Western Cornbelt:
The ammonium nitrate market in the Western Cornbelt continued to be quoted at $700-$730/st FOB regional terminals for prompt or prepay, with the high confirmed in Missouri for the last prepay offers.
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Ammonium Sulfate
U.S. Gulf:
The last done NOLA ammonium sulfate business continued to be put at the $585/st FOB mark, with price ideas still higher for the next round of business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Granular ammonium sulfate prices remained at $610-$630/st FOB range, depending on location, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati. Pricing in Michigan reportedly firmed to $655-$680/st FOB, depending on location and time of shipment.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonium sulfate pricing was reported at $605-$630/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.
Northern Plains:
Granular ammonium sulfate prices firmed to $625-$630/st FOB St. Paul and $635/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa, with delivered pricing in North Dakota pegged at $625/st for 1Q tons and up to $645/st DEL for 2Q, up $10-$15/st from last report.
Northeast:
The granular ammonium sulfate market was quoted at a firm $585/st FOB Lancaster, Pa., for the last offers. The reference price FOB Hopewell, Va., remained at the $550/st level.
Eastern Canada:
Sources reported significantly higher prices for ammonium sulfate in Eastern Canada in late January. The market firmed to C$880-$905/mt FOB in the region, up from C$745-$850/mt FOB in early January.
China:
There was talk this week of ammonium sulfate prices at $300-$310/mt FOB, but no sales at that level were reported. Shipments this week were of material purchased earlier in the $330s/mt and $340s/mt FOB for caprolactam-grade amsul.
Supplies are expected to dwindle in February. Plants are expected to close as workers take time off to celebrate the Lunar New Year. Immediately after those celebrations, China will host the Winter Olympics. The central government has instructed most industries to shut down or reduce output for the duration of the games in order to reduce possible air pollution.
Brazil:
The weakening urea market is having an impact on the landed price of granular ammonium sulfate in Brazil. Sources said blenders no longer need to use amsul as a substitute for urea in their production. Prices at the ports have come off significantly to $315-$450/mt CFR.
With limited demand for any fertilizers inland, sources said the price for ammonium sulfate in Rondonopolis is holding steady at $670/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Thailand:
Ammonium sulfate imports for 2021 were reported at 456,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 58 percent from 2020 imports of 289,000 mt.The main supplier in 2021 was China with 382,000 mt, accounting for 84 percent of the imported amsul market. The second-largest supplier was South Korea with 55,000 mt, for 12 percent of the market.
December 2021 imports were reported at 31,000 mt, up dramatically from the 3,000 mt imported in December 2020. Chinese suppliers dominated the market with 28,000 mt in December 2021.
DAP/MAP
Central Florida:
DAP trucks loading from Central Florida were posted at $785/st FOB for the week, unchanged from the prior report. Sources called truck-loaded MAP even with DAP at $785/st FOB, also steady from one week earlier.
No changes were reported out of the North Florida MAP truck market, with posted prices holding at $780/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf:
NOLA DAP barge prices continued to push lower during the week, market players indicated.
Barges loading in January and February were reported at a $650/st FOB low, down from the week-ago $675/st FOB bottom. Sources quoted a $675/st FOB top for the Jan. 21-27 trading week for nearby loading, while March physical barge trades were pegged at $665/st FOB.
NOLA MAP fared better, rising $5/st from the week-ago $690/st FOB floor to $695/st FOB. Sources reported the weekly top at $705/st FOB, with the lion’s share of business heard transacting in the $695-$698/st FOB range.
The nearby NOLA DAP barge market was reported in a wide $650-$675/st FOB range for the period, falling from $675-$710/st FOB the week before. MAP barges were quoted at $695-$705/st FOB, shifting from $690-$730/st FOB at last report.
U.S. Exports:
Based on the last reported trades, phosphates exported from the U.S. Gulf continued to be priced at $810/mt FOB, unchanged from one week earlier.
Eastern Cornbelt:
A steadily weakening NOLA barge market contributed to another drop in DAP prices in the Eastern Cornbelt in late January. Sources pegged the terminal market at $740-$760/st FOB in the region, down from the prior week’s $755-$775/st FOB range, with the lower end reported at Cincinnati.
MAP prices also slipped in the Eastern Cornbelt. Terminal pricing was quoted at $770-$790/st FOB in the region, down from $785-$795/st FOB the week before, with the Cincinnati market pegged in the $770-$780/st FOB range. Michigan sources reported the Toledo MAP market at the $820/st FOB level for prompt tons.
Western Cornbelt:
The DAP market slipped to $725-$750/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down another $10-$25/st from last report, with MAP reportedly falling to $750-$775/st FOB, depending on location. Sources reported Catoosa/Inola pricing down to $710-$715/st FOB for DAP and $740-$750/st FOB for MAP as the week progressed.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing slipped to a broad $740-$760/st FOB St. Paul during the week, with MAP quoted at the $760-$790/st FOB level at that location in late January.
Northeast:
Phosphate pricing FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, was quoted at $765/st for DAP and $795/st for MAP, down $20-$25/st from last report. The upper end of the regional MAP market in the Northeast was pegged at the $815/st level FOB Fairless Hills in late January.
Eastern Canada:
The MAP market was steady at C$1,160-$1,220/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location. DAP remained at C$1,180/mt FOB Montreal, also unchanged from last report.
Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabia phosphate values were heard firming to the $885-$905/mt FOB range, rising from $880-$900/mt FOB reported previously.
China:
Sources said talks between traders and DAP producers are being put on hold until late February. The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, followed by shutdowns urged by the government during the Winter Olympics, will provide few opportunities to talk about securing cargo for shipment in April, when the export ban is lifted.
A purchase of 100,000 mt of DAP by RCF/India from OCP showed a calculated price to China in the $890s/mt FOB. Sources said this level is not reflective of the domestic price, which is reportedly much lower. The buildup of DAP and MAP reserves in China because of the export ban has driven down prices.
Sources said once February passes, a few tons might be allowed to leave before the April opening. These cargoes are reportedly related to existing long-term deals.
India:
A DAP tender by RCF for 100,000 mt closed on Jan. 24, with OCP/Morocco winning. The tender called for two 50,000 mt shipments, one to a West Coast port and one to an East Coast port.
The winning price was $925/mt CFR for West Coast delivery and $929/mt CFR for East Coast delivery.The prices reflect a steady increase that India is being forced to pay for its phosphate needs.
Brazil:
Prices for MAP in Brazil tightened to $860-$920/mt CFR as the market stabilized.
The seasonal drop in demand is not surprising to industry watchers. Farmers are watching closely where prices for their 2022/23 crops might go before committing to any large-scale purchases. Some are also keeping an eye on what will happen once China begins exporting material in April. Many seem to be hoping for softer prices.
While the MAP price spread in Rondonopolis widened, sources said the movement is not significant. The price is now put at $940-$1,043/mt FOB ex-warehouse, reflecting a slight increase on the upper end and a decrease on the lower end.
TSP
U.S. Gulf:
While sources continued to quote last-done NOLA TSP barges at $670/st FOB, softening observed in the broader NOLA phosphate market was likely to pressure the next round of business significantly lower, sources said, citing indications in the $630s/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
TSP pricing remained at $720-$725/st FOB for the last confirmed offers in the Western Cornbelt.
Phosphoric Acid
Eastern Cornbelt:
The phos acid market remained at January pricing levels of $16.20/unit rail-DEL in Illinois and $16.35/unit rail-DEL in Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
Phos acid prices were quoted at $16.10/unit in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri for January tons.
Northern Plains:
Phos acid prices for January shipments remained at $16.20/unit rail-DEL in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and $16.35/unit rail-DEL in the Dakotas.
India:
The Q4 2021 India phosphoric acid contract was reported at $1,330/mt P2O5 CFR, up $170/mt from $1,160/mt CFR in the prior period. The range covered pricing on tons loading both from Morocco and North America. Values were widely expected to increase in the first quarter.
Ammonium Polyphosphate
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources continued to report no current pricing for 10-34-0 in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt:
The 10-34-0 market remained at $810-$825/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt for the last reported offers.
Northern Plains:
Sources reported new and very limited 10-34-0 offers climbing to the $900-$920/st FOB range in the Northern Plains for spring tons.
Northeast:
The 10-34-0 market in upstate New York had reportedly firmed to $900/st FOB, up $50/st from last report.
Muriate of Potash
U.S. Gulf:
While some sellers continued to test the $670-$675/st FOB range with no success, by later in the week $640-$645/st FOB was on the table. Inland prices, which have been drifting lower despite a slow but stable NOLA market, continued to move down $5-$10/st FOB at river terminals.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The potash market had reportedly slipped to $690-$710/st FOB in the region, down $10/st from last report. A broad range of pricing was reported in Michigan, from a low of sub-$700/st to a high of $760/st FOB, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash pricing dropped to $690-$710/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in late January, with the low reported at St. Louis.
Northern Plains:
The potash market FOB St. Paul was quoted at $705-$720/st FOB for 1Q tons. The last prices FOB Saskatchewan mines were reported at $680-$695/st FOB after netbacks, depending on grade and destination
Northeast:
Potash pricing was pegged at $720-$750/st FOB in the Northeast for 1Q tons, with the upper end reported at Lancaster for the last offers.
Eastern Canada:
Potash pricing for 1Q remained at C$990-$1,030/mt FOB regional warehouses in Eastern Canada, steady from last report.
Canpotex reported that it is fully committed on volumes for potash sales through March 31, 2022. This is due to continued strong demand and solid fundamentals for agricultural commodities in key offshore markets, the Canadian potash export joint venture said in a Jan. 26 statement.
India:
As previously reported,RCF closed a tender on Jan. 28 for the supply of 170,000 mt of bulk potash in four shipments in February and March (GM Jan. 21, p. 15).
Brazil:
The landed price for MOP in Brazil came down a bit to $750-$805/mt CFR, despite nervousness about possibly not being able to import Belarus potash after April 1 due to U.S. government sanctions, and a report from Canpotex that it is sold out through March.
Reportedly, companies holding material have been aggressive in trying to sell their product to ease a current tight storage situation.
The range in Rondonopolis widened as some buyers took advantage of deals and some sellers took advantage of pocket shortages. Sources put the price at $855-$930/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Thailand:
MOP imports for 2021 were reported at 963,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 29 percent from 2020 imports of 746,000 mt.
The main supplier was Canada with 370,000 mt, taking 38 percent of the MOP import market. Belarus sold 307,000 mt for 32 percent of the market. This number is higher than in 2020, when Belarus sold 193,000 mt and controlled 26 percent of the market. Israel rounded out the top three sellers with 99,000 mt, for 10 percent of the 2021 MOP import market.
December 2021 imports were up 14 percent, to 65,000 mt from 56,000 mt in December 2020.
Sulfur
Tampa:
HollyFrontier suffered the Jan. 20 shutdowns of a 91,000 barrel/d crude distillation unit (CDU) and a 30,000 barrel/d vacuum distillation unit (VDU) at the company’s Tulsa West, Okla., refinery, Genscape reported. The units were restarted on Jan. 26. A coking unit shut on Jan. 18 at the facility remained offline on Jan. 26.
Tampa molten contracts were priced at $282/lt CFR for first-quarter delivery, a $99/lt increase from $183/lt CFR in the prior period.
U.S. refinery utilization trickled lower for the week ending Jan. 21, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. Operable capacity moved to 87.7 percent for the period, a 0.4 point decline from the 88.1 percent rate in the prior report. The rate compared favorably to the year-ago 81.7 percent, but lagged the 88.1 percent five-year average.
Daily crude inputs pressed higher, however, firming to an average 15.497 million barrels/d for the week, a 44,000 barrel/d increase on the prior week’s 15.453 million barrel/d average.
U.S. Gulf:
Genscape reported the Jan. 21 shutdown of the 243,000 barrel/d Pipestill 3B CDU and an associated 113,000 barrel/d VDU at the Marathon Galveston Bay, Texas, refinery. The facility’s 280,000 barrel/d Pipestill 3A CDU was noted offline on Jan. 4-10 due to a fire, while the 145,000 barrel/d FCCU3 fluidic catalytic cracking unit (FCC) was shut on Jan. 8-14.
Marathon on Jan. 20 recorded the shutdown of a 106,000 barrel/d hydrotreater at the company’s Garyville, La., plant. The shutdown was accompanied by elevated flaring, decreased stack activity, and cooling in the unit. Increased activity was observed from the unit on Jan. 24, ahead of a successful restart on the evening of Jan. 25.
Citgo shut a 174,000 barrel/d CDU and an 85,000 barrel/d VDU at the company’s Corpus Christi, Texas, refinery on Jan. 25. An emissions spike noted from a sulfur recovery unit coincided with the unit shutdowns, Genscape reported. The plant’s 69,000 barrel/d No. 2 FCC has been on a turnaround since Jan. 17.
With Brazil values on the rise, price ideas on the Gulf spot export market were seen firming to $290-$300/mt FOB, up from the last reported $270-$280/mt FOB range. Some players expected actual Gulf values to tip closer to $310/mt FOB should new business transact today.
Brazil:
Market players quoted last-done Brazil spot pricing in the $355-$357/mt CFR range, firming from the prior $327-$340/mt CFR level.
Vancouver:
Last-done at Vancouver continued to be heard at $280/mt FOB, flat compared to one week earlier.
Alberta:
Genscape reported a “significant” flaring event at the Shell Scotford Upgrader in Alberta on Jan. 21. Similar past flaring events at the site have been accompanied by operational issues, Genscape said.
Sulfur values at Alberta remained in a wide $167-$210/mt FOB range, players indicated. The range included netbacks from both molten material contracted into the U.S. market and prilled tons exported from Vancouver.
West Coast:
Valero powered down a 67,000 barrel/d hydrotreater at its Wilmington, Calif., refinery on Jan. 21, according to Genscape, marking a shutdown of all monitored units at the refinery. The hydrotreater began decreasing activity on Jan. 19, at which time numerous other units were taken offline.
West Coast prills continued to be indicated at $280/mt FOB, unmoved from the prior report.
Sources reported molten sulfur contracts in the $230-$245/lt FOB range for loading in the first quarter. Agreements were noted at $160-$170/lt FOB in the prior period.
China:
Sources reported last-done spot imports at $335/mt CFR ahead of the Feb. 1 Lunar New Year holiday. Due to the holiday, sources expected a quiet market in the week ahead.
ADNOC:
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. solid sulfur cargoes were posted at $300/mt FOB for January, players said, a $35/mt increase from December’s $265/mt FOB offer.
Qatar:
Muntajat prills were quoted at $301/mt FOB Ras Laffan for January loading, up $36/mt from the prior month’s $265/mt FOB.
Kuwait:
Sulfur cargoes loading from Kuwait were heard at $300/mt FOB for January. December offers were reported at $267/mt FOB, a $33/mt FOB difference.
Sulfuric Acid
U.S. Gulf:
Gulf spot import price ideas continued to be reported at $250-$255/mt CFR, unmoved from one week earlier.
Gulf Coast:
Annual Gulf Coast rail contracts were noted in the $195-$230/st DEL range for 2022.
Midwest:
Midwest contracts for 2022 were valued even with the Gulf Coast at $195-$230/st DEL, rising from $85-$110/st DEL in the prior year.
West Coast:
West Coast 2022 agreements were quoted at $185-$220/st DEL, increasing from $100-$130/st DEL in 2021.
Brazil:
Brazil imports were heard at $270-$275/mt CFR, unchanged from the prior report.
Ammonium Thiosulfate
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonium thiosulfate market was unchanged at $585-$610/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the high inland and the low reported at Cincinnati for the last confirmed offers. The market FOB Seneca, Ill., remained at the $600/st level in late January.
Western Cornbelt:
The last confirmed ammonium thiosulfate business remained at the $600/st FOB level in the Iowa market.
Northern Plains:
No current prices were reported for ammonium thiosulfate in the Northern Plains.
Eastern Canada:
The ammonium thiosulfate market jumped to C$860-$970/mt FOB for new offers in Eastern Canada, up dramatically from the last reported C$610-$720/mt FOB range.