U.S. Gulf:
Reported NOLA TSP barge values continued to track within the prior week’s $715-$735/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The TSP market was steady at $750-$755/st FOB Cincinnati in late July.
Western Cornbelt:
TSP pricing was unchanged at $775/st FOB Caruthersville, Mo.
California:
The 16-20-0 market remained at $710/st FOB in California.
Pacific Northwest:
16-20-0 pricing was reported at $705/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest.
Eastern Cornbelt:
July phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL.
Western Cornbelt:
Phos acid prices were steady at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt for July tons.
California:
July pricing for phos acid was unchanged at $13.50-$14.00/unit rail-DEL in California, depending on supplier, with MGA referenced at $14.20/unit FOB Lathrop.
Pacific Northwest:
Thephos acid market remained $13.50/st FOB Pocatello, Idaho, and $13.50-$14.00/unit rail-DEL for July tons in the Pacific Northwest, depending on supplier.
India:
Phosphoric acid sold to buyers in India was contracted at $1,715/mt P2O5 CFR for the third quarter, an increase of $185/mt from $1,530/mt P2O5 CFR in Q1. The agreements were reported to cover cargoes originating from Jordan and potentially Tunisia.
Eastern Cornbelt:
10-34-0 fill offers were circulating at $665/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for July-August shipment, down from the last confirmed prompt business at the $800/st FOB level or higher.
Western Cornbelt:
10-34-0 prices were reported at $665/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt for July-August fill tons.
California:
The 10-34-0 market continued at $678-$683/st FOB in California, while the 11-37-0 market remained at $743/st FOB El Centro for July tons.
Pacific Northwest:
10-34-0 pricing was steady at $675/st FOB Hedges, Wash., while 11-37-0 postings remained at $725/st FOB Hedges and $705/st DEL in Idaho.
Western Canada:
10-34-0 fill pricing in Western Canada was quoted at C$935-$950/mt DEL for July-August tons, well below the last confirmed spring business in the C$1,150-$1,185/mt DEL range.
U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash barges were reported to have traded at $705/st FOB, down from the week-ago $715-$725/st FOB. Nutrien is offering NOLA equivalent barges at $735/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Nutrien on July 25 released a summer fill program for 3Q potash deliveries at $765/st FOB Midwest terminals and $735/st FOB NOLA for orders placed by close of business on Aug. 3. After that date, the company said the order book will close and new orders will be up $35/st for delivery in 4Q.
Nutrien reported “a good initial response to the program, with customers optimistic about a strong fall application season, supported by continued strength in agricultural commodity markets.”
Mosaic followed by posting potash fill tons at midweek at $760/st FOB river warehouse and $765/st FOB inland for 3Q shipments. “While we intend to keep this pricing program open at these levels through the end of day Aug. 3, prices are subject to change at any time,” the company told Green Markets. “Following conclusion of the program, we intend to raise our posted price by $35/st from current offer levels for remaining volume including 4Q.”
Western Cornbelt:
Potash fill pricing for 3Q tons was launched during the week at $760-$765/st FOB Midwest terminals for orders placed by Aug. 3. After that date, both Nutrien and Mosaic said pricing for new orders will be up $35/st.
The fill postings reflect the low end of the recent prompt pricing range in the region. Other industry sources, however, said river terminal tons were trading for as low as $740-$750/st FOB after the release of the fill program offers.
Intrepid confirmed late in the week that it is currently accepting potash fill orders on the basis of “summer fill values released in the market earlier this week.”
California:
Potash fill pricing in California was quoted at $875-$890/st FOB for 60% MOP and $895-$910/st FOB for 62%, with the upper end of the range reflecting a $35/st discount from the last confirmed high.
Pacific Northwest:
Potash fill pricing was pegged at $845-$865/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with the low for 60% and the high for 62% MOP.
Western Canada:
Sources quoted newly launched fill pricing for potash in a wide C$990-$1,050/mt range FOB Saskatchewan mines for truck tons, depending on grade and supplier, below the last prompt offers at C$1,000-$1,080/mt FOB.
Belarus:
Belarus is heard to be going up from a little over 100,000 mt of potash shipments a month “to 200,000 mt or better,” ICL President and CEO Raviv Zoller told participants at a company earnings call on July 27. Zoller said about 250,000 mt a month is achievable through various small ports and rail to China, according to information ICL has seen.
Certainly, Belarus has remained a significant supplier to China, accounting for some 25% of that nation’s monthly potash imports in the first half of 2022, according to Trade Monitor Data. China imported 4.1 million mt during the first half of the year, down 11% from the same period last year.
Belarus has been forced to seek alternative export routes since Lithuania closed its territory to Belarusian cargo transits in January due to sanctions. Zoller said the expectation was that Belarus would be able to get about a third of its potash to the market without the Lithuanian transport link.
“But they are not there yet,” he said. “So our expectation is that 6-7 million mt will stay absent from the market.”
Not surprisingly, Zoller sees global potash inventory starting to tighten, becoming “very tight” in India and “getting tighter” in China. While he sees little in the way of potash demand destruction in Brazil, the company said it is seeing about 20% demand destruction in Europe.
Brazil:
The price for MOP deliveries dropped to $950-$1,000/mt CFR. Sources said buyers ready to take their tons right away are given prices at the lower end of the scale, while those looking for deliveries further afield are being told the price is higher. The holders of MOP seem desperate to clear out warehouse space, so they are willing to offer the lower prices for immediate shipment as an incentive.
Rondonópolis MOP is pegged at $1,030-$1,035/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Like their portside counterparts, holders of MOP inland seem anxious to move out MOP to make way for replacement tons. Buyers ready to take their tons right away are given price breaks.
Tampa:
Phillips 66 restarted a 68,000 barrel/d crude distillation unit (CDU), a 30,000 barrel/d vacuum distillation unit (VDU), and a 16,000 barrel/d coker at the company’s Wood River, Ill., refinery on the morning of July 22, Genscape reported.
The PBF Energy facility at Toledo, Ohio, suffered the shutdown of a 94,000 barrel/d CDU on July 21. The outage was accompanied by significant decreases in heating and furnace stack activity. The unit was reported to have restarted successfully on the evening of July 25.
Tampa molten sulfur contracts were reported at $352/lt CFR for the third quarter. Contracts were valued at $481/lt CFR in the second quarter, a $129/lt difference.
Operable U.S. refining capacity softened for the week ending July 22, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, slipping to 92.2% from the week-ago 93.7%. The rate was above both the year-ago 91.1% and the 89.9% five-year average, however.
Daily crude inputs slipped to 16.027 million barrels/d from 16.319 million barrels/d in the prior week, a 292,000 barrel/d decline.
U.S. Gulf:
The international sulfur markets were in a freefall during the week, the result of healthy worldwide supply contrasted against a reduction in near and medium-term demand.
Mid-$100s/mt CFR values reported out of Brazil during the week would leave U.S. Gulf indications in a wide $80-$150/mt FOB range, sources said. With Brazil inventories in good shape and the international markets facing downside pressure, sources said concluded Gulf price levels would likely register below the $100/mt FOB mark should new deals be confirmed.
A Gulf-originating cargo rumored selling into China at $10/mt FOB went unconfirmed on July 28.
Brazil:
Pricing at Brazil was heard dropping to at least $185/mt CFR, falling from recent values confirmed above the $400/mt CFR mark. Sources pegged firm offer levels down to $130/mt CFR on July 28.
Sources said prodigious supply and limited warehouse space in the U.S. Gulf market were fueling the softer market, while expectations of lower-than-average phosphate production from buyers in China and North Africa added pressure to markets worldwide.
While a negligible volume of short-term import contracts were reportedly concluded early in the third quarter at $418-$425/mt CFR, buyers were reported to abstain from securing full-quarter contract tons due to the market’s current volatile conditions.
Vancouver:
With Vancouver reportedly awash in sulfur and values dropping worldwide, recent price ideas were heard pressing below the $100/mt FOB threshold for the week. Further declines were likely in the short-term, sources said.
Alberta:
While the Alberta sulfur range was supported at the week-ago top end by third-quarter Tampa molten contracts, declining price ideas at Vancouver pushed netback indications down to a wide $20-$282/mt FOB range, below the $237-$282/mt FOB reported previously.
West Coast:
West Coast solid sulfur price ideas followed Vancouver lower to $90-$100/mt FOB. Molten sulfur agreements for the third quarter were quoted in the $370-$385/lt FOB range, down from $375-$390/lt FOB in the second quarter.
China:
The continuation of export controls on phosphates produced in China have sharply reduced demand in the world’s most prolific import sulfur market, players said, potentially adding more than 1 million mt to second-half 2022 supply.
As a result, traders described a number of unsold vessels previously expected to find buyers in China. Last-done pricing was reported in the $115-$120/mt CFR range for the week, with some suggesting $100/mt CFR to be right around the corner. The market was previously noted in the $250-$280/mt CFR range.
Middle East:
While no updated August prices were reported from ADNOC or Muntajat on July 28, players expected levels to drop by more than 50% from posted $428/mt FOB prices for July.
Russia:
Maximum sulfur export quotas announced by Russia on July 21 had little discernible impact on international market conditions through July 28, sources said.
Proposed by Russia’s Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) and approved by the Economic Development Ministry, the quotas will limit the total amount of sulfur exported from Russia to 1.1 million mt between Aug. 10 and Dec. 31.
U.S. Gulf:
No changes were reported in the Gulf import sulfuric acid market, leaving pricing steady at the prior week’s $260-$270/mt CFR level.
Gulf Coast:
Sulfuric acid contracts in the Gulf Coast region were reported in the $195-$280/st DEL range for 2022. The wide range included third-quarter adjustments for applicable agreements, sources said.
Midwest:
Midwest contracts were reported even with the Gulf Coast at $195-$280/st DEL for the current contract year.
West Coast:
Annual West Coast contracts were noted in the $185-$270/st DEL range for 2022.
Brazil:
With nothing new reported in the Brazil spot market, pricing continued to fall in the $270-$280/mt CFR range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonium thiosulfate fill pricing remained at $425-$435/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt from some suppliers, down from the last confirmed prompt business at $600-$625/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonium thiosulfate fill tons were reported at $425-$435/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.
California:
The ammonium thiosulfate market was pegged at $530/st FOB in the state, reflecting the low end of the previous range.
Pacific Northwest:
The last reported prices for ammonium thiosulfate were quoted at $535-$550/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on supplier and location. No current delivered offers were confirmed in the region.
Western Canada:
Ammonium thiosulfate fill prices were confirmed at the C$485/mt DEL level for recent offers in Saskatchewan.
California:
The CAN-17 market in California remained at $490/st FOB for the last July offers, although one supplier was scheduled to adjust pricing down to the $425/st FOB level on Aug. 1.
Pacific Northwest:
The CAN-17 market remained at $450/st FOB Kennewick.
California:
AN-20 pricing was unchanged at $478/st DEL in California.
Pacific Northwest:
AN-20 pricing was unchanged at $450/st FOB Kennewick in late July.
