Western Cornbelt:
The ammonium nitrate market was unchanged at $640-$650/st FOB Missouri terminals for the last reported offers.
All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net
Ammonium Sulfate
US Gulf:
The NOLA ammonium sulfate barge market remained quiet at $400-$410/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The granular ammonium sulfate market was unchanged at $460-$480/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati market quoted in the $465-$480/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt:
Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was steady at $445-$480/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.
Northern Plains:
Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $460-$475/st FOB St. Paul and $495/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa, for the last confirmed offers. Delivered ammonium sulfate prices were up slightly in the Northern Plains, to $460-$470/st in North Dakota from the prior $450-$465/st DEL range.
Northeast:
Delivered ammonium sulfate prices in the Northeast jumped to $510-$545/st, up from the previous $490-$515/st DEL range, following last week’s posted increase from AdvanSix.
AdvanSix on Oct. 17 raised its ammonium sulfate postings at Hopewell, Va., to $490/st FOB for granular, $450/st FOB for mid-grade, and $430/st FOB for standard. Those levels are up $40/st from the company’s Aug. 15 reference prices.
Eastern Canada:
Ammonium sulfate fill pricing strengthened to C$818-$825/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up C$63/mt from last report at the low end of the range.
China:
Sources said all the talks about ammonium sulfate deals in China are revolving around $215-$220/mt FOB, but nothing has been done at those levels. There are reports that some small sales were made at the lower end of the existing $220-$225/mt FOB range.
Rumors are circulating that the Chinese government will ban all fertilizer exports in 2023, with the exception of ammonium sulfate.
January-September 2022 exports of ammonium sulfate were reported at 8.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up from the 7.1 million mt exported during the same period in 2021. The main buyer was Brazil with 2.7 million mt, followed by Vietnam with 730,000 mt and Turkey with 703,000 mt.
Third-quarter ammonium sulfate exports were reported at 4 million mt, up almost 60% from the 2.5 million mt exported during July-September 2021.Brazil took 1.8 million mt, with all the other buyers taking less than 300,000 mt.
September 2022 exports were reported at 1.8 million mt, up from 775,000 mt in September 2021. Brazil grabbed 42% of the exports at 735,000 mt.
Brazil:
The ammonium sulfate price range in Brazil slipped to $280-$285/mt CFR. Sources said the drop reflects the softening urea market. Rondonopolis also showed a decline in pricing to $410-$420/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
More of the Same for the Mississippi
Barge woes continued on the Mississippi River, though brief rains on Tuesday, Oct. 25, brought some relief to the Lower Mississippi. Sources said the restrictions have resulted in total capacity reductions of 25-50% or more from typical levels.
Two sections of the river were shut near Tunica, Miss., and Memphis on Oct. 25 for dredging amid low water levels. Some 84 vessels and 1,303 barges were in line at Tunica, with 14 vessels and 339 barges at Memphis. However, one-lane northbound traffic was slated to temporarily reopen later in the day at both locations.
The river gauge at Memphis was reported at (-) 9.25 feet and holding on Oct. 26, while Vicksburg, Miss., levels stood at (-)0.07 feet, with both locations below the Low Stage threshold. St. Louis rose to 1.08 feet from the week-ago (-)1.57 feet, with this attributed to the brief rain in Missouri on Oct. 25, but was expected to return to a negative depth reading on Nov. 3. All three gauges were forecast to remain at critically low levels through at least Nov. 10.
The latest USDA Grain Transportation Report (GTR) offered some hope, saying that by mid-November, the slightly above-normal rain forecast may begin to provide relief and help stabilize some portions of the river. However, for the week of Oct. 25 it reported that St. Louis spot barge rates increased almost 22% to $88.46/st from the week-ago rate, though the increase is still lower than the all-time peak of $105.85/st during the week of Oct. 11.
Because of the low water levels, barge companies have little capacity in the spot market as they struggle to meet current commitments, said GTR. In the meantime, future barge rates are higher than normal due to low barge availability combined with new export sales of soybeans, prompting a need for barges from November through early next year.
DAP/MAP
Central Florida:
DAP trucks sold from Central Florida were posted at $770/st FOB for the week, steady from the prior report. MAP trucks were posted at $790/st FOB, also flat compared to one week earlier.
Truck-loaded MAP selling from North Florida continued to be quoted at $820/st FOB.
US Gulf:
With the upper Mississippi River now effectively closed to new barge sales loading from NOLA, players reported falling prices for the week.
Offers for prompt and nearby loading reportedly fell to at least $700/st FOB for DAP, down from the week-ago $720/st FOB low. Offers for domestically produced DAP barges continued to be quote at $775/st FOB, with no sales reported.
Some tipped the current NOLA DAP market closer to the $695-$705/st FOB range, although a lack of bidding during the week failed to confirm those levels as of Oct. 27. Sources noted trading of moving barges at a $727/st FOB NOLA-equivalent, suggesting an ongoing market preference for upriver cargoes.
Nearby MAP barges fared worse than DAP, sources said, with offers for prompt NOLA tons reported at a $695/st FOB low, off from the prior $725/st FOB floor. Domestic MAP barge offers were posted at $775/st FOB, unchanged from one week earlier.
In addition to the impending river close, low water levels on the Mississippi River continued to snag river transit, further pressuring NOLA tons. The adverse river conditions were expected to extend into the second week of November at a minimum.
The NOLA DAP barge market was noted softening to the $700-$720/st FOB range for the week, down from $720-$730/st FOB reported previously. MAP barges were reported at $695-$725/st FOB, below the prior week’s $725-$740/st FOB range.
US Exports:
Nothing new was reported selling out of the US Gulf during the week. Recent spot business included a 5,000 mt DAP cargo destined for a single destination in northern Latin America, with pricing quoted at $700/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP remained at $810-$840/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP quoted at $830-$855/st FOB, depending on location. The Cincinnati market was steady at $810-$815/st FOB for DAP and $830-$845/st FOB for MAP.
In the Great Lakes region, MAP offers FOB Saginaw, Mich., were reported at the $860/st FOB level.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP was quoted at $810-$820/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP reported at $825-$850/st FOB, depending on location. The St. Louis market was pegged at $810-$815/st for DAP and $825-$830/st FOB for MAP.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing inched up to $810-$830/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP reported at the $830-$850/st FOB level at that location. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota was pegged at $860/st in late October, down $30/st from last report.
Northeast:
DAP was quoted at $830/st FOB East Liverpool, up $5/st from last report. MAP pricing in the Northeast was pegged at $850/st FOB East Liverpool and up to $880/st FOB Fairless Hills, with delivered tons reported at the $905/st level in central Pennsylvania.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing in Eastern Canada slipped to C$1,200-$1,280/mt FOB in late October, down C$50/mt at the low end of the range. The DAP market at Montreal was quoted at the C$1,180/mt FOB level, down from C$1,240/mt FOB at last report.
China:
Sources said DAP sales to Southeast Asian buyers showed a netback to China of $710-$720/mt FOB.
Traders noted that the focus of any spot deals is away from India and toward the regional buyers. The current Indian price of $740-$750/mt FOB is too low for the Chinese producers. There are still some cargoes of DAP being shipped to India under contracts negotiated by major buyers and Chinese producers on a formula basis.
January-September 2022 DAP exports were reported at 2.6 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, about half of the 5.3 million mt exported during the same period in 2021. The main buyers were India with 825,000 mt and Bangladesh with 518,000 mt.
Third-quarter DAP exports were reported at 1.3 million mt, down from the 2.1 million mt exported during the July-September period in 2021.
September 2022 DAP exports were reported at 469,000 mt, down from the 550,000 mt exported in September 2021. Bangladesh was responsible for taking 44% of the exports with 205,000 mt. India came in second with 86,000 mt, for 18% of the exports.
Third-quarter MAP exports were reported at 561,000 mt, down 64% from the 1.55 million mt exported during the July-September 2021 period. September 2022 MAP exports were reported at 243,000 mt, down from the 312,000 mt exported during September 2021.
India:
Sources said DAP deals with Ma’aden put the price into India at $740-$750/mt CFR, tightening the price range upward.
The higher price for the natural gas needed to produce DAP is putting pressure on the Indian government to increase the budget for fertilizer subsidies. Producers did get a small break when the price of phos acid dropped for the fourth quarter.
Brazil:
The price of MAP in Brazil remained stable at $630-$640/mt FOB. Sellers said they expect to see stepped up interest as the soybean planting season approaches. International traders, however, said the market is mostly liquidating holdings amid slow demand.
Rondonopolis MAP pricing is reported down to $750-$765/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said interest might be building, not only because of the soybean demands, but also for applications on corn.
TSP
US Gulf:
TSP barges were heard softening to $660-$670/st FOB NOLA, down from the previous $660-$680/st FOB range. Most pricing for the week was expected closer to the $670/st FOB mark, players indicated.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The TSP market was reported at $745/st FOB Cincinnati for the last confirmed offers.
Western Cornbelt:
The TSP market remained at $750-$760/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis.
Phosphoric Acid
Eastern Cornbelt:
Phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt were unchanged at $14.00/unit rail-DEL for October.
Western Cornbelt:
Phos acid pricing was steady at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt for October tons.
Northern Plains:
Phos acid pricing for October shipments remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Northern Plains.
India:
Fourth-quarter India phos acid contracts were reported in the $1,100-$1,200/mt P2O5 CFR range, down from $1,715/mt P2O5 CFR for the second and third quarters.
Ammonium Polyphosphate
Eastern Cornbelt:
10-34-0 pricing remained at $665-$675/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with pricing out of Michigan warehouses pegged at the $680/st FOB level in late October.
Western Cornbelt:
10-34-0 was pegged at the $655-$675/st FOB level in the Western Cornbelt for the last confirmed offers, with the upper end confirmed in the Iowa market.
Northern Plains:
10-34-0 offers were quoted at $665-$670/st FOB in the region, with delivered pricing pegged at $700-$710/st DEL in central North Dakota.
Northeast:
10-34-0 prices in New York were quoted at $720/st FOB, unchanged from last report.
Strike Makes FEED, Ownership Engineering Awards For Urea Project
Thebarton, South Australia-based Strike Energy Ltd. has awarded the Front-End Engineering (FEED) for its proposed Project Haber development at Three Springs Shire southeast of Dongara in Western Australia to French engineering group Technip Energies, and the Owner’s Engineering to Wood Group Australia Pty Ltd.
Strike this past June moved the proposed project some 100 kilometers inland from its planned location adjacent to Geraldton Port to Three Springs Shire (GM June 10, p. 28). The project includes the development of a 1.4 million mt/y urea plant and an 800,000 mt/y ammonia unit.
Technip Engineering recently has executed the design and construction of several reference plants of similar capacity, enabling the firm to efficiently complete the engineering works on Port Haber, which are currently estimated to take 9-10 months from commencement, said Strike in an Oct. 27 ASX release announcing the awards.
As owner’s engineer, Wood will provide technical and engineering oversight services for the duration of the project to monitor and assess the work in progress, ensuring the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction contractor delivers work consistent with the project’s requirements, Strike said.
Strike earlier reported it has selected key technology providers for the proposed project, namely Danish firm Topsøe (for the autothermal reforming and ammonia synthesis), Italy’s Saipem (for the urea synthesis), and German firm ThyssenKrupp (for the urea granulation).
The environmental referral for Port Haber, together with the supporting documentation for its key Part IV environmental approvals, have been submitted to Western Australia’s Environmental Protection Agency.
Strike pointed out that these approvals are expected to be the longest lead item preparing the project for financial close prior to a construction commitment. The company engaged Australian firm Strategen-JB&G to assist with the environmental and planning approvals required for the project (GM April 16, 2021).
The project was launched in January 2021 (GM Jan. 15, p. 1), and would use gas from Strike’s Greater Erregulla development in the Perth Basin via a 120-km pipeline.
Strike this past May selected Koch Fertilizer LLC, a subsidiary of Koch Industries Inc., Wichita, as the preferred bidder for the offtake of 100% of the 1.4 million mt/y of granulated urea production from Project Haber (GM May 20, p. 1).
Muriate of Potash
US Gulf:
NOLA potash barges remained in the $565-$575/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash prices continue to fall in the Eastern Cornbelt, with new offers FOB Cincinnati reported at $655/st, down from the last confirmed $675/st FOB level. Potash pricing in the Great Lakes region was reported at $675-$707/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Toledo and the high for white potash out of Michigan warehouse.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash pricing fell to $650-$670/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis and the high in Iowa on a spot basis.
Northern Plains:
Sources quoted potash pricing at $680-$690/st FOB and $720/st rail-DEL in the Northern Plains. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines, based on current exchange rates, were reported at $653-$663/st after netbacks, depending on grade and destination.
Northeast:
The potash market in the Northeast fell to $685/st FOB East Liverpool and $720/st DEL for the latest offers, down from the previous $705/st FOB and $730/st DEL levels. The last potash price at Fairless Hills was pegged at the $690-$700/st FOB level.
Eastern Canada:
The potash market in Eastern Canada remained in the C$1,056-$1,110/mt range FOB warehouses, unchanged from last report.
China:
Imports of MOP for January-September 2022 were reported at 6.2 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up marginally from the 6 million mt imported during the same period of 2021. The main suppliers were Canada, Belarus, and Russia, each supplying 1.5-1.7 million mt.
Third-quarter 2022 MOP imports were up dramatically, to 2.1 million mt from the 1.5 million mt imported during the July-September 2021 period.September 2022 MOP imports were reported at 651,000 mt, up 20% from the 545,000 mt imported during September 2021.
Brazil:
Prices of MOP continue to soften in Brazil, with sources pegging the market at $570-$620/mt CFR. Further drops are expected to take the price range well below $600/mt CFR. Sources point to limited demand and high stockpiles to back up their arguments for lower prices.
The Rondonopolis MOP price continued its downward path as well. Sources now peg the market at $735-$750/mt FOB ex-warehouse, with reports that inland suppliers have too many tons and not enough buyers.
Sulfur
Tampa:
A firming international market relative to the start of Q4 has left the Tampa molten contract price at a discount to some markets, sources said, incentivizing suppliers in the US Gulf and Alberta to send as much product offshore as possible.
Domestic US demand was described as improving for the week, thanks in part to the recent completion of repairs at hurricane-damaged phosphate production and mining facilities in Florida, leading some to describe current domestic fundamentals as firm-to-balanced.
Rising logistics costs could influence 2023 contract discussions, some said. A looming logistics increase could also spur front-loaded buying ahead of 2023.
The fourth-quarter Tampa molten sulfur contract was valued at $90/lt CFR, falling from $352/lt CFR in the prior period.
Nationwide US refinery utilization moved lower for the week ending Oct. 21, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted, a third consecutive week of falling capacity levels stretching back to Oct. 7.
Utilization was reported at 88.9% for the week, down from 89.5% one week earlier, but ahead of both the year-ago 85.1% and the 84.6% five-year average.
Daily crude inputs also softened, moving to an average 15.436 million barrels/d for the period, falling from the week-ago 15.550 million barrels/d rate.
US Gulf:
Projected price increases at Brazil were likely to press the US Gulf market higher in the next round of business, with some pinpointing potential new values approaching the $130s/mt FOB. The market was most recently reported in the $100-$120/mt FOB range.
Brazil:
While no new trades were reported for the week, a purchase tender reportedly opened by CMOC will likely move the market higher in the next round of business, sources said. “Brazil tender with (CMOC) upcoming may test $170 delivered,” said one player. The market was most recently reported in the $139-$158/mt CFR range.
Contracts for delivery in the fourth quarter were quoted in the $119-$138/mt CFR range.
Vancouver:
Price increases in China pushed the Vancouver market up to $130-$135/st FOB for the week. Values were previously reported at $115-$120/mt FOB.
Alberta:
Alberta netbacks were indicated in the (-)25-$65/mt FOB range, firming from the prior week’s (-)25-$50/mt FOB level. Solid tons exported through the Vancouver market continued to occupy the top of the range, while molten material contracted into the US market set the low side.
A Suncor sulfur forming facility anticipated to start operations in the near-term will likely increase the share of tons headed offshore versus into the US market, some argued.
West Coast:
Solid sulfur loading from the West Coast was indicated in the $130-$135/mt FOB range, above the prior week’s $115-$120/mt FOB. Contracts for molten sulfur loading from West Coast refineries were reported in the $75-$79/lt FOB range for the fourth quarter, falling from $370-$385/lt FOB in the prior period.
China:
Granular sulfur delivered to China was reported firming to $170-$175/mt CFR for the week, a rise from the prior $150-$160/mt CFR level.
ADNOC:
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) solid sulfur offers were heard at $103/mt FOB Ruwais for October lifting, $11/mt above the $92/mt FOB level published for September.
Qatar:
Muntajat sulfur postings for October were reported at $104/mt FOB Ras Laffan. Sources noted the Qatar market at $89/mt FOB in September, a $15/mt difference.