 ships
already identified begin their loading processes, sources said.
Initial
concerns have apparently dissipated that the loading of 1.1 million mt of
China-sourced award tonnage might not meet the Sept. 26 shipping deadline.
Favorable weather conditions at Chinese ports could allow for more rapid
loading operations than previously expected, players said.
Indonesia:
Pupuk
Indonesia Holding Co. closed another selling tender this week, with prices
coming off from the previous tender. Ameropa came in with a $367/mt FOB low bid
for 30,000-45,000 mt of granular urea, sources said. The low bid for 15,000 mt
of prilled material was quoted at $363/mt FOB.
Before
the tender closed, sources reported a 10,000-15,000 mt sale at the market’s
earlier $392/mt FOB price. This sale, as well as the granular deal in the
latest tender, are reportedly bound for Australia. The prilled urea in this
latest sale was said to be for shipment to the Philippines.
Middle
East:
Producers
remained quiet this week as they worked to fulfil long-term contracts and
orders related to the IPL/India tender. The lack of any new spot sales leaves
the price in the low-$380s/mt FOB, as set by the IPL tender.
Egyptian
producers have likewise gone silent, apparently content to process shipments of
product secured before the urea market began to soften. The market’s last spot
deal was concluded in July at $467/mt FOB.
China:
Sources
reported the netback from a small sale of prilled urea to Taiwan in the
low-$350s/mt FOB. The purchase, by TFC, appears to be the only new spot sale
out of the area, with most Chinese traders and producers focused on fulfilling
orders received under the IPL/India tender. Sources said the lack of business
outside of the Indian tender is pushing down pricing expectations.
Fears
that the 1.1 million mt expected to ship from China to India might not load
before the Sept. 26 tender deadline appear to have waned. Improved weather
conditions are making it easier for the docks to run full shifts to push
through the tonnage already cleared for export, sources noted.
Of
the 800,000 mt of urea currently at the ports, about 500,000 mt still requires
export approval. Inspectors are reportedly moving quickly. The remaining
tonnage for the Indian orders is expected to arrive at the ports just as the
current product is loaded and gone.
Sources
said they have not heard of any new vessel nominations to take Chinese urea to
India. However, as soon as the first wave of nominated ships begins loading,
said one trader, new nominations are likely to come quickly.
Only
prilled urea is likely to be loaded for exports, sources noted. Granular
product is currently more expensive at China and remains in strong demand from
domestic buyers.
Thailand:
January-July
urea imports totaled 1.4 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported,a
15% increase from the year-ago 1.2 million mt. July imports were recorded at
193,000 mt, down 34% year-over-year from 293,000 mt received in July 2022.
Saudi
Arabia dominated the July market with 84,000 mt, for 44% of the imports. Saudi
producers have a long relationship with Thai buyers, giving them significant
discounts in return for steady purchases. These discounts often leave the
landed price into Thailand lower than the spot FOB price from the Arab Gulf.
Brazil:
Import pricing slipped to
$340-$355/mt CFR, off from last week’s $370-$375/mt CFR. The market remains
largely inactive with only limited trading volumes observed. While negotiations
were reported at the lower end of the range, delayed purchasing from farmers
could push the import season back by a few months, sources said.
Rondonopolis urea prices slid below the $500/mt FOB
threshold to $480-$490/mt FOB ex-warehouse, a decline from last week’s
$500-$520/mt FOB. Despite an interest from sellers to speed up corn safrinha
sales to ensure timely deliveries, softer corn prices and the resulting weaker
barter ratios complicated negotiations for the 2024 season.
Sources noted a lag in safrinha sales compared to the
previous year, with farmers having secured about 55-60% of supplies to date,
below the 80% year-ago average. Some experts believe the market is returning to
its customary pace of purchases, however, as farmers enjoyed more favorable
barter ratios in recent years, allowing for earlier safrinha procurement.
Argentina:
Trade
Data Monitor
noted January-July urea imports at 308,000 mt, off 28% from 427,000 mt recorded
during the same period of 2022. July imports were 135,000 mt, up 24% from
110,000 mt received last July. Egypt took 44,000 mt for the month, followed by
Algeria with 40,000 mt and Oman with 32,000 mt.