All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

UAN

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA barges continued to be called $545-$550/st ($17.03-$17.19/unit) FOB. March continued to be put at $560/st, and second-quarter at $575/st or higher.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-28 pricing was unchanged at $521-$534/st ($18.61-$19.07/unit) FOB Cincinnati for prompt tons and $551/st ($19.68/unit) FOB for spring prepay. Reference UAN-32 prices for 2Q tons included $610/st ($19.06/unit) FOB Cincinnati and Peru, Ill., and $615/st ($19.22/unit) FOB Albany, Ill.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was quoted at $590/st ($18.44/unit) FOB St. Louis for March tons and $605/st ($18.91/unit) for April-June, with the upper end of the regional market pegged at $635/st ($19.84/unit) FOB Bigelow, Iowa, and Fremont, Neb., for 2Q tons.

California:

The UAN-32 market firmed to $650-$670/st ($20.31-$20.94/unit) FOB terminals in California in mid-January, up $10/st at the high end, with rail-DEL offers also confirmed in the $650-$670/st ($20.31-$20.94/unit) range in the state for March-April tons.

Pacific Northwest:

The UAN-32 market remained at a reference price of $685/st ($21.41/unit) FOB Kennewick, Wash., but sources said some lower numbers were also recently offered on a spot basis.

Western Canada:

UAN-28 pricing remained at C$775-$785/mt (C$27.68-$28.04/unit) DEL in Western Canada for spring tons, unchanged from last report.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, California, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Saudi Arabia, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Posted prices on DAP trucks loading from Central Florida continued at $785/st FOB, steady from the prior week. Truck-loaded MAP was even with DAP at $785/st FOB, also flat compared with the previous week.

MAP trucks loading from North Florida were posted at $780/st FOB, steady from week-ago levels.

U.S. Gulf:

Sources reported sliding values for both the DAP and MAP barge markets in a week of slow trading.

DAP barges loading from NOLA started off the Jan. 14-20 trading period at a $710/st FOB high for tons loading through first-half February, and $705/st FOB for first-half March loading. Prices quickly shifted, however, with sources noting sales and offers softening to the $675-$685/st FOB range by Jan. 18-19.

NOLA MAP barges also took a dive, with $730/st FOB sales and offers reported on Jan. 19 sliding to the $690-$720/st FOB range by Jan. 19-20.

With the NOLA barge market already operating at a significant discount to many international destinations, sources were divided on possible explanations for the softening values. Some attributed the weakening to inclement weather sweeping the Eastern U.S., while others pointed to continued uncertainty about spring demand or a potential index play for the lower numbers.

The nearby DAP market was reported in a wide $675-$710/st FOB range for the week, falling from $710-$715/st FOB in the prior report. MAP barges moved to $690-$730/st FOB, down from $750-$755/st FOB at last report.

U.S. Exports:

The last reported U.S. Gulf spot export pricing continued to hold at $810/mt FOB, unmoved from one week earlier.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP pricing reportedly slipped again, to $755-$775/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down another $10/st at the low end of the range. MAP was quoted at $785-$795/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt:

The DAP market slipped to $750-$760/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down another $10-$15/st from last report, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. MAP pricing softened as well, to $770-$785/st FOB in the region, with the low again reported at St. Louis.

The St. Paul market was pegged at $760/st FOB or higher for DAP and $790-$800/st FOB for MAP, while the Catoosa/Inola market reportedly dropped to $745-$760/st FOB for DAP and $775-$785/st FOB for MAP.

California:

MAP pricing remained at $910-$920/st rail-DEL or FOB California warehouses in mid-January.

Pacific Northwest:

MAP pricing in the Pacific Northwest was steady at $907/st FOB Aurora, with delivered tons pegged at $910/st in Washington, Oregon, and Nevada, and $900/st in Idaho, Utah, and Montana.

Western Canada:

New MAP offers in Western Canada were quoted at C$1,225-$1,245/mt FOB regional warehouses, with delivered tons pegged in a broad range at C$1,230-$1,280/mt in the region, depending on location.

Saudi Arabia:

Phosphates loading from Saudi Arabia were heard firming to the $880-$900/mt FOB range.

China:

Sources said discussions are underway to release a few more cargoes of DAP for export. The tons are said to be product previously secured in long-term contracts for timed shipments.

Reportedly, customs officials are allowing some product from these older deals to be shipped only after confirmation of sufficient DAP supplies in local warehouses and at the lower prices reflective of earlier in 2020 when the deals were closed. Despite the hopes of many in the global phosphate market, sources said no exports will be allowed for new deals cut with producers.

Reportedly, traders are talking with producers about arranging for May or June exports once the export ban is lifted. For now, said one trader, the talks are only about quantities. Prices will have to be discussed as the shipping dates close in.

Even as some product is being allowed out, the government is telling producers to cut back on production due to the upcoming Lunar New Year celebration and a growing concern over new COVID cases. Following the celebrations, however, the government wants the plants closed to limit air pollution during the Winter Olympics.

Exports of DAP in 2021 were reported at 6.25 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This amount is a 9 percent increase from 2020 exports of 5.7 million mt. The largest single buyer in the year was India, which took 1.7 million mt. The Indian purchases represented about 28 percent of all DAP exports. Pakistan was in second, taking 868,000 mt, followed by Bangladesh with 630,000 mt.

December exports showed the impact of the export restrictions imposed by the central government. According to Trade Data Monitor, China exported only 35,000 mt of DAP in December 2021. This is dramatically down from the December 2020 exports of 491,000 mt. It is also significantly off from November 2021 exports of 129,000 mt, and the 790,000 mt from October 2021.

Exports of MAP were up about 49 percent in 2021, to 3.8 million mt from 2.5 million mt in 2020. The main buyer of Chinese MAP in 2021 was Brazil with 1.8 million mt. Sales to Brazil represented 48 percent of the total MAP sales last year. The cargoes to Brazil represented an increase from 163,000 mt sold in 2020.

The export ban hit exports hard. China exported 28,000 mt of MAP in December 2021, with Brazil taking about half. The December 2020 export number was reported at 148,000 mt. November 2021 exports were already down to 76,000 mt as a result of the ban. October 2021 showed 233,000 mt of MAP shipped out. The average monthly exports from China for the year were calculated at 315,000 mt.

Even with the reduction in November and December exports, the second half of 2021 showed offshore sales at 1.890 million mt against first-half sales of 1.895 million mt.

India:

Buyers have been busy. Sources reported that at least two DAP cargoes from OCP were booked at $920-$925/mt CFR. There are also rumors that at least one cargo from Mexico was booked.

The fact that Indian buyers remain willing to pay higher prices for DAP indicated to traders that the needs in the country have become serious enough to risk busting the budget for product and subsidies.

Brazil:

Farmers are still waiting for MAP prices to soften before stepping up to make major purchases. This weak demand is reflected in a lower price from the few deals that did take place.

Sources quoted the price at $855-$920/mt CFR at the ports. The spread showed a softening on the lower end of the price range, but also a slight increase in the upper end. The wider range indicated to sources the uncertainty that exists in the market.

While the port prices widened, the inland price in Rondonopolis narrowed to $990-$1,024/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Demand is down, as buyers take only what they need in hopes that prices will come off before they make commitments for major tonnage later in the year.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., South Korea, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

The last done NOLA ammonium sulfate business was put at the $585/st FOB mark, with price ideas for the next round of business called $585-$595/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate prices continued to firm in the Eastern Cornbelt. The regional market was pegged in the $610-$630/st FOB range, depending on location, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium sulfate pricing was pegged at $605-$630/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the St. Louis market pegged at a solid $615/st FOB at midweek. Prices in North Dakota were confirmed at $625/st DEL for Q1 and up to $645/st DEL for Q2 tons, with the St. Paul market pegged at $625-$630/st FOB.

California:

The California ammonium sulfate market jumped to $610-$620/st FOB in early January, up $45-$50/st from December, with reports of rail-DEL offers climbing to as high as $690/st, depending on grade, location, and supplier.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonium sulfate pricing remained at a low of $560/st FOB or DEL for standard grade in the Pacific Northwest. Granular tons ranged broadly at $575-$625/st FOB and $585-$630/st DEL for Q1 tons, depending on location and supplier.

Western Canada:

The ammonium sulfate market in Western Canada had reportedly strengthened to C$785-$805/mt DEL, up from C$760-$785/mt at last report.

China:

Sources said there was a lot of talk, but no action in the ammonium sulfate market this week. Reportedly, price discussions focused on $300-$330/mt FOB for caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate. At the same time, producers were offering at just under $330/mt FOB.

Without any concluded business in the lower price zone, prices remain in the $340s/mt FOB. One trader said the only material moving in that area are older deals just getting loaded onto vessels.

Some traders are pointing to a lack of buying interest by NPK buyers around the world for the softness in the market. They note that many of these blenders look for ammonium sulfate as a substitute for urea and an easy way to add sulfur to their product. With urea prices coming off, sources expect to see a similar softening in ammonium sulfate prices.

Exports of ammonium sulfate were unaffected by the ban imposed on other fertilizer product such as DAP and urea. The exports for 2021 were up 23 percent, to 10.6 million mt against 2020 exports of 8.7 million mt. Brazil was the largest single buyer with 3.57 million mt, representing 33.5 percent of the export sales. Vietnam and Indonesia each took an additional 1.1 million mt in 2021.

December 2021 exports were up about 46 percent at 1.5 million mt, against 1 million mt in December 2020. Brazil more than doubled its monthly take of product. The December 2021 shipments to Brazil were reported at 804,000 mt, against December 2020 shipments of 368,000 mt.

Brazil:

Traders saw the lower end of the granulated ammonium sulfate market drop about $50/mt, to $400/mt CFR. At the same time, however, the upper end held steady at $490/mt FOB. This spread is expected to tighten closer to the lower end as prices from China continue to show a decline.

A lack of demand for ammonium sulfate by NPK producers is putting the general market on hold. Sources said Rondonopolis is feeling this apathetic market feeling. The price remains steady at $670/mt FOB ex-warehouse, mostly because of a lack of activity.

South Korea:

Exports of ammonium sulfate in 2021 were up 54 percent, to 603,000 mt from 391,000 in 2020 according to Trade Data Monitor. The main buyers of South Korean tons were Mexico at 107,000 mt, representing about 18 percent of the South Korean sales, followed by the U.S. at 105,000 mt, and Turkey at 95,000 mt.

December 2021 exports were reported at 99,000 mt, a dramatic rise from the 19,000 mt exported in December 2020. Brazil was the big buyer in December with 44,000 mt, followed by Ukraine at 27,500 mt, and the U.S. at 26,000 mt.

TSP

Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

TSP barge pricing was reported at a last-done $670/st FOB, falling from $675-$680/st FOB. Pricing was generally expected to follow the broader phosphate market lower in the next round of business, possibly landing in the $640-$650/mt FOB range.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP pricing was steady at $720-$725/st FOB for limited tons in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis.

Phosphoric Acid

Bangladesh, California, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

The phos acid market remained at January pricing levels of $16.20/unit rail-DEL in Illinois and $16.35/unit rail-DEL in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid prices were quoted at $16.10/unit in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri for January tons.

California:

January pricing for phos acid was pegged at $16.35/unit rail-DEL in California, up $0.05/unit from December, with MGA referenced at $16.55/unit FOB Lathrop.

Pacific Northwest:

Thephos acid market for January was quoted at $15.85/unit FOB Pocatello, Idaho, and $16.35/unit rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest, up $0.05/unit from December.

India:

Fourth-quarter India phosphoric acid contracts were noted at $1,330/mt P2O5 CFR, up $170/mt from $1,160/mt CFR in the third quarter. First-quarter contract talks were reportedly in progress during the week.

Bangladesh:

BCIC issued a tender on Jan. 21 for the purchase of 30,000 mt P2O5of phosphoric acid for shipment to Chittagong in three lots. Shipments of the first and second lots are requested to be made within 30 days from the date of the opening of the L/C, and the third shipment is to be made within 40 days of the L/C opening. The tender closes on March 7.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources continued to report no current pricing for 10-34-0 in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

The 10-34-0 market remained at $810-$825/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt for the last reported offers.

California:

The 10-34-0 market was quoted at $764-$769/st FOB for January tons in California, up from $745-$750/st FOB in December.

Pacific Northwest:

Following the higher phos acid pricing for January, the 10-34-0 market in the Pacific Northwest firmed to $769/st FOB Hedges, Wash., up $16/st from December. New 11-37-0 pricing was reported at $834/st FOB Hedges and $809/st DEL in Idaho and Utah, up from December levels of $818/st FOB Hedges and $793/st DEL.

Western Canada:

The 10-34-0 market in Western Canada was pegged at C$1,150-$1,185/mt DEL for limited January-February tons.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Potash Muriate, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Recent potash barge price ideas were quoted at $670-$675/st FOB, down from $670-$680/st FOB. With inland prices edging downward, sources speculated that the next barge trade may see a lower number.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The potash market was reported at $700-$725/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location. Nutrien on Jan. 20 reported that it is nearly fully committed for Q1 potash sales and shipment objectives domestically, and that customers are “optimistic” about spring demand given the current commodity price outlook.

“Global granular potash supply concerns are keeping the market firm, and Nutrien will be ready with potash supply to service the demand when it emerges,” the company said in a statement. “The start of spring is not too far away, with planting commencing in 30-45 days in the South.”

Western Cornbelt:

Potash pricing was unchanged at $700-$720/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high in Iowa. Sources pegged the St. Paul, Minn., market at $710-$720/st FOB, also unchanged from the prior week, with the Catoosa/Inola market falling to $700-$715/st FOB.

California:

Potash pricing remained at $850-$870/st FOB in California for Q1 offers, with the lower numbers reported for 60 percent MOP and the high for 62 percent.

Pacific Northwest:

Potash prices remained at a firm $805-$825/st FOB or DEL for Q1 tons in the Pacific Northwest in mid-January, with the low confirmed for 60 percent and the high for 62 percent MOP. The last offers from Intrepid FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, included $775/st for 60 percent white standard and $780/st for 60 percent white granular.

Western Canada:

Sources continued to report truck pricing for potash in the C$955-$975/mt range FOB Saskatchewan mines for Q1 offers, depending on grade.

India:

RCF issued a tender on Jan. 18 for the supply of 170,000 mt of bulk potash. The tender closes on Jan. 28, and offers are required to remain valid for 30 days from the tender opening. Belarusian Potash Co. has traditionally been a key supplier into RCF’s potash tenders.

Quantity Color Shipment period Discharge port Discharge rate PWWD
35,000 mt firm White/pink Feb. 2022 MBPT HB 3,000 mt SHEXEIU
35,000 mt firm White/pink March 2022  
50,000 mt firm 40,000 mt white and 10,000 mt pink Feb. 2022 East coast ports like KPCL/Kakinada etc.     10,000 mt SHEXEIU
50,000 mt at mutual option 15,000 mt white and 35,000 mt pink March 2022
Total 170,000 mt      

Brazil:

Uncertainty over how many tons will eventually make it to Brazil from Belarus is affecting pricing ideas. Sources reported a slight uptick at the ports to $770-$810/mt CFR.At the same time, however, the Rondonopolis price came down to $860-$919/mt FOB ex-warehouse as farmers continued to hold off in their demand, hoping for lower prices.

China:

Imports of MOP in 2021 were down 13 percent to 7.7 million mt, compared to 2020 imports of 8.8 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. Russia, Canada, and Belarus remained the main suppliers, with product from these three companies representing 82 percent of the total Chinese market.

The three big suppliers were close in their shares of the Chinese import market. Russia supplied 29 percent of the MOP reported in 2021, a greater share than 2020’s 25.6 percent.

Canadian suppliers lost ground in the Chinese market. While still the second-largest supplier with 2.2 million mt in 2021 for a 28 percent share of the market, the figures are not as good as 2020, when Canada sent 3.6 million mt to China for a 41 percent share of the market.

The big winner was Belarus, which jumped from 1.4 million mt in 2020 to 1.75 million mt in 2021. Its share of the market moved from 16 percent to 23 percent in the same period.

December imports were down across the board. Trade Data Monitor reported December 2021 imports of 290,000 mt against 564,000 mt in December 2020. November and October 2021 imports were also down from the same months in 2020.