U.S. Gulf:
Early-week trades were reported to have reached as high as $535-$540/st FOB for July-August business, with September called $550/st FOB.
Others, however, citing buyer resistance to higher prices, put the NOLA market as low as $510/st FOB, if not lower. Those sources said there is still much lower-priced product to be delivered inland during the third-quarter that was sold earlier by domestic producers.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash was quoted at $555-$595/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Marseilles, Ill. The Cincinnati market was pegged in the $585-$595/st FOB range for limited offers, while pricing FOB Ottawa and East Dubuque was reported at the $575/st FOB level at midweek.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources quoted the potash market at $545-$575/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt for limited offers in mid-July, with Caruthersville pricing pegged at the $550/st FOB level and St. Louis at $570/st FOB. The St. Paul, Minn., market was reported at $555-$575/st FOB during the week.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing was quoted in a broad range at $535-$575/st FOB Catoosa/Inola in mid-July, depending on supplier and availability. The last postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $540/st for 60 percent white granular and $547/st for 62 percent white standard.
South Central:
The potash market was pegged at $550-$560/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, but offers remained elusive. “As prices started running, liquidity started drying up,” commented one source.
Southeast:
Potash prices were reported in a broad range at $555-$600/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, depending on location and time of shipment, with the upper end reported for recent prompt offers FOB Wilmington.
Russia:
Potash exports were up sharply for the first five months of the year, according to Trade Data Monitor. Exports totaled 5.07 million mt during the period, some 69 percent higher than the 2.99 million mt reported for the same period last year. May 2021 exports were 1.22 million mt, up from 922,075 mt in April.
The biggest volumes for the first five months went to Brazil, which was up 44 percent; China, up 58 percent; Estonia, up 71 percent; and Indonesia, up 321 percent. Notably, export volumes to the U.S. through May increased 277 percent, to 468,000 mt.
Russian Potash Exports January-May
| ‘000 mt | Jan.-May 2021 | Jan.-May 2020 | % change |
| Total exports | 5,071 | 2,991 | +69 |
| Brazil | 1,132 | 784 | +44 |
| China | 1,047 | 663 | +58 |
| Estonia | 506 | 295 | +71 |
| U.S. | 468 | 124 | +277 |
| Indonesia | 442 | 105 | +321 |
| Malaysia | 283 | 42 | +566 |
| Finland | 180 | 147 | +23 |
| India | 156 | 95 | +64 |
| Nigeria | 141 | 75 | +88 |
| Poland | 122 | 60 | +103 |
India:
FACT closes a tender for the purchase of 40,000 mt of red/pink standard potash in two shipments on July 21 (GM July 9, p. 15). The tender is actually a retender, and calls for the loading of the first shipment in August and the second in September.
Brazil:
Buyers are reportedly holding off on making any purchase of MOP until necessary. This has led to prices reported at $600-$670/mt CFR in Paranagua, with inland prices at Rondonopolis quoted at $715-$745/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
The portside price range widened as buyers tried to push back against higher pricing expectations, and as sellers tried to take advantage of the limited tons available for sale.
The increase of at Rondonopolis is more a reflection of nervousness among farmers about what will happen next. The steady rise in MOP prices is affecting buyers, and some are expecting to see a price correction soon.
As a result, they are refusing to buy too many tons or to take a large forward position. At the same time, MOP is still needed for blending and to top off larger purchases, therefore some purchases still need to be made. Sources said a lot of the inland deals are just hand-to-mouth, but at ever rising prices.


