U.S.
Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous
ammonia for February remained at $1,135/mt CFR.
Correction: Text in the U.S. Gulf/Tampa ammonia
section last week should have read: Market players said the jury is still out
for March, noting that the $20/mt increase for February was relatively small
compared to the leaps posted in prior months.
U.S. Imports:
December ammonia
imports were off 22.2 percent, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, to 156,534
st from 201,272 st in the prior year. Imports firmed 11.0 percent for
July-December, however, to 1.27 million st from the year-ago 1.14 million st.
U.S.
Exports:
Ammonia exports
were off 46.0 percent in July-December, to 187,946 st from the year-ago 348,136
st. Exports were noted at 7,529 st for December, falling 89.2 percent from
December 2020 exports of 69,416 st.
Eastern
Cornbelt:
The ammonia market
was unchanged at $1,300-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern
Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low confirmed
for prompt tons in Illinois and the high reported in Ohio for both prompt and
spring prepay pricing. Most prepay offers in Illinois and Indiana remained in
the $1,375-$1,385/st FOB range.
Western
Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing
was steady at $1,350-$1,395/st FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending
on location and time of shipment, with the bulk of spring prepay offers pegged
in the $1,365-$1,395/st FOB range in the region.
California:
The anhydrous
ammonia market firmed to $1,185/st DEL in California on Feb. 1, up $100/st from
the previous Calamco posting. The aqua ammonia market was quoted at
$306-$316/st FOB in the state as of Feb. 1, up from the prior low of $281/st
FOB.
Pacific
Northwest:
The ammonia market
remained at $1,350-$1,400/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, with the low
reported in Washington for prompt truck tons and the high for spring pricing
offers.
The aqua ammonia
market was unchanged at $342/st FOB for spring tons in the region.
Western
Canada:
The ammonia market
in Western Canada was steady at C$2,000-$2,100/mt DEL for the last reported
spring pricing offers, depending on location and supplier.
Black Sea:
No spot business
was done this week, but sources said some extra tons may be available out of
Yuzhnyy later in February. Reportedly, Rassosh will have 10,000-20,000 mt for
export.
Once the Rassosh
material is made available, sources expect to see prices fall from the current
$1,110-$1,120/mt FOB. How far down is the question. Using calculations from
potential deals in Europe, the price could go as low as $800/mt FOB. However,
the most likely scenario, said one trader, is that the price will be a bit
above or below $1,000/mt FOB. Another trader said the drop could as low as
$900/mt FOB.
Sources reported
there is still some concern about market conditions because of the tensions
between Ukraine and Russia. The presence of Russian naval vessels in the Black
Sea could hamper some trade, Ukrainian officials told the press. Any land
action could also stop the flow of ammonia to Yuzhnyy.
For now, sources
in Europe are wary of the situation but plan to move out tons already under
contract, and to be prepared to take the product from Rossosh when it is
available.
Middle East:
Availability in
the area has taken a hit. Sources reported a shutdown at Muntajat in Qatar. At
the same time, Ma’aden announced it would not be shipping any ammonia from its
new facility until the third quarter.
No details of the
Muntajat shutdown were available, sources said. The first indication of a
problem, said one trader, came when Muntajat offered for lease a chartered
vessel that was scheduled to load a cargo later this month.
The cutback may
not be serious. Sources said if the company expected output to be reduced for a
long time it would be trying to arrange swaps with other producers to ensure
all contracts get covered. So far there is no indication that swaps are under
discussion.
The Ma’aden
situation means vessels chartered by the company will be offered to other
users. Sources noted that the issues with production in the area have left the
region long on transportation. The situation was expected to be corrected when
Ma’aden came online. However, the longer it takes for Ma’aden to start
exporting means vessels charted by Ma’aden will be offered to other producers
or buyers.
The lack of any
spot business left the public price steady at $900/mt FOB. However, the contract
price is said to be closer to $850-$860/mt FOB.
India:
Demand seems to
have slowed down to just taking what was contracted instead of looking for
additional product. Sources said the lack of inquiries from the industrial and
fertilizer sectors is an indication that supplies are sufficient for now.
That may change
soon if DAP producers follow the urging of the Indian government to step up DAP
production. The imported ammonia is meeting the current needs, said sources,
but increasing production will require more ammonia. Buyers will have to step
into the spot market to fill those needs.
Northwest Europe:
The price of
$1,180-$1,250/mt C&F has not yet moved. Sources said the lower gas prices
in Europe and the potential of lower prices in Yuzhnyy should soon be enough to
finish what the dip in February Baltic prices started, and push the price down.
The lower gas
prices in Europe have now changed the calculations about running plants.
Sources said the cost of producing ammonia has now dropped to about $900/mt from
$1,000/mt just a week ago. The lower price will encourage producers to stay
online, and for buyers to continue to push against suppliers in the Baltic and
Black Seas.
Brazil:
Ammonia imports
for January 2022 were reported at 24,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. This amount is down 54 percent from the 53,000
mt imported in January 2021. The sole source of ammonia in January was
Trinidad.
The January 2022
imports were not much different from imports during the previous three months. October,
November, and December showed imports of 33,000 mt, 27,000 mt, and 30,000 mt,
respectively.