U.S. Gulf:

Sources quoted NOLA potash barges in the $775-$815/st FOB range, slipping from the week-ago $775-$820/st FOB. Domestic availability continued to account for the low end, while tons earmarked for export were expected closer to $810-$815/st FOB. A $740/st FOB barge rumored trading from NOLA went unconfirmed on May 5.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt was pegged at $790-$815/st FOB, depending on location, down $5-$10/st from the prior week, with the low confirmed in Illinois on a spot basis. The Cincinnati potash market was pegged at $805-$815/st FOB in early May.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash pricing slipped to $785-$815/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending in location, down $5-$10/st from last report. Sources reported the high end of the range in the Iowa market, while St. Louis pricing had reportedly slipped to $785-$795/st FOB in early May.

California:

Potash remained at $875-$895/st FOB in California for 2Q tons, with the low reported for 60 percent MOP and the high for 62 percent.

Pacific Northwest:

Potash pricing in the Pacific Northwest remained at $880/st FOB or DEL for 60 percent MOP and $900/st FOB or DEL for 62 percent MOP. The last reference prices from Intrepid FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, included $850/st for 60 percent white standard and $855/st for 60 percent white granular.

Western Canada:

Sources quoted truck pricing for potash in the C$1,010-$1,020/mt range FOB Saskatchewan mines, depending on grade.

Belarus/Russia:

The Mosaic Co. sees the absence of Belarus and Russian potash tons on the global market as “nearly impossible to replace,” and expects about 8 million mt of potash exports “being lost” from Belarus and around 2 million mt from Russia this year.

That means yearly totals from the two countries has already been shipped, or at least the vast majority of it, Mosaic President and CEO Joc O’Rourke told participants at a company earnings call on May 3.

Responding to an analyst’s question, O’Rourke said Mosaic had not been able to track down any Belarus Potash Co. (BPC) tons on ocean-borne freight except tons that were exported earlier. He added that there was also some rail exports from Belarus via “a very circuitous route” through to China, but he believed even that had dried up completely.

Nutrien believes Belarusian potash supplies to the global market will be down around 6-8 million mt this year, and Russian potash tons will be down 2-6 million mt this year, Nutrien Interim President and CEO Ken Seitz told participants at a company earnings call on May 3.

Seitz noted that Russia, unlike Belarus, does have some access to markets, citing as an example the tons that Russia rails into China, which he expects to continue through 2022. He estimated this tonnage at around 1.5 million mt this year, and said another outlet for Russian potash is its own domestic demand, which he said is being satisfied.

What the industry is seeing, however, is an impact across export markets “because Russia does need access via tidewater,” Seitz said, noting that “financial sanctions and other restrictions have constrained export shipments.” Nutrien currently sees about 0.5 million mt/month of potash coming out of Russia.

In terms of the new supply contracts with China, O’Rourke confirmed that Mosaic has not seen Chinese buyers renew supply contracts with Belarus or seaborne supply contracts with Russia, but he confirmed that Russian potash continues to go by rail into China.

Regarding India, O’Rourke said Russian phosphates are making their way to India, and the assumption is Russia will also try to move potash to India if it is looking for places to sell that product.

Nigeria:

Nigeria is reported to have bought “emergency” supplies of Canadian potash last month after the country was unable to secure potash from Russia due to the impact of sanctions, according to a report by All Africa Global Media, citing the Managing Director and CEO of Nigeria’s Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), Uche Orji.

NSIA negotiates imports of fertilizer raw materials as part of the Nigerian government’s program to expand the country’s capacity to produce fertilizer blends. Orji said Russia was unable to deliver so NSIA bought spot tons from traders in Canada, according to the report.

He did not comment on prices, but disclosed that Nigeria bought three cargoes of Canadian potash, which should arrive in June, “hopefully just in time for the planting season, which starts as early as end-May in some parts of the country.”

NSIA is continuing discussions to see if a Russian delivery can still be made, according to the report. Citing NSIA, the report said Nigeria currently has enough potash inventories to cover 40 percent of blending demand.

Russia’s Uralkali has been Nigeria’s exclusive potash supplier since 2019, and the country normally takes five Russian cargoes a year, Orji reportedly said. According to the Federal Customs Service of Russia via Trade Data Monitor, Russia exported 175,102 mt of potash to Nigeria in 2021.

Northwest Europe:

Granular potash prices have moved up amid tight supply in the absence of Belarusian and Russian tons.

India:

Sources reported that National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) did not receive any offers in its Request for Proposals (RFP) for entering into a long-term agreement/MOU with producers for the supply of potash during FY2022/23. The RFP closed on April 26 (GM April 22, p. 15). NFL was looking for firm quantities of 200,000 mt of standard pink/red potash.

No news has been reported on RCF’s tender for 105,000 mt of white/pink standard potash, which also closed on April 26. The buyer had extended the closing date after the earlier close of April 19 failed to attract any offers.

Thailand:

MOP imports in the first quarter of the year were reported at 170,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This represents a drop of 20 percent from the 213,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers so far this year were Canada with 55,000 mt and Belarus with 47,000 mt.

March 2022 imports were up 72 percent, to 107,000 mt from the 62,000 mt imported in March 2021. Canada accounted for 50 percent of the imports in March 2022 with 53,000 mt, and Belarus came in with 26 percent of the imports at 28,000 mt.

Brazil:

Prices of MOP appear to have begun a downward trend, with sources reporting deals that closed at $1,150-$1,220/mt CFR. As the week ended there were additional reports that buyers were pressing hard for $1,110/mt CFR, with every expectation of getting it.

The Rondonópolis market spread widened to $1,250-$1m350/mt FOB ex-warehouse in a move that seems to be more a fluctuation than a trend. Rural powers said they expect to see further drops in MOP prices, but there is still uncertainty in the supply chain because of the sanctions against Russia and Belarus.