All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Mediterranean, Middle East, Pakistan, South Central, South Korea, Southeast, Southeast Asia, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea business was reported at $293-$298/st FOB for loaded barges during the week, with reports of upriver barge trades netting back to the $305/st FOB level at NOLA. Full-May trades were quoted in the $285-$295/st FOB range, with first-half June business at the $282-$290/st FOB level.The market was up slightly from last week’s $280-$297/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea remained at $370-$390/st FOB for prompt tons in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed out of Illinois River terminals and the high at inland warehouses. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged at the $375-$380/st FOB level at mid-month.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices in the Western Cornbelt remained in a broad range at $360-$400/st FOB during the week, with the high reported in Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., market was quoted at $360-$370/st FOB, with Caruthersville, Mo., pricing reported at the $380/st FOB level.

Southern Plains:

The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market was pegged at $380-$395/st FOB for prompt tons at mid-month, with June offers reported down to the $365-$370/st FOB level. In Texas, sources quoted the urea market at $385/st FOB Houston and Borger.

South Central:

Urea prices fell to $335-$390/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, down from last week’s $350-$415/st FOB range, with the low reported at Convent, La., and the high out of river terminals in Arkansas and Kentucky. The Memphis, Tenn., urea market was quoted at the $360/st FOB level during the week.

Southeast:

Urea prices were under pressure in the Southeast, with port terminals dropping to the $400/st FOB level, down from the prior $420-$430/st FOB range, and rail-DEL pricing pegged at $415/st. Urea prices in the Northeast fell to $390/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio.

India: 

There is a now stronger sense in the market that the next urea tender will not be called until late June at the earliest, and possibly not until mid-July. Traders cited India’s current reserves of 10.5 million mt, and noted that by June 1 that amount should hit 11 million mt.

Along with the strong inventory numbers, domestic urea production remains firm. The only thing that might draw Indian buyers into the market sooner is a dramatic market crash, one trader noted. Extremely low urea prices could prompt India to step in and secure tonnage before prices rebound.

Pakistan:       

The government of Pakistan has agreed to continue to supply urea producers with subsidized natural gas in exchange for producers lowering their prices, local media reported. The move occurred after domestic producers raised the price of urea in April, just as an earlier agreement for subsidized natural gas was scheduled to end.

In addition to keeping domestic production going, the government also authorized Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) to import 200,000 mt of urea. Government figures predicted June demand of 800,000 mt against reserves of 170,000 mt and 550,000 mt/m of production capacity. No deadline was set for the imports.

TCP in December 2023 arranged a government-to-government import deal for 200,000 mt with Azerbaijan. Sources expect to see TCP close a similar government-to-government deal instead of calling a public tender.

Black Sea:     

The Black Sea prilled urea price dipped to $240-$245/mt FOB, off $10/mt from the previous week, and reflective of what traders described as a generally weak global urea market.

Mediterranean:

The latest urea offers in Italy were reported at $305-$310/mt CFR, with buyers cautious and hopeful for further price reductions. The latest FCA sales in France reflected roughly $310/mt CFR, with slim buying interest reported for prompt material but robust business for summer deliveries.

The CFR prices reflect sub-$290/mt FOB Egypt offers, and may prove to be untenable given the recent bullish run that took Egyptian prices from $286/mt up to $300/mt FOB or higher at midweek amid improved Argentinian and Australian demand. For now, however, the Mediterranean granular urea price was reported at $305-$310/mt CFR.

No further deals were heard on prills in the region, but the range was brought indicatively lower to $315-$335/mt CFR.

Southeast Asia:

CFR urea sales in Southeast Asia for small 3,000-5,000 mt parcels reflected around $300/mt FOB at the start of the week. By midweek, however, reports of smaller cargos sold at $290/mt FOB emerged ex-Brunei. The regional granular urea range was reported at $290-$306/mt FOB, with the high continuing to reflect the latest Indonesian export tender.

Petronas’ 690,000 mt/y urea plant at Gurun, Malaysia, was reported down due to a technical issue.

Indonesia:     

Prilled urea remains at an unusual premium to granular, with prices holding at $312.50/mt FOB compared to $305-$306/mt FOB for granular.

The prilled price resulted from last week’s quick tender for limited tonnage, which sources speculate was called to facilitate a sale into the Philippines. No new granular tender is expected until at least the first half of June.

Middle East: 

Buyers looking to cover deals into Europe have started buying from Egyptian producers. The week opened with deals for 20,000 mt and 25,000 mt each of granular urea at $286/mt FOB, while 6,000-10,000 mt sales were closed at higher prices as the week progressed. By the close of business on May 16, deals for 6,000 mt and 4,000 mt concluded at $310/mt FOB.

Reports noted early-week sales out of the Arab Gulf at $275/mt FOB, quickly followed by a trade at $280/mt FOB for June shipment. Sources could name neither suppliers nor buyers in the transactions, but expressed confidence that the deals were done.

Traders pointed to steady demand from Australia as one plausible reason for the price increase. At the same time, it is unlikely that Chinese urea will be offered into the global market until late June, sources noted.

While prices did move up from last week’s mid-$260s/mt FOB level, sources said the shift was not significant enough to worry about a possible runaway market. Even with Egyptian prices showing dramatic growth, the lack of equally dynamic increases from the Arab Gulf belies a significant level of lingering softness in the market, players argued.

The week closed with limited activity as buyers and sellers prepared for travel to Singapore for the annual IFA conference. One trader noted that industry players will be using the time in Singapore to assess future moves in face-to-face sessions during the conference.

China:

Chinese urea remains out of consideration for the international market. It is now unlikely that urea will be shipped out before late June, sources said, with some predicting a start in early July.

The export restrictions are expected to continue as long as the domestic price remains high. Even with no exports and strong production numbers actively increasing urea reserves in the country, the domestic price remained flat from the previous week, sources noted.

Urea demand from domestic NPK producers is drawing on reserves, but production easily outstrips their purchases. Some NPK producers are also foregoing urea purchases in favor of ammonium sulfate due to the high price of urea. For now, said one trader, people are keeping an eye on China but not expecting any significant changes for more than a month.

South Korea:

January-April urea imports firmed 19% year-over-year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 354,000 mt from 298,000 mt. Qatar led suppliers with 115,000 mt, Vietnam sent 89,000 mt, and Indonesia shipped 39,000 mt. April imports lifted to 90,000 mt, a notable increase from the 31,000 mt received in April 2023.

Brazil:

Brazil granular urea prices increased $5/mt at the top of the range, firming to $300-$310/mt CFR. With prices increasing steadily during the week in North Africa and the Arab Gulf, sellers unsure of the market’s direction pulled offers into Brazil, while buyers continued to bid at $290-$295/mt CFR.

Purchases for the 2025 second corn crop brought a slight boost to inland fertilizer business, though volumes are down and sales delayed compared to the previous crop. With all attention focused on estimating productivity and profitability, buyers have been reluctant to take a position, leaving the Rondonópolis market unchanged at $450/mt FOB.

UAN

Eastern Cornbelt, France, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

Though no new NOLA UAN business was reported during the week, sources quoted the barge market at $235-$250/st ($7.34-$7.81/unit) FOB based on upriver terminal pricing.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market remained at $270-$290/st ($8.44-$9.06/unit) FOB regional terminals, with the low confirmed out of spot Illinois River terminals and the high at inland locations. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $275/st ($8.59/unit) FOB for UAN-32 and $240.63/st ($8.59/unit) FOB for UAN-28.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market continued at $270-$290/st ($8.44-$9.06/unit) FOB for prompt tons in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. The Port Neal, Iowa, market was quoted at $275-$280/st ($8.59-$8.75/unit) FOB for May and $260/st ($8.13/unit) FOB for June tons.

Southern Plains:

The regional UAN-32 market dropped to $285-$310/st ($8.91-$9.69/unit) FOB in the Southern Plains, with the high confirmed out of Gulf Coast terminals in Texas. Prompt May offers out of Oklahoma production points fell in the $285-$295/st ($8.91-$9.22/unit) FOB range at mid-month, with June pricing reported down to the $255/st ($7.97/unit) FOB level.

South Central:

UAN-32 dropped to $270-$295/st ($8.44-$9.22/unit) FOB terminals in the South Central region for prompt tons, down from $295-$310/st ($9.22-$9.69/unit) FOB, with the low reported by Kentucky sources out of spot Ohio River terminals and the high in Arkansas on a spot basis.

Southeast:

UAN-32 in the Southeast slipped to $280-$291/st ($8.75-$9.09/unit) FOB regional terminals, with rail-DEL offers confirmed at the $295-$305/st ($9.22-$9.53/unit) level on a spot basis in the region. The lower end of the FOB range continued to be reported in Georgia.

France:

UAN buyers at Rouen have fully shifted their attention to the new season, with prices reported at €210-€215/mt FCA.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, France, Market Watch, South Central, Southern Plains, United Kingdom, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium nitrate dropped to $365-$410/st FOB in Missouri, with the low confirmed at Caruthersville, Mo., and the high in northern areas of the state.

Southern Plains:

The latest ammonium nitrate offers remained at $400-$410/st FOB in Oklahoma.

South Central:

The ammonium nitrate market tightened to $340-$370/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low reported at Yazoo City, Miss., and the high at El Dorado and out of spot river terminals in Kentucky.

France:

Ammonium nitrate prices in France slipped to €325/mt CPT following Yara’s May 13 price announcement for June deliveries. Last week, Agrofert (LAT Nitrogen) was reportedly offering at the same €325/mt CPT level.

United Kingdom:

CF UK early in the week was offering bagged ammonium nitrate for June deliveries at £315/mt DEL, down £15/mt from its May price. Reports emerged later in the week that the producer withdrew the offer, but a new price was not confirmed by press time, leaving the market at £315/mt CPT.

Imported product, which lies outside the range, was reportedly available at a £5-£10/mt discount to domestic material.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Indonesia, Market Watch, Northwestern Europe, South Central, South Korea, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA ammonium sulfate barge market remained at $400-$405/st FOB for the latest indications, though no actual business was confirmed during the week.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $415-$435/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Illinois River locations and the high at inland terminals in Ohio. The Cincinnati market was pegged at the $430/st FOB level at mid-month. In the Northeast, the latest granular offers FOB East Liverpool reportedly slipped to the $415/st FOB level.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was unchanged at $405-$430/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high in Iowa and at Caruthersville.

Southern Plains:

Granular ammonium sulfate prices were pegged at a solid $410-$420/st FOB Houston and $440-$465/st FOB Catoosa/Inola in mid-May, up from $400-$440/st FOB at last report.

South Central:

Ammonium sulfate prices were quoted at $415-$440/st FOB in the South Central region, down from $430-$450/st FOB, with the low reported in Kentucky and the high in Arkansas. The Memphis market was pegged at the $430/st FOB level during the week.

Southeast:

The latest ammonium sulfate reference prices at Hopewell, Va., remained at $375/st FOB for granular, $355/st FOB for mid-grade, and $335/st FOB for standard. Other terminal offers for granular tons in the Southeast included $400/st FOB in Alabama and $395/st FOB in Florida, while standard grade was quoted at a low of $300/st FOB in Florida for limited supply.

Northwest Europe:

Standard ammonium sulfate prices in Northwest Europe moved down amid muted buyer interest, with producers lowering offers to €130-€150/mt FOB, or $140-$160/mt FOB at midweek exchange rates. Indications for the new season were heard some $15/mt lower but could not be confirmed.

Granular ammonium sulfate was reported at €180-€185/mt FOB, or $195-$200/mt FOB.

China:

Instead of urea, domestic NPK producers are taking increasing amounts of ammonium sulfate for their production needs. At the same time, some plants are beginning routine maintenance turnarounds, and the price impact is being felt. Sources reported caprolactam grade amsul prices at $122-$127/mt FOB, with most deals pushing toward the upper end of the range.

More plants are expected to take turnarounds in June, leaving a gap in available tonnage, and reports indicate that some suppliers have already sold out well into June. Should the trend continue, nothing will be available next week below $125/mt FOB, one trader said.

Indonesia:     

Pupuk Holdings called a tender for 35,000 mt of amsul to be delivered in three lots, set to close on May 20. One lot of 20,000 mt is slated for delivery to the port of Gresik, 5,000 mt should be delivered to Palembang, and the remaining 10,000 mt is for delivery to Jakarta.

South Korea:

While South Korea is typically a reliable supplier of ammonium sulfate to the global market, 2024 is not looking like a strong year for exports from the East Asian country. South Korea has exported just 193 mt of amsul in January-April, a dramatic drop from the year-ago 47,000 mt. April exports totaled 1 mt, against 220 mt in April 2023 and 17,000 mt in April 2022.

Brazil:

Ammonium sulfate imports lost $5/mt from the top of the range, settling at $160-$165/mt CFR. While most offers were reported at $170/mt CFR during the week, buyers refused purchases at that level.

Despite a strong barter ratio for ammonium sulfate in recent weeks, sales of nitrogen products remain slow compared to recent seasons. Prices lifted $10/mt at Rondonópolis during the week, to $280/mt FOB from $270/mt FOB.

DAP/MAP

Baltic Sea, Benelux, Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Morocco, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida phosphate prices were unchanged from last week, with DAP trucks reported at $580/st FOB and MAP posted at $600/st FOB. North Florida MAP truck postings continued at $630/st FOB.

US Gulf:

NOLA DAP barges traded at $505-$520/st FOB, players said, down from $505-$535/st FOB at last report. MAP barges lifted $5/st at the top of the range, however, to $520-$535/st FOB from last week’s $520-$530/st FOB, with some sellers targeting higher prices for June loading.

US Exports:

With no new spot business reported, the US Gulf DAP and MAP export markets continued at $570/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP pricing was pegged at $620-$660/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low in Illinois and the high in Ohio. The Cincinnati market was quoted at $650-$660/st FOB for DAP. In the Northeast, the latest East Liverpool DAP offers were reported at the $680/st FOB level, while delivered DAP in the Great Lakes region was quoted at $668/st for May tons.

MAP slipped to $665-$685/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati market reported at $670-$685/st FOB during the week. In the Great Lakes region, delivered MAP offers were reported at the $693-$708/st level for May tons.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP slipped to $640-$660/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP pegged at $660-$690/st FOB in the region. The St. Louis market was quoted at $640-$650/st FOB for DAP and $665-$680/st FOB for MAP at mid-month.

Southern Plains:

Phosphate pricing at Catoosa/Inola slumped to $635-$660/st FOB for DAP and $645-$675/st FOB for MAP at mid-month, with June-September offers quoted at $565-$575/st FOB for DAP and $595-$605/st FOB for MAP. Houston prompt pricing was reported at $640/st FOB for DAP and $675/st FOB for MAP during the week.

South Central:

DAP pricing in the South Central region was quoted in a broad range at $635-$670/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the high in Arkansas. Kentucky sources also reported Ohio River terminal pricing at the $635/st FOB level for prompt tons.

Southeast:

The Aurora, N.C., MAP price remained at $650/st FOB, though Nutrien reportedly lowered its MAP posting at White Springs, Fla., to $630/st FOB in early May.

Benelux:

DAP offers into Northwest Europe slipped to €585-€595/mt FCA on reports of continued low demand, pushing the regional range down to $630-$640/mt FCA based on midweek exchange rates.

Morocco:

Moroccan prices for DAP were stable this week, with several sales reported within the wide $495-$600/mt FOB range. Downward pressure is being felt from India, however, where the latest CFR value was reported at $509/mt. Small sales into Europe continue to bring a premium, reflecting the high end of the range, but volumes are seasonally low.

Baltic:

With the downtrend in Indian CFR prices and lower offers reported in Northwest Europe, DAP pricing in the Baltic dropped to $460-$585/mt FOB for both Lithuanian and Russian exporters. Indian netbacks on Russian product reflected the low end, while European netbacks on Lithuanian DAP represented the high end of the range.

MAP prices in the Baltic were flat this week, with Russia suppliers able to hold Brazil at $570/mt CFR despite the increased availability of Chinese product.

China:

An Indian DAP purchase reported at $512/mt CFR translates to a China-equivalent price in the mid- to upper-$490s/mt FOB, sources said. The India deal does not appear to be for Chinese product, however, and sources stressed that no one is currently discussing Chinese deals below $500/mt FOB.

Sources reported bids to Chinese producers in the $490s/mt FOB being summarily rejected. With an estimated breakeven price in the upper-$480s/mt FOB, one trader previously noted that Chinese producers are loathe to allow prices to edge into the $490s/mt, fearing the possibility of a steeper decline.

When the Indian price was in the $590s/mt CFR, Chinese producers were willing to allow for some price reduction. In the end, the move to the $550s/mt CFR and $540s/mt CFR still allowed Chinese producers to enjoy a comfortable margin and move out significant tonnage under the restrictions imposed by the government. Now, said one trader, many of the producers are sitting back while other DAP-producing countries compete for the Indian business at much lower levels.

India: 

Market sources noted a deal into India at $512/mt CFR. While players could not name the source, they were firm that the tonnage did not originate from China. Talks for subsequent business reportedly put the Indian market at $510-$512/mt CFR.

Indian buyers attempting to lean on Chinese producers to match that price have found their entreaties rebuffed. Other suppliers, however, seem willing to discuss business at this level.

Indian buyers will eventually have to step up their purchases, sources said. For now, however, the supply pipeline seems to hold enough material to keep inland distributors and growers happy. The pushback from Chinese producers, who refuse to sell below $500/mt FOB, may act as the support other sellers need to establish a price floor slightly above the market’s current level.

Brazil:

The landed MAP price edged higher, to $555-$570/mt CFR from last week’s $550-$570/mt CFR. Russian material continued at the top of the range, while Chinese tons set the low. NP 11-44 was quoted at $465/mt CFR.

The week brought stability to the Rondonópolis market, with some negotiations rising to $710/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Low-side prices softened to $685/mt FOB due to the stagnant market, however.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barges were reported at $430-$440/st FOB, off $5/st from last week’s $445/st FOB high.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP slipped to $500-$510/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from last week’s $505-$520/st FOB range.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP was steady at $510-$520/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high at Caruthersville.

South Central:

The TSP market remained at $500-$520/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low reported at Memphis and the high in Arkansas.

Brazil:

Brazil TSP pricing softened to $410-$425/mt CFR from last week’s $410-$430/mt CFR, while bids were reported in the $400-$405/mt CFR range. Rondonópolis prices showed a $5/mt increase, however, lifting to $545-$560/mt FOB from the week-ago $540-$555/mt FOB.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:

Landed SSP 19-21 prices were steady at the week-ago $195-$220/mt CFR range, players said. The Rondonópolis market firmed slightly week-over-week, to $320-$355/mt FOB from the prior $310/mt FOB floor. While significant phosphate demand remains in the region, the current low grain prices have complicated the market picture for producers.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was pegged at $565-$575/st FOB for the latest offers in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was unchanged at $550-$575/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the upper end reported in the Iowa market.

Southern Plains:

10-34-0 was quoted at a firm $535/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the 11-37-0 market reported at $555-$580/st FOB in Texas, depending on location.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northwestern Europe, Potash Muriate, South Central, Southeast, Southeast Asia, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA potash market slipped to $295-$305/st FOB for confirmed trades during the week, down from last week’s $300-$305/st FOB range. While there were a few reports of business possibly done at the $290/st FOB mark, actual trades at that level were not confirmed.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash was quoted at $340-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported on the Illinois River. The Cincinnati market was pegged at the $355-$370/st FOB level during the week.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash slipped to $340-$365/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

Southern Plains:

Potash remained at $355-$370/st FOB Catoosa/Inola for prompt truck tons. Potash reference prices from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., were steady at $460/st for 60% white granular and $468/st for 62% white standard.

South Central:

South Central potash pricing remained at $350-$370/st FOB regional warehouses at mid-month.

Southeast:

Potash was pegged at $340-$350/st FOB in the Southeast for limited supply in mid-May. Rail-DEL offers were reported at the $365/st level in the region.

Northwest Europe:

Granular potash in Northwest Europe continued to see limited demand, resulting in stable prices week-over-week. With ample availability and prices on a downtrend globally, the expectation is that European prices will continue on this path. Standard potash was also indicated flat at €320-€335/mt CIF.

Southeast Asia:

Both standard and granular potash prices in Southeast Asia were unchanged at $280-$305/mt CFR and $335-$355/mt CFR, respectively. Some activity was reported on standard product, with several tenders by palm plantations reportedly awarded at the low end of the range.

Demand remains muted elsewhere in the region, however, as market players continue to await confirmation of the Indian contract amid intense chatter on a yet undisclosed settlement. Once the Indian contract is concluded, attention will shift to China, where contract negotiations are also underway.

Brazil:

With significant volumes already negotiated for the soybean season, Brazil potash imports continued at the $300-$310/mt CFR level.

Inland offers were noted at $430-$435/mt FOB Rondonópolis, narrowing from $425-$440/mt FOB last week, with players reporting a slow grain market and limited negations during the week.