U.S. Gulf:
NOLA granular urea barges were reported at
$350-$372/st FOB, down from the week-ago $363-$390/st FOB. The higher end of
the range represented first-half May barges, with the lower end for full-month.
Eastern
Cornbelt:
Urea prices edged up to $420-$440/st FOB in the
Eastern Cornbelt, roughly $10/st higher than last report, with the low reported
out of spot Illinois River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, urea market was
quoted firmly in the $435-$440/st FOB range in early May.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea pricing was steady at $420-$440/st
FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and the
high at Port Neal, Iowa.
Northern Plains:
The urea market had reportedly firmed to
$425-$430/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., with delivered tons pegged at $480-$485/st in
North Dakota, up $5-$10/st from last week.
Northeast:
Urea prices were quoted at $435/st FOB
Fairless Hills, Pa., for May-June tons, down $10/st from last report.
Eastern Canada:
Sources reported a broad range of urea
prices in Eastern Canada in early May, but the regional average was virtually
unchanged from last report. The market was pegged at C$580-$640/mt FOB in the
region, depending on location, compared with C$602-$620/mt in late March.
India:
After
some confusion about the final number, sources confirmed that 2.2 million mt of
urea were offered by 13 companies. The lowest prices showed a $21-$23/mt drop
from the RCF tender earlier this year.
Ameropa
offered the lowest prices for East Coast and West Coast deliveries at
$356.99/mt CFR and $358.99/mt CFR, respectively. The Ameropa offers were
weighted to the West Coast, with 153,000 mt to be divided among three ports.
The price-setting East Coast offer from Ameropa was for one cargo of 61,500 mt
to be unloaded at Kakinada.
The
offers by two producers were higher than the levels reported by sources.
Fertiglobe offered 45,000 mt at $353/mt FOB, and PIC/Kuwait offered 40,000 mt
at $348/mt FOB. MMTC countered those prices with $323/mt FOB. Sources said they
did not expect the producers to accept that bid.
|
Offering Company
|
Quantity Offered (mt)
|
US$/mt CFR
|
Discharge Port
|
|
Ameropa
|
61,500
|
356.99
|
Kakinada
L1 ECI
|
|
51,500
|
358.99
|
Mundra
L1 WCI
|
|
51,500
|
358.99
|
Pipavav
|
|
50,000
|
358.99
|
Mundra
|
|
Koch
|
60,000
|
377.00
|
Pipavav
|
|
50,000
|
377.00
|
Mundra
|
|
60,000
|
369.69
|
Gangavaram
|
|
60,000
|
369.69
|
Krishnapatnam
|
|
60,000
|
369.69
|
Vizag-Karaikal
|
|
50,000
|
369.69
|
Kakinada
|
|
Swiss
Singapore
|
46,000
|
363.60
|
Kandla
|
|
46,000
|
363.45
|
Pipavav
|
|
46,000
|
362.05
|
Karaikal
|
|
46,000
|
363.50
|
Mundra
|
|
46,000
|
362.00
|
Gangavaram
|
|
46,000
|
362.10
|
Kamrajar
|
|
46,000
|
363.55
|
Hazira
Adani
|
|
Continental
|
50,000
|
372.50
|
Kandla-Mundra
|
|
50,000
|
374.50
|
Pipavav-Karaikal-Krishnapatnam-Kakinada-Vizag-Gangavaram-Tuna
|
|
Keytrade
|
45,000
|
364.81
|
Kandla
|
|
50,000
|
377.00
|
Paradip
|
|
50,000
|
377.00
|
Kakinada
|
|
Gavilon
|
50,000
|
385.05
|
Krishnapatnam
|
|
50,000
|
387.05
|
Mundra
|
|
Torbert
|
65,000
|
365.75
|
Gangavaram-Krishnapatnam-Karaikal-Kakinada-Pipavav-Tuna
|
|
65,000
|
372.75
|
Mundra-Pipavav-Tuna
|
|
Transglobe
|
50,000
|
363.50
|
Pipavav
|
|
50,000
|
360.90
|
Krishnapatnam
|
|
Samsung
|
45,000
|
367.25
|
Gangavaram
|
|
50,000
|
370.00
|
Krishnapatnam
|
|
45,000
|
371.00
|
Karaikal
|
|
50,000
|
369.60
|
Mundra
|
|
50,000
|
369.70
|
Rozy
|
|
45,000
|
369.50
|
Pipavav
|
|
50,000
|
373.50
|
New
Mangalore
|
|
Dreymoor
|
52,000
|
363.91
|
Pipavav
|
|
52,000
|
361.87
|
Kakinada
|
|
Midgulf
|
63,000
|
370.10
|
Gangavaram-Krishnapatnam-Kakinada
|
|
63,000
|
372.10
|
Mundra-Tuna
|
|
Fertiglobe
|
45,000
|
372.00
|
Kandla-Mundra
|
|
50,000
|
374.00
|
Pipavav-Kakinada-Gangavaram-Tuna
|
|
376.00
|
Karaikal-Krishnapatnam-Vizag
|
| | | |
Of
the 2.2 million mt offered, East Coast offers totaled 968,500 mt; the West
Coast was offered 1.043 million mt; 100,000 mt to either coast; and 85,000 mt
directly from producers. Sources said the emphasis on the West Coast once again
showed an inclination to avoid Chinese product.
The
wide range in pricing ideas can be seen in the levels offered by Gavilon at
$385.05/mt CFR East Coast and $387.05/mt CFR West Coast. The gap between the
average price and the lowest prices of the offers in this tender was also
greater than in the last tender.
In
the MMTC tender that just closed, the average East Coast price was $369.19/mt
CFR and $367.87/mt CFR for the West Coast. The gap between these prices and the
winning prices is $8-$12/mt. In the earlier RCF tender, that gap was $6-$9/mt even
though the settled price was much higher.
Traders said unlike last year at this time, India is not as desperate for tons. Going into the tender, expectations by traders for the final take were for less than 1 million mt to be awarded. Many put the final take at 600,000 mt to 700,000 mt, with a couple of estimates of 900,000 mt. This came up against reports that MMTC was hoping to buy about 1.5 million mt.
It
now appears as if the final take will be even lower than expected. Sources
reported that by the early Friday morning deadline in India, eight companies
accepted the MMTC counterbids based on the Ameropa numbers. MMTC still has to
agree to each of the offers. Some additional tons may still be added to the
final number, but it looks as if MMTC will take only 550,000 mt from this
tender.
|
Offering Company
|
Quantity (mt)
|
Estimated Source
|
|
Ameropa
|
214,500
|
Oman-Ukraine-China
|
|
Dreymoor
|
52,000
|
Ukraine
|
|
Samsung
|
50,000
|
Egypt
|
|
Continental
|
50,000
|
Egypt
|
|
Midgulf
|
47,500
|
Oman
|
|
Swiss
Singapore
|
46,000
|
Indonesia
|
|
Keytrade
|
45,000
|
Oman
|
|
Fertiglobe
|
45,000
|
UAE
|
If this is the final number, MMTC will purchase 25 percent of what was offered. This will represent the second-lowest percentage take in the past two-and-a-half years of urea tenders. The lowest mark was last year, when MMTC took only 6 percent of the offered tons in the July 7 tender. The average take in the previous two years has been 47 percent.
As
the industry waited for the tender results to be announced, sources said
Chinese and Arab producers were digging in their heels against selling too many
tons at prices they considered too low. The netback to China from India’s East
Coast price is put at $332-$338/mt FOB. Producers have said they will not
accept anything under $340/mt FOB. Likewise, the netback to the Arab Gulf is
put at $337-$340/mt FOB at a time when producers are pushing for $350/mt FOB.
However,
for the Chinese producers, the freight market has been much more volatile,
leading to more uncertainty and a desire by traders to push the netback price
even lower. And Arab producers have appeared willing to talk with traders about
deals in the upper-$330s/mt FOB.
|
2020 – India Urea Tenders
|
|
Closing Date
|
Agency
|
Quantity Awarded
(‘000mt)
|
Quantity Offered
(‘000mt)
|
WC Price US$/mt CFR
|
EC Price US$/mt CFR
|
Awards as percentage of
Offers
|
|
3-Apr-20
|
RCF
|
747.00
|
1,654
|
251.90
|
257.65
|
45%
|
|
7-May-20
|
MMTC
|
632.00
|
2,400
|
226.81
|
231.90
|
26%
|
|
24-Jun-20
|
RCF
|
628.00
|
2,090
|
238.45
|
237.35
|
30%
|
|
17-Jul-20
|
MMTC
|
117.50
|
2,060
|
242.50
|
240.75
|
6%
|
|
30-Jul-20
|
MMTC
|
697.55
|
1,630
|
257.70
|
259.50
|
43%
|
|
10-Aug-20
|
RCF
|
952.00
|
1,285
|
289.00
|
290.50
|
74%
|
|
26-Aug-20
|
MMTC
|
1,795.50
|
2,340
|
288.89
|
283.52
|
77%
|
|
9-Oct-20
|
RCF
|
2,184.25
|
3,627
|
279.94
|
279.25
|
60%
|
|
1-Dec-20
|
MMTC
|
1,273
|
2,285
|
284.70
|
286.50
|
56%
|
|
Average
| |
1,003.0
|
2,152.2
|
262.21
|
262.99
|
47%
|
|
Total
| |
9,026.8
|
19,370
| |
|
2021 – India Urea Tenders
|
|
Closing Date
|
Agency
|
Quantity Awarded
(‘000mt)
|
Quantity Offered
(‘000mt)
|
WC Price US$/mt CFR
|
EC Price US$/mt CFR
|
Awards as percentage of
Offers
|
|
22-Mar-21
|
RCF
|
802.5
|
1,926.0
|
380.18
|
379.87
|
42%
|
|
4-May-21
|
MMTC
|
550*
|
2,196.5
|
358.99
|
356.99
|
25%
|
|
* Estimated
|
China:
Sources said stockpiles at the Chinese ports are building, and the estimated results from the MMTC tender will not help that situation. The amount varies from 600,000-800,000 mt ready for export, depending on who is talking. Sources said some of that tonnage may include Iranian product shipped into Chinese warehouses and processed for re-export.
Initial reports out of India indicate MMTC will take only one cargo – most likely 61,5000 mt via Ameropa – in its tender. This is the second tender where the Indians have stepped away from Chinese product. In the earlier tender this year, RCF did not take as many tons from China as expected. That move in March left more urea in reserve in China than the producers wanted.
The netback to China from India, based on the MMTC tender price, is $332-$338/mt FOB at a time when producers are arguing for $340/mt FOB. Some are even suggesting that the freight situation could take the netbacks even lower into the upper-$320s/mt FOB.
Sources
said the dynamics of the market are against the producers, however. The Chinese
domestic season is just about over, with only a few small orders still needed
to be placed. That means production for the rest of May and all of June and
July will be for export.
Some small lots will be sold to regional buyers at higher netbacks, but the only place to move large quantities of urea during the summer is India. The markets in Europe and the Americas are done, again leaving only India as a major buyer for the next few months.
Until the agreements are signed for delivery to India, the price continues to hover in the upper-$330s/mt FOB for prills and low-$340s/mt FOB for granular.
Middle
East:
Arab
Gulf producers made their pricing intention noticeably clear in the two offers
made in the Indian tender. Producers are looking for $350/mt FOB for their
product. Unfortunately for them, deals made this week undercut that position.
Sources
reported a sale at $340/mt FOB from Oman for shipment in the second half of
June. Almost at the same time, traders were reporting small deals at $332/mt
FOB from the area, which fits in with the estimated netbacks from the Indian
tender. Producers pointed to the paper market, which is now showing prices for
May and June at $347.50/mt FOB.
Offers
into India’s West Coast dominated the MMTC tender at 1.04 million mt. At least
three cargoes for the West Coast are expected to come from Yuzhnyy and possibly
one or two from Indonesia, but the bulk of any awards will come from the Arab
Gulf.
Sales
out of Egypt at $350/mt FOB were reported this week. Sources said the most
likely source for the Fertiglobe offer of $353/mt CFR to MMTC was Egypt.
Freight costs, however, put the netback to Egypt in the low-$330s/mt FOB, at best.
Some have even argued that the price needs to be in the $320s/mt FOB to be
competitive in India.
The
paper market is reporting a May price of $345/mt FOB and June at $347.50/mt
FOB.
Indonesia:
After
a dramatic sale of tons to Gavilon at $350/mt FOB last week, Kaltim reportedly
settled on a deal to Swiss Singapore at $325/mt FOB. Sources said the freight
rates could allow the tonnage to be part of an award that Swiss Singapore might
get from India.
The
Indonesian producers have called a number of selling tenders, only to scrap
them when prices did not go their way. The producers would then go into private
talks with traders. The results of these talks led to the dramatically high
$350/mt FOB sale and a more recent deal at $325/mt FOB. Now the talks are
focused on selling at $335/mt FOB.
Sources
said the most recent deal indicated that Kaltim and the other producers are
“motivated” sellers, looking to push their product offshore. One source also noted
the possibility that there is some political interference taking place in the
selling process that makes it look disorganized.
Black
Sea:
Sources
said the netback for any product heading to India under the MMTC tender would
be just under $320/mt FOB. Freight from Yuzhnyy to the Indian West Coast is
pegged in the low-$40s/mt.
Sources
said they could see two or possibly three cargos coming from Yuzhnyy to India
if the right freight rate is found. Sources said Dreymoor for sure has at least
one cargo from the Black Sea in its offer to MMTC. Other traders speculated that
Ameropa also has at least one in its winning offer.
Turkey:
First-quarter
imports of urea in Turkey were down about 21 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, at 763,000 mt from
964,000 mt during the same period in 2020.
The
bulk of this year’s imports came from Oman at 299,000 mt and Egypt at 269,000
mt. Iran sent only 79,000 mt of urea to Turkey this year, compared with 273,000
mt during the same period last year. March imports were up 7.7 percent, to 246,000
mt from 228,000 mt in March 2020, with most of the March 2021 tons coming from
Egypt at 142,00 mt.
Brazil:
Urea
prices tightened at the low end of the scale, to $375-$385/mt CFR at Paranagua.
New business at the port was for small quantities of roughly 5,000 mt in the
mid-$370s/mt CFR. This price comes on the heels of a deal last week that moved
prices into the mid-$380s/mt CFR.
Buyers
inland have been hesitant to purchase until they can assess the impact of the
MMTC/India urea tender. Sources reported little activity by farmers or
blenders.
The
Rondonopolis price showed a wider spread at $450-$535/mt FOB ex-warehouse,
illustrating the mixed emotions buyers seem to have about the market. The mild
enthusiasm for urea was also seen in Sorriso, where prices moved to
$500-$510/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The barter rate for 1 mt of urea in Rondonopolis
remains at 65 bags of corn.
|
Brazil Urea Prices
|
|
Terminal/City
|
US$/mt FOB ex-warehouse
|
|
Week ending 04/30
|
Week Ending 05/07
|
|
Rondonopolis
|
485-510
|
450-535
|
|
Sorriso
|
444-505
|
500-510
|