All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

November Revenues Up for Mosaic; Brazil Volumes Increase

Brazil, Earnings, News, Phosphate, Potash, U.S.

The Mosaic Co. on Dec. 16 reported that sales revenues for November increased for all major business segments – Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. However, volumes were off in both the Phosphates and Potash segments, while they were up in the Brazil-based Mosaic Fertilizantes.

Mosaic reiterated that it expects fourth-quarter Phosphates sales volumes to be in the range of 1.8-1.9 million mt, with average realized prices rising $55-$65/mt over prices realized in the third quarter. The company said November Phosphates revenue was positively impacted by low-margin intercompany sulfur sales.

In Potash, Mosaic continues to expect fourth-quarter sales volumes of 2.0-2.1 million mt, with average realized prices expected to be at the low end of its guidance range of $110-$130/mt over third-quarter realized prices. The company said port congestion in Brazil has shifted expected recognition of higher-priced sales tons to the first quarter of 2022.

Phosphates Nov. 2021 Nov. 2020
Sales Volumes (000 mt) 576 719
Sales Revenue ($/M) $465 $312
Potash    
Sales Volumes (000 mt) 576 719
Sales Revenue ($/M) $465 $312
Mosaic Fertilizantes    
Sales Volumes (000 mt) 731 694
Sales Revenue ($/M) $489 $242

Seven GOP Senators Urge Potash, Phosphate for Critic Minerals List

News, News Briefs, Phosphate, Potash, U.S.

Seven Republican U.S. Senators have written a letter to U.S. Geological Survey Acting Director Dave Applegate urging him not to remove potash from the U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior 2021 List of Critical Minerals and to add phosphate as a critical mineral.

“As you are aware, we are facing a serious supply shortage of fertilizers for our farmers and ranchers, leading to prices more than doubling for potash and phosphate fertilizers,” said the senators. “Nothing is more core to national security than food security, and without fertilizer, American agricultural yields will quickly suffer and so too will Americans who have long enjoyed affordable food prices.”

The senators included Roger Marshall (Kan.), John Boozman (Ark.), Chuck Grassley (Iowa), John Hoeven (N.D.), Mike Braun (Ind.), John Thune (S.D.), and Tommy Tuberville (Ala.).

The Critical Minerals List published to the Federal Register on May 18, 2018, included potash as a critical mineral. However, the updated draft list of minerals removed potash in its findings (GM Nov. 24, p. 1). Furthermore, a 2018 National Science and Technology Council Report identified phosphate as a potentially critical mineral, yet phosphate has not been listed as a critical mineral in any draft lists.

“To us, it is clear – under the definition of ‘critical mineral,’ potash should remain as a critical mineral and phosphate should be added to the list of critical minerals,” said the senators. “Potash in the United States only comes from a few sources: one domestic producer, Canada, Russia, and Belarus. Currently, Belarus is under trade sanctions due to human rights violations, and that nation is the third largest producer and exporter globally. Our relationship with Russia is certainly not free of political risk nor anti-competitive behavior. While Canada is a quality trading partner, putting all our potash import eggs in one basket is not a smart strategy.

“Phosphate is under even more of a geopolitical threat,” said the senators, noting that China recently banned the export of phosphate fertilizer through June 2022 and Russia placed a six-month quota on exports. “The U.S. International Trade Commission has also issued countervailing duties on phosphate from Russia and Morocco, which clearly indicates a global market of anti-competitive behavior.”

They added that phosphate deposits contain some rare earth elements (REEs) that have been identified as critical minerals, and accordingly, phosphate should be granted the same identification as those REEs.

Romania’s Azomureş Stops Production

Eastern Europe, News, News Briefs

Azomureş Targu Mureș, Romania’s biggest fertilizer producer, said it stopped fertilizer production on Dec. 17, and in the next few days the production facilities and equipment will be completely shut down.

The company had announced on Dec. 6 it was starting preparations for the temporary production shutdown due to the “very high prices” for energy, natural gas, and electricity (GM Dec. 10, p. 28).

In its Dec. 17 statement, the company said the price of natural gas in Romania has continued to “significantly increase,” with the price for gas delivered in January at €132 per MWh (approximately $149.3 per MWh at current exchange rates) on Dec. 15, up from €90 per MWh on Dec. 6.

Azomureş pointed out that at the European level the price of gas has continued to increase, but the increase in Romania was “even more pronounced,” and the gap for Romanian buyers is getting worse. It said in the first half of 2021, the gas quotation on the Romanian Commodities Exchange (BRM) was a discount of €3 to the European benchmarks, but in the last months in Romania, the final price was a €9 premium above European benchmarks.

The company also noted carbon certificates have increased to a level beyond €80/mt CO2 after starting the year at around €30/mt.

Azomureş said for the company, the resulting fertilizer prices will not be affordable to distributors and farmers.

“The combination of effects in the Romanian market means that the price of Romanian fertilizers would be among the highest in Europe, if the local costs of the main raw material, natural gas, were completely transferred to the final product,” said Azomureş CEO Harri Kiiski.

“It is impossible for Romanian farmers to accept such premiums, and therefore it is impossible for Azomureş to operate at such costs,” he said.

The company has activated the technical plan for the protection of its production installations and equipment for the cold period (winterization), and its employees continue to come to work.

“We are ready at any time to restart production if and when market conditions allow it,” said Azomureş.

The company put its annual production under normal operating conditions at 1.6 million mt of fertilizers, with approximately 75 percent of the production being destined for Romanian farmers.

Yara Growth Ventures leads $30M Series C Round In Agrofy

Latin America, News, News Briefs, Scandinavia

Agrofy, a leading Latin American agri-fintech , has announced a series C round of $30 million led by Yara Growth Ventures. Yara Growth Ventures Head Erkki Aaltonen will join the Agrofy board of directors.

Agrofy has emerged as one of the leading agriculture marketplaces in Latin America, said Yara in its Dec. 17 statement. Started in 2016, Agrofy has grown into multiple business lines with expansion throughout Latin America.

Yara Growth Ventures joins Agrofy among existing investors such as SP Ventures, Acre Venture Partners, Bunge Ventures, Syngenta Ventures, Cresud, Lartirigoyen, Fall Line Capital, and Brasil Agro.

Nutrien Updates Again on Brazil Expansion Plans

Brazil, Featured, News, Saskatchewan

Just a few weeks after announcing that it plans to double capacity in Brazil, expanding from four to eight blending facilities (GM Dec. 3, p. 1), Nutrien Ltd., Saskatoon, has confirmed that it plans to add four more, for a total of twelve. With twelve units, Nutrien said it will be able to cover 10 percent of local demand.

Nutrien delivered a record 1 million mt of fertilizer in Latin America so far this year, heading for 1.2 million mt total in 2021. In Brazil, the company expects a 40 percent increase this year.

Nutrien’s four current blending plants are in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo, with two in Goiás. They have an approximate capacity of 700,000 mt/y. The next four will be in Cerrado and Southeast regions – close to farms, according to the company, as opposed to competing suppliers who are based near ports. The company has not indicated where the four after that will go.

Nutrien has made several acquisitions in Brazil in the past few years, but still sees the market as fragmented with more opportunities. Nutrien just recently announced the launch of five new Experience Centers in Brazil, with seven more planned for later this year (GM Nov. 12, p. 1). In addition to the Experience Centers, the company has 42 retail branches in Brazil, 48 in Argentina, 12 in Chile, and six in Uruguay.

Nutrien said it plans to spend R$600 million in 2022 on Brazil expansion, and that it grossed R$1.8 billion in the country last year. Revenues this year are expected to increase 70 percent, which would be nine times higher than in 2019.

Timac Agro Buys Rainbow Plant Food from Nutrien

Featured, France, News, Southeast

Timac Agro USA, a subsidiary of France-based Groupe Roullier and a provider of plant nutrition technologies, reported on Dec. 16 that it has completed the acquisition of Rainbow Plant Food, based in Americus, Ga., from Nutrien Ltd. Terms of the sale were not disclosed.

Timac Agro USA said the acquisition will allow it to locally manufacture its patented granular technologies to serve American growers. The company said Rainbow Fertilizers will continue to offer the Super Rainbow, Rainbow, and International Rainbow grades and operate as an independent brand within the Timac Agro USA portfolio.

“Rainbow is iconic and tied to the land, as the hometown brand of the family farmer. This brand recognition is invaluable, and the ability to maintain and continue its legacy is critical for our future endeavors,” said Alex Goullier, CEO of Timac Agro USA. “Keeping the Rainbow brand consistent will allow our relationship with dealers and farmers to grow even more due to Rainbow’s historical footprint in the Cotton Belt and the Southeast.

“Timac Agro USA has been largely successful in this geographical area as well, because of the work of our Agronomic Technical Consultants on the farm, partnering with growers and retailers at the local level, to help ensure productivity and success,” Goullier added.

Goullier said the acquisition is an important part of Timac Agro USA’s growth strategy, and Rainbow will become the first Timac Agro granular unit in the country, along with 14 other NPK granulation manufacturing facilities Timac Agro has around the world.

“Besides adding the Rainbow brands to our portfolio, this addition will allow us to manufacture some of our most innovative granular technologies, such as NutriRhize and, in the future, Sulfammo, here in the United States,” Goullier said.

Headquartered in Reading, Pa., Timac Agro USA currently markets and distributes a portfolio of more than 60 patented technologies for plant nutrition in 30 states, including specialty liquid formulas, seed treatments, water soluble fertilizers, fertilizer additives, high efficiency and microgranular fertilizers, soil conditioners, and OMRI listed products.

Timac Agro USA has 200 employees at four U.S. locations. These include a biostimulant plant at Reading, where all the company’s liquid products are manufactured, and blending facilities in Eden, N.Y., Springerton, Ill., and St. Louis, Mich. Its parent, Groupe Roullier, has 8,500 employees globally, with marketing operations in 131 countries and consolidated revenues of €2 billion.

Tornado Damage to Fertilizer Facilities Reported

News, News Briefs, U.S.

The devastating tornadoes that recently hit Kentucky and surrounding states also damaged fertilizer facilities in its path. The U.S. Coast Guard Sector Lower Mississippi River Incident Management Division on Dec. 13 reported a damaged warehouse storing approximately 2 million pounds of granular ammonium nitrate fertilizer. The report said the warehouse roof was significantly damaged. It was identified as the Bruce Oakley warehouse in Hayti, Mo. The company had not responded to inquiries at press time.

J.R. Simplot Co., Boise, reported that three of its Simplot Grower Solutions Stores – two in Kentucky and one in Arkansas – sustained significant damage. All employees were accounted for and safe with homes intact, but many areas were without electricity and running water. The company said it was working to clean up the locations, secure inventory, and ensure site safety.

Nutrien Ltd., Saskatoon, reported that approximately 39 Nutrien Ag Solutions retail locations were in the path of the storm and many sustained damage or lost power. However, it said there was no loss of integrity to any chemical containment units. Nutrien’s Nitrogen and Phosphate operations were not impacted.

“Safety and environmental protection are core values at Nutrien, and we continue to monitor the effects of the recent tornadoes which impacted several U.S. states last week,” a company spokesman told Green Markets. “We mourn the loss of life and extensive damage in so many communities where our colleagues and customers live and work. In response to these devastating events, Nutrien has made a $100,000 donation to the American Red Cross to support those who have been affected.”

Ammonia

Ammonia, Black Sea, California, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Northwestern Europe, Pacific N.W., Tampa, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa:

With European natural gas prices continuing to set new records, coupled with a growing number of ammonia cargoes reported selling in the four-digits worldwide, expectations for the January Tampa ammonia price continued to track above the $990/mt CFR December value.

Last-done on the NOLA barge market continued to track at $1,030/st FOB.

U.S. Imports:

Ammonia imports were up 18.3 percent in October, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, to 229,777 st from the year-ago 194,182 st. July-October imports were up 17.6 percent, to 856,440 st from 728,165 st one year earlier.

U.S. Exports:

Ammonia exports for October stood at 38,744 st, up 113.2 percent from the year-ago 18,175 st. July-October exports were reported at 174,379 st, however, off 34.4 percent from the prior-year 265,785 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources continued to report some spotty movement of ammonia for fall application in parts of Illinois, where terminal prices were reported at a low of $1,300/st FOB for prompt tons, $1,350/st FOB for January, and up to $1,375/st for spring prepay.

The Lima, Ohio, ammonia market was quoted at $1,375/st FOB for prompt pull in mid-December, but spring prepay offers at that location were up $25/st from last week, to $1,400/st FOB.

In the southern U.S., truck offers FOB Gulf Coast terminals had reportedly firmed to $1,000-$1,050/st FOB for prompt tons, up $50/st at the low end of the range.

Western Cornbelt:

Sources continued to report spring prepay ammonia offers at $1,365-$1,395/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the lower numbers reported in Nebraska and the higher in Iowa. A few prompt offers continued to be reported in the $1,350-$1,450/st FOB range on a spot basis, with the high at Wever, Iowa.

California:

The ammonia market was pegged at $1,085/st DEL in California, reflecting a price increase that took effect on Dec. 1. The aqua ammonia market was quoted at $281/st FOB for December pricing.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest was up from last report. Sources said fill program tons are reportedly on the table at $1,450/st DEL and $1,370/st FOB Washington terminals, up from the last confirmed prompt fall business at $1,170/st DEL.

The aqua ammonia market was quoted at $355/st FOB in the region, up from $285/st FOB at last report.

Western Canada:

Ammonia pricing in Western Canada was quoted in the C$2,000-$2,100/mt DEL range for spring prepay, depending on location and supplier, up from the last reported fall business at C$1,700-$1,850/mt DEL. Sources said prepay programs at the C$2,050/mt DEL level in Saskatchewan are now generally concluded.

Black Sea:

Sources said a sale from TAOZ to Turkey of 17,000 mt came in at $1,010/mt FOB at Yuzhnyy.The deal continues the price increase in the Black Sea for ammonia. Sources said spot tons are not common, even while demand remains strong. With each deal, the price is expected to go up at least for the near future.

India:

Buyers keep looking for product but are pushing back when spot prices are quoted higher than $1,000/mt CFR.

The ammonia still moving into India is from existing contracts. Sources said the price for these tons is far below the current market rate. The last bit of public business into India showed a price of $670/mt CFR, a level that is nonexistent in the current market.

Middle East:

Producers continue to argue they are sold out into mid-January. The lack of spot material keeps the price around $900/mt FOB.

Northwest Europe:

Sources said pricing expectations are now at $1,200/mt C&F. However, this past week showed a marked reduction in buying and selling interest. Without any new deals to test the market, sources said the price is holding at $1,110-$1,210/mt C&F.

The record-high cost of natural gas in Europe and the tightness of ammonia availability from all major sources is putting a steady upward pressure on prices.

Sources said Baltic shipments are moving out under contracts and price agreements at just over $1,000 mt/FOB.

Urea

Australia, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Pacific N.W., U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Further strengthening was observed in the granular urea barge market, with players reporting December-loading trades in the $770-$780/st FOB range, an increase from the previous week’s $763-$780/st FOB. Barges tabbed for January loading were reported at $775-$782/st FOB, while February tons traded up to $791-$792/st FOB, sources said. A rumored $785/st FOB December barge went unconfirmed on Dec. 16.

Nothing new was reported in the NOLA prill market, leaving last-done in the $765-$775/st FOB range.

U.S. Imports:

July-October urea imports were up 84.1 percent, to 1.64 million st from the year-ago 892,618 st. October imports moved up 95.5 percent, to 659,274 st from last year’s 337,302 st, pulling in large cargoes from Algeria, Russia, Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago, Canada, and Oman during the month.

Qatar led imports with 377,212 st during the July-October period, up 14.4 percent from the year-ago 329,767 st, while a huge October total of 189,257 st lifted Algeria to 267,682 st for the fertilizer year-to-date, contrasted with zero tons shipped to the U.S. during the same period last year. Russia was the market’s third-largest import origin at 264,602 st, up 107.2 percent from 127,684 st during the same period last year.

U.S. Exports:

Urea exports were down 84.5 percent in July-October, to 60,739 st from the year-ago 392,194 st. Exports totaled 12,820 st for October, a 77.2 percent tumble from 56,257 st in October 2020.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The urea market remained in a broad range at $815-$840/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio, and the high out of spot Illinois River terminals.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices remained in a broad range at $810-$850/st FOB in the region, depending on location, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and the high out of spot Iowa terminals. Sources confirmed the latest urea offers FOB St. Paul, Minn., at the $860/st FOB level in mid-December.

California:

While urea pricing at Stockton, Calif., remained at the $880/st FOB level at mid-month, sources quoted the West Sacramento, Calif., market at $900-$910/st FOB for bulk tons and up to $970/st FOB for bags. No current delivered urea pricing was confirmed in the state.

Pacific Northwest:

The urea market was quoted at $915-$920/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, down from the last reported range of $930-$950/st FOB, with the low reported at Rivergate, Ore. The latest rail-DEL urea offers were pegged at $895-$935/st in Washington and Oregon for prompt tons.

Western Canada:

The urea market was quoted at $1,250-$1,265/mt FOB and C$1,255-$1,280/mt DEL for spring tons in Western Canada, with reports that some prepay programs had already been pulled by mid-December.

India:

Just as the week closed, IPL called a urea tender to close on Dec. 23. The shipping deadline is Jan. 31, 2022.

While the market had expected an Indian tender to be called any time in the past three weeks, sources were surprised to see the call come from IPL. The industry was ready to see a tender call come from NFL. Reports from India indicated NFL officials were meeting with the India Department of Fertilizer and Treasury (DoF) for the past few weeks to ensure all the paperwork was prepared properly and in a timely manner for another tender.

In the end, said a number of traders, it must have appeared to the DoF that NFL was not ready, so they went with IPL, which has a solid track record of running urea tenders.Sources said the buyer will shoot for securing 1.5 million mt, which would put the 2021 buying just shy of the 2020 buying program.

The difference for this year, however, is that the tenders needed to bring in at least 1 million mt more because of the end of the OMIFCO contract in July 2020.When the Indians and the OMIFCO negotiators could not come to an agreement, India no longer received the full 2 million mt production from the Omani plant at a steep discount. The lost tons had to be made up in the public tenders just as the price was moving up and supplies were tightening.

Indian buyers have paid an average of $547-$599/mt CFR for 6.7 million mt so far this year, compared with an average price of $262-$263/mt CFR for 9 million mt in calendar year 2020.

China remains out of the global urea market, leaving Indonesia, Egypt, and the Arab Gulf as the primary sources for this tender. Some Russian material may also be offered if it fits within the export plans of that country.

Even with China out as a major supplier, sources said one to two cargoes might come out of the bonded warehouses in China. Most of this material, said traders, was placed in the warehouses before the Oct. 15 export ban. Sources speculated the urea may be released by the Chinese government because it was officially outside the domestic market by the deadline. The only issue was that all the paperwork for an end user was not completed.

The Chinese government made some exemptions for urea exports for South Korea. Sources said the government will most likely also allow the bonded warehouse product to be released.

Nailing down tons from Egypt and the Arab Gulf will also be difficult. Sources said the Egyptian government continues to have concerns about its own domestic market needs being met before any tons are exported. Some producers are not sure if they will be allowed to export in January while they wait for the latest pronouncement from Cairo.

Arab Gulf producers are slowly coming back online, but producers continue to claim they are sold out through most of January with existing contracts.

The Indonesian government may soon be issuing export permits for the urea producers. This could lead to a selling tender in time for tons to be offered into the IPL tender.While there has been pushback against ever-higher price, sources said they would be surprised if the price moved much from the last tender when level touched on $1,000/mt CFR.

To make the first semester of 2022 easier for urea distribution in India, there are solid reports that the DoF and OMIFCO are about to ink a three-year deal for 1 million mt each year. Sources said the annual shipments will be divided between OMIFCO and Fertiglobe.The deal is less than half of what the DoF received under its old contract with OMFICO. Sources suggested the discount rate being offered by OMIFCO will also be less than the old deal.

Sources said the importation and distribution of tons will most likely be handled by RCF. The deal will provide some stability in urea imports, something that has been lacking in 2021.

China:

Rumors are circulating that a couple of large cargoes of urea might be released from bonded warehouses for consideration in the IPL/India tender.

Sources said the urea was already in the warehouses, but did not have a confirmed end user. The lack of a confirmed buyer kept the tons from being released after the Oct. 15 implementation of a urea export ban by the Chinese government. Reportedly traders have been working with government officials to get the tons released, arguing the product was already outside consideration for the Chinese domestic market.

Reportedly, the urea entered the warehouses when prices were in the $400s/mt FOB. Now prices are closer to $930/mt FOB. Even with storage costs, sources said the holders of the product should expect a respectable profit. However, one trader noted there are still issues securing the timely arrival of a vessel into Chinese ports, largely due to COVID-related issues at the ports.

Sources said the government has told the state-owned urea plants they need to step up urea production. Traders said the current production rate is 50-60 percent of the plants’ rated amounts. The government wants production ramped up to at least 70 percent in the first quarter.

The move by the government led some international traders to speculate that if production is increased, there will be enough urea on hand for the domestic market earlier than the May 30 deadline set by the government. The hope, said one trader, is that Beijing will allow more large-scale exports sooner. Such a move, said a source, would help ease the pricing pressure on the global urea market.

Middle East:

Arab Gulf producers continue to say they are sold out through January 2022. Given the likelihood that prices into the IPL/Indian tender will be higher than the netbacks from existing contracts, however, sources said the producers will most likely find several cargoes for traders to offer into the tender.

With China out of the global market, sources said India will have to rely on the Arab Gulf, Egypt, and Indonesia for the bulk of their product. Some tons may also come from Russia, but the bulk of the 1.5 million mt that IPL reportedly wants will come from Arab producers.

Material flowing out of the Arab Gulf this week was either from long-term deals or awards from the most recent India tender. Sources said there is a dearth of spot material, leaving nothing around to test prices.

Sources said OMIFCO and the Indian government are close to signing a deal that will lock up 1 million mt/year for three years. Reportedly, India will be getting less than half of the OMIFCO annual output. The rest of the product will be offered on the open market, most likely by the Omani trading company OQ.

Sources said OQ is using its access to the OMIFCO urea to build up its global customer list past the receiving foreign port. Reportedly, in another year or so it plans to add ammonia to its portfolio. Sources said it plans to reach into local distribution networks rather than depend on various trading houses to get the nitrogen to the ports and beyond.

The paper market for the Arab Gulf was reported at $840/mt FOB for January 2022 and $830/mt FOB for February 2022.

No new deals were closed in Egypt this week, as producers continue to argue for $950/mt FOB. Sources reported a shortage of Egyptian spot material this month because the government increased the amount of urea each producer must hold back for the domestic market. The announcement in late November ordered plants to hold back 65 percent of their output instead of the earlier announced 55 percent.

The Egyptian paper market is reported at $835/mt FOB for January 2022 and $810/mt FOB for February 2022.

Indonesia:

Kaltim V will stay down a bit longer. The plant’s management announced that it now plans to re-open the facility in mid-January instead of the end of December. Gresik is slowly coming back online since its mid-September maintenance shutdown.

Traders said final steps are being taken by the government to issue the 2022 export permits. Reportedly, there is still some hesitancy to release the permits too soon. Sources said the government continues to be concerned that the domestic market should receive priority from the producers over the more lucrative international market.

If the permits are released in time, sources said a tender might be called to allow some Indonesian tons to be considered in the IPL tender.

The Australian government has been in talks with the Indonesian government to secure urea for its diesel emission control systems. The quantity is not overly large when compared with the agricultural demand for urea, but enough to play a role in how many tons will be allowed for export.

Australia:

Australia is facing a urea shortage for the production of AdBlue, a liquid urea that is needed to reduce diesel emissions.

Unlike South Korea, which also faced the shutdown of its transportation network due to a lack of liquid urea, Australia has to rely more on Indonesia and the Arab Gulf for its urea because of trade and diplomatic disputes with China. South Korea was able to get about 18,000 mt directly from China after government-to-government talks were held.

Brazil:

Urea prices in the country are softening as end users refuse to buy forward as long as prices remain high. Sources in Brazil said the price at the ports has come off about $15/mt, to $815-$870/mt CFR. Traders outside Brazil called the market $815-$830/mt CFR.

The fight against higher prices continues inland as well. Sources reported softer prices in Rondonopolis at $920-$980/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Reportedly, supplies in Brazil are strong enough that buyers who are looking for a few top-off tons can get what they need. As long as the demand remains limited, sources said the buyers will keep pushing against higher prices.

The only thing that makes buyers nervous at this time, said sources, is trying to figure out what will happen to global supplies once the Indian tender is awarded. Some also are showing concern over the Russian restriction on ammonium nitrate.

Brazil’s purchases of ammonium nitrate exceed the authorized export amount for the whole world. Local forces are concerned that some usual ammonium nitrate buyers will begin pushing for more urea and cause a temporary shortage of product.

UAN

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

The NOLA UAN barge price continued to be referenced in the $545-$550/st ($17.03-$17.19/unit) FOB range for loading through February. Sources noted March barges pressing closer to $560/st ($17.50/unit) FOB.

U.S. Imports:

Imports of UAN were off 5.2 percent for October, to 203,901 st from the year-ago 215,068 st. July-October imports stood at 889,549 st, however, up 10.6 percent from the year-ago 804,517 st.

Russia topped the list for July-October at 384,062 st, falling 4.2 percent from the year-ago 401,066 st. Trinidad and Tobago sent 354,504 st, up 17.6 percent from 301,475 st for the prior-year period, while tons sourced from Canada totaled 116,201 st, up 35.1 percent from 86,029 st in 2020.

U.S. Exports:

UAN exports totaled 2,425 st in October, off 87.4 percent from the year-ago 19,305 st. July-October exports were reported at 266,317 st, down 24.4 percent from the prior-year 352,261 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 pricing was pegged at $590-$610/st ($18.44-$19.06/unit) FOB regional terminals for prompt tons, with spring offers reported at $625-$630/st ($19.53-$19.69/unit) FOB. The UAN-28 market at Cincinnati was reported at $521-$525/st ($18.61-$18.75/unit) FOB for prompt and $550/st ($19.64/unit) FOB for spring prepay.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was unchanged at $590-$620/st ($18.44-$19.38/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt for the last prompt tons, with Q1 offers quoted in the $610-$630/st ($19.06-$19.69/unit) range, depending on location.

California:

The UAN-32 market remained at $650-$660/st ($20.31-$20.63/unit) FOB terminals in California, with reports of $655/st ($20.47/unit) rail-DEL deals also done for February shipment.

Pacific Northwest:

The UAN-32 market was pegged at $648-$685/st ($20.25-$21.41/unit) FOB regional terminals in the Pacific Northwest, with the upper end reflecting the posted price FOB Kennewick, Wash. Sources also confirmed rail-DEL offers at the $648/st ($20.25/unit) level in mid-December.

Western Canada:

UAN-28 pricing firmed to C$775-$785/mt (C$27.68-$28.04/unit) DEL in Western Canada for spring tons, up C$5/mt at the high end of the range.