U.S.
Gulf:
It was a big
trading week for NOLA urea. Sources reported several transactions and a broad
price range.
The week began with barges trading as low as $465/st FOB before working their way up to $580/st FOB on Thursday for July-August business. This compares to the week-ago $470-$535/st FOB. September was reported to have occurred at $520-$585/st FOB.
With Egyptian
prices shooting up early in the week, sources said there was a huge gap between
international and NOLA prices, making U.S. prices a real bargain. Others noted
that more exports from NOLA have been going out, whittling down domestic
inventories.
Eastern
Cornbelt:
Urea prices were quoted in a broad range at $560-$610/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed early in the week. The higher numbers came later in the week amid firming NOLA barge values.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices edged higher to $550-$610/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of the week.
California:
Urea pricing in
California was steady at $710-$760/st FOB port terminals for bulk tons, while
reference prices remained as high as $900/st FOB Stockton for bagged product.
The last rail-DEL urea sales were confirmed at the $625/st level for limited
spot sales in mid-July.
Pacific Northwest:
The urea market was pegged at
$625-$630/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with the low at Rivergate, Ore.
Rail-DEL pricing fell in the $600-$640/st range in the region in late July,
depending on location.
Western Canada:
Urea prices in Western
Canada were confirmed in a broad range at C$810-$865/mt FOB and C$855-$880/mt
DEL for 3Q tons at midweek, depending on location.
India:
The IPL urea tender
awards came in higher than what the buying house requested. The tender
documents called for 500,000 mt. In the end, IPL bought 593,000 mt from eight
companies.
When the tender
closed on July 20 with prices of $517-$520/mt CFR, many in the industry doubted
IPL would be able to secure their requested tonnage. Traders estimated the best
IPL could do is about 495,000 mt. During the weekend after the tender close,
IPL secured 422,000 mt from six companies.
They then stepped
up their efforts with six more companies to at least reach 500,000 mt. The
initial effort netted 520,000 mt. Further talks took the final amount to
593,000 mt.
|
Supplier
|
Quantity
(mt)
|
Discharge
Port
|
|
Gavilon
|
100,000
|
Krishnapatnam-Mundra
|
|
Swiss Singapore
|
150,000
|
Tuticorin-Mundra-Pipavav
|
|
Sun
|
30,000
|
Paradip
|
|
Samsung
|
95,000
|
Gangavaram-Tuna
|
|
Dreymoor
|
50,000
|
Pipavav
|
|
OQ Traders
|
90,000
|
Kandla
|
|
FertCom
|
48,000
|
Jaigarh
|
|
Medallion
|
60,000
|
Rozy
|
Shipments to East
Coast ports are estimated at 185,000 mt, while the remaining 408,000 mt are
bound for West Coast deliveries. Sources estimated three cargoes totaling 120,000
mt will come from China, with another 45,000-50,000 mt coming from Indonesia.
Just about all the West Coast deliveries are expected to be sourced from the
Arab Gulf.
India still needs
1-1.5 million mt for the current application season. Sources speculated that the
next buyer will wait until all the tons awarded in the IPL tender have vessels
nominated. Once the cargoes and ships are locked in, said traders, it would
make sense to call the next tender.
Prices in the next
tender are expected to be much higher. The consensus going into the IPL tender
was that prices would be around $600/mt CFR. This level would have been
significantly lower than the previous tender, but not so low that producers
would shy away from supporting the deals. In the end, said one trader, Gavilon
was able to get its hands on cheap urea and went for the sale instead of a
large profit margin.
Sources said the
price and availability of tons for the next tender will depend on how many tons
China makes available and if the Turkey-brokered deal to provide safe passage
for Ukraine grain and Russian fertilizers works out. One trader said even if
China holds back on its urea, if Russia can get several vessels out in a public
manner, prices could remain at current levels – or even go down.
Middle East:
The urea price
from the Arab Gulf bounced back from the upper-$490s/mt FOB, based on the IPL tender,
to $545/mt FOB. Sources said a deal was closed that moved tonnage out at that
level, with higher prices expected.
Part of the upward
pressure came as European buyers moved aggressively after material to cover
shorts and to take a few long positions while prices were down. The move ran up
Egyptian prices dramatically and had a rollover impact, forcing higher prices
out of the Arab Gulf.
Egyptian producers
began reporting deals at $675/mt FOB earlier in the week. Almost immediately,
new and higher prices were coming out. By July 28, the price had hit $760/mt
FOB. Most of the tonnage was 10,000 mt or less, and all was sold to traders for
European buyers for August and September shipments.
China:
Sources said the
export urea price is pegged at $470-$480/mt FOB, against an ex-factory domestic
price of $380/mt FOB and an estimated price from the Indian tender of
$492-$495/mt FOB.
Traders said two
cargoes of 45,000 mt and one of 30,000 mt are already set aside for delivery to
India under the IPL tender. Additional tons might be shaken loose to top off
these shipments.
The nearly $100/mt
gap between the export price and the ex-factory price could change, said
traders. Producers could move to increase the price when the next Indian tender
comes along to enjoy even better income. Sources said if the price increase
does not impact the domestic price, the Chinese government will most likely not
move to severely limit exports.
Some traders are
said to be approaching producers trying to secure long positions in
anticipation of locking in a lower price before the next Indian tender is
called. One trader warned, however, that the government could move to make the
deals moot by either banning the exports or by placing so many hurdles to
complete the deal that any profit would be eaten up in extra charges.
China remains an
anchor for Indian business. Even with limited tonnage available, sources said
the Chinese price helps set the tone for the rest of the market. Likewise, as
long as China allows some tons to flow out – especially for the tenders – the
market will not face a dramatic shortage that would provide painful price
spikes.
Indonesia:
The explosion at
the Kaltim V plant shut down urea and ammonia production. The plant production
rate is quoted at 1.2 million mt/y for urea and 900,000 mt/y of ammonia. The market
will be short 100,000 mt for each month the plant is closed.
The explosion,
said traders, took the possibility of an export tender off the table. Some
smaller deals for prilled urea might pop up, said one trader, but there will
most likely not be any major offerings of new granular product for a while.
Black Sea:
The agreement
brokered by Turkey to get Ukrainian wheat to the global market included
provisions for the export of Russian fertilizers. While some Russian urea has
been shipped out of the region and out of the Russian Baltic ports, the deals
have been quiet and limited. Sources put the price of urea coming out of the
Black Sea at $437-$450/mt FOB.
The Turkish deal could open a window on Russian urea sales if it takes effect. Bloomberg reported that Turkey is confident grain exports could start as early as Aug. 1, depending on how quickly the ports are cleared from war debris and mines and when the logistics for handling the trades are set up.
Even though Russian fertilizers are not
included in the American and European sanctions against Russia, sources said
many banks and insurance companies are still hesitant to get involved. One
global trader said a banker or a trader could be caught in the middle of a bad
situation if the rules change part way through a transaction.
Sources also said many in the financial
sector are nervous about making an unintentional error in the paperwork that could
open the banker to a government investigation for sanction violations. Despite
a letter from the U.S. government that no bank or insurance company would be
held in violation of the sanction’s regime, sources said there are too many
variables for a stable deal.
Brazil:
Urea prices dropped to $540-$580/mt CFR, but
seem to be ready for a rebound. Companies have withdrawn their urea pricing
sheets as prices begin to go up around the world. New offers being discussed
could move the price to $600/mt CFR and up by next week.
The movement in pricing confirmed talk
this week that $540/mt CFR was the floor for prices. Besides the shift in
prices in Egypt and the Arab Gulf, sources were looking at the higher natural
gas prices in Europe and speculating that higher urea prices might follow.
Efforts by Turkey to get Ukrainian grain
and Russian fertilizers out of the Black Sea have not impacted the Brazilian
market yet. International traders said the first beneficiaries of Russian urea
exports would be Brazil and India. Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier
said Russia would ensure fertilizer shipments to its friends, and specifically
called out Brazil and India.
Rondonópolis reported prices at $720-$740/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Sources said there was limited trading as buyers seem to be waiting for the end
of soybean planting before discussing urea needs for the corn fields.