U.S.
Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia for December continued at
$990/mt CFR, with the last NOLA barge business reported at $1,030/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources
reported ammonia running hard in parts of central and southern Illinois at
midweek, although activity was slowed by wet conditions in northern areas of
the state. Ammonia pricing continued to firm, fueled by short supply and heavy
fall demand.
The ammonia market was quoted at $1,300-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals, up from the prior week’s $1,285-$1,350/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Lima, Ohio. Most Illinois and Indiana terminals were reported in the $1,350-$1,400/st FOB range where tons were still available, with the low confirmed for limited truck offers FOB East Dubuque, Ill.
Western Cornbelt:
Mild, dry weather
conditions in early December allowed plenty of fall ammonia application in the
region during the week. “The Western
Cornbelt is still going hard, and this thing will continue until weather shuts
us out,” commented one regional source.
“Fall volumes are very
strong,” added another contact at midweek. “We are still running both ammonia
and dries.”
Prompt ammonia pricing
ranged broadly at $1,300-$1,450/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt during the week,
with the low reported at Garner, Iowa, and the high at Wever, Iowa. The last
business in Nebraska was pegged at the $1,325/st FOB level. Multiple locations
remained out of product, however.
In the Southern Plains,
new ammonia offers were confirmed at $1,300/st FOB Coffeyville, Kan., up $25/st
from the previous week, with Oklahoma terminals at Pryor and Verdigris
reportedly not taking orders. Pricing for truck tons FOB Gulf Coast terminals
was pegged at $950-$1,000/st FOB, up from $850-$950/st FOB at last report.
Northern Plains:
The first spring prepay
ammonia program came out on Dec. 2, with N-7 reportedly offering $1,575/st FOB
Beulah, N.D., for limited tons. No other ammonia pricing was reported in the
region, either for prompt or prepay, with expectations that a new delivered
price may be out within the week.
The last prompt ammonia
pricing in the Northern Plains fell in the $1,300-$1,400/st FOB range, but
sources said those offers were no longer on the table and fall demand in the
region is now over.
Black
Sea:
Sources
reported an ammonia sale late this week of 4,000-5,000 mt out of Yuzhnyy at
$930/mt FOB. The reported buyer was Trammo. The source of the material was
unclear.
One
trader said the high prices seen in the ammonia market are making it possible
for some Ukrainian plants to once again offer product on the global market. The
high price of natural gas as a feedstock has kept the Ukrainian plants either
shut down or supplying product only for the domestic market.
Looking
after the domestic market will remain the focus of Ukrainian producers, sources
said. However, when opportunities arise for smaller lots to be sold at a price
sufficiently high enough, sources said the companies will take a chance on the
global market.
Sources
also said OCP may have contracted with Koch to pick up extra material in
Turkey. The rumors also said the vessel booked may instead be getting in the
queue early to clear the entrance to the Black Sea before heading to Yuzhnyy
for a scheduled cargo pick up.
Middle
East:
Sources
confirmed a Saudi sale at $900/mt FOB. Reportedly, the sale of 15,000 mt was to
Trammo for a December loading.The consensus is that the tons will be
sent to Southeast Asia, where rumors of a deal at $975/mt CFR fit nicely with
the Saudi deal.
The
15,000 mt sold was the exception to the accepted situation in the region.
Sources said all the producers are up and running, but demand is so strong that
they only have material to cover contracts or other long-term arrangements,
leaving precious few tons for a spot sale. Even with spot material available,
sources said few buyers are willing to pay the current high rates.
India:
The
only reported movement into India involves tons purchased under contracts or
other forms of formula-based pricing. The last spot deal showed a price into
India at $670/mt CFR. Even buyers said this price is no longer available, and
discussions are now at $800/mt CFR.
The
problem both sides face, however, is that the large number of contracted tons
is artificially keeping the price into India lower than many think it should be.
Occasional
queries for spot tons from Indian buyers are right around $800/mt CFR.
Suppliers, however, note that a couple of weeks ago even $800/mt FOB would have
been too low to attract a counteroffer from a producer. With the latest SABIC
sale at $900/mt FOB, sellers are now looking closer to $1,000 mt FOB.
No
spot deals have been done for some time. Even FACT, which has depended on almost
monthly tenders for its urea, has gone silent. Sources speculated that the
company may be getting its ammonia from the ammonia supplies held by other
Indian companies, and those companies most likely get their ammonia from
formula-based deals.
Northwest
Europe:
The
announcement by Yara that its ammonia plants are back up and running came as prices
in the area moved up. Sources reported that a deal from Yara to a German buyer
at $1,100/mt CFR was more than enough to allow the plants to restart.
Sources
said the Yara deal could have an equivalent netback from the Baltic at $950/mt
FOB. From this calculation and another deal recently closed, sources said the
Northwest Europe price would be $1,030-$1,040/mt C&F.
Reportedly,
there is still no settled December price for ammonia out of the Baltic ports.
Sources said, however, the Yara deal at $1,100/mt CFR would be a good indicator
that the price might have to end up around $950/mt FOB.
Thailand:
January-October
2021 ammonia imports were reported at 355,000 mt, up 22.5 percent from the same
period in 2020. The main suppliers, according to Trade Data Monitor, were Malaysia at 227,000 mt and Australia at
81,000 mt.
October
imports this year were up a whopping 200 percent, to 49,000 mt from 16,000 mt
in October 2020 The tonnage was divided between Malaysia at 30,000 mt and
Indonesia at 19,000 mt.