All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Azomures Plant Nears Restart

Azomures, Romania’s biggest fertilizer producer, said on June 29 the technical work being undertaken on some of its production facilities at Târgu Mureș is nearing completion. The company said following the complete restart of the facilities and the resumption of production, its fertilizer products will be available “at normal capacity” at Romanian distributors.

The producer began the partial technical overhaul on June 1 and said the work was expected to take a month (GM June 4, p. 32). Azomures did not provide details on which of its production facilities were involved, but there were reports at the time its ammonium nitrate and urea production had been suspended for the overhaul work.

RBC Sees BHP Likely Approving Jansen in August

BHP Ltd. is likely to take a final investment decision on its Jansen Stage 1 project in August, Bloomberg reported this week, citing a note by RBC Director Australian Metals & Mining Equity Analyst Kaan Peker.

Last month, BHP gave what analysts believed was the mining group’s strongest indication to date that it intends to go ahead with the potash project (GM June 18, p. 1). In a 56-page Potash Outlook investor and analyst presentation and briefing on June 17, BHP laid out the pro-case for the potash project, and for the mining group to a become a major new global supplier of the nutrient.

According to Bloomberg, RBC values the Jansen project at $1.2 billion, based on a long-term potash price of $300/mt, equating to 4 to 5 percent of group EBITDA when Stage 1 is ramped up by the end of the decade. Under current plans, BHP’s Stage 1, should it go ahead, would provide 4.3-4.5 million mt/y of potassium chloride production capacity.

RBC believes the mining group is likely to develop all four proposed stages of Jansen, producing 16-17 million mt/y at full capacity by 2035, for a total capex of $22 billion.

However, BHP told analysts and investors at the Potash Outlook briefing that it wants to have a port solution locked in before it takes the FID for Jansen Stage 1 to its board for approval. The group is considering two options regarding a port. One option is a commercial option in the port of Vancouver at an existing facility. The other is a greenfield option at the port, which, according to RBC, would see BHP joining the development of the proposed West Coast Terminal expansion.

But RBC’s base case is that BHP uses existing port facilities at Vancouver.

According to the Bloomberg report this week, RBC believes a partnership on Jansen with an existing potash operator in Canada, such as Nutrien or The Mosaic Co., “makes sense,” citing operating synergies and marketing benefits. However, Nutrien and BHP both have recently downplayed prospects for collaboration (GM June 25, p. 1).

Senate Approves Climate Solutions Act

The U.S. Senate on June 24 passed S.1251, the “Growing Climate Solutions Act of 2021,” in a vote of 92-8. The bill would help boost ag carbon markets by creating a certification process at USDA. Agricultural Retailers Association (ARA) President and CEO Daren Coppock expressed support for the bill and urged the U.S. House to follow suit.

“Agricultural practices will continue to play a key role in climate policy discussions, and it is essential that the ag retail industry is included in any climate-smart ag sustainability solutions,” Coppock said. “ARA contends that these carbon markets should be voluntary and incentive-based. Today’s action is a step in the right direction, and we will continue to ensure that the ag retailer is a part of the conversation as the bill is taken up by the House.”

ARA has supported a range of voluntary federal policy options to encourage carbon sequestration, including a performance-based tax credit modeled after 45Q carbon capture credit; a USDA-led Commodity Credit Corporation carbon bank; and the provision of a one-time payment for early adopters.

ARA has also advocated for changes to USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), including increasing NRCS funding; enhancing work on GHG mitigation and adaptation, and on conservation technical assistance related to soil health and climate outcomes; streamlining the NRCS conservation practice approval process; incentivizing contracts that improve soil carbon and climate resilience; and supporting the use of cover crops to support soil health and cropland sustainability efforts.

ARA also supports establishing a USDA grant program to help states improve soil health on agricultural lands, and directing USDA to conduct a study on the interaction between crop insurance and soil health practices.

Biden Plans Broad Competition Order

The Biden administration is preparing a government-wide plan to encourage competition in markets across the economy, according to people familiar with the process, a move that could have broad implications for industries including technology, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, according to a Bloomberg report.

The White House plans to issue an executive order as soon as next week that would require federal agencies to take steps to promote competition in the industries they oversee, according to the sources.

“The president made clear during his campaign that he is committed to increasing competition in the American economy, including by banning noncompete agreements for workers and protecting farmers from abusive practices, but there is no final decision on any actions at this time,” said White House spokeswoman Emilie Simons.

The move gives Biden a way to focus on the decade-plus consolidation of key consumer-facing industries in the U.S., including airlines and telecommunications. In discussing competition, the order also would let him weigh in on the growth of tech companies such as Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Facebook Inc., whose market sway has stirred bipartisan concerns in Congress.

While there is much banter around tech companies, there has also been considerable consolidation in recent years within the crop input industries.

The order will echo an Obama administration order in 2016 that said government agencies beyond those responsible for antitrust enforcement had a role to play in protecting consumers, workers, and business from being harmed by instances of market power in the economy.

That order built off a report by the Council of Economic Advisers outlining concern about evidence indicating that industries across the U.S. economy suffer from rising consolidation and declining competition. The report recommended that other agencies and departments, such as those overseeing communications and transportation, use regulations to address the problem in addition to traditional antitrust enforcement by the Federal Trade Commission and the Justice Department.

Since then, attention on the power of dominant companies has only grown, as economists and policy makers raise concern that rising concentration is ailing large swaths of the economy and contributing to problems including income inequality, stagnant wages, and low productivity growth.

An executive order by the Biden White House would add to a widespread push for stronger antitrust enforcement in Washington, where bipartisan majorities on the House Judiciary Committee last week advanced six antitrust bills, primarily aimed at the biggest tech companies. The proposals represent an effort to revamp antitrust laws and give competition enforcers more authority.

The hurdles faced by antitrust officials in challenging the conduct of dominant companies was thrust into the spotlight on June 28 when a judge dismissed two monopoly cases against Facebook Inc. that had been brought by the FTC and a coalition of states. The cases accused Facebook of engaging in a strategy of buying companies to eliminate competition and sought to force the divestitures of Instagram and WhatsApp.

Before President Joe Biden took office, antitrust experts urged the administration to look beyond the Justice Department and the FTC to protect competition, arguing that the two enforcers can’t do everything to ensure competitive markets.

“No single part of government can fully revitalize competition on its own,” a report by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth said.

That report recommended that Biden establish a White House Office of Competition Policy to promote new regulations and push a legislative agenda to revitalize antitrust enforcement. Although the president has not taken that step, he named Columbia Law School professor and antitrust expert Tim Wu as a competition adviser in March.

Biden followed Wu’s appointment with the nomination of Lina Khan to the FTC, where she took over as chair earlier this month.

Pakistan Inks $4.5 Billion Deal to Help With Imports

The Pakistan government signed a three-year agreement with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corp. totaling $4.5 billion.

The deal will provide ITFC financing that will allow Pakistan to increase its imports of vital products such as oil, LNG, and fertilizers. The deal will also allow the ITFC to work with the Pakistan government to help it deal with the rising costs of petroleum-based imports.

According to a Bloomberg report, the deal will allow state-owned Pakistan State Oil, Pak-Arab Refinery, and Pakistan LNG to import product through 2023.

The move will also ease pressure on the country’s limited foreign reserves.

No details of what specific products will be covered under this agreement were released at the time of the signing.

Compass Completes Sale of South American Specialty Fertilizer Business to ICL

Compass Minerals, Overland Park, Kan., announced on July 1 that it has completed the sale of the company’s South America specialty plant nutrition business to a subsidiary of ICL Group, Tel Aviv (GM March 26, p. 1).

Upon closing, Compass said it received gross sale proceeds of R$2.16 billion, or approximately $432 million based on current exchange rates, comprised of a cash payment of approximately $325 million including $12 million in working capital adjustments, and an additional $107 million in net debt assumed by ICL.

Compass is also eligible for an additional payment of up to approximately R$88 million in 2022, assuming the maximum amount of earn-out consideration. As previously announced, the company intends to use proceeds from the sale primarily to pay down debt.

The company’s South American chemicals business was not included in this completed transaction, and that prior-announced sale process is ongoing.

USDA Raises Corn/Soybean Planting Estimates, But Trails Analyst Expectations

U.S. corn growers planted 92.7 million acres of corn this year, according to USDA’s June 30 Acreage report, up from the March 31 Prospective Plantings estimate of 91.1 million acres. This year’s planted acreage figure was also up two percent, or 1.87 million acres, from last year, and reflects the highest planted acreage total since 2016.

The corn acreage increase was expected in the wake of higher corn prices and favorable planting weather, but fell below analyst expectations. A Bloomberg Survey before the report’s release yielded an average forecast of 93.8 million acres.

Compared with last year, planted acreage increased in the Cornbelt states of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio, but remained unchanged in Iowa and fell slightly in Nebraska. The largest year-over-year increase occurred in drought-stricken North Dakota, which jumped to more than 24 million acres of corn this year, compared with nearly 21 million in 2020.

Planted soybean acreage is estimated at 87.6 million acres, unchanged from the March Prospective Plantings projection, but up five percent from last year and reflecting the highest acreage since 2018. USDA’s soybean acreage projection fell short of the average Bloomberg Survey forecast of 89.1 million, however.

Corn and soybean futures saw significant gains after the report’s release, with corn jumping by the exchange limit to $5.885/bushel, up as much as 7.3 percent from earlier in the day. Soybeans reached $14.0125/bushel after the report’s release, gaining 6.8 percent for their biggest rise since 2009.

“This surprise reduction in corn planted area sets a price floor for corn and soybean prices into 3Q, and ensures the market remains in ration mode as we head into the main growing season amid parched soils and a market hungry for corn,” said Alexis Maxwell, Green Markets Research Director.

“Though corn prices rose significantly after the report, fertilizer prices have risen more and demand destruction remains a big risk in 4Q,” Maxwell added. “This fall, as U.S. farmers go to apply fertilizers, they’ll see shockingly higher affordability ratios. The potash-to-corn affordability ratio has risen 41 percent from this period last year, and even in spite of corn’s limit up move on Wednesday.”

All wheat planted area for 2021 is pegged at 46.7 million acres, up slightly from the March estimate of 46.4 million acres and up five percent from 2020, but still reflecting the fourth lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. Of that total, winter wheat planted area is estimated at 33.7 million acres this year, with spring wheat at 11.6 million acres and durum at 1.48 million acres.

All cotton planted area for 2021 is estimated at 11.7 million acres, down from the March projection of 12.0 million acres and three percent lower than last year. This year’s rice crop is estimated at 2.66 million planted acres, down from 3.04 million acres last year.

USDA’s Natural Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) also released the quarterly Grain Stocks report on June 30, which showed dramatically lower stockpiles of corn and soybeans versus a year ago. Corn stocks totaled 4.11 billion bushels, down 18 percent from the same time last year. On-farm corn stocks were down 39 percent from a year ago, but off-farm stocks were up 11 percent.

Soybeans stored totaled 767 million bushels, down 44 percent from June 1, 2020. On-farm soybean stocks were down 65 percent from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were down 27 percent. All wheat stored totaled 844 million bushels, down 18 percent from a year ago. On-farm all wheat stocks were down 38 percent from last year, while off-farm stocks were down 12 percent.

CF Requests U.S. Investigation of UAN Imports from Russia and Trinidad

CF Industries Holdings Inc., Deerfield, Ill., on June 30 filed petitions with the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) and the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) requesting the initiation of antidumping and countervailing duty investigations (CVD) on imports of urea ammonium nitrate solutions (UAN) from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago (Trinidad).

“For too long, UAN producers in the United States, who are among the most efficient in the world, have competed on an uneven playing field due to dumped and unfairly subsidized imports from Russia and Trinidad,” said Tony Will, CF President and CEO. “The duties we are seeking will restore fairness to our highly competitive industry and help ensure that American UAN producers remain a reliable source of fertilizers for American farmers for years to come.”

CF said in May it was taking a hard look at bringing a CVD case regarding UAN imports from Russia and Trinidad (GM May 7, p. 1). At the time, CF noted that The Mosaic Co.’s successful CVD case against Russian phosphate imports included findings of subsidized natural gas.

CF added that the gas angle was even less in DAP and MAP, but that it would be 70-80 percent of the cost of UAN production. “So, when ITC found that there was subsidized gas and therefore duties that the Russians need to pay, you know if that’s true on MAP and DAP, it should be for UAN,” said CF Senior Vice President and CFO Chris Bohn.

In first-quarter 2021, CF’s UAN segment had the worst performance by far of its five segments, posting a gross margin of only $2 million on net sales of $232 million, down from the year-ago $42 million and $235 million, respectively (GM May 7, p. 32). It was the only CF segment to see a price decrease.

The U.S. became a more attractive market for Russian and Trinidad producers in 2019 when the European Union imposed duties on imports from Russia, Trinidad, and the U.S. (GM Oct. 11, 2019).

According to the CF petition, UAN imports from Russia topped 1.7 million st for calendar year 2019, up from 2018’s 1.23 million st. However, they have been on the decline since then. Trinidad imports topped out at 996,136 st in 2020, up from 2019’s 942,578 st. They have also been on the decline.

The most recent data has Russian imports at 843,812 st for the current fertilizer year July 2020-April 2021, down 31.2 percent from the year-ago 1.23 million st (GM June 18, p. 1). Trinidad imports were off only 1.9 percent, to 792,817 st from 807,983 st. Total imports were down 14.3 percent for the fertilizer year, to 2.1 million st from the year-ago 2.44 million st.

However, North American UAN NOLA prices have been under pressure since December 2018, losing their premium over urea and dragging the bottom last July-August at $115/st FOB. Significant improvement did not come until the current fertilizer rally that lifted all boats.

In the coming weeks, DOC will decide whether to initiate investigations to determine the extent of dumping and unfair subsidies associated with the imports, and the ITC will initiate a concurrent investigation to determine whether such imports materially injure the U.S. industry. CF said it intends to participate actively in proceedings before both agencies.

Leigh Creek Energy Awards EPCCF Contract for Urea Project

Adelaide-based Leigh Creek Energy (LCK) has awarded the contract for the development of the full commercial stage (Stage 2) of its Leigh Creek Energy Project (LCEP) in South Australia to South Korean engineering and construction company DL E&C Co. Ltd., Bloomberg reported.

LCK plans to establish a 1 million mt/y urea facility utilizing in-situ gasification (ISG) at LCEP, located some 550 kilometers north of Adelaide and overlaying the Leigh Creek coalfield (GM Jan. 22, p. 1).

A letter of support from a major South Korean bank has been issued to provide debt finance for up to 70 percent, or about A$1.5 billion (approximately US$1.13 billion at current exchange rates) of the Stage 2 project costs.

DL E&C will make an immediate start on the Bankable Feasibility Study for LCEP, and will manage the front-end engineering and design (FEED) stages, with a Final Investment Decision expected in late 2022, according to the report.

Following a favorable FID, the South Korean contractor will then perform the EPCCF activities for the urea production plant

LCK and DL E&C inked a binding Heads of Agreement in early May to exclusively negotiate the terms of a proposed agreement for the feasibility study, front end engineering and design (FEED) stages, and engineering, procurement, construction, and commissioning (EPCC) for the project (GM May 7, p. 43).

LCK’s Board in March gave the green light for the Stage 1 commercial development of the LCEP. This Stage 1 comprises drilling of up to five initial gasification wells to provide feedstock syngas and the construction of a 5 MW power plant (GM March 19, p. 1).

Pakistan Signs $4.5 Billion Deal to Help With Imports

The Pakistan government signed a three-year agreement with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corp. totaling $4.5 billion.

The deal will provide ITFC financing that will allow Pakistan to increase its imports of vital products such as oil, LNG, and fertilizers. The deal will also allow the ITFC to work with the Pakistan government to help it deal with the rising costs of petroleum-based imports.

According to a Bloomberg report, the deal will allow state-owned Pakistan State Oil, Pak-Arab Refinery, and Pakistan LNG to import product through 2023.

The move will also ease pressure on the country’s limited foreign reserves.

No details of what specific products will be covered under this agreement were released at the time of the signing.