All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Investors Ink Agreement for Murmansk Terminal

Belarus, News Briefs

Belarusian investors Arctic Gate Marine Terminal LLC have signed an agreement with the Murmansk Region government on April 22 to construct a terminal for the transshipment of Belarusian cargo, as reported by Interfax and TASS.

The port, which is expected to handle 25-30 million mt/y of cargo, will begin operations in 2028. The new port will allow Belarus a year-round transport corridor for delivering its goods and cargoes to foreign markets, including mineral fertilizers, oil products, and containerized goods.

“For the Murmansk Region, this means new jobs, investments, [and] additional work not only for those who will work at the port but also for those who will build the port,” said Regional Governor Andrey Chibis.

The port construction will be financed by private funds, and in the future the parties plan to use a private public partnership tool, according to company representatives.

Nutrien Fighting Eviction from Australian Port

Australia, News Briefs

Nutrien Ag Solutions is fighting eviction from its Kwinana operations in Western Australia after a Feb. 9 fire destroyed a storage shed and damaged port infrastructure (GM March 1, p. 31; Feb. 16, p. 33), according to an April 26 report in The West Australian.

The newspaper said Nutrien Ag’s relations with the Fremantle Port Authority had soured. More details were not immediately available and Nutrien and Fremantle had not responded to inquiries at press time.

Nutrien Ag Region Director West Andrew Duperouzel said in a Feb. 8 media statement that the incident resulted in significant infrastructure damage that has created several challenges for port users. The fire also engulfed part of a warehouse storing bulk fertilizers and chemicals operated by Nutrien in Kwinana.

Fremantle reported that berth operations recommenced at the Kwinana Bulk Jetty on Feb 14. Fremantle said its structural assessment determined the main damage was to the import system conveyor, associated transfer towers, and a shed leased for the storage of fertilizer.

Ammonia

Ammonia, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Northwestern Europe, South Central, Southern Plains, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

No news was reported regarding the May Tampa ammonia contract, though some industry contacts speculated that a rollover from April’s $475/mt CFR is likely.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia remained at $625-$645/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and supplier. Truck pricing at East Dubuque, Ill., was pegged at $630-$635/st FOB in late April, while the market FOB Lima, Ohio, remained at the $635/st FOB level.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia terminal prices were unchanged at $605-$645/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Iowa and the high in Missouri.

Southern Plains:

Ammonia pricing continued at $580-$615/st FOB production points in the Southern Plains, with the low reported at Pryor, Okla. The latest truck pricing out of Gulf Coast production points remained in the $525-$550/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Beaumont, Texas.

South Central:

Prompt ammonia slipped to $525-$580/st FOB terminals in the South Central region for truck tons, with the low confirmed out of Gulf Coast production points and the high at Cherokee, Ala. While no offers were reported at El Dorado, Ark., sources said truck pricing FOB Midway, Tenn., slipped to the mid-$500s/st FOB for limited tons.

India: 

FACT closed a tender for 8,000 mt of ammonia this week at the low price of $307/mt CFR. Sources largely attributed the price, down from the previous public purchase price of $335/mt CFR, to the shipment’s Iranian origins. The bulk of India’s ammonia imports comes from formula-based contracts. Only the occasional FACT tender or quick purchase from another buyer offers a glimpse into the spot market.

Ammonia imports fell 40% through the first two months of the year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 288,000 mt from 482,000 mt in January-February 2023. Saudi Arabia sent 120,000 mt, Oman added 63,000 mt, and Indonesia shipped 50,000 mt. February imports were pegged at 104,000 mt, down 62% from the 276,000 mt received in February 2023.

Middle East: 

Sources estimated the netback to Iran from the FACT/India tender at $245-$247/mt FOB. Given the usual $25-$30/mt difference between the Arab Gulf and Iranian prices, the Arab Gulf equivalent was estimated in the upper-$270s/mt FOB.

Producers have been focused on covering contracts and are not eager to chase potential spot business, sources said. Supplies are reportedly tight for May, and the market will tighten further following an announcement that Ma’aden will take a maintenance turnaround in April and most of May, one trader noted.

Demand for Arab Gulf material West of Suez has become a questionable issue. Shippers are loathe to utilize the Red Sea/Suez Canal route because of terrorist activities against ships. This forces vessels to go around Africa, adding significant time to the shipping period. Deals that involve this longer route appear to be taking longer to settle as parties consider the higher freight rate.

In addition to the threats in the Red Sea, more ship operators are expressing concerns about passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s seizure of the MSC Aries container vessel has left operators nervous, which in turn is raising the insurance costs for shipping out of the Arab Gulf.

Northwest Europe:

Yara suffered an unexpected shutdown in its German operations, sources reported, easing ammonia demand in the area. At the same time, supply from the Arab Gulf has become stressed by vessels taking the longer route around Africa in lieu of the Suez Canal due to ongoing threats in the Red Sea.

With European natural gas now firmly above the $10/MMBtu threshold and reports of several buyers in the market for offshore tons, some upward momentum is expected for Northwest Europe ammonia by some market participants.

Sources said much will depend on the sentiment derived from the upcoming Tampa settlement between Yara and Mosaic, however, as well as on the evolution of downstream nitrates demand during the new season. For now, the Northwest Europe ammonia price was indicated slightly higher at $460-$470/mt CFR.

China:

First-quarter ammonia imports were 151,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 44% from the 105,000 mt received during the same period of 2023. Indonesia was the main supplier with 88,000 mt, while Malaysia sent 32,000 mt and Saudi Arabia shipped 23,000 mt. March imports were 56,000 mt, up slightly from 50,000 mt in the prior March.

China became a steady exporter of ammonia when prices were up. As prices softened in Southeast Asia, however, Chinese product became too expensive for buyers. This reduced demand was evident in the first-quarter exports. Stepped-up local demand from urea and DAP producers for the domestic market also played a role.

Exports totaled 15,500 mt for the first quarter, an 88% decline from the 126,000 mt shipped through the first three months of 2023. March exports were 1,300 mt, compared to 24,000 mt in March 2023.

Urea

Argentina, Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Mediterranean, Middle East, South Central, Southeast Asia, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea was up from last week, with new barge business reported at $308-$315/st FOB for prompt and full April, $295-$308/st FOB for first-half May, and $288-$295/st FOB for full May. Last week’s range was $300-$311/st FOB for prompt and full April and $287-$290/st FOB for first-half May.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices dropped to $390-$410/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down sharply from last week’s $410-$440/st FOB, with the low confirmed out of spot Ohio River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, and Ottawa, Ill., markets were pegged at $400-$410/st FOB, with pricing at LaSalle, Ill., quoted at the $400/st FOB mark for April-May tons.

In the Great Lakes region, the latest Michigan terminal prices slipped to $438-$450/st FOB for urea, down from last week’s $450-$480/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices in the Western Cornbelt slipped to $380-$400/st FOB, down another $20/st from last week, with the high reported in Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., urea market was pegged at $380-$395/st FOB during the week, down from a high of $410/st FOB last week.

Southern Plains:

Urea prices continued to fall in the Southern Plains. The latest offers were pegged at $390-$420/st FOB, with the upper end reported at Houston, Texas, and Enid, Okla. The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market slipped to a broad $390-$410/st FOB range in late April, down from last week’s $415-$420/st FOB.

South Central:

Urea prices continued to drop in the South Central region, with the latest offers quoted at $370/st FOB Convent, La., $380-$390/st FOB in Kentucky, and $400-$415/st FOB terminals in Arkansas and Tennessee.

Southeast:

Urea pricing in the Southeast slipped to $420-$430/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., Charleston, S.C., and Chesapeake, Va. Rail-DEL offers dropped to a low of $400/st in the region, well below the prior $450/st DEL level.

India: 

Expectations remain that a new urea tender will be called in mid- to late-May. The tender call could even be pushed into June, depending on how prices move. The drop in prices from the Arab Gulf, Indonesia, and Egypt have left buyers hoping the trend will continue after Chinese urea finally hits the market.

As prices are softening in the global market, the Indian government is stepping up its campaign for farmers to use India’s domestically produced Nano Urea. The move to this new product from Indian producers will not only reduce the demand for imported urea, sources said, but will also decrease the amount the government must pay in subsidies for those imported tons.

When the next tender is called, sources expect to see a longer shipping period. Recent tenders have allowed 40 days for shipping instead of the traditional 30 days. One trader said the extra time was instituted to allow for Russian material to be included in the tenders. Russian urea destined into India has originated from Baltic ports since the start of the war in Ukraine. Because of the danger of terrorist actions against ships transiting the Suez Canal and Red Sea, these Russian cargoes are forced to transit around Africa.

India imported 672,000 mt of urea in January-February, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 54% decline from the year-ago 1.4 million mt. Oman shipped 206,000 mt, Russia sent 199,000 mt, and the UAE added 107,000 mt. February imports were reported at 271,000 mt, up significantly from 141,000 mt in February 2023.

Black Sea:     

Prilled urea prices were steady at $245-$260/mt FOB in the Black Sea.

Mediterranean:

Mediterranean granular urea slipped to $315-$330/mt CFR. Imported granular offers in Italy declined to $330/mt CFR, with some small volumes reportedly concluded at or just below this price level. Buyer price ideas have since fallen south of $320/mt CFR, however.

Business concluded in nearby Romania supports the high end of $330/mt CFR, but is considered by some to no longer be repeatable, especially as the country has high stocks.

Egyptian granular indications slipped but no sales were confirmed despite rumors of $290-$295/mt FOB closing, followed by a rebound to $302/mt FOB with MOPCO’s sale of 10,000 mt for May shipment.

Indonesia:     

Pupuk Holdings closed a selling auction for 30,000-45,000 mt of granular urea this week. Sources put the top price at $305-$306/mt FOB for 30,000 mt to be shipped in May, while subsequent talks reportedly nailed down a second 30,000 mt cargo at the same price. The settled price reflected a roughly $50/mt drop from the last recorded deal.

It has been normal practice for Pupuk to secure the sale of an initial lot at a favorable price via auction before opening talks with other potential buyers for additional cargoes. There are rumors that at least two more cargoes of at least 30,000 mt each might be sold as well, sources reported.

Southeast Asia:

Granular urea availability in Southeast Asia appeared to be facing some issues due to a technical problem reported last week at Malaysia’s Sipitang facility, as well as to rumored lower operating rates in Brunei.

However, news of a fresh Indonesian granular export tender, the first since February, emerged late last week and assuaged such concerns. The tender was followed by several back-to-back sales by Pupuk at the same level, shifting the granular market lower in the region.

Prior to the Indonesian tender, the only recent granular price reference was CFR Thai business netting back to around $310/mt FOB, which aligns with this week’s high end. The Southeast Asia granular price was quoted at $305-$310/mt FOB.

Middle East: 

Egyptian producer MOPCO reportedly sold 10,000 mt at $302/mt FOB for May shipment, a roughly $20/mt decline from deals closed late last month.

The cargo was said to be for a European buyer. In addition to the European interest, three cargoes of 52,000 mt each were reportedly offered into the Ethiopian tender for May shipment. The trader handling the product did not have the lowest offer in the tender, however. Should the parties fail to reach a deal on pricing, the tons will have to find a new home in a declining market.

With major producers such as Indonesia and Egypt showing dramatic price drops, Arab Gulf producers came under pressure and eventually capitulated, leaving a wide range of prices in the area.

A number of reports indicated granular urea going for $280-$285/mt FOB, and at least one deal reportedly popped prices above the $300/mt FOB mark. Follow-up deals could not maintain that price level, however. The prices from the just-closed Ethiopian tender showed a netback to the Arab Gulf of $285-$290/mt FOB.

The prices under discussion this week left sources discussing a range of $280-$305/mt FOB, though players expected the price to settle below $300/mt FOB by next week. In an unusual move, a deal for 45,000 mt of prilled urea was concluded at $290/mt FOB. Granular is typically sold at a premium to prilled.

The softer market has left producers unwilling to chase after business. One trader described each bid coming lower than the previous one, and no producer wants to lead the way to ever-lower prices, he said.

China:

More changes to the export process in China left the market trying to figure out how many tons might eventually be allowed for export.

New policy guidelines released to urea producers said the CIQ process will now include an examination of the terms and pricing spelled out in export contracts. Previously, the CIQ process focused only on how many tons were available in reserve and how much material would be allowed to be exported. One of the first changes was to remove all clauses requiring prepayment for potential cargoes.

In the past, prepayments were made as a way to lock in tons, one trader noted, making it difficult for traders to abandon the deal if prices softened. Prepayments also ensured the tons would be sent to an export port on time, however, a benefit to traders. Efforts to cancel sales that involved prepayments meant the producer had to invoke force majeure and deal with the multitude of legal actions that such a declaration entails.

The new guidelines will also essentially ban product swaps, making the destination of the exported urea a part of the approval process. The new guidelines state that changes cannot be made to a product’s destination once the process begins. That means swaps of cargoes will not be allowed, said one trader.

Urea sellers will also have to ensure the remaining export paperwork is completed within 30 days of initiating the CIQ inspection. Sources were unclear if this means the product must be loaded and shipped within those 30 days, or just sent to a bonded warehouse for a timely shipment outside the 30 days.

No material was loaded for shipment following last week’s announced changes in the export process, and no movement is expected next week as well. Most of the country will be closed for a Golden Week holiday celebrating the May 1 International Labor Day.

China’s ban on urea exports was evident in the country’s first-quarter export figures. Urea exports totaled just 26,000 mt through the first three months of the year, down from 526,000 mt in January-March 2023. South Korea, reportedly in need of urea for its antipollution devices, topped the buyer list with 13,000 mt. March exports were noted at 14,000 mt, a major drop from the 241,000 mt shipped in March 2023.

Ethiopia:       

Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corp. (EABC) closed its urea tender on April 25 with eight companies offering material. The tender required offers for three cargoes of 52,000 mt and a 52,444 mt cargo of granular to all ship in May. One additional cargo of 52,000 mt was to be loaded in June.

Offers were accepted on either an FOB or CIF basis. The low price was submitted by Promise International at $316-$317/mt CIF, with an estimated netback to the Arab Gulf at $285-$290/mt FOB. Samsung offered three May cargoes from Egypt at an estimated $308/mt FOB netback.

The buyer will reportedly consult with Ethiopian Shipping Lines to determine on what basis they will accept the offers. The vessels are required to unload their product in Djibouti.

Brazil:

Brazil granular urea prices increased $5/mt at the bottom of the range, to $305-$320/mt CFR from the week-ago $300-$320/mt CFR, while product from sanctioned origins traded at $290/mt CFR. Market players see the market as stabilizing, and limited transactions concluded during the week.

The inland market reflected a $5/mt drop, with few transactions confirmed at $455-$475/mt FOB Rondonópolis. Most buyers remain unwilling to compromise on price, sources said, and limited corn safrinha demand continues in the region. Some sellers have stepped out of the urea market and are not currently offering product.

Argentina:    

January-March urea imports in Argentina totaled 202,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, rising from the 29,000 mt received in first-quarter 2023. Nigeria shipped 86,000 mt and Algeria sent 42,000 mt. March imports were 42,000 mt, above the year-ago 16,000 mt, with more than half of the tonnage coming from Turkmenistan.

UAN

Eastern Cornbelt, France, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

New NOLA UAN indications were reported at $265-$275/st ($8.28-$8.59/unit) FOB based on the latest offers. The range is down slightly from last week’s $270-$280/st ($8.44-$8.75/unit) FOB, though no actual business was confirmed at the lower levels.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was steady at $305-$320/st ($9.53-$10.00/unit) FOB for prompt tons in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed out of spot Illinois River locations. The Cincinnati and Mount Vernon, Ind., markets remained at $310-$320/st ($9.69-$10.00/unit) FOB, with UAN-28 offers quoted at $271-$276/st ($9.69-$9.86/unit) FOB Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was unchanged at $310-$325/st ($9.69-$10.16/unit) FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment. The St. Louis market was pegged at $315-$320/st ($9.84-$10.00/unit) FOB in late April. “Customers are working inventory down before buying, which has been the general line for the past month,” said one regional contact.

Southern Plains:

The regional UAN-32 market was steady at the $310-$320/st ($9.69-$10.00/unit) FOB level for limited prompt tons in the Southern Plains. “The UAN market has been very quiet the last couple weeks, with not much buying,” said one contact.

South Central:

UAN-32 remained at $310-$320/st ($9.69-$10.00/unit) FOB terminals in the South Central region for limited prompt tons, with the low reported at Cherokee.

Southeast:

UAN-32 prices in the Southeast were pegged at $280-$300/st ($8.75-$9.38/unit) FOB in late April, with the low confirmed in Georgia and the high at port terminals in the Carolinas and Virginia.

France:

Prompt UAN-30 prices at Rouen slipped to €230-€240/mt FCA, with participants noting very limited interest in spot volumes. New season buyer interest is said to not exceed €210/mt FCA, with buyers spooked by falling urea levels.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, France, Market Watch, South Central, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium nitrate pricing was unchanged at $415-$430/st FOB terminals in Missouri.

Southern Plains:

The latest ammonium nitrate offers firmed to $400-$410/st FOB in Oklahoma, with the upper end of the range reported at Muskogee.

South Central:

The ammonium nitrate market slipped to $340-$380/st FOB in the South Central region, down from the prior $360-$380/st FOB range, with the low reported at Yazoo City, Miss. Pricing out of spot river terminals in Kentucky was pegged at the $370/st FOB level in late April.

France:

The French ammonium nitrate market was stagnant, with no new business heard and prices unchanged. In addition, the downturn in urea is starting to weigh heavily on nitrates, particularly as restocking needs are slim-to-none. Yara has reportedly restarted production at Ambes following a six-week planned turnaround.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northwestern Europe, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA ammonium sulfate barge business was reported at the $400/st FOB level for confirmed trades of imported tons this week, up from last week’s $385-$400/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate prices inched up to $425-$450/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, above last week’s $410-$440/st FOB range, with the low confirmed out of spot Illinois River terminals and the high in Ohio. The Cincinnati market reportedly firmed to $440-$450/st FOB for the latest offers, up from $415-$420/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market strengthened to $420-$440/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up $10-$20/st from last week, with the St. Louis market quoted at the $430-$440/st FOB level.

Southern Plains:

Granular ammonium sulfate prices were pegged at a solid $400/st FOB Houston and $440/st FOB Catoosa/Inola in late April.

South Central:

Ammonium sulfate prices strengthened to $430-$450/st FOB for limited tons in the South Central region, up from the prior $400-$440/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the high out of Ohio River terminals in Kentucky.

Southeast:

The latest ammonium sulfate reference prices at Hopewell, Va., were up $25/st, to $375/st FOB for granular, $355/st FOB for mid-grade, and $335/st FOB for standard. Other terminal offers for granular tons in the Southeast included $400/st FOB in Alabama and $380/st FOB in Florida.

Northwest Europe:

The sharp appreciation of the US dollar against the euro saw standard ammonium sulfate prices decline nominally to $155-$165/mt CFR in Northwest Europe. Product availability has also improved following previous reports of lower caprolactam operating rates and high sulfur prices.

Both buyers and sellers continue to eye broader nitrogen pricing, including ammonium sulfate prices in China and Brazil, as they attempt to anticipate further price direction.

China:

Ammonium sulfate prices in China moved down slightly, to $120-$125/mt FOB. No major shifts are expected until the second week of May, following the Labor Day Golden Week holiday break.

Regional demand for amsul appears to be the driving force in the market, rather than large buyers such as Brazil. One trader noted that sales into the Asian markets are easy to handle with small vessels, while sales to Brazil, for example, often require the amsul to share cargo space with another product such as MAP or urea.

With few urea and phosphate exports occurring from China so far this year, securing the necessary vessels for large buyers has been difficult. Asian buyers are looking at amsul as a cheap and steady alternative to urea for their NPK production, sources said.

Even considering the difficulty of shipping amsul cargoes to Brazil, the South American country remained China’s top amsul buyer, accounting for 18% of exports in the first quarter. The remaining 82% of sales were spread among nearly 60 other countries.

Trade Data Monitor noted first-quarter exports at 3.1 million mt, up 11% from the year-ago 2.8 million mt. Brazil took 553,000 mt, Myanmar bought 371,000 mt, and Vietnam received 313,000 mt. March 2024 exports were counted at 1.3 million mt, up 23% from the 1 million mt shipped in March 2023.

Brazil:

Ammonium sulfate lifted to $165-$170/mt CFR in Brazil, above last week’s $153-$165/mt CFR range. Demand remains strong, with buying spread between immediate demand and shipments in June, July, and August. Some sellers are predicting rising prices in the near-term due to higher freight cost and firmer values out of China.

Rondonópolis prices strengthened again for the week, with negotiations for cotton application reported at $270-$285/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources reported forward offers at $300/mt FOB for corn safrinha delivery.

DAP/MAP

Argentina, Baltic Sea, Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Morocco, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida phosphates prices continued to fall. DAP slipped to $580/st FOB from $600-$630/st FOB, sources said, and MAP softened 8.4%, to $600/st FOB from the prior $655/st FOB. North Florida MAP postings held steady at $650/st FOB, however.

US Gulf:

Phosphate interest shifted from NOLA during the week, sources said, and was focused on upriver barges with limited trades. DAP prices declined to $520-$535/st FOB, falling from $525-$550/st FOB, while MAP barges held their value following last week’s drop to $480-$485/st FOB.

US Exports:

Nothing new was reported on the US Gulf market, leaving DAP and MAP exports flat at $570/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Terminal prices for DAP and MAP were in retreat in the Eastern Cornbelt. The latest DAP offers out of Illinois and Ohio River terminals fell to $640-$675/st FOB, down from last week’s $660-$680/st FOB range, with the low confirmed in Illinois. The Cincinnati DAP market held at the $665-$675/st FOB level in late April.

MAP was quoted at $680-$700/st FOB in the region, with the low again reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. MAP pricing at Cincinnati slipped to the $680-$690/st FOB range, down from last week’s $690-$695/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing dropped to $650-$675/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP pegged at $675-$700/st FOB in the region. The St. Louis market was quoted at $655-$660/st FOB for DAP and $675-$685/st FOB for MAP, down from the prior $670-$680/st FOB and $690-$700/st FOB ranges, respectively.

Southern Plains:

DAP and MAP prices were under pressure in the Southern Plains. Catoosa/Inola offers were reported at $670-$700/st FOB for DAP and $685-$725/st FOB for MAP, reflecting a $10-$30/st decline.

South Central:

DAP pricing in the South Central region was quoted at $645-$665/st FOB, down sharply from the prior $680-$710/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the high in Arkansas. Kentucky sources reported Ohio River terminal pricing at the $665/st FOB level for prompt tons.

Southeast:

Nutrien’s MAP postings at Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla., were unchanged at $650/st FOB in late April. The latest rail-DEL offers in Virginia included $640/st for DAP and $660/st for MAP.

Baltic:

Baltic MAP prices continue to be supported by robust Brazilian MAP values, though sources appear divided as to further price direction and the level of coverage for the upcoming season. For now, MAP prices remained at $515-$525/mt FOB in the Baltic.

Morocco:

With the Moroccan producer resuming sales to Western Europe after several weeks of limited availability, a slight increase at the higher end from European netbacks brought DAP prices up to $510-$600/mt FOB.

Still, with US and Europe largely out the market and lower CFR prices in India, it is expected that Moroccan FOB levels will continue to experience some downward pressure as the second quarter advances and before Brazilian demand kicks off in earnest.

China:

Players have raised concerns that the new restrictions imposed on urea exports may also be applied to phosphate exports. So far, said one trader, there has been no confirmation of such a change, but rumors are circulating.

Despite reports that some DAP was supposedly ready for export, sources have been unable to confirm that any loadings have taken place. The uncertainty of the situation, said one trader, has potential buyers looking to Jordan and Russia for product.

Because no new deals have been reported, the market’s estimated DAP price continues to be based on the latest Indian business. Business from last week showed netbacks at an estimated $528-$530/mt FOB. This week, however, players reported some very quiet talks underway that could potentially drop the price to $500-$510/mt FOB. While no deals were confirmed at those prices, the rumors fit with the Chinese government’s plan to keep prices down.

First-quarter DAP exports illustrated the impact of the government’s export restrictions. China shipped just 142,000 mt in the first quarter, Trade Data Monitor reported, off 78% from the 633,000 mt exported through the first three months of 2023. India led buyers with 44,000 mt, followed by Thailand with 36,000 mt and Japan with 28,000 mt. March exports fell sharply, to 26,000 mt from 263,000 mt in March 2023.

January-March MAP exports totaled 100,000 mt, an 80% decline from the year-ago 534,000 mt. Australia took 56,000 mt, followed by Chile with 12,000 mt. China exported just 356 mt in March – all to India – compared to the 188,000 mt noted one year earlier.

India: 

No new deals were reported, leaving the DAP price at $548/mt CFR. Buyers may be holding off from making purchases to see if the lower prices rumored out of China materialize, one trader said. If the rumors become reality, prices could drop to $515-$530/mt CFR into India. For now, however, India continues to actively seek better deals from Jordan and Russia.

January-February DAP imports fell nearly 70% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 266,000 mt from 853,000 mt. Saudi Arabia supplied 151,000 mt, followed by Morocco with 115,000 mt. February imports were pegged at 222,000 mt, down from the 290,000 mt received in February 2023.

Brazil:

MAP imports slipped to $565-$575/mt CFR, off from last week’s $570-$575/mt CFR range. A strong dollar and buyer expectations of declining phosphate prices are keeping the market muted for now. NP 11-44 was reportedly priced in the $470-$475/mt CFR range during the week.

After several weeks of firm prices, MAP softened at Rondonópolis. New business was reported in the $690-$705/mt FOB range, though demand remains limited for the next soybean season.

Argentina:    

First-quarter MAP imports to Argentina totaled 62,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up 14% from the 54,000 mt received in January-March 2023. Morocco sent 34,000 mt, while China added 24,000 mt. March 2024 imports were reported at 30,000 mt – all from Morocco – against 43,000 mt received in March 2023.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barges were priced at $435-$445/st FOB, down $5/st at the low end of the range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP dropped to a wide $510-$530/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, with both the high and low reported at Cincinnati. Delivered TSP in central Michigan slipped to $558/st for April-May, down $5/st from last report.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP prices dropped to $510-$520/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis.

South Central:

The TSP market fell to $500-$520/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low reported at Memphis and the high in Arkansas.

Brazil:

Landed TSP prices pulled back $5/mt to settle at $410-$420/mt CFR. Market players reported healthy availability from both Morocco and China.

Inland prices increased $5/mt at the top of last week’s range, with business reported at $540-$560/mt FOB Rondonópolis. TSP was the region’s most heavily traded product during the week, players said.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:

SSP 19-21 imports moved lower, to $190-$210/mt CFR from last week’s $195-$215/mt CFR. Reports of limited liquidity in the phosphate markets have prompted concerns that delayed purchasing could force a late start to application.

Rondonópolis negotiations continued in the $305-$340/mt FOB range, with sources reporting strong inland supply.