Western Cornbelt:
The ammonium nitrate market remained at $640-$650/st FOB Missouri terminals for the last reported offers.
Brazil:
Ammonium nitrate imports for January-November were reported at 678,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, off54% from the prior-year 1.5 million mt, the result of Russian export reductions begun earlier this year.
November 2022 imports were reported at 50,000 mt, down dramatically from 122,000 mt in November 2021.
US Gulf:
NOLA barge price ideas spanned a broader range – $345-$365/st FOB versus the week-ago $355/st FOB – with some players saying the recent uptick in urea also boosted AS.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The granular ammonium sulfate market was unchanged at $425-$455/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the upper end confirmed at Cincinnati. Pricing in the Great Lakes region was pegged in a broad $455-$505/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt:
Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was pegged in a broad range at $425-$480/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.
Northern Plains:
Ammonium sulfate pricing in the Northern Plains remained at $400-$420/st DEL for the last reported offers.
Northeast:
Ammonium sulfate pricing in the Northeast fell to $450-$485/st DEL amid competition for 1Q rail-DEL tons, below the last confirmed $510-$545/st DEL range.
Eastern Canada:
Ammonium sulfate fill pricing was unchanged at C$818-$825/mt FOB in the region.
China:
Sources reported stagnant prices in the low $170s/mt FOB. Reports of increased domestic demand were said to cause concern among buyers, although nothing has come of the rumors so far.
Brazil:
The landed price settled squarely at $270/mt CFR. The price showed the removal of lower prices, as reports of stronger domestic demand in China raised concerns among Brazilian buyers about possible issues with future shipments.
Rondonopolis was reported increasing to $390-$420/mt FOB ex-warehouse, showing that inland buyers share the same concerns as importers about possible delays in shipments from China.
January-November imports of ammonium sulfate were reported at 4.3 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, increasing by about one-third from the 3.2 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. China dominated the import slate with 3.9 million mt.
November 2022 imports were reported at 518,000 mt, up 60% from the year-ago 324,000 mt. China supplied 99% of the imported tons with 515,000 mt, with the remaining 3,000 mt sent by the US.
Turkey:
Ammonium sulfate imports for January-October were reported at 790,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, a slight increase from the year-ago 729,000 mt. China supplied 615,000 mt during the period, followed by 100,000 mt from Belgium.
October 2022 imports were counted at 43,000 mt, down 33% from 64,000 mt imported in October 2021.
Central Florida:
Sources noted Central Florida DAP trucks softening to $660/st FOB for the week, below the previous $700/st FOB level. MAP trucks were reported at parity to DAP at $660/st FOB, dropping from $710/st FOB in the prior report.
Truck-loaded MAP loading from North Florida was quoted at $700/st FOB, down from $750/st FOB at last report.
Domestic producers on Dec. 8 concluded the sale of more than 100,000 st of phosphates to a single customer in North America. The transaction, consisting of terminal, rail, and barge tons, was expected to load in a December-January timeframe. Pricing was referenced at a $630-$650/st FOB Central Florida equivalent.
US Gulf:
NOLA DAP and MAP barge prices moved lower for the week, driven by a mix of lower import offers combined with limited seasonal demand.
Imported DAP barge pricing was noted falling to $620/st FOB on Dec. 7, sinking below the week-ago $635/st FOB floor, while players typically indicated domestic tons even with the prior week’s $640/st FOB top.
MAP trades were reported down to $595/st FOB on Dec. 7, below the previous week’s $625/st FOB bottom and falling below the $600/st FOB mark for the first time since the week of May 7, 2021. Traders reported MAP pricing around $620/st FOB prior to the drop. Domestic offers were steady at $640/st FOB, with no trades reported at that level.
Players attributed the market’s falling values to a combination of price indexing on imported vessels currently inbound to NOLA, the seasonal winter shutdown of the upper Mississippi River, and ongoing low-water conditions on the river.
Sources reported the NOLA DAP barge market at $620-$640/st FOB, falling from $635-$640/st FOB in the prior report. MAP barges also softened, to $595-$620/st FOB from the previous $625-$640/st FOB.
US Exports:
Nothing new was heard out of the Gulf export phosphate markets. Recent spot business included a 25,000 mt DAP cargo trading into northern Latin America, with pricing reported at $692/mt FOB and loading slated for December.
Eastern Cornbelt:
New DAP offers were reported at $760-$780/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, below the previous $800-$810/st FOB level, with the Cincinnati market pegged at $760-$770/st FOB. MAP pricing ranged from $725-$775/st FOB in the region, down sharply from the previous $780-$820/st FOB range, with both the high and low end of the range reported at Cincinnati.
There were reports as well of 1Q prepay MAP offers circulating for as low as $685/st FOB out of spot river warehouses, but business at those levels was not confirmed. “There are great differentials in pricing, with the wholesale markets softening and everybody’s not heading down all at the same time,” commented one regional source at midweek.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP was quoted at $750-$790/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from the prior week’s $790-$805/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. MAP pricing fell in a broad $750-$820/st FOB range, with the low at St. Louis and the high reported in the Iowa market on a spot basis.
“You can still achieve higher prices for prompt fall demand in upper areas that are cut off from navigation, but it comes down every day toward forward offers,” said one contact. Rumors were even circulating of some river warehouse MAP fill offers down to $685/st FOB for 1Q.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing was quoted at $770-$790/st FOB St. Paul for the last offers, with MAP at the $800-$820/st FOB level. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota was reported at $792/st for 1Q.
Northeast:
DAP and MAP pricing in the Northeast slipped to $815/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, for both products, down from $830-$850/st in mid-November, with Fairless Hills MAP offers also reported at the $815/st FOB level at midweek.
In the Southeast, MAP pricing from Nutrien slipped to $700/st FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla., down from the $750/st FOB level posted on Nov. 28.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing in Eastern Canada remained in a broad range at C$1,180-$1,280/mt FOB in early December, while the last DAP offers at Montreal were unchanged at the C$1,170/mt FOB level.
China:
Sources said they do not expect to see any DAP exported from China during the first quarter of 2023. The only tons that might move out will be leftover December orders that were late in loading. The Chinese government has previously limited exports of DAP during the first quarter to ensure a plentiful supply for the domestic season. The latest reported move will eliminate all exports for at least the first three months of 2023.
India:
DAP vessels totaling about 360,000 mt were reportedly lined up for unloading through Dec. 18.
Government officials talking to local reporters during the annual Fertilizer Association of India meeting said that DAP supplies in India are plentiful, pointing to a 14% production increase in April-October output compared to the same period in 2021. Imports were also reported up 45% year-over-year for the same time frame.
Brazil:
Prices for MAP remained steady at $600-$630/mt CFR. Sources said that only large-scale buyers are able to secure tons at the lower level. At the same time, sellers keep pushing for higher prices to try to bring Brazil in line with the rest of the global MAP market.
The Rondonopolis price moved up to $770-$805/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The shift upward moves against efforts by buyers to keep the price down in a competitive market.
MAP imports for the January-November period were reported at 3.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, offabout 18% from 4.7 million mt imported in January-November 2021. Russia and Morocco were the market’s main suppliers with 1.6 million mt and 945,000 mt, respectively, followed by Saudi Arabia with 727,000 mt
November 2022 imports stood at 189,000 mt, down from 491,000 mt in November 2021. Russian material accounted for 55% of the imports with 105,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia with 69,000 mt.
Iran:
Agriculture Support Services Co. (ASSC) has issued a tender for the purchase of two 40,000 mt lots of DAP. The tender closes on Dec. 24, and submissions will be opened the following day.
US Gulf:
Sources quoted NOLA TSP barges softening to the $575-$590/st FOB range, down from $590-$600/st FOB at last report.
Eastern Cornbelt:
TSP prices were also falling in the Eastern Cornbelt. New offers FOB Cincinnati were pegged in a broad $680-$740/st FOB range, down significantly from the last confirmed $755-$785/st FOB business.
Western Cornbelt:
The TSP market was pegged at $720-$740/st FOB for prompt tons in the Western Cornbelt.
Eastern Cornbelt:
December phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL, unchanged from November.
Western Cornbelt:
Phos acid pricing was unchanged at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the region for December tons.
Northern Plains:
Phos acid pricing for December shipments remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Northern Plains, unchanged from November.
India:
Contracts for phosphoric acid sold into India were reported at $1,100-$1,200/mt P2O5 CFR for the fourth quarter, a $515-$615/mt decline from $1,715/mt P2O5 CFR in the second and third quarters.
Eastern Cornbelt:
10-34-0 was unchanged at $665-$675/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with pricing out of Michigan warehouses pegged at the $680/st FOB level.
Western Cornbelt:
10-34-0 was quoted at the $655-$675/st FOB level in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa.
Northern Plains:
The last 10-34-0 offers were quoted at $665-$680/st FOB in the region, with delivered pricing pegged in a broad range at $700-$700/st in central and western North Dakota.
Northeast:
10-34-0 prices in New York were quoted at $725/st FOB, up $25/st from last report.
US Gulf:
NOLA potash barge prices continued to drift lower, falling to $490-$500/st FOB from the week-ago $500-$510/st FOB. Buyers were reported to be eyeing $470/st FOB for the next round of business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The potash market slipped to $585-$595/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from the previous $610-$630/st FOB range, with both the high and low confirmed at Cincinnati. Pricing out of Michigan warehouses fell to $615-$620/st FOB for new offers.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash prices slipped to the $585-$610/st FOB range in the region, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. The Iowa terminal market fell in the $595-$610/st FOB range during the week.
Northern Plains:
Sources quoted potash pricing at $590-$610/st FOB St. Paul, down from the previous $610-$620/st FOB level. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines, based on current exchange rates, were reported at $622-$638/st, depending on grade and destination.
Northeast:
New potash offers in the Northeast dropped to $635/st FOB East Liverpool and $640/st FOB Fairless Hills, down from $650-$655/st FOB at last report. Delivered potash in central Pennsylvania was pegged at the $650/st level in early December.
Eastern Canada:
The potash market in Eastern Canada was pegged in a wide range at C$1,040-$1,110/mt FOB warehouses. “We are waiting for a potash program for spring tons that should be out soon,” said one regional contact.
India:
Port reports showed vessels carrying 117,000 mt as scheduled to unload through Dec. 18.
Brazil:
The landed price moved up to $520-$540/mt CFR. Sources said they expect the price to correct downward, despite both reduced production announced by Mosaic and new export duties enacted by the Russian government.
The Rondonopolis price tightened to $660-$680/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said the move is a minor adjustment in light of reports that supplies remain plentiful.
Imports of potash for January-November were reported at 11.3 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, offfrom12 million mt noted through the same period in 2021. The market’s primary suppliers were Canada with 4.4 million mt and Russia with 3 million mt, while Germany, Israel, and Belarus added about 1 million mt each.
November potash imports were reported at 457,000 mt, down dramatically from the 1.4 million mt imported in November 2021. Russia’s 181,000 mt amounted to 40% of the import market, while 130,000 mt from Canada represented 28% of the market. Germany sent 122,000 mt.
Bangladesh:
The Cabinet Committee late last month approved a proposal to import 50,000 mt of standard potash from Canadian government-controlled Canadian Commercial Corp. worth BDT4.14 billion (approximately $39.6 million at current exchange rates) by the Agriculture Ministry, according to a report by Bangladesh’s Daily Star.
Tampa:
Fourth-quarter Tampa molten sulfur contracts were reported at $90/lt CFR, off $262/lt from $352/lt CFR in the previous period. Rising international values relative to the start of 4Q were expected to lift Tampa in the next round of contracting.
US refinery operating rates lifted higher for the week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. Utilization was pegged at 95.5% of nationwide capacity for the period ending Dec. 2, up from the prior week’s 95.2% and ahead of both the year-ago 89.8% and the 90.3% five-year average.
Crude inputs softened, however, falling to an average 16.585 million barrels/d for the week, down 53,000 barrels/d from the week-ago 16.638 million barrels/d.
US Gulf:
Players continued to see price ideas on sulfur loading from the US Gulf in the $155-$165/mt FOB range, unmoved from the prior report.
Brazil:
Following a week-ago jump to $210-$215/mt CFR, prilled sulfur values at Brazil were noted softening slightly to $208-$215/mt CFR. The lower price was said to stem from a purchase by CMOC.
Fourth-quarter Brazil import contracts continued to be pegged at $119-$138/mt CFR.
Vancouver:
New business reported at China lifted Vancouver values, players said. Prices moved to $160-$170/mt FOB for the week, up from $150-$160/mt at last report.
Alberta:
Netbacks to Alberta suppliers firmed to the (-)$25-$100/mt FOB range in the wake of the strengthening Vancouver market, up from (-)$25-$90/mt FOB in the prior report.
With values at the low side of the range representing returns on molten tons contracted into the US market, Alberta producers were reportedly sending as much tonnage offshore as possible in pursuit of higher netbacks.
West Coast:
Prilled sulfur loading from the West Coast was indicated even with Vancouver at $160-$170/mt FOB, rising from $150-$160/mt FOB the week before.
Contracts for molten sulfur loading from refineries on the West Coast were reported in the $75-$79/lt FOB range for loading in the fourth quarter, off from $370-$385/lt FOB in 3Q.
China:
China sulfur import values moved higher during the week. Players noted new business firming to $200-$205/mt CFR, lifting from the prior $190-$195/mt CFR range. Market watchers expected a quiet market through the remainder of the year.
ADNOC:
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. solid sulfur offers for December were reported firming to $180/mt FOB Ruwais, a $40/st increase from $140/mt FOB in November.
Qatar:
Formed sulfur offered by Muntajat climbed to $185/mt FOB Ras Laffan for December lifting, sources said, up $36/mt from the prior month’s $149/mt FOB.
Kuwait:
Market sources noted sulfur vessels loading from Kuwait at $183/mt FOB for December.
US Gulf:
Sulfuric acid vessels imported to the US Gulf continued to see price ideas in the $100-$110/mt CFR range.
Brazil:
With nothing new reported, price ideas on Brazil spot sulfuric acid imports continued at $115-$125/mt CFR.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonium thiosulfate pricing edged up to $450-$475/st FOB in the region, depending on location and time of shipment, with the high confirmed at Cincinnati.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonium thiosulfate market was reported at $400-$450/st FOB in the region, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa.
Northern Plains:
No current bids were confirmed for ammonium thiosulfate. The last business was pegged at $435-$455/st FOB in the region.
Eastern Canada:
The ammonium thiosulfate market was steady at C$655-$740/mt FOB in Eastern Canada.
