JSC Belarusian
Potash Co. (BPC) notified customers that Belarus producer Belaruskali OAO on
Feb. 16 told the company that force
majeure conditions were forced upon it after it could not find alternatives
to railing product to the Lithuanian port of Klaipėda, according to reliable
sources, citing a notice from BPC.
While widely
anticipated by most market participants since Lithuania halted the transit of
Belarusian potash via its territory at midnight on Jan. 31, the Belarusian
declaration of force majeure has
ratcheted up global supply anxieties that already were being driven by U.S. and
E.U. sanctions on Belarus, pushing soaring global potash prices still higher.
Belarus potash
typically accounts for around 15 percent of global potash exports, but is now effectively
out of the market.
This week,
Canpotex settled new standard potash supply contracts through the end of this
year with India’s biggest potash importer, Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL), and
China’s potash buying committee at $590/mt CFR – a price hike on last year’s
contract prices of $145-$310/mt CFR and a $343/mt CFR, respectively (see
Markets).
ICL Ltd. also has
agreed to the same price for standard potash deliveries to its customers in
China for deliveries to the end of this year.
“Global potash contracts have settled at the highest price since 2008, ensuring another year of pricey inputs for farmers and strong earnings for producers,” said Green Markets Research Director Alexis Maxwell.
“U.S.
sanctions on Belarus eliminated a key competitor – about 15 percent of the
global traded market – for publicly traded potash producers Nutrien, ICL, and
K+S, with no readily available alternative supplier waiting in the wings,”
she said.
Last year, BPC was
the first producer to sign new contracts with China and India.
BPC, in a
statement sent by the company to its Brazilian customers on Feb. 16, said it
won’t be able to meet contracts due to sanctions imposed on Belarus by the E.U.
and the U.S., but that it was doing “what’s possible to find a solution to
the supply disruption, “according to a Bloomberg
report, citing Brazilian newspaper Valor
Economico.
Brazilian farmers
already are facing shortages of key fertilizer nutrients.
Russian fertilizer
producers have said they will double their supplies to the country, according
to a Reuters report, citing Brazilian
President Jair Bolsonaro after he had attended a Russian-Brazilian business
conference in Moscow on Feb. 16.
Brazil depends on imports for 95 percent of its potash, last year importing some 12.8 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. Of this total, 2.4 million mt, or some 19 percent, came from Belarus.
Nutrien Ltd.
Interim President and CEO Ken Seitz told analysts at a company earnings call on
Feb. 17 that with what Nutrien was seeing in the market “it is absolutely
the case that some traditional BPC customers are inquiring about volumes, and
it is also the case we are seeing less BPC volumes shipping at the
moment.”
Seitz said Nutrien
plans to boost its own potash sales volumes to 13.7-14.3 million in 2022, up
from 2021’s 13.6 million mt. He said it may produce another 500,000 mt in the
second-half if demand warrants. However, he said the company would only proceed
with a 5 million mt brownfield expansion if it sees prolonged challenges in
Belarus. Nutrien puts current capacity at 18 million mt.
BMO Capital last
week warned that Belarusian potash mines may soon cease production after the
firm spoke with various potash suppliers, according to a report in real-time
financial news publisher The Fly (GM Feb. 11, p. 1). BMO Capital analyst
Joel Jackson had understood the last shipment from the potash mines in Belarus
to Lithuania was over a week previous and that he would “not be surprised
to see the Belarusian potash mines” stopping production “any
day.”
The Lithuanian
government decision to terminate Lithuanian state-owned railway Lietuvos
Geležinkeliai’s (LTG) contract to transport Belarusian potash to Klaipėda port
effectively blocked the export shipment of around 90 percent of Belarus’ potash
(GM Jan. 14, p. 1). Lithuania’s
decision was taken due to “national security concerns.”
There were reports late this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the building of a new port near St Petersburg to handle Belarusian potash shipments, according to a Bloomberg report, citing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a televised joint news conference in Moscow on Feb. 18.
According to Lukashenko, Belarus expects to start loading “millions” of tons of cargo at the new port in 12-18 months. He said Belarus may not renew potash shipments via Lithuania and Ukraine.
There were also reports
that Russia plans to start rail shipments of fertilizers from Belarus this year,
according to an Interfax report,
citing Russian Deputy Transport Minister Dmitry Zverev. The minister was
speaking at a meeting of the State Duma Energy Committee on Feb. 17, convened
as part of a discussion on a bill concerning ship-or-pay contracts for coal
shipments to ports in the Far East.
According to the report, Zverev said such terms could be applied to transit freight from Belarus. He pointed to the fact that Belarus signed ship-or-pay contracts with Russian railways and Russian seaports in February 2020 for oil freight. Starting this year, there will additional types of freight from Belarus, including fertilizers, he said.
According to the minister, it will be possible to receive an additional 2.15 million mt for the Russian railways and the same volumes for the ports this year. However, even if it proves to be feasible, this is just a fifth of the 11 million mt/y or so of potash that Belarus previously transported via Lithuanian railways via Klaipėda port.
Certainly, market
participants and analysts have questioned whether sufficient spare
transshipment capacity is, and can be, made available at Russian ports to
handle an additional 10-12 million mt/y of Belarusian potash.
Belarusian
Minister of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Makei this week had claimed agreements had
been reached with Russia for Belarus to use Russian ports for the transshipment
of potash and other Belarusian cargo, according to a BelTA report, citing comments made by the minister at a press
conference in Minsk on Feb. 16.
Like Russia’s
Deputy Transport Minister, Makei did not specify through which Russian ports Belarusian
potash would be shipped. But previous statements coming out of Belarus have
cited the port of St Petersburg and ports in Russia’s Leningrad region, as well
as the port of Murmansk. Leningrad region ports include the Baltic Sea ports of
Ust-Luga and Primorsk.
However, Russian
Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov last week was cited as saying Belarus could
begin transshipping potash this year through the Russian port of St. Petersburg
and ports in Russia’s Leningrad region, according to an Interfax report.
Responding to an
analyst’s question about the ability of Belarus calling to ship out of the
Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga and other Russian ports at a company earnings
call on Feb. 17, Seitz said Nutrien had looked closely at the possibility, and
he believes the options are limited for BPC getting access to
“tidewater” at the present time.
He noted the
Russian port of St Petersburg was the closest in distance to Belarus, but that
there was not a lot of spare transshipment capacity at the port, given the
amount of cargo moving through it.
Regarding the more
northern port of Murmansk in Russia’s Leningrad region, which also has been
cited as a potential option for Belarus potash transshipment, Seitz reminded that
the port is more than 2,000 km from Belarusian potash production, so that option
“obviously has challenges,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ukraine
was set to introduce temporary restrictions on the transit of Belarusian potash
through its territory to CIS and Baltic countries from Feb. 16, according to a
report by Belarus-based pro-democracy and pro-human rights news site Charter97, citing the website of
Ukraine’s State Administration of Railway Transport.
According to the
report, the Belarusian potash transported through Ukraine is mainly to Turkey,
Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Austria. However, the
Belarusian potash volumes transported via Ukraine are understood to be small.
While the
restrictions are described as “temporary,” the railway company did
not indicate how long they would last. Ukraine last week was reported to have
refused to participate in the export of Belarusian potash, according to an Interfax report.