All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Crops/Weather

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

Temperatures across central and northern Illinois fell from the 60s on Nov. 29 to the 20s and 30s on Nov. 30, and the colder weather was accompanied by gusty winds. Slightly warmer weather was on tap for Dec. 1-2, with highs reaching the upper-30s and low-40s.

Similar conditions were reported in Indiana and Ohio, although parts of both states were expecting an increased chance of rain by the weekend, along with temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

Western Cornbelt:

Snow blanketed much of Iowa on Nov. 29, as temperatures dropped below freezing. A winter weather advisory was in effect at midweek for parts of central Iowa and southeastern Nebraska, with highs topping out in the 30s across both states.

Strong storms also churned through parts of Missouri on Nov. 29, bringing damaging winds and freezing rain to some areas. The gusty winds were expected to linger through the week, prompting a wind advisory for most of the state on Dec. 2.

California:

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

Much of California was bracing for a pair of storms that were expected to bring heavy snow to higher elevations and needed rainfall to valleys by the weekend.

Forecasts warned of multiple feet of snow in California’s Sierra on Dec. 1-4, along with high winds. The rainy season is off to a promising start in the state, with Sierra snowpack as of Nov. 30 already 42% above average for this time of year. Rainfall totals from both storms are expected to be in the 1-2 inch range in Northern California and an inch or less in Southern California.

Pacific Northwest:

Much of the Pacific Northwest was expecting snow by the end of the week, along with potentially heavy rain in the coastal valleys.

Winter Storm Carli dumped up to two feet of snow in the Washington Cascades during the week, with accumulation in Seattle ranging from 1-6 inches. The combination of wet snow and strong winds knocked out power to more than 60,000 western Washington residents on Nov. 29-30.

Heavy wind and rain also hit the Portland, Ore., area at midweek, leaving about 9,000 residents without power on Nov. 30. Another system was expected to drop several more inches of precipitation in the Cascades over the coming weekend.

A winter weather advisory or winter storm warning was issued for all of eastern and central Idaho on Dec. 1-2, with forecasts warning of 5-25 inches of snow, depending on location. A winter weather advisory was also in effect for most of Montana on Dec. 1.

Western Canada:

After several winter storm warnings across the Prairies earlier in the week, arctic air moved into the region at midweek, causing temperatures to plummet after a warmer-than-normal November.

Blowing snow advisories were in effect for parts of Alberta and central and southern Saskatchewan as the week began, with reports of 50-70 km/h winds and 15-20 cm of fresh snowfall. More snow was likely across parts of southern Saskatchewan by the weekend, while temperatures in Calgary and Edmonton were expected to fall to -20 C on Dec. 1.

Temperatures in Manitoba plunged to -19.3 C in Winnipeg at midweek. Extreme cold warnings were in effect for parts of the province on Dec. 1-2, with wind chills expected to fall to -50 C in northern Manitoba by the end of the week and more snow likely across southwestern Manitoba.

Transportation

US Gulf:

Harvey Lock remained shut to traffic for the week due to low water levels on the lower Mississippi River, sources said. Detours were suggested through Algiers Lock.

Bayou Sorrel Lock travel continued to be restricted during the week. Intermittent navigation restrictions were noted on Monday through Friday, 6:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., while complete 24-hour access was available on Saturday and Sunday. Wait times were reported up to 12 hours on Nov. 28. The project is expected to run through February 2023.

The Atchafalaya River’s Little Island Pass, Middle Island Pass, and Riverside Pass were closed to commercial navigation until further notice due to the presence of active exposed underwater pipelines. Vessels were able to utilize the Port Allen Route as an alternate path.

Towing restrictions continued at Algiers Lock for the week, limiting unassisted lockages to four standard dry barges or two 30,000 mt tankers per pass. Larger configurations were allowed when locking with an assist vessel.

Calcasieu Lock is slated to shut to daytime navigation on Dec. 4-19, and delays are expected. Additional travel shutdowns are tentatively scheduled for late January 2023, sources said.

Belle Chasse Bridge construction triggered sporadic 12-hour navigation shutdowns during the week. The bridge is located at Mile 3 of the West Canal, and the project is slated to run through the end of the year.

Port Allen Lock wait times were observed up to 10 hours early in the week, while Industrial Lock passages were reported up to 12 hours. While most Brazil Lock waits fell in the 5-12 hour range, intermittent delays were seen as high as 24-55 hours on Nov. 25-28.

Mississippi River:

Despite recent rains throughout much of the Mississippi River Valley, low water levels continued to snag travel on the lower Mississippi River.

The St. Louis gauge was posted at 0.61 feet and falling on Nov. 30, and was expected to recede to (-)5.90 feet by Dec. 28. The gauge at Memphis, Tenn., fell below the 5.0-foot Low Stage at (-)5.23 feet on Nov. 30, and was projected to remain there through mid-December.

Draft limits were tightened to 8.5 feet from St. Louis to Cairo, Ill., down from 9.0 feet reported previously, in anticipation of falling river levels in December. Solid-cargo drafts continued at a maximum 9.0 feet for both northbound and southbound travel from Cairo to the Gulf, while liquid barges were reportedly capped at 8.5-foot drafts.

Dredging activities are expected to ramp up in December, causing localized navigation shutdowns. Dredges were standing by at Memphis and Vicksburg, Miss., on Nov. 29.

Repairs in progress at the I-10 bridge triggered a blanket safety advisory at Miles 228-230, with intermittent navigation outages anticipated. Channel work at Miles 139 and 100 is slated for December, with work at Miles 192-193 scheduled for January. Wait times at Chain of Rocks Lock were observed up to 10 hours during the week.

Illinois River:

Wickets continued in the raised position at Peoria Lock and LaGrange Lock due to low river levels, forcing tows to lock through both locations. LaGrange Lock delays were reported at eight hours on Nov. 28-29.

Dredging began on Nov. 28 at Miles 147-148, and was slated to run Monday through Friday, 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., until further notice.

Ohio River:

Commercial navigation on the Ohio River, Tennessee River, and Cumberland River remained limited to 9-foot drafts due to low water levels.

Work underway at the Montgomery Lock main chamber was scheduled to continue through Dec. 16, necessitating detours through the secondary chamber. Delays were reported in the 7-9 day range during the week, increasing from 3-8 days in the prior report.

Intermittent Olmsted Lock delays fell in the 3-7 hour range during the week. On the Tennessee River, intermittent Kentucky Lock delays were posted at 24-44 hours during the week.

Arkansas River:

Norrell Lock is scheduled to close on Jan. 30-31, completely shutting the site to navigation for a 48-hour period.

Nutrien Expects Farmers to Rebuild Stocks Heading into New Year, Reports Increased Prepay

Nutrien Ltd. CEO Ken Seitz expects farmers to begin rebuilding their stocks of fertilizers heading into the new year after running down inventories amid supply challenges, he said in an interview with Bloomberg. He said Nutrien is seeing prepaid sales of fertilizer about 15-20% higher than in 2020. He expects farmers who didn’t buy this year and have used all of their stored product to jump into the market and send prices higher again.

Fertilizer prices have fallen from the highest levels seen in years as farmers have postponed purchases to await lower prices, creating gluts that are upending the market for crop inputs. It is a reversal from earlier this year when prices surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threw the world’s crop nutrient sector into disarray. Potash also saw price increases because of sanctions on Belarus.

Weather-related events in North America and some supply concerns in Brazil have seen farmers draw from existing stocks of crop nutrients, said Seitz. But he said agriculture fundamentals are strong as disruptions in the Black Sea region mean places like Canada, Australia, and Brazil will have to step up to fill the gap. “The world is going to have to look to the other breadbaskets of the world to fill that supply gap for food,” he said.

Now Brazil is just finishing its spring planting season, and North America is experiencing a strong fall application season. “Heading into the new year, we believe we’ll be in a period of re-stocking,” he said.

Seitz sees a worldwide shortage of agricultural inputs ahead as “export challenges” keep Russia and Belarus supplies from reaching global markets. “Russia and Belarus are just enormous producers of fertilizer. There are export challenges in the region. That’s certainly going to have a material impact on the markets.”

Belarus and Russia, two of the biggest producing nations of potash, ended up exporting less due to trade restrictions and war. Seitz sees shipments from Belarus in 2022 being at least half of those in 2021, after earlier expecting them to be down by one third to two thirds. The CEO estimates that Russia’s exports are down as much as 25%.

About 60% of new production that was expected to come into the market over the next five years was in Russia and Belarus, he said, adding that it’s unclear how much of that will come online.

Meanwhile, demand continues to rise as the world population grows. Nutrien plans to ramp up potash output capability to 18 million mt by 2025, a 40% increase compared to 2020. If the market changes, the company can reevaluate additional production, Seitz said.

“We believe 2023 is not a demand concerned world, but a supply concerned world,” Seitz said. “There’s not gonna be enough potash to go around.”

Seitz sees global shortfalls lingering well into next year. “For 2023, we really don’t see any reason why that would change,” he said. “As we watch the trade flows now – especially given where potash prices are at and have been – those producers are looking for every outlet that they can find, and they’ve now exhausted those outlets.”

CVR Energy Eyes Nitrogen Spinoff; Company is Icahn’s Favorite Stock

CVR Energy Inc. announced on Nov. 21 that its Board of Directors has authorized management to explore a potential spin-off of its interests in its nitrogen fertilizer business, which is owned by CVR Energy through the general and limited partner interests it holds in CVR Partners LP, a publicly traded limited partnership.

If effected, the potential spin-off would create a new public company to hold such interests and separate the nitrogen fertilizer business from CVR Energy’s refining and renewables businesses.

If CVR Energy proceeds with the potential spin-off, it would likely be structured as a tax-free, pro-rata distribution to all CVR Energy stockholders as of a record date to be determined by the Board of CVR Energy.

If completed, upon effectiveness of the potential spin-off transaction, CVR Energy stockholders would own shares of both CVR Energy, holding the refinery and renewables businesses; and a holding company, holding CVR Energy’s current ownership of the general partner interest in, and approximately 37% of the common units (representing limited partner interests) of, CVR Partners.

“We are exploring a potential spin-off transaction which we think would, among other value-enhancing benefits, create a pure-play renewables and refining company, as well as a pure play fertilizer company,” said Dave Lamp, President and CEO of CVR Energy.

The company said there can be no assurance that the potential spin-off transaction will be completed in the manner described above – or at all. CVR Energy has not set a timetable for completion of this potential transaction.

Earlier this month, CVR Energy rallied more than 3% in postmarket trading after billionaire investor Carl Icahn told CNBC the oil refiner is his favorite stock. Icahn held about 71% of CVR’s outstanding shares as of June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Compass Minerals – Management Brief

Compass Minerals recently announced the appointments of Jon Chisholm and Shane Wagnon to the company’s Board of Directors. They were nominated for appointment by Koch Industries Inc. (Koch), pursuant to the terms of the recent $252 million strategic equity investment in Compass Minerals by Koch Minerals and Trading LLC (KM&T).

Chisholm currently serves as the Managing Director for Koch Disruptive Technologies, leading the energy transformation investment vertical for the company. Prior to that he served from 2014-2022 as Vice President of KM&T, where he was responsible for business development and strategy, leading investments in steel, specialty chemicals, energy, industrial technologies, and bulk commodities.

He started his career at Koch in 2005 and has worked in several roles and for various companies across Koch’s subsidiaries, including Flint Hills Resources, Koch Fertilizer, Koch Carbon, and KM&T. He currently serves on the Board of Directors for PQ Corp. Chisholm earned a B.S. in business administration with a major in finance from Oklahoma State University.

Wagnon currently serves as the Vice President of Trading and Terminals for Koch Carbon LLC. In this role, he holds profit and loss (P&L) responsibility for the company’s low-sulfur petroleum coke division and manages its ocean freight chartering group, along with general business development and strategy. Prior to his current role, Wagnon served from 2012-2019 as General Manager of the company’s Global Sulfur business, where he was responsible for the supply, trading, and sales of elemental sulfur.

Wagnon first joined Koch in 2004. Prior to his commercial leadership roles, he specialized in various business development capacities, including capital projects, M&A, corporate restructuring, private equity partnerships, and tax-equity investments. Wagnon earned a B.S. in business administration with a major in finance from Wichita State University.

With Chisholm’s and Wagnon’s appointments, the Compass Board has expanded to 12 members.

Cargill Inc. – Management Brief

Cargill Inc. has named Brian Sikes, 54, as its new CEO, replacing David MacLennan, who will take on a new role as Executive Chair.

Sikes, who became Chief Operating Officer last year after running Cargill’s meat business, will take the top job on Jan. 1 and MacLennan will start his new job this month. He will ensure a “smooth” transition to Sikes, according to the company.

The changes come after MacLennan, who turned the 157-year old agricultural commodities trader into a protein giant, delivered two consecutive years of record profits.

MacLennan is credited with turning Cargill into a meat giant and pivoting the company into high-margin businesses at a time when its major competitors were still struggling to make money from buying and selling grain. His strategy’s success catapulted Cargill into one of the biggest US beef processors.

Sikes has been with Cargill for 31 years and will be the company’s 10th CEO. He has held leadership roles in the US, Canada, and Europe, and was also responsible for growing the company’s global protein and salt business.

He was the trader’s first COO since 2013, a position Cargill does not usually have in its corporate structure. The last person to hold the position was MacLennan himself.

MacLennan joined Cargill in 1991 and held various positions in places, including London, Minneapolis, and Geneva, before being named COO in 2011 and CEO in 2013. He put Cargill on a path to achieving gender parity by 2030, with women now representing 46% of the company’s executive team. He also hired the trader’s first female CFO.

Before Cargill, MacLennan began his career in Chicago, where he was a runner, phone clerk, and risk manager in the futures industry.

Heringer Reports 3Q Loss, Conventional Volumes Up, Specialty Down

Fertilizantes Heringer reported a third-quarter loss of R$110.8 million on revenues of R$1.8 billion, down from year-ago income of R$101.3 million and revenues of R$1.31 billion. EBITDA was a negative R$45.9 million, down from the year-ago R$257.5 million.

While third-quarter volumes were only off 3.6% to 426,601 mt from the year-ago 448,886 mt, a different story was told with respect to conventional and specialty fertilizers. Conventional volumes were up 25.5%, to 288,000 mt from 229,000 mt, while specialty was off 34%, to 145,000 mt from 220,000 mt.

Nine-month volumes were off 8.2%, to 975,965 from 1.06 million mt. The conventional volumes were up 2.9%, to 570,000 mt from the year-ago 554,000 mt, while specialty was down 20.3%, to 406,000 mt from 509,000 mt.

Heringer posted a nine-month loss of R$77.1 million on revenues of R$4.1 billion, down from the year-ago income of R$238.6 million and revenues of $2.62 billion. EBITDA was R$63.3 million, down from the year-ago R$467.1 million.

Landus – Management Brief

Landus, Iowa’s largest farmer-owned cooperative and the seventh largest grain company in North America by storage, announced on Nov. 21 that industry veteran Bruce Vernon has joined the executive leadership team to lead a wholly owned subsidiary, Landus Conduit LLC.

Landus said Landus Conduit will extend the company’s intellectual capital and capabilities into new markets and geographies, and will connect farmers and aligned agriculture and grain organizations with collaborators to “streamline supply chain and access incremental value.” Collaborations will benefit from new service options through the Landus GROW Solutions Center and financing partners to create new capabilities and channels for sustainability across all segments, the company said.

“At Landus, we continually explore ways to bring value to our farmer-owners,” said Matt Carstens, Landus President and CEO. “The opportunity to add someone like Bruce to our team and engage collaborating companies through Landus Conduit adds increasing value for progressive farmers looking for leadership and engagement from their strategic partners.”

Vernon joins Landus after almost eight years as CEO of The Equity, Effingham, Ill., the largest independent agricultural cooperative in Illinois, where he and his team led the organization to record sales and income. Prior to that he served as Vice President, Fertilizer, with Viterra’s AgriProducts Group in Regina, Sask., and as Vice President of Sales and Marketing for Mid-Kansas Cooperative (MKC) in Moundridge, Kan. Before joining MKC in March 2007, Vernon was Director of Crop Nutrient Marketing and Risk Management Services for Agriliance LLC in Inver Grove Heights, Minn.

“It’s a tremendous opportunity to apply my career experience and wide network to an innovative and agile company like Landus that is redefining the meaning of a cooperative,” Vernon said. “As we work through the possibilities for applying Landus’ core offerings through adjacent partners, we recognize numerous opportunities to create more value for our farmer-owners and partnership network. It’s an exciting time to be a part of this organization.”

Initially reporting to Vernon will be grain teams from Consus, which formed a grain partnership with Landus in September, and the Landus cross-country trading team. He will lead Landus Conduit from the company’s Kansas City, Mo., office and can be reached at Bruce.Vernon@Landus.Ag.

PyroGenesis Reports Hydrogen Production from New Tech

Clean tech company PyroGenesis Canada Inc., Montreal, reported on Nov. 10 that it has successfully produced hydrogen from methane using its Zero Carbon Emission (ZCE) hydrogen production technology. The company’s plasma-based process converts methane into both turquoise hydrogen as well as a solid carbon byproduct, which has several industrial applications.

“Water Electrolysis has been around for many years and is considered to be a ZCE technology as well,” said P. Peter Pascali, CEO and Chair of PyroGenesis. “The hydrogen generated from this process is generally referred to as ‘green hydrogen,’ however, it is recognized to (i) be expensive, (ii) require a lot of energy for its production, and (iii) use rare earth materials. PyroGenesis’ new technology is geared to combine the best of both worlds; it is expected to be cheaper than most existing hydrogen processes while at the same time producing ZCE hydrogen.”

The company said the next step is to convert its bench test into a pilot unit. PyroGenesis has filed an international application No. PCT/CA2021/000099 with WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organization) entitled “Hydrogen Production from Hydrocarbons by Plasma Pyrolysis.” This application covers the Company’s process for producing hydrogen from methane and other light hydrocarbons using thermal plasma without generating GHGs.