All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Both Nutrien, BHP Downplay Prospects for Collaboration

Australia, Featured, News, Potash, Saskatchewan

Nutrien Ltd., Saskatoon, is not focused on collaboration with BHP regarding that company’s Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, according to an interview with Nutrien Executive Vice President of Potash Ken Seitz reported by the National Post.

“Today it’s not our focus,” said Seitz, when asked about the potential partnership. “I’ll just say that everything you’ve seen is speculative and inaccurate.”

Media reports were circulating last month that BHP was in talks with Nutrien about a potential partnership in the Jansen potash project (GM May 28, p. 17; June 18, p. 1). The parties were reported to be discussing multiple options, including Nutrien becoming the operator and selling the potash through its existing channels, or the Canadian company taking a stake in the Jansen mine, according to sources familiar with the matter.

However, for its part, BHP on June 17 indicated to investors and analysts that a partnership on Jansen was not on its immediate horizon. BHP’s Mineral Americas President Ragnar Udd, at a BHP Potash Outlook presentation and briefing, said the mining group is currently focused on getting Jansen to a position where it can take stage 1 of the Jansen project to BHP’s Board for a Final Investment Decision (FID).

Udd also had reiterated earlier comments by BHP CEO Mike Henry that the mining group doesn’t need a partner “to make Jansen work.”

Responding to a question around BHP’s potential marketing and distribution strategy for Jansen potash, he told analysts and investors that, “We believe based on our experience in terms of bulks and recognizing the norm across the industry, we believe the best way to maximize long-term value of the Jansen asset is to control our own production and logistics supply change and sales.”

However, Udd earlier emphasized that BHP was not adverse to bringing in a partner for the project, noting that the majority of BHP’s assets do have some sort of partner.

At the June 17 event, BHP gave its strongest indication to date that it intends to go ahead with Jansen. In its 56-page presentation, it laid out the pro-case for the potash project, and for the mining group to become a major new global supplier of the nutrient.

However, the group signaled the FID on whether to proceed with its Jansen Stage 1 project may be delayed beyond the earlier indicated “mid-calendar year” date as it considers port options for the project.

E.U. Imposes Sanctions on Belarusian Economy, Including Potash

Belarus, Europe, Featured, News, Potash

The European Union (E.U.) on June 24 imposed a sweeping set of sanctions against the Belarusian regime, targeting key economic sectors. As anticipated, the new targeted economic sanctions include restrictions on Belarus’ potash trade.

The measures are the E.U.’s strongest response yet to the forced landing of a Ryanair flight and the arrest of journalist Raman Pratasevich and his girlfriend in Minsk on May 23 (GM May 28, p. 1), as well as what the E.U. bloc called “the escalation of serious human rights violations” and “violent repression” in Belarus, according to an E.U. Council statement on June 24.

The sanctions cover imports of Belarus potash into E.U. countries and a transit ban via E.U countries, as well as Belarus NPK fertilizers.

However, in its Official Journal, the E.U. does not include in its list of potash to be sanctioned, “potassium chloride with a potassium content evaluated as K2O by weight, exceeding 40 percent, but not exceeding 60 percent on the dry anhydrous product.”

E.U. List of Potassium Chloride Products Subject to Sanctions

Name of the good Combined Nomenclature (CN) code
Potassium chloride with a potassium content evaluated as K2O, by weight, not exceeding 40% on the dry anhydrous product 3104 20 10
Potassium chloride with a potassium content evaluated as K2O, by weight, exceeding 62% on the dry anhydrous product 3104 20 90
Mineral or chemical fertilisers containing the three fertilising elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium 3105 20 10 3105 20 90
Mineral or chemical fertilisers containing the two fertilising elements phosphorus and potassium 3105 60 00
Other fertilisers containing potassium chloride ex 3105 90 20 ex 3105 90 80

’

This grade is one of Belarus’ key export products, and according to a note by Russia’s VTB Capital analyst Elena Sakhnova, cited by Bloomberg, this grade accounts for 80 percent of Belarus’ supplies to the E.U.

Belarus rails most of its potash for export to the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda, using Lithuanian Railways. Biriu Kroviniu Terminalas (Bulk Cargo Terminal [BKT]), in which Belaruskali owns a 30 percent stake, transships the potash at Klaipeda. BKT handles between 10-11 million mt of Belarusian potash annually

Crucially, Belarus’ current supply contracts with India and China are not subject to the Brussels sanctions. The E.U. states in the Official Journal: “The prohibitions in paragraph 1 shall be without prejudice to the execution of contracts concluded before 25 June 2021, or ancillary contracts necessary for the execution of such contracts.”

According to the head of Lithuanian Railways, cited by a report by Canada’s National Post, the sanctions imposed on Belarus potash have put limits on about 20 percent of exports of the nutrient shipped by Lithuania.

Belarus and Russia in February inked an agreement on routing transshipments of Belarusian oil products through Russian ports, but Belarus Transport and Communications Minister Alexei Avramenko said at the time the shipment of Belarusian potash via Russian ports would need more consideration.

Belarusian Potash Co. (BPC) said on June 25 it would make every effort to meet its commitments to customers, and every type of product was important to the company, irrespective of the volumes supplied.

With the economic sanctions looming, BPC earlier this week warned given that Belarusian potash accounts for more than 20 percent of the world’s exports, restricting a significant volume of supplies would inevitably lead to “an irreplaceable shortage” of potash and “a sharp rise” in prices for the nutrient, and as a result, “food prices would rise the world over”, according to an Interfax report.

The Belarus marketer and exporter said causing a severe shortage of potash in the market “would undermine the foundations of international food security,” and “would be certain to slow the development of world agriculture.”

Belarus exported 11.75 million mt  of potash last year, according to Trade Data Monitor (TDM).

Potash is Belarus’ second top export after refined oil products, and in 2019 Belarus’ potash and oil exports together accounted for some 25 percent of the country’s exports in U.S. dollar terms, according to UN Comtrade data. Exports of the nutrient last year netted Belarus some $2.41 billion, according to Belarus’ National Statistical Service (Belstat). Bloomberg reported proceeds from potash exports increased by 18 percent year-over-year in the January-April period this year, reaching $834 million.

In addition to the Belarus potash sector, the new economic sanctions include restrictions on trade in oil products and goods used for the production or manufacturing of tobacco products.

The E.U. sanctions against Belarus are designed to target industries which play a big role for the country’s income and aim to “drain the [Lukashenko] regime’s financial resources,” Bloomberg reported, citing Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas early this week ahead of discussions at the European bloc’s Foreign Affairs Council.

The E.U. already has sanctions in place against seven Belarusian entities and 88 individuals, including Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko, imposed following the disputed presidential election on Aug. 9 and the regime’s subsequent brutal crackdown on protests and protestors (GM Aug. 21, 2020). The E.U. does not recognize Lukashenko as Belarus’ legitimate president.

Following the forced landing of the Ryanair flight, the European bloc on June 4 imposed a ban on Belarusian carriers flying over European airspace, as well as a ban on their landing and taking off from the E.U.’s airports.

The new measures ratified on June 24 also prohibit the supply, sale, and transfer of equipment used for monitoring or intercepting communications and dual-use goods and technologies for military use.

Access to E.U. capital markets is also restricted, and the new sanctions prohibit E.U. companies from providing insurance or re-insurance to the Belarusian government and public bodies. Under the measures agreed, the European Investment Bank is also to cease any payments under existing agreements with the Belarusian public sector.

The move comes after the E.U., the U.S., and the U.K. and Canada sanctioned dozens of Belarusian individuals and organizations in a move aimed at pressurizing the Lukashenko government.

The E.U. alone nearly doubled the number of individuals and entities previously sanctioned, adding 86 people and entities to its list. Several of the individuals are top businessmen, including Russian billionaire Mikhail Gutseriev, who is described as a long-term friend of Lukashenko, according to some media reports. Gutseriev is the main backer of Slavkaliy Co., which is developing the Nezhinsky potash mine and processing plant in eastern Belarus.

The U.S.’ Biden administration has sanctioned Belarus’ top prosecutor, as well as Lukashenko’s top spokesperson, among other of the Belarus president’s associates, and also the chairwoman of Belarus’ upper house of parliament.

According to The Mosaic Co. President and CEO Joc O’Rourke, presenting at the Exane BNP Paribas 23rd European CEO Virtual Conference on June 7, some 700,000 mt of potash a year comes into the U.S. from Belarus.

The new sanctions provoked an angry reaction from Belarus. The country’s foreign ministry warned that Belarus would be forced to take retaliatory measures that would hurt Western companies. Belarus’ state-owned news agency, BelTA, reported that during a working trip to Grodno Oblast on June 24 Lukashenko blasted Western sanctions against Belarus “as testifying to their impotence.”

Fertiglobe Joins Blue Ammonia Project in Ruwais

ADNOC - Abu Dhabi, Ammonia, Hydrogen, News, News Briefs, Nitrogen

Fertiglobe, the OCI-Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) ammonia and urea joint venture, has signed an agreement with Ta’ziz to join a blue ammonia production project in the Ta’ziz industrial and chemicals hub in Ruwais, OCI NV reported on June 22.

ADNOC announced last month that it had awarded a contract for the initial design of the plant, which will have capacity to produce as much as 1 million mt/y of blue ammonia (GM  May 28, p.33).

Ta’ziz is a joint-venture between ADNOC and Abu Dhabi holding company ADQ, which will supply the proposed project with hydrogen and nitrogen feedstocks.

OCI said the parties will jointly conduct pre-FEED and FEED activities, with a final investment decision expected in 2022, and start-up targeted for 2025. The agreement remains subject to regulatory approvals.

OCI NV Executive Chairman and Fertiglobe CEO Nassef Sawiris said this extension of the company’s partnership with ADNOC “fits well in OCI’s strategy to decarbonize its global and regional platforms, and helps grow OCI’s low carbon and Clean Fuels product offering”.

Sawiris said it also capitalizes on “the huge potential” OCI expects ammonia to offer as part of the accelerated global shift to clean energy and as enabler for the hydrogen economy.

Urea

Africa, Brazil, China, Croatia, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Nigeria, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

It is almost July, and time was starting to catch up with the NOLA urea barge market. The latest trades were put in the $413.50-$430/st FOB range, down from the week-ago $430-$465/st FOB. However, sources said the inland market still had some steam.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices were reported at $475-$485/st FOB terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, reflecting a tighter range from the prior week. Both the high and low ends of the range were reported in Cincinnati, Ohio, during the week, with the Ottawa, Ill., market pegged firmly at the $485/st FOB level at midweek.

Western Cornbelt:

The urea market was quoted at $470-$480/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in late June, with the low reported at Camanche and Port Neal, Iowa, and the upper end at St. Louis, Mo. Urea pricing at St. Paul, Minn., had reportedly firmed to $490-$505/st FOB for new offers.

Southern Plains:

Urea prices continued to climb in the Southern Plains, fueled by tight supply and strong demand. The Houston, Texas, market was quoted at a firm $490/st FOB at midweek, while pricing at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., reportedly strengthened to $500-$505/st FOB as the week progressed.

South Central:

Urea pricing in the South Central region was up amid reports of tight supply. The market was pegged at $475-$495/st FOB, up another $5-$10/st from the prior week, with the low at Memphis, Tenn., and the high confirmed at Shreveport, La. Sources reported the last offers out of Convent, La., firmly at the $475/st FOB level, with most Arkansas terminals pegged at the $485/st FOB level.

Southeast:

Urea prices were up in the Southeast. Sources pegged the market at $480-$485/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., up roughly $10-$15/st from the previous week, while pricing at Fairless Hills, Pa., firmed to $490/st FOB for June/July tons, up from $485/st FOB one week earlier.

India:

The RCF tender closed on June 24 with 13 companies offering 1.8 million, and prices jumped, as expected.

Dreymoor came in with the lowest offers for both coasts at $509.95/mt CFR for Kakinada on the East Coast and $501.96/mt for delivery to Pipavav on the West Coast. These numbers represent a jump of $84/mt for West Coast pricing and $101/mt for the East Coast.

At the beginning of the week, traders were predicting prices might come around $472-$474/mt CFR, which would represent a significant jump from the $409-$419/mt CFR done in the last tender. By the end of the week, however, more were talking about $505/mt CFR for the West Coast and $510/mt CFR for the East Coast.

Offering Company US$/mt CFR Quantity (mt) Discharge Port
Dreymoor 509.95 50,000 Kakinada L1 ECI
501.96 52,000 Pipavav L1 WCI
Amber 543.50 50,000 Krishnapatnam-Karaikal-Paradip-Kakinada
546.50 50,000 Mundra-Adani Tuna-Pipavav
Ameropa 520.00 61,500 Kakinada
520.00 51,500 Gangavaram
520.00 45,000 Vizag
511.00 52,500 Mundra
511.00 50,000 Pipavav
511.00 50,000 Kandla
511.00 51,500 Mundra
511.00 61,500 Pipavav
OQ Trading 509.00 50,000 Mundra
Continental 521.00 45,000 Mundra-Kandla-Adani Tuna
Midgulf 519.00 50,000 Gangavaram
523.00 50,000 Mundra
Keytrade 522.00 50,000 Kakinada
Koch 536.00 50,000 Krishnapatnam
536.00 50,000 Kakinada
Medallion 544.99 60,000 Gangavaram-Krishnapatnam-Karaikal-Kakinada-Paradip
50,000 Kandla-Pipavav-Adani Tuna-Mundra
Samsung 521.25 90,000 Kakinada
521.30 90,000 Krishnapatnam
521.35 45,000 Karaikal
524.00 45,000 New Mangalore
524.05 45,000 Kandla
524.10 90,000 Mundra
Swiss Singapore 533.00 47,000 Gangavaram-Paradip-Kakinada-Vizag
533.05 47,000 Tuticorin-Kamarajar-Krishnapatnam-Karaikal
518.25 47,000 Mundra-Adani Tuna-Kandla
518.30 48,000 Pipavav-Adani Dahej-New Mangalore-Adani Hazira-Jaigarh
Transglobe 521.00 50,000 Paradip
Gavilon 512.88 90,000 Karaikal

Sources noted that no urea producer directly offered tons to RCF. Even without their direct presence, the producers are well represented in the offers to the West Coast. Ameropa and OQ are both most likely offering tons from Oman. No one could offer any single reason for the absence of the producers in this tender. Often some will join in with very high prices just to let the Indian buyers know they are interested.

One observer suggested that the volatile freight market could have led the producers to let the traders take the risk of rising transportation costs. Even if the producers do not actively provide transportation for any material purchased on an FOB basis, sources said they would be under pressure to lower their prices to meet changes in the freight market.

The nearly $100/mt jump in price for the East Coast was attributed to a combination of transportation costs, higher prices for the product, and uncertainty about supplies from China.

Sources said the rising price of fuel added to the basic transportation cost. What is really hitting the transportation market, however, is the disruption in vessel placements in the region and a continued reluctance of ship owners to send their vessels to India because of COVID-related concerns.

All told, sources estimate 750,000-800,000 mt might be awarded in the tender. There are already rumors that one or two cargoes from Chinese ports will really be Iranian urea run through the Chinese ports for re-export.

The information released by RCF showed 977,000 mt offered to East Coast ports and 837,500 mt offered to the West Coast. The ratio between the two sides of the country is not unusual. So far this year, only the May 4 MMTC tender had more offers to the West Cost than to the East Coast. In the end, the limited amount of material available from China in each case has limited the amount of urea shipped to the East Coast.

No tender this year has secured more than 802,000 mt. Sources said purchases closer to 1.2 million mt were needed each time to fill demand. The lack of securing the necessary tons, said one trader, has India running behind this season. Even with the long Aug. 11 shipping deadline, sources said the chances are good that another tender will need to be called within a couple of weeks.

China:

The export duty on urea that seemed an almost done deal last week has reportedly been put on the backburner in favor of a plan to let the state absorb the cost of the ever-rising price of urea instead of the farmer. Sources said a one-time subsidy plan of US$3 billion is being planned to counter the hot urea market.

Prior to the rumors of the subsidy plan, traders and producers quickly moved at least 150,000 mt of urea to portside warehouses. Sources said the move was an effort to get the urea registered in the bonded warehouses and ready for export before the duty was imposed on urea still officially in the country.

Sources said this tonnage, and possibly an additional 100,000 mt, could provide the basis for offers into the RCF India tender. Besides the Chinese product in the warehouses, sources said product from Iran is being cycled through some Chinese ports and may be included in several of the offers made to the Indian buyer.

For the most part, everyone was quiet about pricing from China. There were some reports of small cargoes of granular urea going to regional offshore buyers at $450/mt FOB. If true, and many in the industry do accept this rumor as true, this would move up the benchmark price to the upper end of last week’s range.

To add fuel to the hot market, sources also reported deals of July shipments of 15,000-20,000 mt in the low-$450s/mt FOB. However, the low price for the East Coast of India now shows a possible netback in the mid-$480s/mt FOB.

Chinese urea exports for the first five months of the year were up about 30 percent, to 1.9 million mt from 1.5 million mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main buyers this year were India at 682,000 mt and South Korea at 322,000 mt.

May exports were essentially stable at 601,000 mt, compared with 600,000 mt in May 2020. The main buyer in May was India at 188,000 mt, which represented a drop of about 41 percent from the 320,000 mt exported to India in May 2020.

Middle East:

Arab Gulf suppliers all claim they are sold out well into July and have limited tons for anything going into June. And that includes the RCF tender.

Industry observers noted the absence of producers in the offers revealed by RCF when the tender closed on June 24. Even without the producers directly offering tons, most of the product marked for the West Coast of India is expected to be covered out of the Arab Gulf. Sources speculated that maybe 100,000 mt might come from the Baltic or Black Seas and another 100,000 mt from other sources.

The low West Cost offer in the RCF tender at $501.96/mt CFR indicates a netback to the Arab Gulf of $470-$475/mt FOB. That level would surpass what the paper market is currently calling for the area. The July derivative price is quoted at $460/mt FOB and the August price at $463/mt FOB.

Even these paper market prices are higher than the last publicly done business, which had the Arab Gulf topping off at $450/mt FOB.

Egyptian producers remain hesitant to offer tons for export. While the government has decreed each producer has a responsibility to ensure plenty of urea for the domestic market through August, sources said it has not issued quotas for the producers. As a result, producers have pulled back from offering tons at a time when the global market needs urea.

Besides the Indian urea tender, sources said Ethiopia is looking for about 218,000 mt. Egypt is in a good location to supply material to Ethiopia, but only if producers can be assured they will not be penalized for exporting their product.

The lack of new deals leaves the July and early August price at $408-$415/mt FOB, based on deals concluded in May and early June.

Nigeria:

Bloomberg reported that Dangote is ready to begin shipping urea to the U.S. and Brazil as early as this month. The urea will come from the new 3 million mt/y plant that just began operations.

The first wave of product from the plant was shipped by trucks to local distributors. The company said about half of its production will be dedicated to the domestic market and some regional African sales. The remaining 1.5 million mt will be offered on the global market.

On the heels of the company’s announcement early in the week, sources reported that a major trading house was shopping around for vessels to take urea from Nigeria to NOLA and Paranagua. By the end of the week, however, the search for a U.S.-bound ship seemed to have run out of steam.

Brazilian buyers have been anxious for the Dangote facility to get up and running. Sources said the steaming time from Nigeria to Brazilian ports shaves about a week off the delivery time for product from North Africa and the Arab Gulf. In past statements, Dangote has also indicated it was eying the Brazilian market as its main buyer.

Efforts to get an idea of pricing from Dangote have proven difficult. Traders reported that numerous calls to Dangote officials have not been returned. E-mails and other efforts by publications to learn more details about the upcoming shipments have also not been answered.

Ethiopia:

A tender to close on June 28 for 218,000 mt of granular urea was called by the EABC. Sources said the regional bank is looking for tons to fill out cargoes that were not covered in a late 2020 tender.

The tender is asking for shipment in August and September, but sources said the buyer will be hard pressed to find any material available at that time.

Egyptian and Arab Gulf producers are the most likely suppliers for this tender. So far, the Egyptians are hesitant to commit to exporting any material because of a government order to focus on the domestic market. At the same time, the Arab Gulf producers have claimed they are sold out into August. To make matters worse for the Ethiopians, the RCF tender from India will probably take whatever tons might be available into early August.

Brazil:

Upward pressure continues on urea pricing in Paranagua. Sources said the price is now at $485-$505/mt CFR, with limited tons available. The dearth of product, said one source, could lead to even higher prices in the coming weeks.

The inland situation is not much better, but the reluctance of buyers to step up has softened the price. Sources said Rondonopolis has now settled around $600/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sellers have tossed their weekly price lists and are now operating on a day-to-day basis on pricing and availability.

Croatia:

Nitrogen and NPK producer Petrokemija on June 23 said it will extend the shutdown of its ammonia and urea plants for technical maintenance. The producer in a bourse filing said the plants will be restarted “once all technical conditions are in place.”

The shutdowns originally were planned to run from May 28 to June 11 “to enable the optimization of production according to market demand and allow the necessary repair and maintenance of equipment in order to minimize the risk of unplanned shutdowns during the autumn season.” (GM May 28, p. 7).

Petrokemija in its latest filing reiterated that output supplies had been coordinated with buyers, with no supply disruptions.

UAN

Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Players were already reporting that the NOLA UAN market was starting to move off the longstanding $300/st FOB barge price, and then Nutrien came out with a fill program on June 24 at $280/st ($8.75/unit) FOB NOLA equivalent for July-September shipments.

The order book closes on July 1 unless the company fills its order book earlier. Prices are then up $20/st on new orders for shipment not before Oct. 1.

“The overall nitrogen market continues to stay firm,” the company said. “This price represents a slight reset to current prices, but with inland urea values strengthening, the Indian urea tender in play (at ~$500/mt CFR), and the $50/mt increase in Tampa ammonia for July, we feel this price is very reasonable.”

Eastern Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market remained in a broad range at $332-$370/st ($10.38-$11.56/unit) FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Seneca, Ill., and the high at Terre Haute, Ind. The market FOB Peru, Ill., was unchanged at the $337/st ($10.53/unit) level, with Cincinnati and Mount Vernon, Ind., pricing in the $350-$355/st ($10.94-$11.09/unit) range. The UAN-28 market remained at $310-$312/st ($11.07-$11.14/unit) FOB Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was steady at $345-$355/st ($10.78-$11.09/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with pricing at St. Louis and Port Neal pegged at the $350/st ($10.94/unit) FOB level in late June.

Southern Plains:

The UAN-32 market was steady at $340-$350/st ($10.63-$10.94/unit) FOB Kansas terminals, Oklahoma production points, and Gulf Coast terminals in Texas.

South Central:

The UAN-32 market was quoted at $340-$353/st ($10.63-$11.03/unit) FOB terminals in the South Central region, down slightly from last report, with the lower end of the range at Memphis and the high reported by Kentucky sources out of spot Ohio River locations.

Southeast:

The UAN-32 market remained at $315-$325/st ($9.84-$10.16/unit) FOB terminals in the Southeast, with the low out of inland tanks in Georgia and the high FOB Wilmington and other port terminals. In the Northeast, UAN-32 pricing at Fairless Hills moved to $335/st ($10.47/unit) FOB, down $5/st from last report.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, France, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium nitrate pricing was quoted at $425-$430/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt for the latest offers, down $25-$35/st from last report.

Southern Plains:

The ammonium nitrate market in late June was quoted at $420-$425/st FOB Catoosa/Inola and Muskogee, Okla.

South Central:

Ammonium nitrate pricing had reportedly slipped to $385/st FOB Yazoo City, Miss., with river terminals ranging from $415-$425/st FOB in the South Central region, down $15-$20/st from last report.

Southeast:

The Tampa ammonium nitrate market was quoted at $340/st FOB for the last offers.

France:

Yara on June 21 announced a new list price for ammonium nitrate 33.5 percent (YaraBelaExtran33.5) in France at €360/mt bulk CPT for August deliveries, with immediate effect for only limited volumes.

The new posting is a €20/mt increase on Yara’s list price for July deliveries, announced on June 1 (GM June 4, p. 8).

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Ammonium sulfate barge prices continued to firm, with the latest trades called $295-$300/st FOB, up from the week-ago $290-$300/st FOB. As with urea, however, sources noted that it is starting to get late in the season for ammonium sulfate, and the question is how long those numbers can last.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market was reported in the $320-$350/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at East Dubuque, Ill., and the high out of inland warehouses on a spot basis. Sources pegged the Cincinnati market at $325-$330/st FOB in late June, with Ottawa pricing quoted at the $340/st FOB level.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium sulfate prices were quoted at $320-$350/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis and Camanche and the high reported at Sioux City, Iowa.

Southern Plains:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was pegged at $290-$315/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with both the high and low reported out of Houston. The Catoosa/Inola market was quoted firmly at the $310/st FOB level at midweek, with some speculating that a move to $320-$325/st FOB was likely in the near term.

South Central:

Ammonium sulfate prices ranged broadly in the South Central region, from a low of $295-$300/st FOB Memphis to a high of $340/st FOB Shreveport and Little Rock, Ark.

Southeast:

Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $300/st FOB Hopewell, Va., with mid-grade referenced at $280/st FOB and standard at $260/st FOB Hopewell. The last postings from IOC included $325/st FOB Tampa, Fla. Delivered pricing in Florida was unchanged at $290/st for standard and $340/st for granular.

China:

The ammonium sulfate market remains hot in Southeast Asia and Brazil, which in turn keeps the price up in China.

Sources said supply and demand are just balanced enough to hold prices for caprolactam-grade amsul in the upper-$180s/mt FOB. While this represents an upward movement at the lower end of the price range from previous weeks, sources said the tightening of the range was expected.

Additional sales and additional demand from Turkey are also helping provide a solid floor for Chinese product.

Chinese ammonium sulfate exports in the first five months of the year were up about 30 percent, to 3.9 million mt from 3 million mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The top five buyers this year were Brazil at 696,000 mt, Indonesia at 446,000 mt, Vietnam at 390,000 mt, Myanmar at 375,000 mt, and Turkey at 253,000 mt.

May exports were up 55.5 percent, to 799,000 mt from 514,000 mt in May 2020. The top two buyers this year were Brazil at 96,000 mt and Nigeria at 94,000 mt.

Brazil:

The market at Paranagua tightened to $270/mt CFR for granular and $274/mt CFR for standard amsul. Sources said few deals were done this week, with most people just talking about what prices should be.

The Rondonopolis price also shifted to just one price of $360/mt FOB ex-warehouse as limited buyers talked about limited tons. As with other commodities, sellers have scrapped their weekly price lists in favor of cutting deals when, where, and however they can.

DAP/MAP

Bangladesh, Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Saudi Arabia, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Sources noted Central Florida DAP postings steady at $620/st FOB for the week, unmoved from the previous report. Truck-loaded MAP was also flat, with prices reported at $655/st FOB. MAP trucks were offered at $640/st FOB out of North Florida, a $20/st increase on the week-ago $620/st FOB.

U.S. Gulf:

Last-done phosphate barge pricing at NOLA took a breather for the week, sources reported, with few confirmed sales leading to similar week-over-week valuations.

DAP barges continued to see sales and offers at a $615/st FOB floor for domestically produced tons, steady from the prior report, while traders reported a second consecutive week of $620/st FOB offers failing to find buyers. A rumored early-week $625/st FOB transaction went unconfirmed on June 24.

Domestic MAP barges changed hands at a $650/st FOB low, steady from one week earlier, while sources pointed to highs continuing at approximately $655/st FOB.

A blockbuster deal with JPMC to bring up to 400,000 mt of Jordanian-produced phosphates to the U.S. was reported this week, although the buyer remained unconfirmed at press time. The agreement, set to run from July 2021 through February 2022, illustrated the market’s ongoing push to locate alternative sources of imported phosphates following the DOC’s determination to apply added duties to tons originating from both Morocco and Russia.

The nearby DAP barge market was quoted at $615-$619/st FOB for the week, rolling over from the prior report. MAP pricing was similarly unchanged at $650-$655/st FOB.

U.S. Exports:

Nothing new was reported on the week’s Gulf export phosphate markets. Last-done included a 6,000 mt DAP cargo, priced at $650/mt FOB and slated for delivery to a single-market destination in Latin America, as well as a 5,000 mt MAP load valued at $685/mt FOB, also bound for Latin America.

With no new business reported, the Gulf DAP export market continued at $650/mt FOB for DAP and $685/st FOB for MAP.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP prices edged up to $640-$650/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, some $5/st higher at the low end of the range. The MAP market was quoted at $680-$695/st FOB in the region, with the upper end reported at Ottawa. The Cincinnati MAP market was pegged at $680-$690/st FOB in late June.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP firmed to $640-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up another $5/st at the low end of the range. MAP was quoted at $685-$700/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Camanche and St. Louis. The St. Paul, Minn., market was pegged at $645-$650/st FOB for DAP and $690-$700/st FOB for MAP.

Southern Plains:

DAP prices were pegged at a firm $660/st FOB Houston and $645-$660/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, up another $10-$15/st from last report. The MAP market had reportedly jumped to $690/st FOB Houston and $690-$700/st FOB Catoosa/Inola.

“DAP and MAP are available, but reported to be in short supply,” said one regional contact at midweek.

South Central:

DAP prices firmed to $630-$655/st FOB in the South Central region, up $10-$15/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Little Rock and the high at Shreveport. The Memphis DAP market was pegged in the $640-$645/st FOB range in late June.

Southeast:

Nutrien’s DAP and MAP prices at Aurora, N.C., firmed to $640/st FOB, up $20/st from the previous week.

Saudi Arabia:

Pricing on the Saudi Arabia phosphate export market firmed to $555-$580/mt FOB in recent business, sources said, up from the previous $550-$565/mt FOB range.

China:

Sources reported DAP sales in the Asian region that moved the price in China up to the low-$580s/mt FOB. The move was not unexpected. There has been upward pressure on the price for some time, but few, if any, buyers were willing to step up.

Chinese DAP exports for January-May 2021 were up almost 56 percent, to 2.3 million mt from 1.5 million mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main buyers this year were India at 418,000 mt, Thailand at 334,000 mt, Vietnam at 226,000 mt, and Pakistan at 204,000 mt.

May DAP exports were up almost 250 percent, to 931,000 mt from 268,000 mt in May 2020. The main buyers this year were India at 381,000 mt and Pakistan at 102,000 mt.

January-May exports of MAP were also up, to 1.3 million mt from 1 million mt during the same period last year. The top buyers this year were Brazil at 495,000 mt, Australia at 311,000 mt, and Argentina at 156,000 mt.

May exports of MAP were up about 36 percent, to 363,000 mt from 232,000 mt in May 2020. The main buyers this year were Brazil at 222,000 mt and Argentina at 83,000 mt.

India:

Sources said neither GSFC nor NFL received any offers in their respective DAP tenders.

Bangladesh:

The Ministry of Agriculture awarded a total of 850,000 mt in its recent DAP tender. The awards are for a number of companies each offering lots of 22,500 or 40,000 mt.

Sources said the prices awarded in this tender are now too low for the current Chinese market. One international trader noted that the offering firms may have a hard time securing their awarded tonnage.

Offering Company Origin Quantity (‘000 mt) US$/mt CFR Bulk
Bango Traders Ltd China 40.0 585.89
Asia One Trading Co. China 40.0 588.13
Daily Trading Co. Ltd China 40.0 589.16
Direct Trading Co. Ltd China 40.0 589.85
Euro Asia Trading China 40.0 590.53
OF Enterprise China 40.0 593.40
Nazneen Enterprise China 40.0 599.25
Uttara Trade Ltd China 40.0 595.25
Rafiqul Islam China 40.0 598.25
NH Trade International China 40.0 598.40
Mosharaf & Brothers China 40.0 598.67
Araiging Trade International Ltd China 40.0 598.90
Sunsing Ltd. China 40.0 598.90
Afroz Trade Agency China 40.0 599.00
Desh Trading China 40.0 599.10
Bulk Trade International China 40.0 599.20
Asfak Enterprise China 40.0 599.30
Millennium China 40.0 599.40
Rafi Enterprise China 40.0 599.42
Nipa China 22.5 599.90
Alfa Star Agro Ltd China 22.5 599.95
Venus Trade International China 22.5 599.95
Six Season Traders China 22.5 599.95

Brazil:

The Paranagua MAP price showed a slight move up to $745-$760/mt CFR. Sources said demand is strong, but limited availability is pushing prices up. While the port market is showing movement, sources said MAP prices in Rondonopolis held even from last week at $843-$920/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

January-May MAP imports this year were down 13 percent, to 1.4 million mt from 1.7 million mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main suppliers this year were Morocco at 594,000 mt and Russia at 526,000 mt.

May imports were also down about 10 percent, to 322,000 mt from 357,000 mt in May 2020. The top suppliers this year were Russia at 145,000 mt and Morocco at 121,000 mt.

TSP

Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

TSP barges loading from NOLA firmed to $550-$555/st FOB, sources said, up from $545-$550/st FOB reported previously.

Western Cornbelt:

The TSP market was quoted at $570-$580/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up $10-$20/st from last report.

South Central:

TSP pricing out of terminals in the South Central region was pegged at $570-$575/st FOB in late June, up from $550-$570/st FOB at last report.