US Gulf:
NOLA granular urea
barges topped out and were in retreat as the week progressed. The market was
called $630-$680/st FOB, down from the week-ago $680-$710/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea prices in the
Eastern Cornbelt were pegged at $715-$745/st FOB for new offers, with both the
high and low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio, as the week progressed.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices were slipping in the Western
Cornbelt, fueled by falling NOLA barge values. The regional market was pegged
$690-$720/st FOB, depending on location and timing, with St. Louis, Mo.,
pricing reported at $690-$705/st FOB, down from the prior week’s $710-$725/st
FOB range.
The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market was
reported at $702-$715/st FOB during the week, with St. Paul, Minn., pricing
quoted at $705-$730/st FOB.
California:
Urea prices were moving up in California,
with reports of new bulk offers firming to $840/st FOB Stockton, up from the
previous $710-$760/st range FOB port terminals. Reference
prices for bagged urea were reported at $900/st FOB Stockton.
Pacific Northwest:
The urea market was pegged at
$750-$755/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with the low confirmed at Rivergate,
Ore. Rail-DEL pricing ranged from $730-$780/st FOB in the region, up from
$650-$670/st DEL in mid-August.
Western Canada:
Urea prices continued to climb in Western
Canada, fueled by the recent surge in NOLA barge pricing and Europe’s
gas-related nitrogen outages.
Sources pegged the market at C$1,100-$1,135/mt FOB for September tons and up to C$1,130-$1,150/mt FOB for October-November, with new delivered postings also confirmed in the C$1,130-$1,150/mt range.
India:
The urea industry
spent the past week looking for indications of how prices will go in the Indian
tender that closed on Sept. 9. They were also speculating where the tonnage
will come from to cover the 1 million mt desired by RCF.
The first set of
offers were opened in the so-called technical round, showing 16 companies
offering a total of 2.25 million mt. Offers to deliver to West Coast ports
dominated the offers at 1.2 million mt. East Coast deliveries came in at
930,000 mt. In addition to the 2,155,900 mt offered by traders, Fertiglobe
offered 90,000 mt on an FOB basis.
|
Offering
Company
|
Quantity
Offered (mt)
|
Delivery
Port
|
|
Ameropa
|
47,150
|
Mundra
|
|
47,150
|
Mundra
|
|
47,150
|
Pipavav
|
|
42,000
|
Pipavav
|
|
47,150
|
Kakinada
|
|
47,150
|
Paradip
|
|
47,150
|
Krishnapatnam
|
|
42,000
|
Krishnapatnam
|
|
Swiss Singapore
|
90,000
|
ECI
|
|
200,000
|
WCI
|
|
OQ Trading
|
90,000
|
ECI
|
|
135,000
|
WCI
|
|
Samsung
|
45,000
|
ECI
|
|
180,000
|
WCI
|
|
Midgulf
|
100,000
|
ECI
|
|
100,000
|
WCI
|
|
Sabic
|
100,000
|
WCI
|
|
Aries
|
95,000
|
ECI
|
|
Fertcom
|
45,000
|
ECI
|
|
45,000
|
WCI
|
|
Fertiglobe
|
90,000
|
WCI
|
|
Koch
|
45,000
|
ECI
|
|
45,000
|
WCI
|
|
Gavilon
|
45,000
|
ECI
|
|
45,000
|
WCI
|
|
Keytrade
|
38,000
|
ECI
|
|
42,000
|
WCI
|
|
Dreymoor
|
60,000
|
WCI
|
|
Sun
International
|
54,000
|
ECI
|
|
AgriCommodities
|
50,000
|
ECI
|
|
Wilson
|
50,000
|
ECI
|
Throughout the
week, traders focused on the dangers to the market if prices come in too high
or too low. Rumors circulated earlier in the week that at least one trader was
holding a cargo that had to be liquidated at $580/mt FOB from the Arab Gulf. If
that trader dumped that load on the Indian tender, the price into India would
have been around $600/mt CFR. The buyer would have been required to accept that
offer as the lowest one presented and ask other traders to match the price.
Sources said no one would be able to meet that price, leaving RCF with only
that one cargo. This would force India to call another tender quickly.
If prices were too
high, RCF would be reluctant to take the full 1 million mt it wanted. Sources
said only by having prices in the $650-$720/mt CFR range would there be enough
tons to cover the 1 million mt demand at a price the Indian treasury could
accept.
Another quick
tender because of a limited take due to high prices or because of an outlier
disrupting the market would have pushed the market to much higher levels, said
sources. The week opened with traders speculating that offers would be around
$700-$720/mt CFR. As the week progressed, however, softer prices began to
filter into the discussions. By the end of the week most were convinced the
price would settle at $650-$680/mt CFR.
Sources said
reports out of India indicate prices appear to be at $670-$680/mt CFR for East
Coast arrival and $685/mt CFR for West Coast deliveries, with no word on the
price connected to the direct offer of 90,000 mt by Fertiglobe. Sources said
RCF will most likely not release the prices until Monday. One trader said RCF
is notorious for being methodical and bureaucratic in its handling of tenders.
If the rumors are
true, sources said the urea market will see a slight bullish shift, but no
major jolts to pricing or availability.
Sources said it
may be difficult, but not impossible, for RCF to secure all the tons it wants.
Estimates are that the buyer should be able to secure 800,000 mt for sure and
possibly the full 1 million mt. The bulk of the tonnage is expected to come
from the Arab Gulf. Chinese product could be limited to only 100,000 mt or two
cargoes.
There are
expectations that some sizable offers backed by Russian tons will also play a
role in the tender. At least a cargo or two is expected from Indonesia and
Nigeria. Product from Vietnam is seen as too expensive to be offered into
India.
For traders
looking to snag an award, the wild card remains China. While sources said
100,000 mt would likely be the total authorized for export, they have a series
of concerns. Reportedly so far not even the expected 100,000 mt has cleared the
customs process in China, and there is concern the paperwork might not be completed
in time for the Oct. 21 shipping deadline.
On the other hand,
some have raised concerns that the clearance process could be sped and more than
the 100,000 mt might be made available for export. Either way, said one trader,
all calculations will have to be redone.
As of the calling
of the tender, India had an expected annual deficit of 4 million mt of urea. If
RCF achieves its goal of 1 million mt, the country will need to bring in
another 3 million mt by the first quarter of 2023. Sources expect to see even
higher prices as India would have to compete with buyers around the world at a
time when winter will require governments to emphasize natural gas supplies for
home heating instead of industrial output.
Local media
reported calls for more intensive inspections at warehouses to ensure
subsidized urea purchased for agricultural purposes is not diverted to
industrial use. To prevent the possibility of diversion, the government
mandated all subsidized urea be coated with neem. The coating helps slow the
distribution of urea into the soil and makes it unusable in industry.
The call for
stepped-up investigations came as more reports surfaced of local distributors
removing the neem and selling the urea to local factories.
Black Sea:
Sources reported
public deals coming out of the Black Sea are not from Russia, but from its
eastern neighbors. Shipments are heaping out of Poti in Georgia on the eastern
shore of the Black Sea. Other deals from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are also
being shipped out.
Sources put the
price of the granular shipments around $690-$730/mt FOB, with prilled sales pegged
at $550-$600/mt FOB. Reportedly, the upper end of the range was where deals
were discussed at the beginning of the week. As the week ended, however, the
discussion slipped to the lower end of the range.
Some Russian
material is expected to be offered in the Indian tender. Sources said the
tonnage is most likely part of the offers submitted by companies that have
traditionally handled Russia urea. The most likely players are Dreymoor and
Trammo.
Indonesia:
Sources reported a
urea sale to Swiss Singapore at $600-$623/mt FOB. The deal showed a continued
mild strengthening in Indonesian prices. The tonnage is expected to be included
in the RCF/India tender offers. Reportedly producers settled after pushing hard
for $700/mt FOB.
Middle East:
Sources said Arab
Gulf producers are expected to supply at least 250,000 mt for trader offers
into the Indian tender. Only one direct offer of 90,000 mt was made by
Fertiglobe in the tender.
Sources reported
the paper market for the Arab Gulf at $700-$750/mt FOB for September and
$680-$695/mt FOB for October.
Reports circulated
of a new cargo sold from an Iranian source to Brazil at $530/mt FOB. Once
freight and costs are added in, sources said the landed price would be about
$690/mt FOB. This would be about $100/mt below the current landed price in
Brazil, but not an unusual gap in pricing. Rumors circulated in Brazil this
week that a cargo selling for less than $700/mt CFR was coming from Iran.
A late-week deal
out of Egypt softened prices out of the North African country. Sources said a
deal closed at $850/mt FOB. The final destination was unclear, but sources said
it could be combined with other smaller Egyptian deals into an offer to India
under its tender.
The product could
also be headed to Europe. Sources reported the high price of natural gas in
Europe makes importing urea – even at high prices – more favorable than
producing the product. Several sales in July and August showed a growing
interest in Egyptian urea by European buyers, pushing the price higher each
day. After a few weeks rest, the price seems to have come off the $885-$900/mt
FOB deals.
Egyptian producers
have indicated they expect to see demand for their urea step up into the fourth
quarter. At that time, they also expect to see prices hit $1,000/mt FOB.
The paper market
for Egypt is not as bullish on pricing, however. Sources reported the paper
market for Egyptian urea through the end of the year is steady at $810-$840/mt
FOB.
China:
Sources said at
least 100,000 mt of Chinese urea is expected to be offered in the RCF/India
tender. Traders said the number makes sense and fits with the general view that
China will slowly release limited quantities of urea for export. However, one
trader said he was unsure if the paperwork to release the tonnage has even
started.
Traders said
offers of Chinese material in the RCF tender will be made only if there are
assurances the tons will be released to allow the trader to meet the tender’s
Oct. 21 shipping deadline.
Sources estimated
the current export price to be about $580/mt FOB for either prilled or granular
urea. However, one trader noted he has only seen prilled urea in the portside
lineups.
Brazil:
Business is slow,
as buyers and sellers spent the week speculating about the Indian tender.
Prices this week came out to $780-$800/mt CFR on limited business.
International
traders said Brazil will soon have to step up its urea purchases, and the competition
for product could see higher prices. Likewise, sources said buyers in Brazil
had the benefit of several floaters being unloaded at once. An international
trader noted the floaters are now gone and Brazil will still need more product.
Lower-priced urea
from Iran and Venezuela is not expected to mitigate any upcoming price
increases. Sources said once the discounted material arrives, it is worked into
the local distribution network where the price savings vanish.
Reports in Brazil
of a cargo coming from Iran for less than $700/mt CFR were confirmed from
international traders. The cargo reportedly sold for $530/mt FOB out of Iran.
Once freight and costs are tacked on, the landed price is estimated at $690/mt
CFR.
Deals in
Rondonopolis closed higher at $910-$955/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Some of the buying
is expected to slow down. Blenders have begun to talk about buying the cheaper
ammonium sulfate to supply the nitrogen requirements for their products.
January-August
2022 urea imports were reported at 4.5 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 4.5% from the 4.7 million mt
imported during the first eight months of 2021. The top three suppliers were
Oman with 885,000 mt, Nigeria with 820,000 mt, and Qatar with 807,000 mt.
August 2022 imports were reported at
698,000 mt, up 27% from the 551,000 mt imported in August 2021. The main
suppliers this year were Russia with 158,000 mt, accounting for 23% of urea
imports; Qatar with 130,000 mt for 19% of the import market; and Iran with
99,000 mt for 14% of the imported urea.