U.S. Gulf:
The NOLA granular urea barge range tightened to
$430-$438/st FOB from the week-ago $429-$439/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
pricing was quoted at $475-$485/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $5/st at
the upper end of the range. Both the high and low were reported in the
Cincinnati, Ohio, market during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
The urea market was steady at
$460-$480/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Port Neal,
Iowa, and the high at Caruthersville, Mo. The St. Louis, Mo., market was pegged
in the $470-$475/st FOB range, with the last offers FOB Camanche, Iowa,
reported at $475/st.
Southern Plains:
The urea market remained at $490/st FOB Houston, Texas, and $495-$500/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla. Nutrien confirmed that its Borger, Texas, plant is currently in start-up mode after a major turnaround that began on May 3 (GM May 7, p. 41). The plant is expected to return to normal operation by next week.
South Central:
Urea pricing was pegged at $470-$485/st
FOB in the South Central region, down $5-$10/st from last report, with the low
reported at Memphis, Tenn., and the high confirmed at Arkansas terminals and
out of spot Ohio River shipping points in Kentucky. The last reported price FOB
Convent, La., was $475/st.
Southeast:
Urea prices in the
Southeast were quoted in the $470-$485/st FOB range out of port terminals, down
slightly from last report, depending on location.
India:
RCF
called the fifth urea tender of the year to close on July 22 with a shipping
deadline of Aug. 31. The call came three weeks after the previous tender
closed, confirming the view of many in the industry that the market needs to
get ready for a series of new Indian tenders every three weeks.
So
far this year, India has imported or booked a total of 2.7 million mt. Last
year by the end of July, MMTC and RCF had arranged for 2.8 million mt to be
imported.
Unfortunately
for India this year, sources pointed out that last year’s first semester included
at least 2 million mt of urea from a long-term contract with OMIFCO, a contract
that has now expired. Sources said the inability of MMTC or RCF to secure 1
million mt or more in each tender so far this year has left the country shy of
about 2 million mt.
Also
playing against the Indian buyers this year are the higher prices for urea and
freight. The average price of West Coast deliveries through July 2020 was
$243/mt CFR, with the East Coast at $245/mt CFR. This year for the first four
tenders, which only includes tons booked by the end of June, the average price
is $415/mt CFR for the West Coast and $414/mt CFR for the East Coast.
With
the exception of the May MMTC tender, prices from each tender jumped an average
of 12.5 percent. If that pattern continues, the latest RCF tender could see
prices of $573/mt CFR for the East Coast and $564/mt CFR for the West Coast. If
the jump is closer to the almost 20 percent increase observed in the last
tender, then prices would surpass $600/mt CFR.
|
Closing Date
|
Buying Agency
|
WC Price US$/mt CFR
|
Tender % Difference WC
|
EC Price US$/mt CFR
|
Tender % Difference EC
|
|
22-Mar-21
|
RCF
|
380.18
|
25.1
|
379.87
|
24.6
|
|
4-May-21
|
MMTC
|
358.99
|
(5.9)
|
356.99
|
(6.4)
|
|
25-May-21
|
RCF
|
418.00
|
14.1
|
408.88
|
12.7
|
|
24-Jun-21
|
RCF
|
501.96
|
16.7
|
509.95
|
19.8
|
Sources
said they see little on the horizon to lower prices. Chinese producers remain
hesitant to offer product because of central government pressure to give the
Chinese domestic market priority. At the same time, Arab producers are focused
on their long-term clients and additional business opportunities in Brazil.
Traders
were hesitant to make predictions of where the price will end up once the
tender documents are opened. What many agree on, however, is that the price
will go up once more.
Middle
East:
Urea
supplies remain tight even as demand steps up. The most recent deal was earlier
this month to an unnamed African buyer, with a netback of $505/mt FOB, which
set a new floor for talks. Sources noted that at this level, the price into
India for the tender would be $530-$535/mt CFR. For some, that price was seen
as the extreme low end of projected prices in the tender to close on July 22.
Issues
with production will continue to keep Arab Gulf urea availability limited for
the Indian tender. Producers are looking to ensure that their regular,
long-term clients are covered before offering tons to India.
The
wariness of producers to step in was shown in the last tender, when no producer
offered product. Usually, one or two producers will submit offers of small
cargoes just to show interest in the event. Sometimes the offers are priced so
high that the Indian buyers reject the offers immediately.
The
paper market for the Arab Gulf in July is pegged at $490.50/mt FOB for July and
$490/mt FOB for August.
Egyptian
producers are now asking a minimum of $480/mt FOB for the next round of
granular purchases. Sources said some of these deals could be for late-August
shipments, but most likely for mid-September.
The
current range was set by deals last month for July and August shipment topping
off at $475/mt FOB for granular. A prilled urea deal was recently concluded at
$465/mt FOB.
The
demand for Egyptian urea remains strong in Europe and Africa. Some Egyptian
product might also be considered for an Indian tender, depending on the final
tender price. The Egyptian paper market is reported at $477.50/mt FOB for July
and August.
Abu
Qir reported that it will be revamping one of its granular urea units. Under an
agreement signed with Thyssenkrupp Fertilizer Technology, the work will raise
the daily rated capacity from the current 2,000 mt to 2,500 mt. Work is
expected to be completed in 2025.
China:
The
threat of an export duty continues to hover over producers thinking about
selling their product offshore. The possibility is being seriously considered, sources
said. The government is pressuring the urea producers to make sure there is
enough urea at lower prices for the domestic market before they move to take
advantage of the hot global market.
The
possibility of an export duty could lead producers and traders to be hesitant
about offering too many Chinese tons in the July 22 RCF tender.
Production
of urea is expected to step up as more coal and natural gas are made available
in the country for power generation. Earlier drains on the power grid prompted
the government to require factories of all types to cut back on their use of
electricity in order to avoid blackouts due to extensive use of air conditioners
during a recent heatwave.
Even
with increased production, sources said urea prices are not expected to come
off. Strong global demand is expected to take the producers into September, when
the domestic market once again kicks in. Even then, sources said, because of
the pressure of the government in favor of domestic sales over international
ones, some domestic distributors may use the off season to build up reserves to
sell once the local demand kicks in.
Reportedly,
producers are telling potential buyers that the floor is $475/mt FOB. However,
a report circulated that a granular cargo from China was sold to a Chilean
buyer just under $475/mt FOB. This would fit in with what many sources have
been calling the market, despite limited offshore deals.
Sources
said there is really not much difference in pricing between prills and granular
into the global market. Traders pointed to a prilled urea deal last week that
went for $470-$475/mt FOB.
As
traders review their options for offers into the RCF tender, availability from
China remains a major topic of discussion. Sources said so far there does not
seem to be a lot of material ready for shipment to India under a new tender.
About 200,000 mt is estimated in the bonded warehouses in China ready for
export.
However,
some of that tonnage is already earmarked to cover awards from the most recent
RCF tender. Some sources argued that the return to production of urea, combined
with the material available at the ports for export, could allow for about
300,000 mt to be offered from China into India.
Indonesia:
Production
has resumed at the PIM granular production facility. The plant was shut down in
May because of a shortage of natural gas.
No
new deals or tenders were reported this week, holding the granular price at
$479/mt FOB, even as the producers argue that $490/mt FOB should be the price.
Brazil:
Reaction
to the RCF/India tender call has not had time to sink in and affect the
Brazilian market significantly. The price at Paranagua is now pegged at
$500-$525/mt CFR, representing a modest increase.
What
is hitting buyers are the limited tons available at Paranagua and other ports,
which, in turn, leads to shortages inland. Even with reduced availability,
sources said there is high demand for trucks to load whatever fertilizer is
available at Paranagua for shipment inland. This demand is running up the price
of freight to the regional distributors.
The
Rondonopolis market appears to have stabilized as buyers look for small
quantities on an “as needed” basis. Sources said the price is right at $615/mt
FOB ex-warehouse, which represents a movement down on the top end of the
previous range and a slight increase on the lower end.
Russia:
Urea
exports for the first five months of the year were down slightly, to 2.8
million mt from 2.9 million mt during the same period last year, Trade Data Monitor reported. The top
buyer of Russian urea for the period was Brazil at 554,000 mt, followed by
Finland at 459,000 mt, Switzerland at 345,000 mt, India at 167,000 mt, and
Mexico at 133,000 mt.
May 2021 exports of urea were down almost
30 percent, to 459,000 mt from 645,000 mt in May 2020. The single biggest buyer
in May was Brazil at 125,000 mt.