US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia
moved up for October, but ever so slightly. Prices firmed just $25/mt, to
$1,175/mt CFR, up from September’s $1,150/mt CFR. While European ammonia outages have required ammonia imports, some
sources argued that international supplies were plentiful enough to supply
Europe without the need for much of a price increase.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market
remained at $1,250-$1,300/st FOB for the last confirmed offers in the Eastern
Cornbelt, with the low in Illinois and the high FOB Lima, Ohio, for both prompt
or prepay tons.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was steady at
$1,200-$1,225/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt for the last confirmed offers,
with the high at Palmyra, Mo., and the low reported in Nebraska and Iowa on a
spot basis.
California:
Ammonia postings in California were
confirmed at $1,250/st DEL for September tons, up from the previous $1,147/st
DEL price. New aqua ammonia postings in the state were quoted at $271-$336/st
FOB, with the low at Stockton while inventory is available, and the high at
Sycamore.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest
was pegged at $1,275-$1,325/st FOB and $1,325-$1,350/st DEL, up significantly
from early September pricing in the $1,070-$1,200/st FOB and $1,050-$1,100/st
DEL ranges.
The aqua ammonia market firmed to $345/st
FOB in the region, up $50/st from last report.
Western Canada:
The last offers for ammonia were quoted
in a broad C$1,600-$1,800/mt DEL range for fall tons in Western Canada, up
C$100/mt from last report at the low end of the range.
Black Sea:
The damage to the
Nord Stream natural gas pipeline raised more concerns about talks to reopen the
ammonia pipeline from Russia to Odessa, Ukraine.
Talk of
reactivating the pipeline started in mid-September when the United Nations and
Trammo discussed shipping Russian ammonia under the deal that allows for the
export of grain and fertilizers. The ammonia pipeline passes through areas of
Ukraine where Ukrainian and Russian forces are still in active combat. One
trader said the possibility of damage to the pipeline would be too great and
could cause more damage than what has been seen from the recent Nord Stream
breaks.
Some in the
ammonia industry were also perplexed by the UN move. Sources said except for
the US, no country uses ammonia as a fertilizer. One trader added that there is
enough ammonia available to cover the needs of urea and DAP producers. While
sources admit the price for ammonia is higher than in the past, having adequate
supplies is not the issue. While the loss of Russian ammonia from the Black Sea
and the Baltic ports did disrupt the market initially, buyers have been
aggressive in securing their needs from other sources.
Despite the talk,
industry sources said port authorities have not yet received any orders to
prepare for the storage and loading of ammonia. Likewise, vessel inquiries to
pick up the product are not being reported.
India:
Buyers in India
are still taking what spot tons they can, and the main source for these
purchases appears to be China. The deals at $850-$900/mt CFR are usually for
10,000-15,000 mt.
Contract tons from
the Arab Gulf in larger volumes are also still coming in. Nailing down a spot
deal from the Arab Gulf, however, is much harder. Producers are holding to FOB
prices that exceed the landed Indian price, leaving Indian buyers to look
elsewhere for a bargain.
The recent deals
between Saudi and Omani suppliers with OCP will make finding any discounts on
spot deals more difficult, said one trader.
Middle East:
Sources said Saudi
and Omani firms have signed contracts with OCP in Morocco for large quantities
of ammonia. The deals reportedly cover the loss of 500,000-900,000 mt from
Russia that OCP faced when exports from the Black Sea stopped due to the
Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The contracts are
reportedly only for one year. Sources said the deals will take up any excess
tons the Arab Gulf producers might have had, leaving few, if any, opportunities
for spot sales. The contracts are a boon to the producers, said one trader. Excess
tons had been building up as buyers, such as India, were demanding prices lower
than producers were willing to accept. The sales to OCP should take care of the
built-up reserves and prevent any tons from sitting around looking for a buyer.
Sources did not
know the settled price of the deals, but speculated it would be formula-based,
with each cargo’s price determined by published numbers. The current contract
price out of the Arab Gulf is reported at $1,000-$1,100/mt FOB, with no spot
deals reported.
OCP had been
pursuing ammonia from suppliers as far afield as Indonesia and Trinidad in the
fallout of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, said sources, the
phosphate giant reduced the output of DAP for MAP and TSP, which required less
ammonia. This allowed OCP to maintain its DAP contracts while also nursing its
ammonia reserves. With the new contract in hand, sources expect to see DAP
production step up to normal levels.
Sources were
careful to point out that while the deal with the Arab Gulf producers will
cover most of OCP’s needs, it may not be enough. To fill in the gap, OCP is
expected to continue to seek out occasional spot purchases from Southeast Asia
and Trinidad.
Northwest Europe:
The ammonia market
has stabilized, with no new deals to move the price from the $1,310/mt C&F
recently achieved.
Even before the
damage to the Nord Stream gas line was discovered, the price of natural gas put
the production cost of 1 mt of ammonia at more than $2,000. The shutdown of the
gas line will push that price higher.
Despite the higher
European production costs, sources do not expect the Northwest Europe price of
ammonia to skyrocket. Buyers can secure tons from Trinidad and Southeast Asia
at levels that allow for the current price to hold, sources said. Availability
from North Africa is also considered likely. Some tons from the Arab Gulf might
also be tossed into the mix, even though the last deal with OCP is leaving
producers with fewer tons available for spot sales.
European producers are expected to keep churning out ammonia despite the high cost. Sources said the plants need to fulfil contracts, not only for ammonia, but also for byproduct material such as CO2 for non-fertilizer industries.
Southeast Asia:
Sources said the ammonia
buying market remains soft. Industrial buyers continue to ask suppliers to slow
down deliveries of contracted tons. At the same time, the buyers are also
invoking the provisions in their contracts that allow for reduced amounts in
each shipment.
The lack of buying
demand is leaving some producers in the area with extra tons for sale. Buyers
in Northwest Europe continue to monitor the price and availability of product, along
with shipping costs, to determine if a deal can be made. So far, deals have
been done that allow for a reasonable netback to the producer and no price
increase in Europe.
Imports of ammonia
into Thailand for January-August were reported at 237,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 12% from the
269,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers in 2022
so far have been Malaysia with 154,000 mt, and Indonesia with 75,000 mt.
August 2022 imports were reported at
32,000 mt, up dramatically from the 2,600 mt imported during August 2021.
Indonesia sent 16,000 mt, for 52% of the import market in August. Malaysia
rounded out the sales with 15,000 mt, for 48% of the market.