U.S. Gulf:
NOLA
granular urea prices were reported at $470-$535/st FOB, down from the week-ago
$515-$558/st FOB. Some said they saw an immediate drop in the NOLA market after
the Indian tender results were released showing a $200/mt drop in that market.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea prices broadened to
the $550-$590/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from the previous
week’s low of $565/st FOB, with the low end of the range confirmed out of river
terminals in Illinois and Indiana on a spot basis. The Cincinnati, Ohio, urea
market was pegged at $575-$590/st FOB, up $10/st from the prior week.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices were reported at $550-$580/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo.
Southern Plains:
Urea pricing slipped to $545-$560/st FOB
in the Southern Plains, with both the high and low reported at Catoosa/Inola,
Okla., depending on supplier. The Houston, Texas, urea market remained at the
$550/st FOB mark in mid-July.
South Central:
Urea prices narrowed to $560-$585/st FOB in
the South Central region, with the low confirmed at Convent, La., and the high
out of river terminals in Arkansas. The Memphis, Tenn., urea market was quoted
at $575-$580/st FOB at midweek.
Southeast:
Urea prices were quoted at $600-$605/st
FOB port terminals in the Southeast, up just slightly from last report. No tons
were available at Chesapeake, Va., or Savannah, Ga., in mid-July, sources said.
India:
The
IPL tender closed on July 20 with 19 companies offering about 1.8 million mt.
Sources cautioned that much of that total could be double counting. The lowest
price for both coasts came from Gavilon. It offered 55,000 mt for East Coast
delivery at $517/mt CFR, and 45,000 mt at $520/mt CFR for West Coast unloading.
The
Indian buying house announced it was interested in buying only 500,000 mt.
Sources said they expect IPL to move quickly to secure the tonnage they want
and move on to another tender soon. Awards in the tender are expected to be
made as early as Friday, July 22. The shipping deadline is Aug. 31.
|
Offering Company
|
Quantity(mt)
|
US$/mt CFR
|
Delivery Coast
|
|
Gavilon
|
55,000
|
517.00
|
ECI – L1
|
|
45,000
|
520.00
|
WCI – L1
|
|
AgriCommodities
|
25,000
|
570.81
|
WCI
|
|
Agri
Field
|
45,000
|
615.00
|
ECI
|
|
Alcagesca
|
30,000
|
700.00
|
WCI
|
|
Ameropa
|
99,500
|
593.50
|
ECI
|
|
99,500
|
598.50
|
WCI
|
|
Aries
Fert
|
45,000
|
599.97
|
ECI
|
|
45,000
|
584.97
|
WCI
|
|
Dreymoor
|
72,000
|
577.77
|
ECI
|
|
50,000
|
555.00
|
WCI
|
|
Fertiglobe
|
45,000
|
605.00
|
WCI
|
|
Fertcom
|
48,000
|
559.74
|
WCI
|
|
48,000
|
605.00
|
ECI
|
|
Keytrade
|
45,000
|
585.00
|
WCI
|
|
Koch
|
50,000
|
600.00
|
ECI
|
|
50,000
|
600.00
|
WCI
|
|
Midgulf
|
55,000
|
593.00
|
ECI
|
|
55,000
|
572.00
|
WCI
|
|
Medallion
|
50,000
|
599.00
|
WCI
|
|
OQ
Trading
|
50,000
|
572.25
|
ECI
|
|
90,000
|
555.50
|
WCI
|
|
SABIC
|
100,000
|
590.00
|
WCI
|
|
Samsung
|
100,000
|
530.00
|
ECI
|
|
45,000
|
547.00
|
WCI
|
|
Swiss
Singapore
|
100,000
|
538.88
|
WCI
|
|
100,000
|
551.00
|
ECI
|
|
Sun
International
|
29,800
|
539.90
|
ECI & WCI
|
|
FOB Offers
| | | |
|
Offering Company
|
Quantity (mt)
|
US$/mt FOB
| |
|
Fertiglobe
|
45,000
|
580.00
| |
|
PIC
|
45,000
|
560.00
| |
Going
into the tender, industry sources were unanimous in their views that India
needed 1.5 million mt of urea just to stay even with demand. When IPL announced
it would only be taking 500,000 mt, sources noted a dramatic drop in pricing
expectations. Just days before the tender closed, sources were speculating a
low price of $590-$600/mt CFR might be possible.
The
netback for the East Coast offers to China – the most likely source for these
ports – was pegged at $490-$492/mt FOB. The netback to the Arab Gulf for the
West Coast orders was calculated at $495-$500/mt FOB.
If
Russian material does indeed make an appearance, sources said it would most
likely come from the Baltic ports for discharge at a West Coast port. The
estimated netback for these cargoes was put at $470/mt FOB. If anything comes
out of the Black Sea, the netback would be $470-$475/mt FOB.
The
offers from the two producers at $560/mt and $580/mt FOB seemed to some to be
an attempt to hold the line on prices. Going into the tender, there were
reports of deals at $580-$585/mt FOB with a softening trend at hand. The
producers seemed to be ready to draw the line at $560/mt FOB. With an average
West Coast price of $580/mt CFR for a netback to the Arab Gulf in the
mid-$550s/mt FOB, however, it was clear the price was going to come down more
than producers seemed to want.
The
Gavilon offer, said one trader, could make it difficult for some of the
offering companies to match their prices. Sources estimated that Samsung and
Swiss Singapore might be able to match the Gavilon price of $517/mt CFR for the
East Coast, giving IPL a total of 255,000 mt. The same two companies might also
stretch to meet the West Coast price of $520/mt CFR for an additional 190,000
mt. That would give IPL 445,000 mt.
One
trader said Dreymoor, with the fourth-lowest offer for the West Coast, might be
able to drop its price from $555/mt CFR to meet the Gavilon price. That would
bring IPL to 495,000 mt, close to its half-million mark.
The
bulk of the tonnage is expected to come from the Arab Gulf, up to three cargoes
from China, and possibly a load or two from Russia. Once the awards are issued,
sources expect the winners to quickly nominate vessels for their allotted tons.
Urea from China especially will need to be carefully planned so that the ships
arrive in time to load the limited urea available for export under the strict
rules set by the Chinese government.
Sources
said once the vessels are nominated and the tonnage is committed for each ship,
another tender may be called. In the past, Indian companies have called quick,
back-to-back tenders when their need was evident. Traders said the country will
still need another 1 million mt for this application season, so rapid-fire
tenders would make sense.
The
downside for repeated tenders, said one trader, is that each succeeding one
will be more expensive than the previous one. Additionally, the further in the
third and fourth quarter the tenders go, India will begin competing with other
major buyers such as the U.S. and Brazil.
Pakistan:
TCP
secured 200,000 mt from China, as instructed by the Pakistan government in late
June. The deal was a government-to-government arrangement that came out to
Pakistan paying $500/mt CFR with 90 days credit.
Reduced
output by the Pakistan urea manufacturers due to limited natural gas resources
led the government to authorize importing urea. The government panel tasked
with deciding what steps to take initially wanted a combination of a public
tender and government negotiations with China. In the end, they opted for
government relations to bring in the urea they needed. Sources said had TCP
called a tender at the time the option was under discussion, they would have
paid much more than what they are paying now.
Sri
Lanka:
India
continues to send Sri Lanka urea under a loan guarantee program. Earlier in
July 44,000 mt of urea was sent to the impoverished country. Another 22,000 mt
is set for delivery later this month.
Bangladesh:
A
gas shortage in Bangladesh has caused a curtailment of urea production.
Chittagong Urea Fertilizer Ltd. was forced to close its 561,000 mt/y facility
because of a lack of natural gas. At least one other plant was also forced to
close for the same reason earlier this month.
China:
Exports
from China remain limited due to government restrictions. The buildup of
reserves as a result of the government action has played out in lower domestic
prices. Sources said the ex-factory price was quoted at $375-$380/mt against a
global market closer to $500/mt FOB.
Sources
said no more than three tons of urea will be available to service the Indian
tender. The estimated netback from the lowest East Coast offer in the tender
put the price at $492-$495/mt FOB. Prior to the closing of the Indian tender,
sources had been speculating the export price might be closer to $520-$530/mt
FOB.
Urea
exports from China for the first half of 2022 were reported at 724,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 70% from the
2.4 million mt exported during the same period in 2021. The main buyers were
India with 174,000 mt, South Korea with 169,000 mt, and Pakistan with 100,000
mt. The Pakistan tons were from a purchase agreement done before the more
recent deal of 200,000 mt.
Second-quarter
sales were also way down at 421,000 mt, a 74% drop from the 1.6 million
exported in April-June 2021. June 2022 exports were reported at 186,000 mt,
down from the 482,000 mt sent in June 2021. India accounted for almost half of
the purchases at 87,000 mt. South Korea took 31,000 mt and Mozambique took
25,000 mt, rounding off the top three buyers. These three countries accounted
for 77% of China’s June 2022 export sales.
Black
Sea:
There
are expectations that at least one cargo of Russian material will be included
in the IPL/India tender awards. If so, sources said it would most likely come
out of a Baltic port rather than any of the Black Sea facilities.
Using
the East Coast India tender price of $517/mt CFR, sources calculated that the
Black Sea price would be $470-$475/mt FOB, if any product could come out of the
war torn area. Some urea could come out of Georgia, allowing the vessel to
remain in the southern reaches of the Black Sea, away from the war zone.
Middle
East:
Producers
offered prices of $560/mt FOB and $580/mt FOB in the IPL tender after deals were
reported the previous week at $585/mt FOB and as the paper market called the
Arab Gulf price for July at $570-$580/mt FOB.
However,
the netback from the lowest West Coast offered price in the Indian tender was
calculated back to $495-$500/mt FOB. If this price holds, it would be the first
time since September 2021 that the Middle East granular price was below
$500/mt.
Egyptian
producers are remaining quiet while the impact of the Indian tender gets worked
out. Sources said it is unlikely that any Egyptian material was offered into
the Indian tender. The last public business out of Egypt was at $730/mt FOB for
early July shipment. Even the paper market is still holding to this level,
quoting July shipments at $720-$740/mt FOB and $685-$695/mt FOB for August
deals.
A
source calculated what the netback would be if tons were offered for delivery
to India’s West Coast. He estimated the price in the $480s/mt FOB, a level
everyone agrees has not been done out of Egypt for some time.
Iranian
urea exports for the first half of the year were reported at 2.2 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is up 29% from
the 1.7 million mt exported during the same period in 2021. The top five buyers
in the first semester were Turkey with 741,000 mt, South Africa with 267,000 mt,
Nigeria with 194,000 mt, the United Arab Emirates with 191,000 mt, and Oman with
130,000 mt.
Sources
have questioned why major urea producers such as Nigeria, the UAE, and Oman are
such big buyers of Iranian urea. The most commonly heard consideration is that
the urea was placed in warehouses in those countries by traders who then
re-exported the product.
Second-quarter
2022 exports were reported at 1.3 million mt, up 48% from the 886,000 mt
exported in April-June 2021. June 2022 exports were reported at 437,000 mt, up
marginally from the 417,000 mt exported during June 2021.
South
Korea:
Urea
imports for the first half of the year were reported at 561,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is a 15%
increase from the 489,000 mt imported during the first semester of 2021.
April-June
2022 imports were reported at 234,000 mt, up marginally from the 226,000 mt
imported during the second quarter of 2021. June 2022 imports were reported at
36,000 mt – with 33,000 mt coming from China – compared to the 58,000 mt imported
during June 2021.
Indonesia:
Sources
expect to see a selling tender any day. Reportedly, the paperwork to allow
exports in the second half of the year is still winding its way through the
Indonesian government bureaucracy. Once the tender is called, sources expect to
see a softening of prices as a result of the low numbers in the Indian tender.
January-May
2022 exports were reported at 617,000 mt by Trade
Data Monitor, down 22% from the 759,000 mt exported during the first five
months of 2021.
May
2022 exports were reported at 146,000 mt, down from the 187,000 mt exported
during May 2021. The top two buyers were China and Peru, which received
slightly more than half of exported urea during May 2022. Neither country
appeared on the buying list in May 2021 nor in May 2020. Australia came in for
the first time in 2022 with a purchase of 30,000 mt in May, representing about
20% of the exported Indonesian urea for that month.
Brazil:
Talk
of softer prices continued through the week. Sources reported deals done at
$590-$630/mt CFR, but with a lot more interest being expressed at $580/mt CFR.
What was clear to sources, however, was that no matter the price, no one was
talking about large quantities. The limited demand for major purchases
continues to put downward pressure on pricing.
Rondonópolis saw a slight tightening in its price to $730-$770/mt
FOB ex-warehouse.